Yesterday 1-1-0 +0.14 Units
Last 30 Days 38-39-0 +21.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 134-162-2 +7.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
NY Mets +1.19 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito continues to falter and that’s the Barry Zito you should get used to seeing as opposed to the one that opened the year with a 1.49 ERA after six starts. Since then, Zito’s ERA has risen to 3.76, which still looks good on paper but that’s all it is. In the last 31 days, his ERA was 5.79 and that includes one of the luckiest performances in years. In his last start in Milwaukee, Zito gave up two runs in 4.2 innings but he also walked six and allowed seven hits. That’s 13 baserunners in 4.2 innings and he’s fortunate he didn’t give up eight runs or even more. Fact is, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Meanwhile, Jonathon Niese is the Mets hottest pitcher and it’s no fluke. This guy has a wicked curve and a nasty cutter. Over the last seven starts, Niese is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a high GB % is one of the reason’s he’s been so good. Niese has allowed one run or less in four of his past seven starts and he also displays strong control, having walked just 28 batters and whiffing 73 in 89 frames. Zito and the Giants favored over Niese and the Mets is an overlay that should not be overlooked. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.24 over CINCINNATI
We get some outstanding value here on Jason Hammel against Bronson Arroyo and Arroyo’s misleading 9-4 record. First, Hammel is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game and that’s because he gets very little recognition pitching in the shadows of Ublado Jiminez. Fact is, The Rocks have won eight of Hammels’ last nine starts and the only game they lost over that span was in Boston. Hammel has allowed two runs or less in seven of those nine starts with six of those starts coming at hitter friendly Coors. He has one of the best groundball percentages in the business and that should bode well at this park. Hammel got off to a shaky start and therefore his surface stats look average when in fact, he’s anything but. The man can pitch, period. In 53 innings at home, Arroyo has walked 23 and struck out 24. Arroyo has also had the luxury of some favorable match-ups, as he’s faced the Mets in New York, Chicago at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, Cleveland (twice), Oakland, the Pirates three times, San Diego and Houston. His proven 200-IP track record has some value, but mediocre skills, persistent carpal tunnel (wrist) discomfort raise the risk. If you wager on Arroyo here, you’re overpaying big time. Play: Colorado +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.00 over SAN DIEGO
Another sweet line here, as Jon Garland should never be favored over Dan Haren. Haren’s ERA on the year is higher than Garland’s and that’s a complete mirage, as Haren pitches in a tough park while Garland pitches in a park that could make Ernest Borgnine look good. Pay no attention whatsoever to Haren’s 4.36 ERA. Instead focus on an xERA of 3.22 and again, that’s at a tough hitter’s park. Haren has elite control with skills to match. He can dominate a line-up and chances are at this park, that’s precisely what will occur. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. The ERA sure looks sweet, but beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand rate are making his season but the correction in his numbers has already begun to take place and they’ll be even higher as the season progresses. Garland is about as hittable and mediocre of a pitcher as there is in the big leagues and again, the fact that he’s favored over an elite pitcher like Haren is ludicrous. Play Arizona +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 38-39-0 +21.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 134-162-2 +7.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
NY Mets +1.19 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito continues to falter and that’s the Barry Zito you should get used to seeing as opposed to the one that opened the year with a 1.49 ERA after six starts. Since then, Zito’s ERA has risen to 3.76, which still looks good on paper but that’s all it is. In the last 31 days, his ERA was 5.79 and that includes one of the luckiest performances in years. In his last start in Milwaukee, Zito gave up two runs in 4.2 innings but he also walked six and allowed seven hits. That’s 13 baserunners in 4.2 innings and he’s fortunate he didn’t give up eight runs or even more. Fact is, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Meanwhile, Jonathon Niese is the Mets hottest pitcher and it’s no fluke. This guy has a wicked curve and a nasty cutter. Over the last seven starts, Niese is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a high GB % is one of the reason’s he’s been so good. Niese has allowed one run or less in four of his past seven starts and he also displays strong control, having walked just 28 batters and whiffing 73 in 89 frames. Zito and the Giants favored over Niese and the Mets is an overlay that should not be overlooked. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.24 over CINCINNATI
We get some outstanding value here on Jason Hammel against Bronson Arroyo and Arroyo’s misleading 9-4 record. First, Hammel is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game and that’s because he gets very little recognition pitching in the shadows of Ublado Jiminez. Fact is, The Rocks have won eight of Hammels’ last nine starts and the only game they lost over that span was in Boston. Hammel has allowed two runs or less in seven of those nine starts with six of those starts coming at hitter friendly Coors. He has one of the best groundball percentages in the business and that should bode well at this park. Hammel got off to a shaky start and therefore his surface stats look average when in fact, he’s anything but. The man can pitch, period. In 53 innings at home, Arroyo has walked 23 and struck out 24. Arroyo has also had the luxury of some favorable match-ups, as he’s faced the Mets in New York, Chicago at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, Cleveland (twice), Oakland, the Pirates three times, San Diego and Houston. His proven 200-IP track record has some value, but mediocre skills, persistent carpal tunnel (wrist) discomfort raise the risk. If you wager on Arroyo here, you’re overpaying big time. Play: Colorado +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.00 over SAN DIEGO
Another sweet line here, as Jon Garland should never be favored over Dan Haren. Haren’s ERA on the year is higher than Garland’s and that’s a complete mirage, as Haren pitches in a tough park while Garland pitches in a park that could make Ernest Borgnine look good. Pay no attention whatsoever to Haren’s 4.36 ERA. Instead focus on an xERA of 3.22 and again, that’s at a tough hitter’s park. Haren has elite control with skills to match. He can dominate a line-up and chances are at this park, that’s precisely what will occur. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. The ERA sure looks sweet, but beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand rate are making his season but the correction in his numbers has already begun to take place and they’ll be even higher as the season progresses. Garland is about as hittable and mediocre of a pitcher as there is in the big leagues and again, the fact that he’s favored over an elite pitcher like Haren is ludicrous. Play Arizona +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
