Yesterday 2-1-0 +4.30 Units
Last 30 Days 47-41-1 +38.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 131-158-2 +9.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
COLORADO –1½ +1.35 over San Diego
The Padres bubble hasn’t completely burst yet but they’re starting to lose more games and with a bunch of guys on the rack, its chances of gaining some steam here is not good. San Diego has lost three of its last four games, they’ve lost six of 11 with three of those wins coming against the Astros. Wade LeBlanc (32 BPV, 3-3-2-5-3 PQS) has an 81% strand-rate to thank for his 3.10 ERA (see the bottom of this page for an explanation of BPV and PQS). LeBlanc is one of those guys that has hugely benefited from pitching at home but his road numbers tell a different story, In fact, his road ERA is 4.85, which is 2½-runs higher than his home ERA (2.36). His BAA on the road is .300 and now he’ll pitch in a park that always exposes average pitchers and that’s precisely what LeBlanc is. Jason Hammel (93 BPV, 5-3-0-4-4 PQS) has quality starts in six of his last seven starts (the lone exception being against the Red Sox). He is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA at Coors Field this year, and has a 55/14 K/BB over his last ten starts. Hammel gets better as the game progresses and in fact, he’s been as close to unhittable after the fifth inning as any pitcher in the league. Hammel is an elite pitcher that has solidified himself as a groundball pitcher and in this park he has a huge advantage over LeBlanc. Oh, BTW, the Rocks are red-hot too. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +2.13 over PHILADELPHIA
Roy Halliday needs no introduction. The guy has been the major’s toughest pitcher over the last decade and over that stretch he’s missed very few starts. This season he has barely missed a beat and ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.33 ERA, first in complete games with seven, eighth in strikeouts with 118 and first in innings pitched with 139. Thing is, those 139 IP might not be such a good thing. Halliday is coming of a complete game win in the scorching heat over Atlanta this past Monday. He’s also lost seven games this year and that ranks 12th in the NL. It should be noted that Halliday’s fly-ball rate is way up and that he’s given up eight homers in his last five starts after allowing three in his first 13. In a recent game vs the Yanks he allowed 14 fly-ball outs to just seven GB outs. He faced the Reds two starts ago in Cincinnati and allowed 13 hits in eight frames and he allowed 19 fly-outs to just eight GB outs. These are all signs of fatigue and for a guy pitching in a tough park that is 33 years old, has logged more innings than anyone in the game, not to mention close to 2200 career innings, this is a ton of lumber to lay against the NL’s top ranked offense. Travis Wood has very decent numbers and would have much-better numbers over his first two major league starts were it not for his bullpen, who have allowed multiple inherited runners to score in both starts. In those two starts Wood has a BAA of .186 although it did come vs the Mets at Citi Field and against the Cubbies at Wrigley. Still, Wood is a lefty and the Phillies have just two wins in nine attempts vs southpaws at home and they’ve never faced Wood. Overlay. Play: Cincinnati +2.13 (Risking 2 units).
*Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Last 30 Days 47-41-1 +38.82 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 131-158-2 +9.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
COLORADO –1½ +1.35 over San Diego
The Padres bubble hasn’t completely burst yet but they’re starting to lose more games and with a bunch of guys on the rack, its chances of gaining some steam here is not good. San Diego has lost three of its last four games, they’ve lost six of 11 with three of those wins coming against the Astros. Wade LeBlanc (32 BPV, 3-3-2-5-3 PQS) has an 81% strand-rate to thank for his 3.10 ERA (see the bottom of this page for an explanation of BPV and PQS). LeBlanc is one of those guys that has hugely benefited from pitching at home but his road numbers tell a different story, In fact, his road ERA is 4.85, which is 2½-runs higher than his home ERA (2.36). His BAA on the road is .300 and now he’ll pitch in a park that always exposes average pitchers and that’s precisely what LeBlanc is. Jason Hammel (93 BPV, 5-3-0-4-4 PQS) has quality starts in six of his last seven starts (the lone exception being against the Red Sox). He is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA at Coors Field this year, and has a 55/14 K/BB over his last ten starts. Hammel gets better as the game progresses and in fact, he’s been as close to unhittable after the fifth inning as any pitcher in the league. Hammel is an elite pitcher that has solidified himself as a groundball pitcher and in this park he has a huge advantage over LeBlanc. Oh, BTW, the Rocks are red-hot too. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +2.13 over PHILADELPHIA
Roy Halliday needs no introduction. The guy has been the major’s toughest pitcher over the last decade and over that stretch he’s missed very few starts. This season he has barely missed a beat and ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.33 ERA, first in complete games with seven, eighth in strikeouts with 118 and first in innings pitched with 139. Thing is, those 139 IP might not be such a good thing. Halliday is coming of a complete game win in the scorching heat over Atlanta this past Monday. He’s also lost seven games this year and that ranks 12th in the NL. It should be noted that Halliday’s fly-ball rate is way up and that he’s given up eight homers in his last five starts after allowing three in his first 13. In a recent game vs the Yanks he allowed 14 fly-ball outs to just seven GB outs. He faced the Reds two starts ago in Cincinnati and allowed 13 hits in eight frames and he allowed 19 fly-outs to just eight GB outs. These are all signs of fatigue and for a guy pitching in a tough park that is 33 years old, has logged more innings than anyone in the game, not to mention close to 2200 career innings, this is a ton of lumber to lay against the NL’s top ranked offense. Travis Wood has very decent numbers and would have much-better numbers over his first two major league starts were it not for his bullpen, who have allowed multiple inherited runners to score in both starts. In those two starts Wood has a BAA of .186 although it did come vs the Mets at Citi Field and against the Cubbies at Wrigley. Still, Wood is a lefty and the Phillies have just two wins in nine attempts vs southpaws at home and they’ve never faced Wood. Overlay. Play: Cincinnati +2.13 (Risking 2 units).
*Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
