Yesterday 0 4 0 -8.00 Units
Last 30 Days 35 43 0 +8.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 135 171 2 -6.68 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
BALTIMORE +1.70 over Tampa Bay
The Rays are coming off a series in New York in which they played in front of a packed house in an exciting atmosphere with lots on the line. They won once and in the three games they allowed 19 runs. They also scored 19 but they scored 10 in one game. Now they’ll go from one extreme to the other when they travel to play the AL’s worst team and they could be in for a big letdown here. Wade Davis is 6-9 with an ERA of 4.69. On the road his ERA is 5.50 with a BAA of .297. Davis is inconsistent and unreliable. He can be way off on his control, as we’ve seen on many occasions this year. Over his last four starts he’s walked 12 and struck out 11. In Davis’s first prolonged major-league exposure, he’s now showing signs of laboring badly. It was indeed 22-year-old Chris Tillman called up by the Orioles to start in the place of Kevin Millwood. Tillman promptly spoiled the Texas debut of Cliff Lee by hurling 7 1/3 IP, yielding only two hits and an unearned run while walking one and striking out three. Even if Millwood can return after the All-Star Break, there is plenty of opportunity for Tillman, who was dominant in Triple-A, to stick in the rotation. The situation is favorable for the Orioles and with a sweet tag like this on them, they’re most certainly worth a look. Play: Baltimore +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1 +1.12 over SEATTLE
Some of you may not be able to lay one run because it’s not offered at all sportsbooks. With that being the case, you can lay the 11¢ and feel pretty confident about it. The M’s are 1-8 over its last nine home games. Ryan Rowland-Smith has occupied a rotation slot for the bulk of the season with 16 starts among his 19 appearances, despite abysmal stats and skills. The M’s could have called up David Pauley a long time ago but chose not to because Pauley may not be a better option than Smith. Pauley is a journeyman that has never been able to stick for an extended period of time at this level. He’s been given the chance but a BAA in the majors of .353 and an ERA of 7.57 has squashed any hopes. The South Side will turn the ball over to Daniel Hudson. Hudson had a whirlwind season in '09 that saw him pitch on five levels, including 18 innings with Chicago (3.38 ERA). He's a tall and projectable pitcher who possesses an ideal frame and a solid pitch mix. Hudson sits in the low 90s with his fastball and he reaches 95-96 mph on occasion. His secondary offerings include a slider, slow curveball, and changeup. He releases the ball from a 3/4 slot that he sometimes has difficulty repeating. He can leave his breaking balls flat as a result. A deceptive delivery enhances his offerings while his quick arm speed and action provide ample movement to his repertoire. Hudson’s chances of success at this park are much better than the chances of career minor-leaguer, David Pauley. Play: Chicago –1 +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –1½ +1.19 over KANSAS CITY
The Jays have won three in a row and yesterday they exploded for 15 hits and 10 runs. Yunel Escobar is batting second in the line-up and all he’s done is go 6-13 with five RBI’s and three runs scored in three games. Brett Cecil is rock solid. Cecil is coming off back-to-back gems against the Yanks and Twins in which he allowed just four hits and one run in both games. Cecil has tantalizing numbers that lie under his surface stats that include a BABIP of just .269, IFFB% (infield fly balls) of 11%, and a groundball rate of 45%. Cecil is no flash in the pan either. He’s a long-term asset that is only getting better. Meanwhile, Kyle Davies is coming off a decent stretch of three games in which he gave up eight runs combined in 20.2 frames. That’s nice, it really is, but it can’t and will not last. Davies is a disaster waiting to happen and the chances of him making four adequate starts in a row are low. Davies has a deserving ERA of 5.57, which is right on par with his career ERA of 5.55. The guy is and always will be a stiff with very average stuff. His career ERA and xERA make him virtually unplayable and it’s also worth noting that the Royals were whacked by the O’s over the weekend and has now lost six straight. They’ve allowed five runs or more in all six games. The Jays shot out of the gate after the break with three straight wins and they’re the forgotten team in the AL but they’re not far off (5 games back of the Red Sox). Play: Toronto –1½ +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.56 over CHICAGO
Alert!! Do not trust the Cubbies as a big favorite, as you will go broke fast. What we have here is two pitchers heading in opposite directions and it’s not in the Cubs favor. Wandy Rodriguez got off to a horrible start but has turned the corner and could be in for a big second half. Lest we forget that Rodriguez had elite second half numbers a year ago and he’s trending that way again. Over the last month, Rodriguez has an ERA of 3.41 and over his last four games covering 26 innings, he’s allowed five runs. Over that same stretch he’s struck out 25 and walked just six. He also has a solid groundball rate of 47% and is a truly undervalued pitcher. Carlos Silva is having the time of his life this year. Nobody could have predicted a 9-3 record with a 3.45 ERA when you consider a career ERA of 4.62 and a career BAA of .300 in seven previous years and over 1200 career IP. Having said that, Silva has allowed 21 hits over his last 15 frames for a BAA of .350. Yeah, he could have a good game but at this price he’s not worth the risk and at this price the Cubbies are never worth the risk. Overlay. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.15 over ST. LOUIS
Brad Hawksworth is not worthy of being a favorite over anyone and you can double that against this potentially wicked offense. Any success Hawksworth has had is a complete fluke. Last season his strand rate was 83% and that’s a ridiculous number. This year it’s lower but still high at 74%. Hawksworth has allowed 70 hits in 53 frames for a BAA of .353 and 15% of his flyballs allowed have left the yard. Hawksworth has a 1.73 WHIP and everything about this guy screams stay away. Kyle Kendrick is no bargain either but he’s not the one laying juice. Furthermore, some guys just have success against certain teams and there’s really no explanation as to why. It’s just one of those quirky things about this game. Anyway, in his career, Kendrick is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA against the Cards including one game this year in which he went seven full and didn’t allow a single run. Play: Philadelphia +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 35 43 0 +8.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 135 171 2 -6.68 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
BALTIMORE +1.70 over Tampa Bay
The Rays are coming off a series in New York in which they played in front of a packed house in an exciting atmosphere with lots on the line. They won once and in the three games they allowed 19 runs. They also scored 19 but they scored 10 in one game. Now they’ll go from one extreme to the other when they travel to play the AL’s worst team and they could be in for a big letdown here. Wade Davis is 6-9 with an ERA of 4.69. On the road his ERA is 5.50 with a BAA of .297. Davis is inconsistent and unreliable. He can be way off on his control, as we’ve seen on many occasions this year. Over his last four starts he’s walked 12 and struck out 11. In Davis’s first prolonged major-league exposure, he’s now showing signs of laboring badly. It was indeed 22-year-old Chris Tillman called up by the Orioles to start in the place of Kevin Millwood. Tillman promptly spoiled the Texas debut of Cliff Lee by hurling 7 1/3 IP, yielding only two hits and an unearned run while walking one and striking out three. Even if Millwood can return after the All-Star Break, there is plenty of opportunity for Tillman, who was dominant in Triple-A, to stick in the rotation. The situation is favorable for the Orioles and with a sweet tag like this on them, they’re most certainly worth a look. Play: Baltimore +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1 +1.12 over SEATTLE
Some of you may not be able to lay one run because it’s not offered at all sportsbooks. With that being the case, you can lay the 11¢ and feel pretty confident about it. The M’s are 1-8 over its last nine home games. Ryan Rowland-Smith has occupied a rotation slot for the bulk of the season with 16 starts among his 19 appearances, despite abysmal stats and skills. The M’s could have called up David Pauley a long time ago but chose not to because Pauley may not be a better option than Smith. Pauley is a journeyman that has never been able to stick for an extended period of time at this level. He’s been given the chance but a BAA in the majors of .353 and an ERA of 7.57 has squashed any hopes. The South Side will turn the ball over to Daniel Hudson. Hudson had a whirlwind season in '09 that saw him pitch on five levels, including 18 innings with Chicago (3.38 ERA). He's a tall and projectable pitcher who possesses an ideal frame and a solid pitch mix. Hudson sits in the low 90s with his fastball and he reaches 95-96 mph on occasion. His secondary offerings include a slider, slow curveball, and changeup. He releases the ball from a 3/4 slot that he sometimes has difficulty repeating. He can leave his breaking balls flat as a result. A deceptive delivery enhances his offerings while his quick arm speed and action provide ample movement to his repertoire. Hudson’s chances of success at this park are much better than the chances of career minor-leaguer, David Pauley. Play: Chicago –1 +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –1½ +1.19 over KANSAS CITY
The Jays have won three in a row and yesterday they exploded for 15 hits and 10 runs. Yunel Escobar is batting second in the line-up and all he’s done is go 6-13 with five RBI’s and three runs scored in three games. Brett Cecil is rock solid. Cecil is coming off back-to-back gems against the Yanks and Twins in which he allowed just four hits and one run in both games. Cecil has tantalizing numbers that lie under his surface stats that include a BABIP of just .269, IFFB% (infield fly balls) of 11%, and a groundball rate of 45%. Cecil is no flash in the pan either. He’s a long-term asset that is only getting better. Meanwhile, Kyle Davies is coming off a decent stretch of three games in which he gave up eight runs combined in 20.2 frames. That’s nice, it really is, but it can’t and will not last. Davies is a disaster waiting to happen and the chances of him making four adequate starts in a row are low. Davies has a deserving ERA of 5.57, which is right on par with his career ERA of 5.55. The guy is and always will be a stiff with very average stuff. His career ERA and xERA make him virtually unplayable and it’s also worth noting that the Royals were whacked by the O’s over the weekend and has now lost six straight. They’ve allowed five runs or more in all six games. The Jays shot out of the gate after the break with three straight wins and they’re the forgotten team in the AL but they’re not far off (5 games back of the Red Sox). Play: Toronto –1½ +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.56 over CHICAGO
Alert!! Do not trust the Cubbies as a big favorite, as you will go broke fast. What we have here is two pitchers heading in opposite directions and it’s not in the Cubs favor. Wandy Rodriguez got off to a horrible start but has turned the corner and could be in for a big second half. Lest we forget that Rodriguez had elite second half numbers a year ago and he’s trending that way again. Over the last month, Rodriguez has an ERA of 3.41 and over his last four games covering 26 innings, he’s allowed five runs. Over that same stretch he’s struck out 25 and walked just six. He also has a solid groundball rate of 47% and is a truly undervalued pitcher. Carlos Silva is having the time of his life this year. Nobody could have predicted a 9-3 record with a 3.45 ERA when you consider a career ERA of 4.62 and a career BAA of .300 in seven previous years and over 1200 career IP. Having said that, Silva has allowed 21 hits over his last 15 frames for a BAA of .350. Yeah, he could have a good game but at this price he’s not worth the risk and at this price the Cubbies are never worth the risk. Overlay. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.15 over ST. LOUIS
Brad Hawksworth is not worthy of being a favorite over anyone and you can double that against this potentially wicked offense. Any success Hawksworth has had is a complete fluke. Last season his strand rate was 83% and that’s a ridiculous number. This year it’s lower but still high at 74%. Hawksworth has allowed 70 hits in 53 frames for a BAA of .353 and 15% of his flyballs allowed have left the yard. Hawksworth has a 1.73 WHIP and everything about this guy screams stay away. Kyle Kendrick is no bargain either but he’s not the one laying juice. Furthermore, some guys just have success against certain teams and there’s really no explanation as to why. It’s just one of those quirky things about this game. Anyway, in his career, Kendrick is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA against the Cards including one game this year in which he went seven full and didn’t allow a single run. Play: Philadelphia +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
