All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
San Francisco +1.02 over NY METS http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
The Giants are dominating this four-game series and there’s no reason to expect that to stop here. First, the Mets are seeing BB’s and when you’re in an offensive funk, snapping out of it becomes more difficult which each passing game. The Mets have batted .174 in losing the first three games of this series and they were held scoreless in the first 24 innings of this series. Jonathan Sanchez has had trouble in two of his last three starts but so what. He’s allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts this season and he’s been outstanding at home. In fact, he’s allowed just 38 hits in 53 IP at home for a BAA of .200. He also has struck out 104 batters in 103 innings and faces a Mets team that has dropped six of seven and that’s still on its All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Giants are red-hot with five straight victories and 10 wins in its last 12 games. Over that stretch of a dozen games, the Giants lead the majors with 78 runs scored while the Mets have scored 38 times over that same stretch, which is 40 less runs than the Giants. Johan Santana is considered to be the Mets ace by many and he does have the stats to back that up but he’s also been one of the luckiest pitchers in the business. Santana has a strand-rate of 77.6% and that’s an incredibly high number that he simply can’t sustain. His groundball rate is also way down at 34% and those are two red flags to be sure. Santana’s 2.98 ERA looks damn sweet until you look at the 4.69 xERA that is hiding behind it. Santana's strikeout rate is declining, his walks are increasing and everything about him is a mirage and there are big corrections forthcoming in his numbers. Hopefully it starts here. Play: San Francisco +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.51 over Colorado http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
After losing nine straight to the Rockies, the Reds have won the first two games of this series with the Rockies scoring a total of three runs in the first two games. Now the Rocks will have to face a pitcher they’ve never seen and that’s not a favorable situation, especially when said pitcher is going good. Travis Wood is coming off a complete game, one-hitter in Philadelphia. In three starts, covering 20.2 innings, Wood has allowed just nine hits, walked just five and struck out 17. He has a WHIP of 0.68, a BAA of 1.27 and an ERA of 2.17. It’s a small sample size but one can’t argue his effectiveness thus far and he catches the Rocks at a very good time. Meanwhile, the Reds have seen plenty of Aaron Cook. In fact, Reds hitters have a combined 76 AB’s against Cook and they’re hitting .395 off him. The foursome of Rolen, Cabrera, Votto and Phillips has 20 hits in 49 AB’s against Cook. Cook is also 0-5 on the road with an ERA of 6.70 and a BAA of .314. Overall, he’s walked 40 and struck out 44. In 17 starts this season, Cook has three wins. Frankly, there’s nothing to like about Cook and facing the Reds in Cincinnati does nothing to change that. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.59 over ATLANTAhttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
If Dave Bush and Randy Wolf can beat Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson there’s no reason why Manny Parra can’t beat Derek Lowe. In fact, this pitching match-up is by far the most favorable of them all. Manny Parra is very capable of a dominating performance. This guy is so close (yet so far) from becoming an elite pitcher and now he’ll face a Braves club that is under .500 against southpaws. Parra had a 4.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in June, marks that have kept some backers on the sideline. But an elevated 37% hit rate had a lot to do with his high WHIP. His base skills remind us why Parra was and still is a legit breakout candidate. He has a 47 % GB rate, which is an outstanding number and he also displays good control with his four pitches. Parra uses a split-fingered fastball, a change and curve (to go along with a fastball) and now he’s developing a fifth pitch, the slider to add to his repertoire. The Braves have scored just eight runs in the first three games of this set while the Brewers have scored 15 the last two days. In addition, Milwaukee has won five of its last six and will face the very beatable Lowe in this one. Lowe’s numbers get worse and worse as the game progresses. He’s awful the second time through line-ups and his numbers fall into a black hole (6.29 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP) the third time through. Lowe is no youngster (he’s 37) and his skills continue to decline. His ground ball rate is declining, his walks are increasing and his strikeouts are declining as well. Those are all signs of age catching up to him, as we’ve actually seen a groundball decline in each of the last four seasons with this year being his lowest. Lowe is in the midst of a four-year 60 million dollar contract and given the chance, the Braves would dump this guy in a heartbeat. He could be in a rough second half. Play: Milwaukee +1.59 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.00 over MINNESOTA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
Well, you can really never be sure how Freddy Garcia will perform but this has absolutely nothing to do with him. Instead, this one is all about not laying a single penny to wager against Nick Blackburn and before we explain, note that the South Side makes contact more than any team in the league. This past March, the Twins locked up Nick Blackburn with a four-year, $14 million contract. The deal covers his final pre-arbitration season in 2010, his three arbitration years and includes an $8 million option for 2014, Blackburn’s first season of free agent eligibility. We mention that because the only reason he’s not in the minors is that ridiculous contract. Blackburn established himself as a solid rotation cog over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, using surgical command (1.81 BB/9) to compensate for a paltry punch out rate (4.4 K/9). His ERA over that period was 4.38, and his xERA was 4.52. In 2010, The Twins expected more of the same from Blackburn. Instead, the 28-year-old has been battered for a 6.40 ERA in 97 innings. That’s the second-highest mark among qualified starters. Granted, Blackburn’s ERA does overstate the depth of his struggles — his BABIP is .324 (.314 career average), his rate of stranding base runners is 66.2% and his home run per fly ball rate is 14.8% (10.7%). But even so, his XERA has ballooned to 5.44. Blackburn’s already-low K rate has nosedived into Kirk Rueter-esque territory. He’s striking out just 3.15 batters per nine frames, by far the lowest among qualified starters (Aaron Cook is second, at 3.97 K/9). Nick’s swinging strike rate, 6.5% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009, sits at an MLB-low 2.9% (Rodrigo Lopez is next, at four percent; the MLB average is 8-9%). His overall contact rate has spiked, from 86.7% in ’08 and 88.1% in ’09 to a MLB-high 93.7% this season. Fact is, Blackburn seldom misses a bat and his walks are increasing. He’s the least appealing favorite in all of baseball and he’s an instant fade when he’s the chalk. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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