Yesterday 0 3 0 -6.00 Units
Last 30 Days 36 41 0 +13.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 134 165 2 +1.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.09 over PITTSBURGH
Well, when the chalk goes 12-3 like it did last night, chances are this section is not going to do very good and that’s precisely what happened. The only dogs to win last night were the Brewers, Indians and A’s. What’s incredible is that the Astros are a pooch against the Pirates and win or lose here, the Astros are simply a must play. Bud Norris is 2-6 with a 5.97 ERA and those ugly looking stats are the reason why the Astros are the underdog here. Not to worry. Norris can pitch and his stock is way undervalued so buy now. Norris had started to show some signs of his potential in May, maintaining a significant strikeout rate and improving on his control and GB rate (43%). These improvements are hidden behind a season ERA of 5.97, more than 1.5 points higher than his xERA (4.14). Overall, Norris has 69 K's in 63 IP and that's a very impressive number. The Astros are 20-19 over its last 39 games while the Pirates may not win 50 games this year. Russ Ohlendorf has been sharp in three straight starts but don’t get baited by that. Prior to that he allowed 15 runs in 16 innings and in his career he’s 0-6 vs the Astros with an ERA of 6.55. Anyway, the bottom line is that the Astros are the superior team with the superior pitcher and anytime you can take back anything against a team that wins about three out of every 10 games you should strongly consider it. Play: Houston +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.68 over Colorado
Edinson Volquez makes his first major league start in over a year after Tommy John surgery but we’ve seen a whole slew of pitchers return from TJ surgery and look better than new. Volquez will be pumped right up and so will the players and fans alike. In four minor-league rehab starts leading up to this, Volquez completely dominated. In fact, he went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA after allowing just 14 hits in 31 IP for a BAA of .135. In his last outing on July 9, he threw a one-hitter in seven frames. This guy is a proven pitcher with outstanding stuff and he certainly looks ready. You should probably be more concerned with Jorge De La Rosa than with Volquez. De La Rosa is fresh off the DL with just one start. In that start just before the break he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings at home against the Padres. De La Rosa is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA in eight career games against the Reds and when you combine that with his shaky start off the DL, you have a very fragile pitcher going out there. The Reds faced a tough pitcher in Jason Hammel last night and won 3-2. However, they were in a position to break it wide open a few times and just missed. De La Rosa won’t be as fortunate. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.68 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –1½ +1.26 over BALTIMORE
You could lay the 25¢ if you like and it sure wouldn’t be a bad bet based on the starters, bullpens and everything else. We’ll lay the 1½-runs and here’s why: Jeremy Guthrie is coming off back-to-back disasters in which he was removed after four innings in each, allowing 10 earned runs in eight IP, with a 2/8 K/BB. The erosion of Guthrie's skills was underway prior to the last two starts, as his 11/16 K/BB over his last five starts suggests. As a fly-ball pitcher (42% FB%), Guthrie is HR-prone (1.2 hr/9), which does not bode well when facing the game's top HR-hitting offense in Camden Yards, a park conducive to the bomb. Brandon Morrow is an enigma for sure. This guy is hugely talented but too often comes up with a bad game. He was rocked in his last game against the Red Sox and has now pitched in consecutive games against Boston and the Yanks. Even after Saturday's poor showing, Morrow has a 3.06 ERA and 46/15 K/BB in his last eight starts (50 innings). Morrow is too good to be showing such mediocre stats (overall a 5-6 record with a 4.86 ERA) and now he takes a big step down in class when facing these beatable O’s. This guy needs a win on the road and it says here he gets it in dominating fashion. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 36 41 0 +13.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 134 165 2 +1.96 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.09 over PITTSBURGH
Well, when the chalk goes 12-3 like it did last night, chances are this section is not going to do very good and that’s precisely what happened. The only dogs to win last night were the Brewers, Indians and A’s. What’s incredible is that the Astros are a pooch against the Pirates and win or lose here, the Astros are simply a must play. Bud Norris is 2-6 with a 5.97 ERA and those ugly looking stats are the reason why the Astros are the underdog here. Not to worry. Norris can pitch and his stock is way undervalued so buy now. Norris had started to show some signs of his potential in May, maintaining a significant strikeout rate and improving on his control and GB rate (43%). These improvements are hidden behind a season ERA of 5.97, more than 1.5 points higher than his xERA (4.14). Overall, Norris has 69 K's in 63 IP and that's a very impressive number. The Astros are 20-19 over its last 39 games while the Pirates may not win 50 games this year. Russ Ohlendorf has been sharp in three straight starts but don’t get baited by that. Prior to that he allowed 15 runs in 16 innings and in his career he’s 0-6 vs the Astros with an ERA of 6.55. Anyway, the bottom line is that the Astros are the superior team with the superior pitcher and anytime you can take back anything against a team that wins about three out of every 10 games you should strongly consider it. Play: Houston +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.68 over Colorado
Edinson Volquez makes his first major league start in over a year after Tommy John surgery but we’ve seen a whole slew of pitchers return from TJ surgery and look better than new. Volquez will be pumped right up and so will the players and fans alike. In four minor-league rehab starts leading up to this, Volquez completely dominated. In fact, he went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA after allowing just 14 hits in 31 IP for a BAA of .135. In his last outing on July 9, he threw a one-hitter in seven frames. This guy is a proven pitcher with outstanding stuff and he certainly looks ready. You should probably be more concerned with Jorge De La Rosa than with Volquez. De La Rosa is fresh off the DL with just one start. In that start just before the break he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings at home against the Padres. De La Rosa is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA in eight career games against the Reds and when you combine that with his shaky start off the DL, you have a very fragile pitcher going out there. The Reds faced a tough pitcher in Jason Hammel last night and won 3-2. However, they were in a position to break it wide open a few times and just missed. De La Rosa won’t be as fortunate. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.68 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –1½ +1.26 over BALTIMORE
You could lay the 25¢ if you like and it sure wouldn’t be a bad bet based on the starters, bullpens and everything else. We’ll lay the 1½-runs and here’s why: Jeremy Guthrie is coming off back-to-back disasters in which he was removed after four innings in each, allowing 10 earned runs in eight IP, with a 2/8 K/BB. The erosion of Guthrie's skills was underway prior to the last two starts, as his 11/16 K/BB over his last five starts suggests. As a fly-ball pitcher (42% FB%), Guthrie is HR-prone (1.2 hr/9), which does not bode well when facing the game's top HR-hitting offense in Camden Yards, a park conducive to the bomb. Brandon Morrow is an enigma for sure. This guy is hugely talented but too often comes up with a bad game. He was rocked in his last game against the Red Sox and has now pitched in consecutive games against Boston and the Yanks. Even after Saturday's poor showing, Morrow has a 3.06 ERA and 46/15 K/BB in his last eight starts (50 innings). Morrow is too good to be showing such mediocre stats (overall a 5-6 record with a 4.86 ERA) and now he takes a big step down in class when facing these beatable O’s. This guy needs a win on the road and it says here he gets it in dominating fashion. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
