three tonight w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Florida/ARIZONA under 9
The D-Backs and Marlins rank 1st and 2nd, respectively, in strikeouts in the NL, and with two power pitchers on the mound, there’s likely going to be a lot of whiffs in this game. That’s always good for the under. Don’t even think about Haren’s 4.38 ERA. Rather, concentrate on the differential between his ERA and his xERA (3.48) and feel confident that a positive correction is coming. Fact is, Haren's control, domination and BPV (137) are Elite with a capital "E". The fly in the ointment? Haren is giving up bombs at an unprecedented rate (1.6 HR/9). You can bet that corrects itself as well. Then there’s Ricky Nolasco, who is similar to Haren in that his ERA is higher than it should be. Nolasco’s ERA over his lat five starts (4.91) is a complete illusion, as his xERA is 2.38. Nolasco has been pummeled by an unfavorable hit percentage and strand percentage. Like Haren, he, too, has pinpoint control, as evidenced by his 19 walks in 103.2 innings. Bottom line is that the surface stats don’t reflect this elite-pitching match-up and therefore we get a very beatable number to go under against. Play: Florida/Arizona under 9 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

HOUSTON +1.85 over St. Louis
What we have here is the majors most overvalued team, the Cards, playing the majors most undervalued team, the Astros and the result is an inflated line. Hopefully, the Cards will be favored in all three games so that we can all get some great value over this weekend. Even with such a horrible record, the Astros have won four of six from the Cardinals this season, all at Busch Stadium, and swept St. Louis during a three-game set May 11-13. Bud Norris (75 BPV, 5-0-2-3-4 PQS) has made encouraging back-to-back starts since returning from a DL stint for right biceps tendinitis. Norris has faced the Cardinals twice this season, compiling a 0.69 ERA and 182 BPV (see the bottom of this page for an explanation of BPV and PQS). Adam Wainwright is an elite pitcher. He’s been incredibly consistent with his skills this season (despite a recent rough start against Toronto), posting month-by-month BPV scores of 103, 143 and 110. He can dominate, anytime, anywhere and certainly can do that here. However, this isn’t about playing against Wainwright at all. It’s about taking back +1.85 on the Astros against a team they can beat and that's way overpriced. Incidentally, the Cards have lost three, six of eight and its pen is in bad shape after a three-game set in Colorado while the Astros have won three straight and its pen is in good shape after playing the feeble Pirates. Play: Houston +1.85 (Risking 2 units).

Baltimore +2.15 over TEXAS
We’re going to split this up and play the Orioles in the first five and the full game because of an O’s bullpen that cannot be trusted, especially at this park. Anyway, what is true is that Scott Feldman should not be better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone. Feldman is about as ordinary as they come and even that’s a stretch. He’s won five games all year for a team that’s won 50 games and it’s not because he doesn’t get run support. The Rangers are just 8-9 in games that’s he’s started, so he’s personally lost 25% of all the Rangers losses this year. Feldman is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 7.13. In three recent games vs Houston, Pittsburgh and Seattle, arguably the three worst offenses in baseball, Feldman lasted a combined 18.2 innings and allowed 30 hits for a BAA of .427. On May 20 he faced the O’s and they, too, hit him hard to the tune of 12 hits in six innings. Brian Matusz has made some great strides over his last seven starts. He’s coming off a two-hit, seven inning gem against the Red Sox. In fact, Matusz has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts and right across the board his numbers are better than Feldman’s. Since June 1, Matusz has seen his ERA dip 1.20 runs and that’s a damn good sign. The Orioles are playing much better ball these days too. They’re scoring runs and they should have won three of its last five after blowing a late four-run lead against the Tigers on Tuesday. They beat the Rangers here last night and with a tag like this against Feldman, they’re definitely worth a shot tonight. Play: Baltimore +2.00 in the first five innings (Risking 1 unit). Play: Baltimore +2.15 (Risking 1 unit)

**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
 

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good luck tonight sher ...........was also glad to see w/ match up in the football game tonight .
 

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