Yesterday 1-1-0 +0.70 Units
Last 30 Days 45-40-0 +36.32 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 132-159-2 +9.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
San Francisco +1.06 over WASHINGTON
The Giants are playing its best ball of the season with five wins in its last six games with only loss over that stretch coming against Stephen Strasburgh. The Giants aren’t just winning but they’re blowing away the opposition as evidenced by its last five wins by scores of 6-1, 6-1, 15-2, 9-3 and 10-5. Let’s also not forget that the Giants scored seven runs on Cy Young favorite, Ubaldo Jiminez one week ago. This team is seeing beach balls right now and they’ll face a very hittable Livan Hernandez. Hernandez is having a tremendous year but is a big risk as a favorite every time he takes the mound. The Giants ripped him apart earlier this year to the tune of seven hits and four runs in five innings and it’s also worth noting that current Giant hitters have 182 career AB’s against Hernandez. In those combined 182 AB’s, the Giant hitters have 64 hits for a BA of .352, an OPS of .977 and a slugging percentage of .588. The Giants will counter with a guy the Nats have never seen, Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has an impressive 15/5 K/BB, and has completed seven innings or more in each of his three starts since his June call-up. It’s only three starts but Bumgarner’s command and groundball tendency (47% GB%) absolutely provide seeds of success. He’s also faced three tough offenses in the Red Sox, the Rockies in Colorado and the Brewers in Milwaukee. In those three starts the opposition hit just .210 off him and his ERA is 2.86. The Giants a pooch here is incorrect. Play: San Francisco +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
DETROIT +1.06 over Minnesota
The Twinkies are looking forward to the break more than any other team. The Twins will most certainly be in this thing after the break but they’re limping into it with four losses in a row and six losses in its last seven. The bullpen is running on fumes right now after the Twins whole staff has allowed six runs or more in each of its last seven games. Carl Pavano is having a strong year thus far and his pinpoint control is the main reason. He’s walked just 17 batters all year in 118 innings but he’s by no means dominant and he’s definitely showing signs of slowing way down. The Jays torched him in his last start and the Rays were very close to knocking him out a few times the start before that. Pavano is a guy who puts the ball in play the Tigers will have a much clearer idea of how to approach him this time around after he beat them in late April. The Tigers are also running good with five wins in a row and seven wins in its last eight, Andrew Oliver has made just three starts and because of one bad one he has a misleading ERA of 5.93. Fact is, he has two good PQS scores (see bottom of page for explanation of PQS and BPV) in his three major-league starts amid indications that misfortune has plagued him. The 4.25 xERA, 35% hit rate, and 63% strand rate testify to his lack of fortune. Also note that Justin Morneau is a no-go and that the Tigers are red-hot while the Twins can’t wait for tomorrow. Play: Detroit +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +2.33 over TAMPA BAY
The price on Justin Masterson is just too sweet to pass up on and it’s for that reason, among a couple others that the Tribe is certainly worth some consideration. Masterson (62 BPV, 2-5-1-4-1 PQS) has alternated PQS-DOM (dominance) and PQS-DIS (disaster) performances in his last four starts, giving him a 41%/29% PQS-DOM/DIS split. His struggles vs. lefties and his lack of control are problematic, but Masterson's skill level and 63% GB% ensure he is capable of dominating in any given outing and with this tag on him he’s a great risk. Jeff Niemann has compiled four consecutive quality starts. However, he continues to benefit from an inflated 82% strand-rate and depressed 24% hit-rate, contributing to a substantial gap between Niemann's 2.65 ERA and 4.07 xERA. Of course Niemann could dominate here and the Rays could go on to win handily. Having said that, this take-back on Masterson in the final game before the break is once again too juicy to pass up on. Big overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.33 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Last 30 Days 45-40-0 +36.32 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 132-159-2 +9.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
San Francisco +1.06 over WASHINGTON
The Giants are playing its best ball of the season with five wins in its last six games with only loss over that stretch coming against Stephen Strasburgh. The Giants aren’t just winning but they’re blowing away the opposition as evidenced by its last five wins by scores of 6-1, 6-1, 15-2, 9-3 and 10-5. Let’s also not forget that the Giants scored seven runs on Cy Young favorite, Ubaldo Jiminez one week ago. This team is seeing beach balls right now and they’ll face a very hittable Livan Hernandez. Hernandez is having a tremendous year but is a big risk as a favorite every time he takes the mound. The Giants ripped him apart earlier this year to the tune of seven hits and four runs in five innings and it’s also worth noting that current Giant hitters have 182 career AB’s against Hernandez. In those combined 182 AB’s, the Giant hitters have 64 hits for a BA of .352, an OPS of .977 and a slugging percentage of .588. The Giants will counter with a guy the Nats have never seen, Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has an impressive 15/5 K/BB, and has completed seven innings or more in each of his three starts since his June call-up. It’s only three starts but Bumgarner’s command and groundball tendency (47% GB%) absolutely provide seeds of success. He’s also faced three tough offenses in the Red Sox, the Rockies in Colorado and the Brewers in Milwaukee. In those three starts the opposition hit just .210 off him and his ERA is 2.86. The Giants a pooch here is incorrect. Play: San Francisco +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
DETROIT +1.06 over Minnesota
The Twinkies are looking forward to the break more than any other team. The Twins will most certainly be in this thing after the break but they’re limping into it with four losses in a row and six losses in its last seven. The bullpen is running on fumes right now after the Twins whole staff has allowed six runs or more in each of its last seven games. Carl Pavano is having a strong year thus far and his pinpoint control is the main reason. He’s walked just 17 batters all year in 118 innings but he’s by no means dominant and he’s definitely showing signs of slowing way down. The Jays torched him in his last start and the Rays were very close to knocking him out a few times the start before that. Pavano is a guy who puts the ball in play the Tigers will have a much clearer idea of how to approach him this time around after he beat them in late April. The Tigers are also running good with five wins in a row and seven wins in its last eight, Andrew Oliver has made just three starts and because of one bad one he has a misleading ERA of 5.93. Fact is, he has two good PQS scores (see bottom of page for explanation of PQS and BPV) in his three major-league starts amid indications that misfortune has plagued him. The 4.25 xERA, 35% hit rate, and 63% strand rate testify to his lack of fortune. Also note that Justin Morneau is a no-go and that the Tigers are red-hot while the Twins can’t wait for tomorrow. Play: Detroit +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +2.33 over TAMPA BAY
The price on Justin Masterson is just too sweet to pass up on and it’s for that reason, among a couple others that the Tribe is certainly worth some consideration. Masterson (62 BPV, 2-5-1-4-1 PQS) has alternated PQS-DOM (dominance) and PQS-DIS (disaster) performances in his last four starts, giving him a 41%/29% PQS-DOM/DIS split. His struggles vs. lefties and his lack of control are problematic, but Masterson's skill level and 63% GB% ensure he is capable of dominating in any given outing and with this tag on him he’s a great risk. Jeff Niemann has compiled four consecutive quality starts. However, he continues to benefit from an inflated 82% strand-rate and depressed 24% hit-rate, contributing to a substantial gap between Niemann's 2.65 ERA and 4.07 xERA. Of course Niemann could dominate here and the Rays could go on to win handily. Having said that, this take-back on Masterson in the final game before the break is once again too juicy to pass up on. Big overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.33 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
