Bob Klapisch covers baseball for The Record in New Jersey and worked at the New York Post and New York Daily News. The author of five books, he was recently voted a top-five columnist in the country by the Associated Press Sports Editors.
Every time we look up, there’s another news flash of a perfect game or no-hitter in progress — each one reminding us why this is 1968 all over again. It’s the year of the pitcher, all right, although this time around it has nothing to do with the height of the mound and everything to do with the rapid disappearance of steroids, amphetamines and the sport’s own market correction.
After years of hosting glorified softball, low-scoring games are now the rule instead of the exception. The National League’s ERA has dropped by more than a half-run since the turn of the millennium. The American League’s ERA has shrunk even more dramatically, by .71 runs over the same 10-year period. As a result, the runs per game average is under 9.00 for the first time since 1992.
How does this impact the All-Star Game? It’s already become a low-scoring affair — no team has scored more than five runs in any of the last four contests — so don’t expect changes Tuesday.
Put it this way: If even Albert Pujols is having an off year with a .308 average, what does it tell you about the state of the hitters’ fraternity? If Alex Rodriguez is on a pace to finish with fewer than 30 HRs for the first time since 1997, it means you’d be smart to side with the pitchers.
Besides, think of the hitters who’ve already pulled out of the game, even further reducing the odds of a run-scoring orgy: Jason Heyward, Jose Reyes and Justin Morneau. And Kevin Youkilis, who’s fifth in the AL with a .981 OPS, didn’t make the cut.
So let’s start with the starting pitchers, Ubaldo Jimenez and David Price, two of the game’s most dominant power arms. The National League is hitting just .198 against Jimenez this year, mostly because he’s averaging 96.3 mph on his fastball — the majors’ top-ranked four-seamer according to Fangraphs.com
Jimenez is fourth in the NL with a 1.05 WHIP, and that's even after a run of turbulence that's resulted in 17 runs over 17 innings. Still, while we're doing the math, remember that other monstrous metric: a 15-1 record that puts him on target for a 30-win season.
Price is almost as efficient, leading the American League with a 2.42 ERA. Really, who in their right mind looks forward to a war with the Rays’ lefthander?
2010 No-hitters
This season has been the year of no-hitters. Take a look back at all of the pitching gems.
He was recently asked about the industry’s tendency toward longer at-bats in 2010. More hitters are waiting until two strikes to start swinging, which, statistically, means the next pitch after a 1-1 count has become the game’s most contested sequence.
Price shook his head and said no way. “I’m all about strike one,” he said. “If I can get that first pitch over, I feel like I’m in control the rest of the at-bat. The longer hitters wait, it’s more of an advantage for me.”
Aside from the collection of power arms on each side, there’s another reason to favor the pitchers: Angel Stadium is distinctly hitter-unfriendly this year. Of the big leagues’ 30 ballparks, it ranks 25th in park factor for runs, 20th for home runs, 28th for doubles and is dead last (30th) for triples.
There are no cheap shots in the Angels’ lair: The ball doesn’t carry well over the wall, line drives in the gaps seem to die and only the speediest runners can turn an extra base hit into a triple. If you love home runs, you had your shot last year when the All-Star Game was held in Yankee Stadium. Even with diminished wind currents this year, the Stadium is ranked second in HR park factor. The Reds’ Great American Ballpark is at the top of the list.
Here’s one more factor, which, although less quantifiable, is no less significant. In a matchup of adrenaline versus adrenaline, skill versus skill, the elite pitcher usually prevails over the elite hitter. Especially in a small-sample, high-leverage situation.
One major league talent evaluator said, “You’ve got pitchers pretty much maxing out for one inning, maybe two, on national TV. They know everyone’s watching them. I’m not saying the hitters don’t try as hard, but pitchers have more at stake in an All-Star Game. They don’t want to get embarrassed."
That desire to succeed has made for some historic performances in the last few years, like Pedro Martinez’s miniature classic in the ’99 Game. Talk about a pitcher turbo-charging his adrenaline: pitching in front of a home crowd in Fenway, Pedro struck out five of the six batters he faced — Barry Larkin, Larry Walker, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell — in two electrifying innings.
It was the first time any pitcher struck out the side to start an All-Star Game, and the performance earned Martinez the All-Star Game MVP award.
While it’s a stretch to think Price or Jimenez can match that, think of what’s nevertheless in store for anyone holding a bat Tuesday: Cliff Lee (15 strikeouts for every walk), and Justin Verlander (the AL’s best fastball, 95.8 mph) and Roy Halladay (who’s already thrown a perfect game this season) and Andy Pettitte (.164 average with runners in scoring position) and Tim Hudson (whose 2.30 ERA is less than half what it was in 2006 when he first joined the Braves).
The list goes on, of course, one reason after another to see hitters as an endangered species. And we’re not just talking about these nine innings in Anaheim. Welcome to 1968.
Every time we look up, there’s another news flash of a perfect game or no-hitter in progress — each one reminding us why this is 1968 all over again. It’s the year of the pitcher, all right, although this time around it has nothing to do with the height of the mound and everything to do with the rapid disappearance of steroids, amphetamines and the sport’s own market correction.
After years of hosting glorified softball, low-scoring games are now the rule instead of the exception. The National League’s ERA has dropped by more than a half-run since the turn of the millennium. The American League’s ERA has shrunk even more dramatically, by .71 runs over the same 10-year period. As a result, the runs per game average is under 9.00 for the first time since 1992.
How does this impact the All-Star Game? It’s already become a low-scoring affair — no team has scored more than five runs in any of the last four contests — so don’t expect changes Tuesday.
Put it this way: If even Albert Pujols is having an off year with a .308 average, what does it tell you about the state of the hitters’ fraternity? If Alex Rodriguez is on a pace to finish with fewer than 30 HRs for the first time since 1997, it means you’d be smart to side with the pitchers.
Besides, think of the hitters who’ve already pulled out of the game, even further reducing the odds of a run-scoring orgy: Jason Heyward, Jose Reyes and Justin Morneau. And Kevin Youkilis, who’s fifth in the AL with a .981 OPS, didn’t make the cut.
So let’s start with the starting pitchers, Ubaldo Jimenez and David Price, two of the game’s most dominant power arms. The National League is hitting just .198 against Jimenez this year, mostly because he’s averaging 96.3 mph on his fastball — the majors’ top-ranked four-seamer according to Fangraphs.com
Jimenez is fourth in the NL with a 1.05 WHIP, and that's even after a run of turbulence that's resulted in 17 runs over 17 innings. Still, while we're doing the math, remember that other monstrous metric: a 15-1 record that puts him on target for a 30-win season.
Price is almost as efficient, leading the American League with a 2.42 ERA. Really, who in their right mind looks forward to a war with the Rays’ lefthander?
2010 No-hittersThis season has been the year of no-hitters. Take a look back at all of the pitching gems.
He was recently asked about the industry’s tendency toward longer at-bats in 2010. More hitters are waiting until two strikes to start swinging, which, statistically, means the next pitch after a 1-1 count has become the game’s most contested sequence.
Price shook his head and said no way. “I’m all about strike one,” he said. “If I can get that first pitch over, I feel like I’m in control the rest of the at-bat. The longer hitters wait, it’s more of an advantage for me.”
Aside from the collection of power arms on each side, there’s another reason to favor the pitchers: Angel Stadium is distinctly hitter-unfriendly this year. Of the big leagues’ 30 ballparks, it ranks 25th in park factor for runs, 20th for home runs, 28th for doubles and is dead last (30th) for triples.
There are no cheap shots in the Angels’ lair: The ball doesn’t carry well over the wall, line drives in the gaps seem to die and only the speediest runners can turn an extra base hit into a triple. If you love home runs, you had your shot last year when the All-Star Game was held in Yankee Stadium. Even with diminished wind currents this year, the Stadium is ranked second in HR park factor. The Reds’ Great American Ballpark is at the top of the list.
Here’s one more factor, which, although less quantifiable, is no less significant. In a matchup of adrenaline versus adrenaline, skill versus skill, the elite pitcher usually prevails over the elite hitter. Especially in a small-sample, high-leverage situation.
One major league talent evaluator said, “You’ve got pitchers pretty much maxing out for one inning, maybe two, on national TV. They know everyone’s watching them. I’m not saying the hitters don’t try as hard, but pitchers have more at stake in an All-Star Game. They don’t want to get embarrassed."
That desire to succeed has made for some historic performances in the last few years, like Pedro Martinez’s miniature classic in the ’99 Game. Talk about a pitcher turbo-charging his adrenaline: pitching in front of a home crowd in Fenway, Pedro struck out five of the six batters he faced — Barry Larkin, Larry Walker, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell — in two electrifying innings.
It was the first time any pitcher struck out the side to start an All-Star Game, and the performance earned Martinez the All-Star Game MVP award.
While it’s a stretch to think Price or Jimenez can match that, think of what’s nevertheless in store for anyone holding a bat Tuesday: Cliff Lee (15 strikeouts for every walk), and Justin Verlander (the AL’s best fastball, 95.8 mph) and Roy Halladay (who’s already thrown a perfect game this season) and Andy Pettitte (.164 average with runners in scoring position) and Tim Hudson (whose 2.30 ERA is less than half what it was in 2006 when he first joined the Braves).
The list goes on, of course, one reason after another to see hitters as an endangered species. And we’re not just talking about these nine innings in Anaheim. Welcome to 1968.
