four tonight w/analysis

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Yesterday 2-3-0 -0.64 Units
Last 30 Days 36-45-0 +7.36 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 137-174-2 -7.32 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +2.26 over CHICAGO
Let’s just say that this line is absolutely ridiculous. Yeah the Cubs can win and yeah they have a big edge on the hill but so what. If the better pitcher won every time out we’d all be rich. Fact is, the Cubbies are a way below average team and can lose to anyone. Hell, they’ve dropped something like 10 of 12 games to the Pirates this year. The Astros are picking it up and have been doing so for the better part of the last six weeks. They’re 22-21 over its last 43 games and overall they just have better players on its club than the Cubbies do. Wesley Wright gets the call up from the minors but he’s no stranger to the majors. He has dominating stuff but his command is a serious problem. In 110 major league innings he’s struck out 111 but he’s walked 62. If he can hit the strike zone he could have a strong game. Ryan Dempster is tough and he’s reliable. He really needs no introduction, as he’ll give the Cubbies a chance to win about 90% of the time. Incidentally, when Dempster starts the Cubs are 8-11 on the year and that’s because the Cubs find ways to lose. So, this has nothing to do with playing against Dempster and everything to do with playing against the Cubs as a sick favorite of –2.43. Play Houston +2.26 (Risking 2 units).

Cleveland +1.69 over MINNESOTA
Kevin Slowey a 9-5 favorite over the hot Indians? Another big overlay because Slowey is one of the 10 most hittable pitchers in the game and is not deserving of this billing. Furthermore, he’s been torched in five of his last six starts and his ERA over that stretch is 9.11. To break it down even more, Slowey’s batted balls are probably the most disturbing in all of baseball. He has a groundball rate of 27% and a line drive rate of 22%. Of the 315 hitters that have put the ball in play, 16 have gone yard and only 7% (20 batters) of the 315 have hit the ball softly. His hit-ball stats look like this:
Hard% Med% Soft% Hard Med Soft HR
2009 30% 67% 3% 77 171 8 15
2010 36% 57% 7% 109 170 20 16

Fact is, Slowey is batting practice out there. Meanwhile the Indians have reeled off five wins in a row and this is its second five–game winning streak in less than a month. The Indians have hit .311 and averaged 6.2 runs during its winning streak. Justin Masterson has been a flammable tease for most of the season. That said, he has shown some significant monthly control gains this year. Masterson's approach remains a work-in-progress but there's still a lot of upside here, as he has terrific stuff and he surely has room for error against Slowey. Play: Cleveland +1.69 (Risking 2 units).

ST. LOUIS –1½ +1.16 over Philadelphia
The Cards are red-hot while the Phillies continue to struggle miserably and when you throw in this huge pitching mismatch it only makes sense to lay the runs. Jamie Moyer’s age may be finally catching up to him, as he’s allowed 12 hits and 13 runs over his last two starts covering just 8.1 innings. Over that same stretch of two games, he’s allowed 25 flyballs while inducing just eight groundouts and that’s a significant stat. The whole key against Moyer is to get guys on base because when he works from the stretch he’s absolutely brutal. The Phillies have dropped five of its last six games and that includes losing three of four to the Bad News Cubs. Meanwhile, the Cards have won six in a row and they’re seeing beach balls. They’ve scored 36 runs over that six game win streak and that includes beating up Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. Matt Holliday took the night off yesterday, yet the Cards still pounded out eight runs and four jacks. Keep your eye on an outstanding rookie in the line-up by the name of Jon Jay. This guy gets on base and looks incredibly comfortable at the plate. Chris Carpenter had a couple of rough starts prior to his last game but the skills are still elite and he was back to his old self last game out when he dominated the Dodgers. Carpenter has great numbers once again and even better numbers when he pitches at home. Blowout. Play: St. Louis –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).

KANSAS CITY +1.11 over Toronto
Jesse Litsch favored on the road is simply incorrect. Here’s a guy that is 0-4 with an ERA of 6.54 and in 31.2 innings has 10 walks and just 12 K’s. Litsch also has surrendered six bombs and in this park that caters to the gaps, Litsch could get into some serious trouble. Then there’s last night’s game. There are losses and then there are ugly losses and that’s precisely what happened last night. The Jays were 3-16 with men in scoring position. They had second and third with one out in the fourth when a flyball to center looked like a sure sac-fly. Instead, Adam Lind tagged and attempted to go to third when the centerfielder gunned him down before the run scored. In the 10th inning the Jays had one run in and no outs with men on first and third and didn’t score again and that same scenario occurred in the seventh. This was an ugly loss indeed and those tend to carry over. Anthony Lerew is an athletic pitcher who was once a top prospect in the Braves system but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the '07 and '08 seasons. Atlanta released him in March '09 and he quickly signed with the Royals. He earned two starts as a September call-up later that year. Lerew has a nice assortment of pitches, including a solid changeup that features splitter-like action. He can run his fastball into the 87-93 mph range and mix in a slider as well. Lerew generally keeps the ball down and induces plenty of groundballs. He’s only walked seven batters while striking out 16 in just 25 innings and in no way is he the inferior pitcher in this game. The Jays have dropped 15 of its last 22 on the road and do not warrant being a favorite in this game. Wrong side favored. Play: Kansas City +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Good luck sherwood, any thoughts on the totals in two of the games you took? I like the over in stl-phi and clev-minn?
 

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always enjoy your write-ups.....love the clevelend play was on them last night and they are being very undervalued right now.

Also you have to take houston at that price but I think the cubbies get it done, but would never lay that juice
 

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Are these your write ups?

***********************************

The answer to your Question is YES.

and let's just leave it at that !

Thank You
Betallsports

RX Mod Team
 
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RX Hall of Famer
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pretty sure from what I remember sherwood is a writer for a website with randel......reguardless sherwood post his picks consistently and doesn't tout any website.
 

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