Fantasy Football News 2010/2011

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hacheman@therx.com
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S-Jax's Caution Flags
Steven Jackson is easily among the five best running backs in football. He's simultaneously one of the most physical runners around and also one of the best receivers out of the backfield. He is not part of any kind of committee and you've never even heard of his backups. He turns just 27 on Thursday.

Well, happy birthday Stevie -- you won't be on any of my teams this season. Here's why:

1. HISTORY
Since backing up Marshall Faulk as a rookie in 2004, Jackson has had an extremely high average fantasy draft position (ADP) in each of the last five years. However, he has lived up to expectation just twice -- and zero times in the last three years:

2009: ADP No. 7 among running backs, finished 10th. ADP No. 9 overall, finished 30th.
2008: ADP No. 5 among running backs, finished 12th. ADP No. 5overall, finished 31st.
2007: ADP No. 2 among running backs, finished 14th. ADP No. 2 overall, finished 41st.
2006: ADP No. 5 among running backs, finished 3rd. ADP No. 6 overall, finished 3rd.
2005: ADP No. 17 among running backs, finished 11th. ADP No. 25 overall, finished 28th.

Injuries caused Jackson to miss four games in 2007, four games in 2008 and one game in 2009. More on that later. But the bottom line is that Jackson has been an elite fantasy player just once in his career. Is this the year he's going to bust out again, seven years into his career with a rookie quarterback?

Of course, Jackson's biggest obstacle to fantasy scoring is the fact that the Rams have lost 42 of their last 48 games -- which leads me to the following theory.

To see our exact projections and ranks for Jackson, get the draft guide!

2. RUNNING BACKS ON BAD TEAMS
As I pointed out in this article last season, running backs on teams with losing records rarely finish seasons in the top-10 at their position. The updated numbers are as follows:

* Over the last 11 years, just 22 out of the 110 top-10 fantasy running backs (22 percent) have played for teams with a losing record.

*Out of those 22 seasons, Jackson only snuck on to the list once (last season) at the No. 10 spot (the Rams went 8-8 in 2006).

* Over the last 11 years, just seven out of the 55 top-five running backs (12.7 percent) have played for teams with a losing record.

These numbers prove that individual talent can only get you so far in the ultimate team sport of football. There aren't many Steph Currys or Hanley Ramirezs here. The NFL is obviously extremely unpredictable, but does anyone out there honestly believe that the Rams are going to get to eight wins? Our friends in Las Vegas (entertainment purposes only, of course) have listed the over/under on Rams' wins at five. That's tied with the Lions for the lowest total in the league.

3. CARRYING THE RAMS ON HIS BACK
All stupid puns and jokes aside, Jackson had a serious back injury a year ago. The surgery to repair a herniated disc came after spasms and a bulging disc bothered him during the last two years. Jackson and the Rams don't appear concerned about the injury at all and he is on track for training camp.

But our own injury specialist, Dr. Brian Eckenrode, cautioned that a heavy workload and repetition could prove troublesome for Jackson. It's not like S-Jax broke his leg or tore his knee and we have an exact timetable -- back injuries can be very unpredictable. With the workload that Jackson receives as the center of the defenses' attention weekly, the chances of him playing a full 16 games are not good. He hasn't played a full season since 2006.

4. OFFENSIVE LINE/RED ZONE WOES
The Rams' offensive line has the upside to be mediocre. But anchor LT Jason Smith is already showing bad signs of being injury prone. He had a meniscus injury and a severe concussion as a rookie and now is dealing with a stress fracture in his toe that could keep him out of camp. Second-round RT Roger Saffold's knee injury is minor, but it's on the radar nonetheless. Backup Mark Setterstrom (torn triceps) is likely done for the year. They traded T Alex Barron to the Cowboys in May. LG Jacob Bell is coming off a knee scope and is merely an average option even when healthy.

The offensive line is part of the reason the Jackson has averaged just 6.0 total touchdowns per season and 0.46 touchdowns per game over the last three seasons. The Rams don't move the ball into the red zone.

BOTTOM LINE
I understand why Steven Jackson has an ADP of 8.36, according to our friends at mockdraftcentral.com. I understand why people such as our own highly respected Chris Wesseling aren't shying away from Jackson in the middle-to-late part of the first round. It's rare to find a mega talent with no competition for carries these days.

But for me, the red flags and risks far outweigh the potential reward. I'll pass.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Guys I Love, Guys I Hate

The Talented Mr. Roto's all-inclusive list of sleepers and busts for 2010

By Matthew Berry
ESPN.com
ESPN Insider


The answer will surprise you.


Hold that thought.
The problem, frankly, is everyone else.


Hold that one, too. We'll be back.


I stared at my friend. "You're kidding."


"Nope. I swear."



"I was there. I saw it. He speaks the truth."

It was a number of years ago, back when I was a writer in Hollywood. I was sitting with two buddies of mine and one of them was telling me a story. Now, my friend is hilarious. Truly one of the funniest people I've ever met and very successful. But a good-looking guy he isn't.


So you can imagine my disbelief when he told me the story of him picking up a very beautiful and insanely famous movie star and bringing her back to his place.


"Same night. She wants to fly me to Paris this weekend. She's there doing press for [her most recent movie]."


The other friend nods. "Crazy."


My jaw was on the floor. I mean, this woman was at the height of her fame, having won an Oscar the year before. And while my friend actually did fairly well with women, I mean, come on. This was a totally different level. She had been named one of People's 50 most beautiful people that year, she was at least 10 years younger than my friend, she was followed by paparazzi wherever she went.


I told him I was impressed and amazed with his game. That I had no idea how he managed to hook up with this woman.


What he said next surprised me. But since you're already busy holding two thoughts, go ahead and put a pin in that one while I open up my mailbag from years past.


Brett (San Diego, Calif.): Have you ever actually seen Frank Gore play??? From the comments you made … it shows you haven't.


Matt (Houston, Texas): I don't know what Frank Gore has done to you personally, but it seems like it's clouding your professional judgment.


T.J. (Detroit, Mich.): Why do you hate Frank Gore?


There is a perception out there that I am anti-Frank Gore, and the truth is … I'm not. At all. Every year, every week even, my opinion on someone can change based on circumstance.

In 2006, the first "big break" I got with ESPN was when the network cast me as the "fantasy guy" to Ron Jaworski's "football guy" for a show called "The Fantasy Show," which also notably featured "Survivor" winner and Kansas City sports radio host Danni Boatwright.


That preseason was leading into Gore's rookie year and also Norv Turner's first year running the San Francisco 49ers' offense and I talked at length about how Norv likes to use his running backs. Gore was a major sleeper for me that year and one who obviously worked out well, for both Frank and I.


ESPN and I then made a much longer, more formal agreement after the show was done and my life was changed forever. So actually, I have a special place in my heart for ol' Frank. But over the years, based on who was coaching, where he was going in drafts and what I expected of him, he's been on both my love and hate lists.


But still, the perception that I hate this man remains, which is why it might shock you to learn I love Frank Gore this year. I have him at No. 4 overall, which is higher than I've seen him anywhere else. (He's currently going eighth overall according to our live draft results.)


In fact, I love all the 49ers. Love them so much this year that (devoted 49ers fan) Stephania Bell is embarrassed for me.


Here's part of our player profile on Gore, written by the terrific Christopher Harris: "Take away three rushing touchdowns of at least 64 yards (two of which occurred in the same game), and Gore winds up with 897 rush yards and less than 4 yards per carry." (You can click here to read the whole profile.)


Here's my counter: Including the Week 3 Minnesota game in which he had one carry for 4 yards before being injured, Gore missed three games last year. The offensive line play was poor, especially when tackle Joe Staley missed seven games. As a result of that and other factors, only two teams in the NFL attempted fewer rushes than the 49ers.


And yet Gore was still the sixth-best fantasy running back last season.


Try to remember what offense the 49ers ran last year. And then tell me which week you chose, because the offense changed week to week. Remember, this is an offense that started the season with Shaun Hill at quarterback and didn't start Alex Smith until Week 8. That had Michael Crabtree hold out. That was without Gore for a few weeks. That didn't have Vernon Davis really emerge as a consistent weekly threat until Week 7 against Houston.


It was constantly in flux. Now, this year, they go out and draft offensive linemen in the first round that are both 6-foot-5 and more than 300 pounds. Bruisers. Smith, Crabtree, Davis and Gore are all firmly entrenched in their roles. They finally get to have a full offseason and training camp to all play together. They will have much more of a balanced attack.

Now look at the schedule: at Seattle, New Orleans, at Kansas City, at Atlanta, Philadelphia, Oakland, at Carolina, Denver, Bye, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, at Arizona, at Green Bay, Seattle, at San Diego, at St. Louis, Arizona.


How many defenses on that list scare you? Only two of their opponents (Green Bay and Carolina) were top-10 in limiting points allowed last year. Green Bay, Atlanta and Philly are the only top-10 rush defenses. I love this schedule, especially for the fantasy playoffs.


Gore, Crabtree, Davis, Josh Morgan and Smith are all on my love list this year. I think Davis might regress a little bit, but he'll still be an elite tight end.


Which brings us back to perception and my friend who had hooked up with the beautiful movie star. How, I asked, did you manage to hit on her successfully?


And he said, very simply: "I actually don't think it's that hard to hook up with her. I think the tough part is getting near her. I just happened to be at the right small party."


Told you the answer would surprise you.


I remember his story when I think about fantasy sports. (I also think of it every time I see her in a movie. Especially because, um, he wasn't shy about details.) Just like my buddy's night, an athlete's fantasy sports value is often more about opportunity than actual skill. It's also about perception.


The perception of this actress by most was one of glamour and being unattainable. The reality, according to my friend, was that she was kind of lonely and fairly open to his advances.


Back to the second thought you've been holding on to: the problem is everyone else. You see, as you approach your drafts, it's not really about how good players are but how good you perceive them to be. That's a key difference.


And it's not just how you value every player, but what perception the rest of the guys in your league have of all the players. Doing mock drafts and, if possible, studying drafting trends of your league's previous drafts can help you do this. And if nothing else, look at those live draft results to have a general idea of where guys are going, so you can make sure to jump a bit early to get the players you want.


And that's what "Love/Hate" is all about. Many of you are familiar with the "Love/Hate" concept, but for those who are new to it, it's basically this: I go off of our current ESPN live draft positions, which are based on ESPN standard, 10-team leagues. Players I "love" are guys I would reach a round or two earlier to get. Guys I "hate" are players I feel are being overvalued and I wouldn't want them unless they dropped at least a round or two from where they were going.

It's that simple. If you have a question about how I feel about a specific player versus another, consult my rankings. I'll be keeping them updated throughout the preseason.
A few final pieces of advice about this article. First, use your head. Just because I "love" Michael Bush and "hate" LeSean McCoy doesn't mean I think you should take "Reggae Bush" over LeSean. It's all relative to where they are being drafted, meaning I would go a round or two early on Bush (currently going in the 11th, I have him ranked as a ninth-rounder) and wouldn't draft McCoy until the fifth, even though his current draft position has him going in the fourth. Don't be a moron. Or, if you choose to be a moron, don't blame me for it. Remember, only a poor craftsman blames his tool. That's all I am, your tool. Wait, that came out wrong. Which is odd, since I used that joke last year. Huh. You'd think I'd have fixed that by now.


Second, sometimes I give analysis about why a player is on one list or the other, other times I'll just try to make a joke, because a column of nothing but stats is boring. But trust that I've done the research. Or don't. I survived ninth grade, I'll survive your doubt.


Third, one complaint that comes up is that there are too many love players and not enough hate. That's just the nature of the beast. It doesn't do you any good to say I hate Jake Delhomme. His value and rank already reflect that he is not highly thought of. So you're really only choosing "hate" from the guys that are considered at a high enough level to be drafted with big expectations, which pretty much eliminates anyone in the lower rounds. The guys I "love" can come from anywhere, from the first round to the last. I try to balance it between wanting to be comprehensive and hitting a number of the guys I have ranked higher and lower while not going totally nuts on every single player. And it's long, as you've already figured out. But so what? It's the preseason. You've got nothing better to do anyway.


Fourth, the players are listed in no real particular order other than what I thought was the most readable version between stat-heavy stuff and jokes. There's nothing to take from the order as far as loving one.


<INLINE-AUDIO>Finally, this is being written in mid-July. It's early. Fantasy value changes constantly and as we get into training camp and preseason games, I'll have to update this list as well as my rankings. But don't worry, we'll discuss everything on the site and on the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast as it happens.


Which brings us, finally, to this year's football edition of "Guys I Love, Guys I Hate."


2010 Players I Love:



Da Bears: In Mike Martz I trust. OK, that's not actually true. I mean, if I did that thing where you're supposed to close your eyes, fall backwards and have someone catch you, Martz wouldn't be the guy I'd choose, you know? And now that I think of it, I wouldn't ask him to watch my dog. Or loan him money. Or let him near my girlfriend because clearly, any woman with me has a thing for egotistical guys.


But, and this is the key, Martz has the weapons to have the Bears putting up big fantasy numbers across the board. If you read me last year, you know how much I hated Jay Cutler (and by the end of the year, all of his owners joined me), but under Martz, Cutler will put up numbers. He'll also throw tons of picks, because he's gonna get pressured, but I actually like him much more than last year.


I'm high on Devin Hester, Johnny Knox and especially these next two guys …

Devin Aromashodu, WR: Things I don't have in common with Jay Cutler … a contract worth $49 million, a Twitter account (http://twitter.com/JayCutler6) that follows country singer Miranda Lambert and a rumored romance with Julia Allison, who apparently is famous for things like rumored romances.


Things I do have in common with Jay Cutler: I love me some Devin Aromashodu. One of my guys I am planting the proverbial flag on, I'm not caught up on whether he's gonna start or be the third WR to start the year. They'll be throwing enough for everyone. He's a bigger target than either Hester or Knox, he's fast and -- this is the key -- has a good connection with Cutler. In the final four games of 2009, Devin A. had 22 receptions for 282 yards and four scores. More importantly, in that time frame, he was tied for fifth in the NFL in targets with 39, same as Miles Austin. And the next highest guy on the Bears was Greg Olsen, with 24. Injuries to others played some part in that, but Cutler clearly likes to look for Devin and so do I. Uh, in my drafts.
Matt Forte, RB: The hate from former owners is so strong after last year that I believe he could be a bargain this year. ESPN researcher Gregory Found looked at every running back under Mike Martz and while we all know the crazy numbers the Rams and Marshall Faulk put up, it's worth noting that the past four runners under Martz (Gore, Kevin Jones twice and Steven Jackson in '05) have all had at least eight touchdowns every year. And that's with Jones missing games both seasons.


By the way, interesting to note that according to Elias, in the past 10 years as a head coach and offensive coordinator, Martz has called for passing plays in the red zone 687 times. And running plays 645 times. Just saying, Forte is a good fit for him.


Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles: An Andy Reid offense has been among the top 10 in pass attempts and passing yardage each of the past six seasons. The Eagles are fielding the most talented group of receivers they've ever had in Philly, and like the Packers did with Aaron Rodgers the year after Brett Favre left Green Bay, there's a desire to do everything possible to make it look like the right move to run Donovan McNabb out of town. Big year for Kolb. Big year.


Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: What has two thumbs and isn't worried about Thomas Jones? This guy.


Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: As I explained in my Draft Day Manifesto, I'm going after elite wide receivers early and often this year.


Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons: Trust me when I tell you no one was more aware of Michael Turner's injury last year than me (ahem). But I'm guessing the Falcons were a close second and they saw Snelling fill in decently for Turner over the second half of the season. The plans are to limit Turner's workload this year, but they are still gonna run the ball, which means he'll get a little more work than the average backup and he's a key handcuff, whether you own Turner or simply want to screw over the guy who does.


Chad Henne, QB, Dolphins: He had 300 yards passing in three of his final five games, double-digit fantasy points in four of his final five games, and he just got Brandon Marshall.


Lex Hilliard, RB, Dolphins: Ronnie Brown can't stay healthy and Ricky Williams is old. Just because it's simple and obvious doesn't mean it's not true.


Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: Yep, still wacko for Flacco. Attention people who enjoy writing angry e-mails: I am aware I didn't create that phrase. I am also aware that where I rank Flacco and where he is being drafted is basically identical. But while I never claimed to invent the phrase, I believe that Flacco, fully healthy in his third year, with Derrick Mason back, another year of Ray Rice and the addition of Anquan Boldin and Donte' Stallworth, has by far the most upside of any quarterback who isn't one of the top guys and I enjoy angering those who write angry e-mails by not giving them something to write angrily about. Now you'll just have to write your angry e-mail about one of the other 66 players I mention.


Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens: No one at your draft is going to write (or type) "Ooooh, good pick!" when you select Mason. He's been around forever, he's not sexy, he's old, blah, snooze, blah. But he's had three straight 1,000-yard seasons, he was top-15 in the NFL in targets last year, he was the 17th-best fantasy wideout in 2009 and yet is being drafted as the No. 41 wideout this season. What? Yes, they now have Anquan Boldin there. But, um, we've seen other wide receivers do OK when playing opposite Boldin, haven't we? They will continue to let Flacco do more and more with the offense and while Boldin adjusts, Flacco has good old Mason out there, someone he knows and trusts. Mason's targets will go down, but so will the defensive attention to him.


Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Currently going two rounds later than C.J. Spiller, I said it on our podcast and I will say it here: Fred Jackson will be the best fantasy running back in Buffalo this year. Did you know he was actually the 16th best fantasy running back last year? He'll get the majority of touches compared to Spiller (who is more of a home run threat). ESPN researcher Gregory Found, of Matt Forte entry fame, also looked at running backs under new Bills coach Chan Gailey for me.


Check out these stats:
Running backs under Chan Gailey

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>1998 Cowboys </TH><TH>Rushes </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH><TH>Yards per game </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>Rec yards </TH><TH>Rec TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Emmitt Smith </TD><TD>319.0 </TD><TD>1332 </TD><TD>13 </TD><TD>83.3 </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>175 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Sherman Williams </TD><TD>64.0 </TD><TD>220 </TD><TD>1 </TD><TD>13.8 </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>104 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>1999 Cowboys </TH><TH>Rushes </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH><TH>Yards per game </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>Rec yards </TH><TH>Rec TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Emmitt Smith </TD><TD>329.0 </TD><TD>1397 </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>93.1 </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>119 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chris Warren </TD><TD>99.0 </TD><TD>403 </TD><TD>2 </TD><TD>25.2 </TD><TD>34 </TD><TD>224 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>2000 Dolphins </TH><TH>Rushes </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH><TH>Yards per game </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>Rec yards </TH><TH>Rec TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Lamar Smith </TD><TD>309.0 </TD><TD>1139 </TD><TD>14 </TD><TD>75.9 </TD><TD>31 </TD><TD>201 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Thurman Thomas </TD><TD>28.0 </TD><TD>136 </TD><TD>0 </TD><TD>15.1 </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>117 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>2001 Dolphins </TH><TH>Rushes </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH><TH>Yards per game </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>Rec yards </TH><TH>Rec TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Lamar Smith </TD><TD>313.0 </TD><TD>968 </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>60.5 </TD><TD>30 </TD><TD>234 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Travis Minor </TD><TD>59.0 </TD><TD>281 </TD><TD>2 </TD><TD>17.6 </TD><TD>29 </TD><TD>263 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>2008 Chiefs </TH><TH>Rushes </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH><TH>Yards per game </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>Rec yards </TH><TH>Rec TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Larry Johnson </TD><TD>193.0 </TD><TD>874 </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>72.8 </TD><TD>12 </TD><TD>74 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jamaal Charles </TD><TD>67.0 </TD><TD>357 </TD><TD>0 </TD><TD>22.3 </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>272 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




Two things jump out. First, there's no time-share here. At all. Obviously, you have an Emmitt Smith, he's your workhorse. But you can't tell me Lamar Smith is some amazing talent that had to have 300 touches. Gainey's MO has been that one guy carries the majority of the load. Spiller is not built to be that kind of guy.


Second, notice how many receptions the second guy gets in each case despite not being on the field nearly as much. Some of that is dictated by the skill level of both runners at catching passes, but still. Even though Jackson is a very good pass-catcher (further underscoring him as the guy in this offense), Spiller will see a good many balls. Both are talented, but Jackson will represent the far better fantasy value this year.


James Jones, WR, Packers: As required by fantasy analyst law.


Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: Interesting stat: There are only seven running backs who have had at least 1,100 total yards from scrimmage for the past three seasons: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones, Marion Barber, and yes, Ryan Grant.


Better stat: Last season, there were only five teams with at least 20 rushing touchdowns: the Ravens, Dolphins, Saints, Jets and Packers. All of those teams had two runners rush the ball at least 100 times. All except Green Bay. Grant is another non-sexy name that won't make anyone go "ooooh" at your draft, but he's also got very limited downside, and that's what makes him a great value.


Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals: He's just a heartbeat away. Or a hip. Or a suspension. Or a crazy meltdown. Or a dreadlocks getting caught in a revolving door and buckling a guy's knee backward.


Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Did you know that Jonathan is the son of beloved actor and American icon Jimmy Stewart? You don't, but that's only because it's untrue. Just like the fact a "backup" running back isn't a viable fantasy starter. From Week 6 to Week 10, The Daily Show and DeAngelo Williams put up double-digit performances in the same week three times. Stewart went on to be the lead rusher in four of the final five Panthers games due to Williams' injury, and that contributed to Stewart's double-digit points in seven of his final 10 games. To give you a comparison, Adrian Peterson had only four in his final 10.


Now sure, 10 games is an arbitrary point to pick and DeAngelo Williams missing four of those games helps, fine. But if you're gonna nitpick, we'll be here all day. Look, I understand the doubters. In addition to Williams being around, Stewart has health issues. But frankly, every running back does, and as we note in our ESPN Fantasy Magazine, when the Panthers were inside an opponent's 10-yard line, they ran it 67 percent of the time, third most in the NFL. And who led the team in goal-line touches? Exactly. Stewart became the player we all thought he could be last year and the way the Panthers run the rock, there's more than enough fantasy goodness to go around.


Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns: Just wanted to prove I could spell his name. As bad as Delhomme is, he's better than what they had last year and I think you'll actually see sort of a poor man's Panthers this year in Cleveland. Heavy on the run between Jerome Harrison and Montario Hardesty (shades of Williams and Stewart) to help set up deep passes to Chainsaw (like the original Steve Smith). Dude averaged more than 18 yards a catch last year and, um, I think the Browns are gonna be behind some this year, ya know?

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: Look, I have a special place in my heart for Miles Austin. He's a friend of the podcast and on the Sunday morning of Week 5 last year, I told the audience of "Fantasy Football Now" (on ESPN2 and ESPN.com) to go grab him off the wire right then -- he was starting for Roy Williams and would have a big day versus Kansas City -- easily my best game-day call of the year. (You'll notice Chris Jennings is nowhere to be found on that list. Ahem.)


Now, liking Austin this year is fairly obvious, but I have him as my third overall wide receiver and 10 slots ahead of where he's being drafted. Starting in Week 5 of last year, when he became a starter, through the rest of the year, Austin led the NFL in yardage and in plays of more than 25 yards, was third in yards after catch, was tied for third in touchdowns, was fifth in receptions and eighth in targets. The addition of Dez Bryant will force defenses to play Austin honest and I expect another monster year from him.


Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: Apparently it's only me and petite blondes who like Romo. You know how good Drew Brees was last year, right? He averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game (not counting Week 17). Romo averaged 15.7 a game, or less than two points a week fewer than the multi-ESPY-award-winning Brees. He's going two rounds after where I ranked him and with Austin, Bryant, Jason Witten and Felix Jones, there are a lot, lot, lot of weapons.


Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: One of these years …


Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys: Another guy who will come up in my next rankings update, I agree with the assessment my podcast co-host Nate Ravitz made in ESPN The Magazine: Less work might be a good thing for Barber. His 16 touchdowns in 2006 came when he averaged fewer than 10 carries a game. Remember my Ryan Grant stat? Well Barber is also one of only seven guys to have at least 1,100 total yards in three consecutive years.


Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Gets a new lease on Weis! What? That sort of rhymes with life. It does, too. And it's not a terrible pun. Just a bad one. Look, I'm not proud of this entry and you won't be proud when you take him. But both will get the job done better than you thought. Now, hand me that plate of Weis and beans. What?


Jahvid Best, RB, Lions: I ranked him way too low in my last rankings. That'll be changed in my next update, but while he needs to stay healthy (don't we all), word out of Detroit is that they will be a run-first team to set up the play-action and I believe they want Best to be the guy, regardless of Kevin Smith's health.


Nate Burleson, WR, Lions: He's playing in Scott Linehan's offense and across from a big-name wide receiver. Just like, you know, in 2004 in Minnesota, when he had more than 1,000 yards and 10 total touchdowns, his second year in the league. Now, Randy Moss missed five games that year and Nate scored in four of those, but still. He's a good player on a team that will be down and for what it will cost to get him, he is well worth the flier.


Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Calling my shot in early July. He's the Texans running back with the most fantasy points at the end of the year.


Donald Brown, RB, Colts: If you play fantasy baseball, you know the story of David Price, who had lots of hype two years ago, did nothing, went much later in drafts this season and finally lived up to the hype. Meet football's answer to David Price.


Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: Last season, despite missing two games, Pierre Thomas led the Saints in offensive touches with 186. No. 2, Mike Bell, now plays on the Eagles. Look, I know Thomas was frustratingly up and down last year, that Sean Payton will mix up his play calling and lots of people not named Kardashian love Reggie Bush this year. And I'll even say I bet Lynell Hamilton, a sleeper for me in deep leagues, gets in the mix. But Thomas is going almost two rounds lower than I rank him and for me, if you have a chance to get the guy who touches the ball the most on the most explosive offense in the league, you think strongly about it.


Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: See Jones, James.


Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: First-round production you can get in the second.

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: Look, there's lots of reasons to hate Mark Sanchez. The crazy hot girlfriends, the run-first offense, the poor judgment displayed in agreeing to the photo seen here. But after his strong playoffs and the addition of Santonio Holmes, plus a full year of Braylon Edwards, another year with Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller, Sanchez has some weapons and a great run game that will command most defenses' attention. Do I think he'll be awesome? No. But I do think, for a bye week/No. 2 guy, he has a lot of upside and is going very late.


Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: Will lead Jets WRs in fantasy points, lack of drops, lack of suspensions and third-grade giggles at his last name.


Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: See Brown, Donald.


Da Raiders: I'm as surprised as you, but turns out there's not just leather, spikes and a half-furnished Hammer's mansion in Oakland, but in fact, there's lots of fantasy value there, as well. Start with Michael Bush, who, as Keith Lipscomb noted in our magazine, has the following stat: In the five career games Bush has gotten more than 15 touches, he's averaged 134.8 yards from scrimmage. The Redskins had a lot of problems last year but Jason Campbell wasn't one of them. Now he's on an offense that plays to his strengths and as a result, he should be among the first "No. 2" quarterbacks taken.


Remember that Campbell likes his tight end. "His" is a very important word in that last sentence, incidentally. Much better than, say, "a." Anyways, he targeted Chris Cooley, Fred Davis and Todd Yoder a combined 21 times in the red zone last year, which, had it been one player, would have tied for third in the NFL among tight ends. Miller was sixth in the NFL in yards after the catch; if he can actually get the ball, he can do things with it. Campbell will get him the ball. And I think the Raiders' young receivers are interesting late-round picks, starting with Chaz Schilens and friend of the podcast Darrius Heyward-Bey.


Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers.: See Nicks, Hakeem.


Heath Miller, TE, Steelers: If you are in a deep league and you wait on tight end, it's worth noting that Heath was fifth in red zone targets at the position last season.


Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks: It's a mess in Seattle and if Leon Washington turns out healthy, as Pete Carroll talked about on our podcast
listen.png
it further muddies the picture. But ultimately talent wins out, he's the best guy they have there and he's going in the ninth round. I have him ranked in the fifth and will gladly take him in the seventh. (And that, kids, is how you use rankings and live draft results to your advantage).


Da Chargers: As I said when I told my buddy's story about the beautiful movie star, life and fantasy sports are often more about opportunity than actual skill. Which brings us to the San Diego Super Chargers.


Ryan Mathews, RB: He isn't the most talented running back among rookies, but he should be the first one drafted and could very easily wind up as a top-10 runner this year. Norv Turner told the San Diego Union Tribune that he wants Mathews to get around 290 touches this year. Kids, that's a lot. And even with all of the Bolts' problems running the ball last year, they still had 17 rushing touchdowns, 11th best in the NFL. When Norv gets close, he runs the ball and Mathews is the guy who is gonna get the rock.


Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee, WRs: Opportunity will also knock for this pair of wide receivers who will be a significant part of a high-flying passing offense that will be without Vincent Jackson for at least three games (and potentially more) while V Jax holds out. Floyd is a really interesting No. 3 and I'd take Naanee with a late-round flier in every draft I could. Oh, and try to get yourself invited to small parties where hot, famous actresses hang out.


Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: He's a Britt. House. He's mighty mighty. Letting it all hang out.


Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: People are gonna say this is me being a Redskins homer for this pick, but seriously, he's been a first- or second-round pick every year of his career and these days he's going in the eighth. People are concerned about the Russian roulette Mike Shanahan is known for playing with running backs, but Portis had his most productive years playing under Shanny.


People are worried about his health, but prior to last year, he had two straight years of playing all 16 games and had missed just 12 games in the seven years prior to '09. People are worried about all the other running backs there, but I'm not sure Willie Parker makes the team and I actually think Larry Johnson being there helps, as it will save a little wear and tear on Portis during the year. In short, I disagree with the people. One last thing and, this will shock you … he's only 29. Oh, it's an old 29. But still. Just 29 and a better-than-average chance to be the lead back on a decent offense. Eighth round. Come on.


Santana Moss and Devin Thomas, WR, Redskins: They'll go dirt cheap and they didn't bring in McNabb to hand it off, you know? Incidentally, check this out:


Player A: 62 receptions on 117 targets, 1,156 yards, 40 first downs, 9 receiving TDs, 9 red zone targets, 420 yards after catch, 14 receptions of 25 yards or more.


Player B: 70 receptions on 120 targets, 902 yards, 40 first downs, 3 receiving TDs, 15 red zone targets, 400 yards after catch, 8 receptions of 25 yards or more.


Player A averaged about 15 more yards a week last year than Player B, had six more plays of 25 yards or more and the touchdowns are a big discrepancy. But everything else? Pretty close.


Player A is DeSean Jackson. Player B? Santana Moss.


Now, I'm not saying Moss is Jackson. But touchdowns are hard to predict, especially since Jackson isn't a huge red zone target. And can't at least some of the big plays be chalked up to a better quarterback? (Campbell actually had a better completion percentage than McNabb last year, but he also rarely threw downfield. Philly had 22 more completions of 20 yards or more in '09.) Energized by a new offense and quarterback, Moss could be Jackson Light this year.
Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins: Will go late due to his injury last year but McNabb loves throwing to the tight end.

2010 Players I Hate

two first ones. And I know he was banged up last year, but that doesn't change the fact it's a run-first team and there's very little that's different this year than last, when Ryan underwhelmed from a fantasy perspective week after week after week. He had more than two touchdown passes in only two games last year; that's not a lot. He was 20th in terms of red zone pass attempts. Oh, and he was 23rd in terms of completions of 20-plus yards, too. So he's not throwing it in close or throwing it long … what are we excited about again?


Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: In addition to tight end being very deep this year, he had his lowest target total in three years last season. Oh, and see above.


C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Please see Jackson, Fred.


Greg Olsen, TE, Bears: In a Martz offense, the tight end is much more of a blocker. So, you know, if you get points for that, draft away!


Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals: Cedric Benson up the middle for 4. Second down now and Benson is off left tackle, gain of 3. Palmer back to pass, Chad Ochocinco … is doing the foxtrot? In the middle of the route! Pass is off target, incomplete. Fourth down.


Chad Ochocinco, WR, Bengals: "Dancing With the Stars." A dating reality show. An iPhone app. These are things I should be doing during an offseason, not the accomplishments of a professional football wide receiver. With the exception of a huge game against Detroit, Ochocinco was fairly terrible over the second half of last year but was bailed out by four straight weeks of scoring, but you can't count on that. Double-digit touchdowns only once in his career and Antonio Bryant will steal enough catches off of this run-first offense to make Chad a No. 3 wideout who will get drafted as a No. 2.


Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: On the plus side, he can't get hurt if he's on the bench.


DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Let's play again:


Player A: 84 receptions, 1,483 yards, 17.7 yards per catch, 9 touchdowns.
Player B: 55 receptions, 790 yards, 14.4 yards per catch, 6 touchdowns.


Player A? Santana Moss in 2005. Player B? Santana Moss in 2006. My colleague Christopher Harris is fond of saying this, but it bears repeating: Speed guys who consistently need big plays for their fantasy value are a risky proposition. Ask anyone who owned Moss in 2006 but was forced to draft him based on 2005's production.


Kevin Walter, WR, Texans: I'm a Jacoby Jones guy and even if Walter manages to hold him off, he's got Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and a bunch of running backs to fight for the ball. He'll be even lower in my next rankings update.


Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Single-digit fantasy points in seven of his past nine games. Folks will point out that we shouldn't count Weeks 16 and 17 in that because he didn't really play, but you know that'll happen again this year. There's lots and lots of other weapons in Indy and his 12.6 yards per catch last year was the lowest of his career since 2003. Fourth-round production you have to draft in the second.


Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me many times, shame on Ronnie Brown and your inexplicable reason to be continually drawn to him despite knowing he's bad for you. Like me and Nutter Butters. Anyways, as our player profile notes, dude has never topped 1,008 rushing yards in a season and has missed nine games the past three years.


Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins: New team, new quarterback, injury issues and has to go to Revis Island twice.


Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: Remember that year he lived up to the hype? No, seriously, I'm asking. Because I can't.


Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets: On the plus side, it's hard to drop the ball when you're blocking. Or clapping for Santonio.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Let's have some fun with stats.


In each of the past three seasons, the Eagles have been in the top 10 in the NFL in pass attempts.


In each of the past three seasons, the Eagles have been in the bottom 10 in rush attempts.


Offensive touches for the 2009 Eagles inside an opponent's 10-yard line:


LeSean McCoy 8
Leonard Weaver 8
Brian Westbrook 7
Brent Celek 6
Michael Vick 4
Eldra Buckley 3
Jason Avant 2
Donovan McNabb 2
Reggie Brown, Kevin Kolb, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson -- 1 each.


Look, I think he'll be good. What I don't think is he's the reincarnation of Brian Westbrook. He's not the run-blocker or pass-catcher that Westbrook was in this offense. They have a lot of guys, including newly acquired Mike Bell, Leonard Weaver and Mike Vick around the goal line not to mention Jackson, Maclin and Celek.


Da Seahawks: Except Justin Forsett, of course. The truth is … we don't know. Football, especially the fantasy version of it, is filled with unpredictability. And that's when we know what to expect. I honestly have no idea what to expect out of Seattle and Pete Carroll. I don't think his stint in New England is that informative and much depends on the health of Matt Hasselbeck, the offensive line and the development of Golden Tate. I think John Carlson could be interesting and certainly we've seen T.J. Houshmandzadeh be successful in this league, but honestly, other than Forsett or maybe Carlson in a deeper league, I'm avoiding this until we get more clarity. Which will be after the season starts.


Donovan McNabb, QB, Redskins: As a Redskins fan, I love McNabb and am thrilled he's there. I've met him a few times and he's a great guy who will be a terrific influence in the clubhouse. And I feel he'll play well. I worry about his protection and while I think McNabb raises the value of everyone around him, I'm afraid from a fantasy perspective, everyone around him lowers the value of McNabb, who for me isn't a starter in a 10-team league, and is borderline in a 12-teamer.


There you have it, "Love/Hate" for 2010 is a wrap. Now, who wants to invite me to an intimate dinner party?
 

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The Nicks vs. Smith Debate
Sidney Rice. Robert Meachem. Mike Sims-Walker. Steve Smith (Giants).

These were 2009's "breakout third-year receivers" -- a popular term in fantasy circles that is actually more fable than fact, as explained more than sufficiently in this blog post.

Smith was the best of them all. Leading the NFC in receptions and finishing as the No. 11 fantasy wideout (No. 8 in PPR), Smith set career highs in catches, yards, touchdowns, and yards-per-catch average. Outrageously consistent, Smith caught at least four passes in 15-of-16 games and six or more in 11. He ranked fourth in the NFL in targets, hauling in 71 percent of them.

Remember the "concern" about New York's "unproven" receiver corps entering last season? Smith is the primary reason the group is now considered among the league's most promising.

Editor's Note: See where Smith ranks in the 2010 Rotoworld Draft Guide.

Meanwhile, Giants first-round pick Hakeem Nicks labored through the early part of his first year. An injured hamstring, contributing to Nicks' fluky offseason weight gain, was aggravated in training camp. Recovered for the second exhibition game, Nicks exploded against the Jets for six catches, 144 yards, and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, Nicks suffered a mid-foot sprain in the season opener when he was just on the verge of supplanting then-starter Domenik Hixon.

Nicks returned with a bang. In Weeks 4-7, he scored a TD in four straight contests despite playing 43-or-less percent of the offensive snaps in all but one -- a five-catch, 114-yard, one-score eruption against New Orleans' stout secondary. Though Nicks was ultimately inconsistent because of his low target and snap totals, the former North Carolina Tar Heel's dominant talent again flashed in a four-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown effort against Philadelphia in Week 13.

Nicks finished as the No. 29 fantasy receiver.

He didn't even see half as many targets as Smith during the 2009 season, and wound up with about three games worth of snaps fewer than Manningham. Ridiculously gifted, Nicks still found a way to pace the Giants in total yards after the catch and generate 13 plays of 20-plus yards. (Smith and Manningham each had 15 with loads more opportunities). Nicks' "drop rate" (drops divided by catches) was also easily the best on the team. He is New York's most physical receiver, the best at breaking tackles, and has the best hands and size.

<!--RW-->

The explanation for Nicks' conservative usage when he was arguably the best receiver on the team could involve multiple factors:

1. Nicks got off to a slow start. The team might've worried he'd aggravate an injury if pressed into a full-time role rather than the rotation with Manningham.

2. Nicks was a rookie. Coaching staffs -- especially old ones like Tom Coughlin's -- often defer to veterans when divvying up playing time.

3. Nicks spent virtually all of his time out wide. The missed practice time appeared to slow his development in terms of learning all three receiver positions.

Of course, these things tend to balance out in time. Playcaller Kevin Gilbride hit the offseason film room and couldn't help but love what he saw from Nicks. Manningham isn't going away, but with the worst hands on the team (10 drops in '09) and no physicality (Nicks, by the way, is New York's top blocking wideout), Mario is better cutout as a situational deep threat off the bench. Nicks was cleared from toe surgery in June and will experience his first full complement of two-a-days in camp.

He shouldn't have trouble winning the starting job.

Overtaking Smith as Eli Manning's preferred target will be harder for Nicks, but it's worth noting that throughout Gilbride's coaching career his offensive philosophy has involved running to set up the deep ball. He couldn't pound the rock as much with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw playing hurt all last season. The tailbacks are healthy this year, and the defense will be better.

Gilbride's history supports a downfield-oriented passing game. The numbers and game tape both say Nicks is a significantly better vertical threat than Smith.

Let's conservatively project that Nicks and Manningham essentially swap roles in the offense. Mario saw roughly 700 snaps and 100 targets last year. If Nicks gets similar totals and doesn't improve on his per-play rookie-year production, his numbers will proportionally look like this:

67 catches
1,126 yards
9 touchdowns

While the numbers would've made Nicks a top-20 receiver per last year's fantasy point rankings, they're not quite enough to vault him past Smith's No. 11 finish. And that's where the upside factor comes in. Since NFL players traditionally make their biggest leaps between years one and two, Nicks' ceiling is quite a bit higher. As the ideal system fit in Gilbride's offense, Nicks undoubtedly offers the potential to emerge as New York's top receiver in 2010. Even Smith is on record as saying he believes Nicks will be the Giants' breakout player.

And now, some fantasy analysis:

According to the latest Average Draft Position data, Smith is commonly being selected between the 38th and 39th overall picks, and as the WR14. Our projections say he'll be just the 49th-best fantasy player and the WR18, behind receivers he's routinely being drafted before like Michael Crabtree, Chad Ochocinco, the Panthers' Steve Smith, and Mike Sims-Walker.

The Giants' Steve Smith is going to be a solid player for a long time, but this just isn't great value. Particularly in non-PPR formats, we'd much prefer the more talented Nicks at his current late fifth-round ADP than Smith in round three.
 

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Seattle's RBBC: Don't Force It

Justin Forsett was one of "my guys" early last season. I recommended him several times as a flier in my weekly Waiver Wired columns, and he went on to thoroughly outplay Julius Jones while far surpassing expectations. The only problem? A sizable contingent of fantasy owners and football analysts have gone on to overstate the fantasy value and NFL potential of an excellent role player.

Oddly enough, the "Free Forsett" movement came to a screeching halt in early May after the Seahawks parted with a few trinkets to acquire a mediocre short-yardage back during the draft. Forsett's ADP between May 12 and May 24 was the middle of the 13th round (check the "Graph" box on Forsett's line to see ADP history). Two months later, after Seattle had unceremoniously dumped LenDale White, Forsett's ADP skyrocketed all the way to the early sixth round as the 26th running back off the board.

So if Leon Washington is nothing more than a wild card and Julius Jones is clearly a less effective back, why not draft "J-Force" in the sixth-round as a borderline RB2/3? Well, let's take a deeper look:

Forsett's first coaching staff, back in the Mike Holmgren era, considered him a fringe player and lost him on waivers. His 2009 staff, led by Jim Mora and Greg Knapp, considered him a role player to the point where Jones was re-installed as the starter later in the season in the face of Forsett's superior play. While the current regime insists they appreciate his skills, the draft-weekend acquisitions of Washington and White show a clear lack of faith in Forsett as a feature back. The reports that the Seahawks were "quite interested" -- and still may be -- in Marshawn Lynch show the same lack of faith in Forsett as anything more than a role player.

Pete Carroll's recent history at USC shows a marked tendency toward a backfield-by-committee approach. As Carroll recently reminded us himself, Forsett isn't even ahead of Jones or Washington on the depth chart heading into training camp.

At 5'10/194 with a physical running style, Forsett isn't built to hold up to a feature back's pounding. Like many smaller backs, he can't sustain a rushing attack game-in and game-out for 17 weeks. And you can bet his coaches are well aware that he had 20+ carries just one time last season (versus the Rams). He came out of that game "questionable" for the next game and was clearly "not himself" for the following three weeks.

If he regains his pre-injury form, Washington brings a similar skill-set in a more talented and proven package. Forsett may have to hold off a superior player for passing-down and two-minute drill snaps this season, and that's where the majority of his fantasy value lies.

As our friend Sigmund Bloom from Footballguys keenly pointed out, Forsett's impressive 2009 metrics skewed heavily toward garbage-time production against nickel defenses that were mailing it in or had at least "taken their foot off the gas pedal." In short, he's not nearly as good as his small sample size numbers suggest he is. Don't bank on those metrics staying static against base defenses.

Seattle had all of seven rushing touchdowns last season. Even if we give the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt for a slight offensive upgrade, there are still at least a half-dozen backs with roles similar to Forsett but operating in more desirable offenses, i.e. Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Steve Slaton, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, Chester Taylor, Darren Sproles, Tim Hightower.

If Forsett projects to receive 12-16 touches per game in a committee attack, where is the fantasy upside in a lower-tier offense? His 4.60-to-4.70 forty speed will prohibit long scores, and he's certainly not the early favorite for goal-line duties. Heck, even Quinton Ganther is being mentioned as a potential solution inside the 5-yard line.

I have little doubt that Forsett can excel as a situational player, especially in Seattle's zone-blocking scheme. Realistically, that makes him a passable RB3 option starting in the eighth or ninth round as a player with a shot at startable RB2 value for stretches of the season. More ideally, he's a flex option for PPR league owners willing to ride out the "hot hand" roller coaster of a committee attack.

For Dynasty and keeper league owners, Forsett is a "must-sell" heading into the 2010 season. He lacks the combination of staying power, special talent, and stability that provides long-term value.
 

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So crazy it's genius

Thirteen revelations that will help your fantasy draft this year


By Ken Daube, Christopher Harris, K.C. Joyner and A.J. Mass
ESPN The Magazine


Welcome to ESPN's Fantasy Football Strategy Guide. In these unbelievably valuable pages -- we were going to print them in 24-karat-gold ink to drive home the point, but the magazine would have been too heavy -- you'll find 13 genuine revelations that will help you dominate your league in 2010.


To start things off, what decision could possibly be more important than whom to take No. 1 overall? Yeah, I know, I know. You're like everyone else. You think it should be Chris Johnson, and you don't think it's close.


Not so fast. Lately, we've become more and more like 6-month-olds. We're often incapable of imagining a future that doesn't closely conform to the very recent past. Like infants, we catalog what's directly before us and assume it will always be so. We watch Johnson dominate fantasy in 2009 and decide it would be stupid and indefensible not to call him the No. 1 overall pick for 2010.


But not only do I think it's defensible, I'm doing it. I like Adrian Peterson over Chris Johnson.


Read on to find out why.
<OFFER>
1. AP IS MIGHTIER THAN CJ2K

Chris Johnson had 7 TD runs of 30-plus yards last year. That tied a single-season NFL record held by Jim Brown, from 1958. So what's the problem? Well, before '09, there had been only 23 seasons in NFL history in which a back had produced a minimum of four such TDs. And in every case, the back managed, at most, two such TDs the following year. If you believe in history, you should doubt CJ's going long in 2010. See for yourself.



Now, not all of CJ2K's fantasy greatness last year came from TDs. He also accrued a whopping 693 rushing yards on carries that went for 30-plus yards. That's about 35% of his 2,006 total rushing yards. The last guy to accrue this many big-play rush yards was Barry Sanders in 1997; he had 701. The next year, Sanders produced "only" 335 rushing yards on runs of 30 yards or more. Another bad sign.

VULTURE SCORES

Since 1940, there have been only 13 seasons in which a back has scored 14 or more TDs from inside an opponent's 5, including Adrian Peterson's 14 from last year. On average, these backs saw their short scores drop to eight the following season. So fine: Drop AP to 12 total rushing TDs this year, but keep his yards about the same. And give Johnson a decrease in yards and TDs. That leaves us with this speculative 2010 comparison to your left. See, it's getting close.



WORK LOAD

Here's where Johnson's 2009 usage comes in. CJ2K had 408 touches from scrimmage last year, the 41st season of 400-plus touches by an RB in NFL history. In their follow-up seasons, these high-usage backs averaged 99 fewer touches, 85 fewer fantasy points and 2.1 fewer games. To slice it another way, more than 80% of these RBs scored fewer fantasy points the next year. Yikes. But is 400 touches really a magic number? After all, Peterson had 357 last year, which is also a ton. Shouldn't his production decline too? Well, in looking at the 122 times in NFL history prior to 2009 that a back has accrued between 350 and 399 touches in a single season, only 68% of these RBs scored fewer fantasy points, while 31% actually had more touches.


THE UPSIDE -- AND DOWNSIDE

Peterson has been a top-five fantasy back all three years he's been in the NFL, the only man who can say that over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, who knows if Johnson is capable of sustained success? That's a question worth mulling, because when you look at the lists of high-usage players, there are very few guys as small as Johnson, who's generously listed at 5'11" and 200 pounds. I know that many folks like to defend CJ2K by comparing him to Sanders, another guy who made tacklers miss and was relatively small (5'8", 203). But think about this: Sanders never once had a 400-touch season. Not once. So Chris Johnson literally just finished a season where he was used more than Sanders ever was in his entire career. Unless you're a 6-month-old, that should give you pause.


2. QBs AIN'T ALL THAT

Quarterback fiends, I'm about to tick you off.


In 2009, eight of fantasy football's top 10 scorers -- and 14 of the top 20 -- were QBs. But that's actually an argument against drafting them early. Why? It's all about value-based drafting.


VBD is a simple model: A player's VBD rating is calculated by taking his fantasy points and subtracting the fantasy points of the "baseline player" at his position. We determine the baseline player by figuring how many guys at each position are typically drafted within the first 100 players; the last one of these top 100 players is that position's baseline player. For QBs in a 10-team league, the baseline player is the 16th-ranked QB, which last year happened to be Carson Palmer, with 198 points. (At other positions, it's the 38th-ranked RB, the 33rd-ranked WR and the ninth-ranked TE.)

Now, when you look at the VBD ratings below, you see that just one QB figures in our "value" top 10. Your takeaway: There's a whole pack of gunslingers who score roughly the same number of points, so it's unwise to put a premium on drafting one early. Of course, this same chart would seem to indicate that drafting Aaron Rodgers in Round 1 makes sense, because he distinguished himself from his QB peers in 2009. But past performance doesn't indicate future return. In each of the past four seasons, exactly one QB has wound up in the VBD top 10. And in each season, it's been a different QB. In 2009 it was Rodgers. In '08 it was Drew Brees. In '07, Tom Brady. In '06, Peyton Manning.


So will Rodgers rise again this year, as our cover story suggests? Maybe. Then again, so could Brees, Brady or Manning. Or Kevin Kolb. Is it really worth a first-rounder to find out if you can guess right?


3. MALCOLM FLOYD IS NEARLY VINCENT JACKSON'S EQUAL

Floyd's 10.8 overall yards per attempt for the Chargers in 2009 ranked seventh in the league and placed him only half a yard behind VJax's 11.3 YPA mark. Forget about Jackson and his contract issues; pick Floyd later in your draft and get more bang for your buck.

4. BOOKENDS RULE

Does the No. 1 pick really give you an edge? Is the last pick really the worst?


Yes. And no.


We studied every fantasy draft from 1999 to 2009 and posed this question: What would happen if we redrafted each year based on average draft position? For instance, before the 2002 season, the top five in ADP were Marshall Faulk, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Kurt Warner and Ricky Williams. So in our '02 redraft, those were the first five players selected. After our redrafts, we calculated how each of the resulting fantasy teams in each of those 10 years stacked up in final points. We did this twice. First we drafted six rounds each year and looked at the actual fantasy points each team accrued. Then, for comparison, we drafted only two rounds per year. The biggest winners were the teams with the first- and second- overall picks. But surprisingly, Team 10 went for the third-highest average point total. In other words, bookends ruled.


5. VINCE YOUNG IS A TOP-10 QB

Don't believe Young has what it takes to be a fantasy starter? Believe this: In Weeks 8 to 15 last season, the Titan racked up 119 points. Prorate that over a full 16-game schedule and it ranks Young in the top 10 at his position in 2009. So there.


6. AGE IS JUST A NUMBER. UNLESS YOU'RE 30 -- THEN IT'S A CURSE

Life is over at 30.


At least that's true for NFL running backs. The evidence couldn't be more clear. Consider that in the history of the game, 109 RBs have amassed 5,000 or more rushing yards in their careers. Those 109 backs experienced a 14.3% decrease in rushing yards per game and 12.8% in scrimmage yards per game from their age-29 to age-30 seasons. Their age-30 numbers also showed drops of over 30% in both categories from their age-25 campaigns. Age-30 RBs were also less durable than their younger selves, averaging 12.6 games played, or one fewer than at any age from 24 to 27.


Fortunately for fantasy GMs, there aren't any high-profile names joining the age-30 club in 2010. But Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward will be 30 this season, and each has a stake in his team's rushing competition. Meanwhile, LaDainian Tomlinson (31), Thomas Jones (32), Chester Taylor (31) and Ricky Williams (33) also enter 2010 on the wrong side of 30. Beware.


Conversely, our study shows it's 25-year-olds who have the greatest statistical potential of any age group. The following eight names will play the majority of the 2010 ­season at the ripe age of 25: Reggie Bush, Justin Forsett, Shonn Greene, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney, Adrian Peterson and Pierre Thomas. Go and get some.


7. WEST IS THE BEST

It's a sickening feeling. Your star, who plays in the second set of games on Sunday, is listed as questionable. Meanwhile, your top backup plays in the first set of games. If you start the backup, there's no going back; he's locked into your lineup once his game begins. If you start the star, there's also no going back; if he doesn't play, you can't retroactively start your backup. So what to do?


Actually, it's easy: Avoid these spots altogether by drafting backups who play a majority of their games in later time slots. Enter the chart below, in which each team is listed with the number of its early games (1 p.m. ET Sunday or earlier) and later games (4 p.m. ET or later). Looking at this chart, you'll discover that Oakland's Chaz Schilens makes for an ideal backup, as he plays in 12 games in the later slots. That will provide you with more lineup flexibility -- which translates into a better shot at winning.


8. THE NEXT MILES AUSTIN IS OUT THERE


JACOBY JONES HOU
(6'2", 214 pounds, 4.5 40)
He looked like a better sleeper before Kevin Walter re-signed in Houston, but this kid has spent three years getting injuries and knuckleheadedness behind him and has learned from Andre Johnson, a man whose size and speed he nearly mirrors.


DEVIN AROMASHODU CHI
(6'2", 201, 4.35)
He exploded in last season's final month and could benefit from Mike Martz's new Bears offense. Don't get carried away, because he's not even guaranteed to start. But "Aroma" has a size-speed combo that none of the other Chicago receivers can match.
CHAZ SCHILENS OAK
(6'4", 225, 4.38)
A 2008 seventh-rounder, Schilens looked ready to grab the Raiders' No. 1 receiving job last season but broke a bone in his foot in camp. He's got Jason Campbell under center now, which is obviously an improvement over JaMarcus Russell, but take note that Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy also both fit the Moneyball criteria, so there's potential for some fantasy cannibalism here. (Blecch!)


LAURENT ROBINSON STL
(6'2", 197, 4.38)
He was on his way to being the Rams' No. 1 receiver last year but broke his leg in Week 3. If he's still got that downfield speed, he's a major sleeper, especially if Sam Bradford can play.


JAMES HARDY BUF
(6'5", 220, 4.47)
He missed most of 2009 with a torn ACL and has never proved he "gets it." But he's just entering his third season, and there isn't much depth in Buffalo. If he hasn't lost a step, look out.


9. BRANDON MARSHALL IS NOT A HOME RUN HITTER

His 8.5 YPA on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield the past two years ranks him 52nd out of 57 receivers with 48 or more vertical targets. So think of the new Dolphin as more Wes Welker than Randy Moss.


10. YARDS AND TDs ARE NO MATCH FOR THE POWER OF YACo

Whether you're evaluating players for your draft or deciding which guys may be worth a midseason pickup, using the same old metrics as the next guy is a recipe for lameness. Here are several cutting-edge statistics, all available in various corners of the World Wide Web, that can help you get a beat on a breakout.

YACo (yards after contact)
YACo measures a running back's elusiveness, toughness and hunger. Did you know: Chris Johnson led the NFL with 1,071 YACo in 2009, while Jamaal Charles' 3.6 YACo per attempt was the league's highest?

CPT (catches per target)
Simply, how many times a receiver hauls in a pass thrown his way. CPT measures both his hands and his QB's ability to get him the ball. Did you know: Calvin Johnson was the only wideout with at least 50 catches to post a CPT below 50% in '09?


Catch % (catch rate; catches/[catches + drops])
A more QB-independent measure of a receiver's hands. Did you know: Greg Camarillo was the only wideout with at least 50 grabs in 2009 to post a 100% catch rate?


GZT (gold zone targets)
The number of targets a receiver gets from inside an opponent's 10. These are far more likely to turn into TDs than red zone targets (inside the 20) are. Did you know: Reggie Wayne led the NFL with 15 GZT in 2009?


YPA (yards per attempt) Measures a QB's (and his offense's) willingness to throw downfield. Did you know: Supposedly big-armed Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer averaged 6.6 YPA in 2009, tying them for 19th among starting QBs?


11. GREG OLSEN HAS UPSIDE OOZING OUT HIS MOPPY HAIR

Forget the talk about Mike Martz not using his tight end. "Mad Mike" knows how to target quality matchups, and no tight end has more of those than Olsen. Six of the Bears' opponents in 2010 ranked in the bottom five in points allowed to the position last season.


12. EVEN WHEN HELL AND GREEN BAY FREEZE OVER, DON'T SIT YOUR BIG WEAPONS

There's a misconception that games played in bad weather -- especially those frigid Sundays in late December -- always result in teams shutting down the pass in favor of nonstop handoffs. But a look at 17 of the coldest games in NFL history shows that teams behave unpredictably in extreme conditions. Yes, they ditch the pass sometimes. But not consistently enough that you should bench a top QB or QR in anticipation of a cold-weather meltdown.

13. LET THE BYE BE WITH YOU

For some owners, there's nothing more irritating than having a bunch of players sharing the same bye. For the savvy owner, it's pure genius.


So let us introduce bye-stacking, a draft strategy in which you choose to maximize the number of your players who share an off-week. You might think it's ridiculous to draft a starting lineup in which all players share the same bye, as you'll be all but guaranteed to lose that week, but you'll also be fielding a lineup that is at 100% the rest of the bye-week season (Weeks 4-10), while your rivals are forced to start one or two subs. When you figure that replacing a starter with a reserve is likely to cost a team four points per sub, you're giving yourself a four- to 12-point advantage in six of your seven games.


For this season, Week 8 provides the best opportunity to bye-stack and walk away from your draft with the greatest amount of talent, though Weeks 4 and 7 offer solid options as well. Here's a look at your Week 8 options. Feel the genius.


QUARTERBACKS
Eli Manning NYG
Jay Cutler CHI
Joe Flacco BAL
Kevin Kolb PHI
Matt Ryan ATL


RUNNING BACKS
Brandon Jacobs NYG
Jerome Harrison CLE
LeSean McCoy PHI
Matt Forte CHI
Michael Turner ATL
Ray Rice BAL


TIGHT ENDS
Brent Celek PHI
Greg Olsen CHI
Tony Gonzalez ATL
WIDE RECEIVERS
Anquan Boldin BAL
DeSean Jackson PHI
Hakeem Nicks NYG
Jeremy Maclin PHI
Roddy White ATL
Steve Smith NYG
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Camp Preview: Storylines
There are hundreds of storylines out there as NFL training camps get underway this week. The problem is that there are a ton out there that I don't care about. How much money will Sam Bradford get? Way too much. Will Albert Haynesworth actually show up and play nice? Yawn. What is the exact date that Brett Favre will get into Vikings camp? We're all fatigued on that story.

That isn't to say that the next month won't be very, very interesting for those of us that only care about fantasy impacts. Here are the top-5 stories I'll be watching for as we go camping:

1. IS WES WELKER REALLY HEALTHY?
A spat of conflicting reports emerged last week about Welker's knee. First, 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston reported that Welker would be fully cleared for all training camp activities. The Boston Globe confirmed that report, saying that Welker is expected to pass his physical and be on the field for the first practice.

Note that the timing of when Welker gets back on the field is important here. If the report is true and Welker doesn't start the year on the training camp PUP list, he is not eligible to go on the regular season PUP list. The regular season PUP list is the one that makes players inactive for the first six weeks of the season.

So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Boston Herald and ESPN's Mike Reiss put the brakes on the 98.5 report. According to the Herald, the Patriots "haven't etched anything in stone" and they are actually leaning toward starting Welker on the camp PUP list. That would be the prudent move, if only to give the team some roster flexibility.

The bottom line is that everyone wants to see if Welker really is superhuman. He's just six months removed from ACL surgery and also had reconstructive shoulder surgery during the offseason. It's almost ridiculous to think he's 100 percent and ready for two-a-days already. For now, the slot machine is firmly on my "do not draft" list no matter what. He'll have to really pop out at camp to change that and I still don't expect that to happen.

Editor's Note: To see exact projections for Welker, get the draft guide!

2. WHERE WILL TERRELL OWENS LAND?
If you haven't been following the T..O. saga, it's apparently down to the Rams or the Bengals. Other teams may be interested if they have an injury in camp, but those two are in it right now. In fact, ESPN reported that the Rams could make an offer to Owens as soon as Monday. And Bengals owner Mike Brown is making it sound like the ball is in T.O.'s court.

Where Owens lands is vital because of who it effects. If he ends up in St. Louis, he's the No. 1 and Donnie Avery/Laurent Robinson lose a lot of their flier status. If it's Cincy, we know that Antonio Bryant's knee is a major concern. Just the simple fact that the Bengals are still being linked to Owens makes me want to stay far, far away from Bryant.

3. HOW WILL THE VINCENT JACKSON SITUATION SHAKE OUT?
Jackson's average draft position (ADP) is currently 71.2 because of his contract situation and three-game suspension. That's a very volatile number. Any news regarding Jackson's holdout and that number will soar. It will also greatly affect the outlook for Malcom Floyd, who currently has an ADP of 104.1 and Legedu Naanee, who is at 208.8.

The Chargers have admitted that a trade is possible, but they say they are also very prepared to play the season without their star receiver. If I was drafting today, I wouldn't touch Jackson before the ninth round or so. I'd also be more than happy to take a flier on Floyd.

4. POSITION BATTLES
I made an extensive list of the position battles we'll be tracking over on Pancake Blocks. Here's a little more detail on the three that really have my juices going:

A) Darren McFadden vs. Michael Bush for the Raiders' No. 1 RB job:
Despite explosive open-field skills, McFadden has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in his two-year career. That's because he goes down on first contact and is constantly nicked. The same can't be said for Bush, a rugged runner that has averaged 4.6 yards per tote in his career.

Still, McFadden remains the better fantasy prospect in my eyes. With JaMarcus Russell gone and the actual threat of a passing game therefore present, there should be more space for McFadden to operate. With a big camp, he'd be a steal at his current ADP of 77.43 -- especially in PPR formats.

B) Rashard Mendenhall vs. Jonathan Dwyer vs. Isaac Redman for the Steelers' goal-line RB job:
Right now, I'd take Mendenhall over Steven Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Jamaal Charles and Shonn Greene. But if he loses out on the wide-open goal-line gig, I'll be forced to reconsider.

Dwyer is a major threat after scoring 27 touchdowns in the last two seasons at Georgia Tech. He's a bulldozer at 6'0/228, but he lasted until the sixth round of April's draft for a reason. Perhaps he's not NFL-ready after playing in the triple option at Tech. The Steelers' staff hasn't shied away from talking about the goal-line competition, so we should find out in camp what their plans are.

C) Pierre Garcon vs. Anthony Gonzalez vs. Austin Collie for the Colts' No. 2 WR/slot job
Gonzalez is the wild card here as he finally appears ready to go full speed. But even if last year's fantasy sleeper-turned-bust is healthy, can he really beat out Garcon, who was so impressive last year? It's really hard to see that happening, but the Colts are going to give A-Gonz a chance.

In the slot, Collie showed signs of being a Wes Welker-type. But if Gonzalez focuses on the slot full time, it will be tough for Collie to hold off a former first-round pick. It's a muddy situation thanks to Gonzalez's injury and one that bears close watching.

5. HOW WILL TIM TEBOW BE USED?
We know Tebow will be on the field, but how much and in what role? Will the Broncos unveil a special Red Zone package for Tebow to run out of their "Wild Horses" formation? If so, Knowshon Moreno and Kyle Orton would get a decent downgrade. Obviously, Tebow was remarkably effective at running the ball for scores while at Florida.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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Dynasty Startup Mock

Top-200 lists, such as the one in Rotoworld's 2010 Fantasy Draft Guide, are handy tools for comparative trade values. For a better read on Dynasty startup draft trends, though, I came up with the idea of a one-man mock. In other words, I'll be drafting for all 12 teams. A few things to keep in mind about this startup:

For purposes of my own amusement, I've named each team and broken them down into two divisions: Coaches' Corner and Writer's Block.

This draft is for a standard scoring league (no PPR) with a starting lineup consisting of the following: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FL, 1 K, 1 D.

It's late July and rosters are starting from scratch. That means talented young players will gain even more value at the expense of veterans about to reach the decline stage. While contenders in established leagues can afford to mortgage part of their future for an in-season playoff run, no owner will benefit from loading up on aging veterans in a startup league.

Part of the fun of Dynasty leagues is watching teams take on unique personalities, much like NFL teams do (smashmouth Steelers, renegade Raiders, etc.). Where it was sensible and expedient, I tried to do the same here. For example, Gent's Depraved Boozers (North Dallas Forty), really is full of degenerate boozers. Every league needs a character careless team like the Cincinnati Bengals.

For space purposes, I've left off a full view of the final rosters. Those interested can check out rosters for the one-man startup mock on our Pancake Blocks Blog.

On to the draft:

Round One

1. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Chris Johnson, RB, TEN
2. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
3. Mini Ditka - Maurice Jones, RB, JAX
4. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Ray Rice, RB, BAL
5. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
6. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
7. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
8. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
9. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
10. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Drew Brees, QB, NO
11. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Frank Gore, RB, SF
12. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

Notes: The concern over Fitzgerald's QB situation has been overblown, and he has two years on Andre Johnson. ... Mendenhall is a talented, young three-down back playing for an ideal franchise. ... The last half of a startup first-round should always be filled with quarterbacks and wide receivers, which offer far more stability and long-term value than second tier running backs.

Round Two

13. Gent's Depraved Boozers - DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
14. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Miles Austin, WR, DAL
15. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
16. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Steven Jackson, RB, STL
17. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
18. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
19. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
20. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Beanie Wells, RB, ARI
21. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Peyton Manning, QB, IND
22. Mini Ditka - Tony Romo, QB, DAL
23. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Roddy White, WR, ATL
24. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Greg Jennings, WR, GB

Notes: Gent handcuffs elite talents Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, both of whom are startable in 2010. ... Manning has five more years of Top-Six finishes left. His age isn't a serious concern yet. ... Too many Dynasty leaguers are still sleeping on Jamaal Charles.

Round Three

25. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Philip Rivers, QB, SD
26. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
27. Mini Ditka - Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
28. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Sidney Rice, WR, MIN
29. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Jahvid Best, RB, DET
30. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Michael Turner, RB, ATL
31. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Tom Brady, QB, NE
32. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
33. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Felix Jones, RB, DAL
34. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
35. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Marques Colston, WR, NO
36. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Vincent Jackson, WR, SD

Notes: I contemplated taking Bryant even higher. He's a legit Top-10 receiver in Dynasty circles. ... Dallas, perhaps the league's most dynamic offense going forward, has four players drafted in the past two rounds. ... V-Jax is a steal at the end of the third round if an owner can afford to be patient.

<!--RW-->

Round Four

37. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA
38. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
39. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Randy Moss, WR, NE
40. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
41. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Steve Smith, WR, CAR
42. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
43. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
44. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
45. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
46. Mini Ditka - LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
47. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Steve Smith, WR, NYG
48. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Ryan Grant, RB, GB

Notes: Marshall is coming off a second hip surgery in as many years while going from a pass-oriented offense to a run-oriented offense. I'd let someone else draft him. ... Steve Smith South remains a far better talent than Steve Smith North. Hicks is a more dominant talent for the Giants. ... Where does Randy Moss play in 2011?

Round Five

49. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
50. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Joe Flacco, QB, BAL
51. Mini Ditka - Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
52. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Antonio Gates, TE, SD
53. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Jay Cutler, QB, CHI
54. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Dallas Clark, TE, IND
55. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Matt Forte, RB, CHI
56. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Donald Brown, RB, IND
57. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Vernon Davis, TE, SF
58. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Jason Witten, TE, DAL
59. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Brent Celek, TE, PHI
60. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT

Notes: It's a run on tight ends. While the position is deep for redrafters, there's a clear top-six hierarchy in Dynasty leagues. ... Donald Brown should be the first Indy back off the board with Addai's contract up after the season. ... Bad Ben remains a top-five talent at QB, so this is great value.

Round Six

61. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
62. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI
63. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA
64. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN
65. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
66. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAX
67. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
68. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE
69. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
70. Mini Ditka - Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
71. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Joseph Addai, RB, IND
72. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Wes Welker, WR, NE

Notes: Considering his injury history and off-field shenanigans, Benson lacks stability without a contract extension. ... Kolb is loaded with young weapons, but he has to prove pocket presence. ... Hardesty has considerably more value than Jerome Harrison. ... Let someone else take Welker coming off major knee surgery with Moss' Patriots future up in the air.

Round Seven

73. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Johnny Knox, WR, CHI
74. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Robert Meachem, WR, NO
75. Mini Ditka - Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
76. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Pierre Garcon, WR, IND
77. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
78. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ
79. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
80. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Ben Tate, RB, HOU
81. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
82. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Hines Ward, WR, PIT
83. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Santana Moss, WR, WAS
84. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Kellen Winslow, TE, TB

Notes: This is a green light for Knox. Go get him. ... The numbers don't support it, but McFadden is a gut-feel breakout candidate for me. ... Hines Ward and Santana Moss are the best of this year's under-appreciated veterans.

Round Eight

85. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Mike Williams, WR, TB
86. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Eli Manning, QB, NYG
87. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
88. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Marion Barber, RB, DAL
89. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Zach Miller, TE, OAK
90. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Michael Bush, RB, OAK
91. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Brett Favre, QB, MIN
92. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
93. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
94. Mini Ditka - Chris Cooley, TE, WAS
95. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL
96. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Devin Hester, WR, CHI

Notes: Don't draft Bradshaw expecting a future feature back. He's always going to be in a committee attack. ... Zach Miller, still under 25, is the best value in the draft at tight end. ... Stafford is set up for fantasy success with a potentially potent aerial attack to go with a defense that can't stop the pass. ... I prefer Williams to Benn in Tampa. ... Favre remains a weekly asset, and he could play again in 2011.

<!--RW-->

Round Nine

97. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Reggie Bush, RB, NO
98. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS
99. Mini Ditka - Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ
100. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Austin Collie, WR, IND
101. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - John Carlson, TE, SEA
102. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
103. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Heath Miller, TE, PIT
104. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Golden Tate, WR, SEA
105. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Lee Evans, WR, BUF
106. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU
107. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Marshawn Lynch, RB, BUF
108. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Antonio Bryant, WR, CIN

Notes: Similar to Johnny Knox, this is a green-light ranking for Jacoby Jones. Go get him before he breaks out. ... Collie is easily the most underrated of the Indy receivers. He's the real deal. ... Lynch is still under 25 with a feature back's talent and pedigree. ... Don't touch Antonio Bryant.

Round Ten

109. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Chad Henne, QB, MIA
110. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Steve Breaston, WR, ARI
111. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ
112. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Arrelious Benn, WR, TB
113. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Steve Slaton, RB, HOU
114. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Sam Bradford, QB, STL
115. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
116. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, CLE
117. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Willis McGahee, RB, BAL
118. Mini Ditka - Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
119. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN
120. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Josh Freeman, QB, TB

Notes: Breaston is going too high for my taste. He's far from a sure bet to hold off Early Doucet. ... As we've been saying for over a year now, Slaton is a brittle passing-down back -- not a feature back. ... Floyd's value is wholly dependent on Vincent Jackson.

Round Eleven

121. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Greg Olsen, TE, CHI
122. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Donald Driver, WR, GB
123. Mini Ditka - Vince Young, QB, TEN
124. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Anthony Gonzalez, WR, IND
125. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Carson Palmer, QB, CIN
126. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Justin Forsett, RB, SEA
127. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN
128. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Arian Foster, RB, HOU
129. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Laurence Maroney, RB, NE
130. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Ricky Williams, RB, MIA
131. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Tashard Choice, RB, DAL
132. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Bernard Scott, RB, CIN

Notes: Olsen better hope the current coaching staff is canned after the season. ... I still have major reservations about Gonzalez's knee and Palmer's elbow. ... Let someone else draft Forsett. He lacks special ability and staying power. ... Foster and Choice are better bets to emerge as a long-term starters. ... Think Ahmad Bradshaw with Bernard Scott. He's going to be a share-the-load back if he ever gets a shot.

Round Twelve

133. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Fred Davis, TE, WAS
134. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI
135. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE
136. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Donnie Avery, WR, STL
137. Plimpton's Paper Lions - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA
138. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Chester Taylor, RB, CHI
139. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Tim Tebow, QB, DEN
140. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Tim Hightower, RB, ARI
141. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Clinton Portis, RB, WAS
142. Mini Ditka - Chaz Schilens, WR, OAK
143. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - James Jones, WR, GB
144. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Javon Ringer, RB, TEN

Notes: These are do not draft grades for Harrison, Hightower, and Portis. Let someone else waste a pick on their fleeting starting value. ... Schilens and Jones are breakout candidates, though Jones is not a lock to hold off Jordy Nelson. ... Ringer is merely a handcuff pick.

Round Thirteen

145. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Eddie Royal, WR, DEN
146. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Tony Scheffler, TE, DET
147. Mini Ditka - Deji Karim, RB, JAX
148. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN
149. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Devin Thomas, WR, WAS
150. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
151. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Laurent Robinson, WR, STL
152. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Visanthe Schiancoe, TE, MIN
153. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Matt Leinart, QB, ARI
154. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Early Doucet, WR, ARI
155. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Cadillac Williams, RB, TB
156. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Terrell Owens, WR, CIN

Notes: Deji Karim is one of my favorite deep sleepers, but he'll have to be stashed for several years. ... Robinson, Thomas and Doucet have breakout potential, but the latter two may be another year away. ... Let someone else draft Caddy and Schiancoe.

<!--RW-->

Round Fourteen

157. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Roy Williams, WR, DAL
158. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Derrick Ward, RB, TB
159. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Thomas Jones, RB, KC
160. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Darren Sproles, RB, SD
161. Plimpton's Paper Lions - David Garrard, QB, JAX
162. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT
163. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Mike Thomas, WR, JAX
164. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
165. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Larry Johnson, RB, WAS
166. Mini Ditka - Charles Scott, RB, PHI
167. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
168. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Jabar Gaffney, WR, DEN

Notes: Like Karim last round, Scott is one of my favorite deep sleepers. He has quick feet for a big back and should be the long-term complement to Shady McCoy. ... Mike Thomas is best used as a slot receiver, so don't expect a future fantasy star. ... For 2010, I prefer Larry Johnson to Clinton Portis and Jabar Gaffney to Eddie Royal.

Round Fifteen

169. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Eric Decker, WR, DEN
170. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ
171. Mini Ditka - Brandon Tate, WR, NE
172. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Louis Murphy, WR, OAK
173. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Kevin Smith, RB, DET
174. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE
175. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Derrick Mason, WR, BAL
176. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Julian Edelman, WR, NE
177. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
178. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAk
179. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
180. Gent's Depraved Boozers - James Starks, RB, GB

Notes: Let someone else draft Tomlinson, Mason, and Kevin Smith. ... Jimmy Graham, Hernandez, and Gronkowski are talented stashes. It may be two years before the results surface. ... Decker, Tate, Edelman, and Starks are wildcards.

Round Sixteen

181. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Jimmy Clausen, QB, CAR
182. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Devery Henderson, WR, NO
183. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Jets Defense, D/ST, NYJ
184. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
185. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Brian Westbrook, RB, UFA
186. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Chris Chambers, WR, KC
187. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Leon Washington, RB, SEA
188. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Matt Cassel, QB, KC
189. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Jared Cook, TE, TEN
190. Mini Ditka - Rashad Jennings, RB, JAX
191. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Vikings D, D/ST, MIN
192. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Anthony Dixon, RB, SF

Notes: Shockey is close to the end. ... Cassel has the look of a one-year Patriots wonder. Let someone else reach for him. ... I'm not sure what makes Dixon a better prospect than Glen Coffee. ... Jared Cook is one more year away.

Round Seventeen

193. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Cowboys D, D/ST, DAL
194. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Joe McKnight, RB, NYJ
195. Mini Ditka - Legedu Naanee, WR, SD
196. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Josh Morgan, WR, SF
197. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Nate Burleson, WR, DET
198. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Jason Snelling, RB, ATL
199. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Alex Smith, QB, SF
200. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Damian Williams, WR, TEN
201. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Jason Campbell, QB, OAK
202. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Kevin Boss, TE, NYG
203. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Michael Vick, QB, PHI
204. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Mardy Gilyard, WR, STL

Notes: Interesting QB3s in this round. ... I have no faith in Alex Smith as the answer in San Fran, but the beat writers are going ga-ga over him this year. ... Campbell, in my opinion, is a better bet to make it through the season as the starter. ... I wouldn't be surprised if Vick has another Top-10 fantasy finish left in him.

Round Eighteen

205. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Eagles D, D/ST, PHI
206. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Packers D, D/ST, GB
207. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR
208. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Brian Hartine, WR, MIA
209. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Kyle Orton, QB, DEN
210. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Deon Butler, WR, SEA
211. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Jerious Norwood, RB, ATL
212. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Packers D, D/ST, GB
213. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Steelers D, D/ST, PIT
214. Mini Ditka - Taylor Price, WR, NE
215. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET
216. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Glen Coffee, RB, SF

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Editor's Note: For updated projections, customized cheat sheets, the most accurate rankings, and Chris Wesseling's Dynasty league coverage, check out Rotoworld's Fantasy 2010 Draft Guide!

Round Nineteen

217. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Earl Bennett, WR, CHI
218. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Jarret Dillard, WR, JAX
219. Mini Ditka - Ravens D, D/ST, BAL
220. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Todd Heap, TE, BAL
221. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Garrett Hartley, K, NO
222. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Julius Jones, RB, SEA
223. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Stephen Gostkowski, K, NE
224. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Giants D, D/ST, NYG
225. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Saints D, D/ST, NO
226. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Ryan Longwell, K, MIN
227. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Kevin Walter, WR, HOU
228. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Matt Moore, QB, CAR

Round Twenty

229. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Ben Watson, TE, CLE
230. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Nate Kaeding, K, SD
231. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Martellus Bennett, TE, DAL
232. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - David Akers, K, PHI
233. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Rob Bironas, K, TEN
234. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - 49ers D, D/ST, SF
235. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Bengals D, D/ST, CIN
236. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Armanti Edwards, WR, CAR
237. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Shayne Graham, K, BAL
238. Mini Ditka - Mike Bell, RB, PHI
239. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Jordan Shipley, WR, CIN
240. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Lynell Hamilton, RB, NO

Round Twenty-One

241. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Mason Crosby, K, GB
242. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Robbie Gould, K, CHI
243. Mini Ditka - Jeff Reed, K, PIT
244. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Emmanuel Sanders, WR, PIT
245. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Davone Bess, WR, MIA
246. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Matt Prater, K, DEN
247. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Andre Roberts, WR, ARI
248. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
249. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Shawnbrey McNeal, RB, SD
250. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA
251. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Lex Hilliard, RB, MIA
252. Gent's Depraved Boozers - LenDale White, RB, UFA

Round Twenty-Two

253. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Jay Feely, K, ARI
254. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - Harry Douglas, WR, ATL
255. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Charlie Whitehurst, QB, SEA
256. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Lance Moore, WR, NO
257. Plimpton's Paper Lions - Willie Parker, RB, WAS
258. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Bo Scaife, TE, TEN
259. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Correll Buckhalter, RB, DEN
260. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - James Davis, RB, CLE
261. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Colt McCoy, QB, CLE
262. Mini Ditka - Buster Davis, WR, SD
263. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - John Skelton, QB, ARI
264. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - Brandon Jackson, RB, GB

Round Twenty-Three

265. Mora's Playoff Pipe Dreams - LeGarrette Blount, RB, TEN
266. Denny Green's Arse Crowners - Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL
267. Mini Ditka - Trent Edwards, QB, BUF
268. Tuna's Big Cigars & Motorcars - Ed Dickson, TE, BAL
269. Vermeil's Crocodile Tears - Tony Moeaki, TE, KC
270. Shula's Champagne Poppers - Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAX
271. Jenkins' Semi-Tough Sumbitches - Carlton Mitchell, WR, CLE
272. Plimpton's Paper Lions - James Hardy, WR, BUF
273. Exley's Self-Loathing Anti-Heroes - Justin Gage, WR, TEN
274. Cosell's Cocksure Carnival Barkers - Gary Barnidge, TE, CAR
275. Blount's Three Bricks Shy - James Casey, TE, HOU
276. Gent's Depraved Boozers - Plaxico Burress, WR, UFA
 

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PPR Industry Draft Recap
Last week, I participated in a 12-team, NFL.com "experts" league draft. The league awards one point per reception, six points per rushing and receiving touchdown, and four points per passing score. We start one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a "flex" (receiver or running back), tight end, and a kicker and defense. The league will be played out; it wasn't just a mock.

With PPR scoring and the ability to start as many as four receivers, my plan going into the draft was to emerge deep at wideout. Let's see how I did.

Editor's Note: Dominate your own league with the 2010 Rotoworld Draft Guide.

Round One

1.1. Titans RB Chris Johnson
1.2. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew
1.3. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson
1.4. Ravens RB Ray Rice
1.5. 49ers RB Frank Gore
1.6. Rams RB Steven Jackson
1.7. Texans WR Andre Johnson
1.8. Falcons RB Michael Turner
1.9. Rotoworld - Lions WR Calvin Johnson
1.10. Patriots WR Randy Moss
1.11. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
1.12. Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall

Comments: CJ2K, MJD, Peterson, Rice, and Gore make up the top five in virtually all re-draft leagues. It's always interesting to see which running back goes off the board sixth. Here it was Jackson, who got the nod over Turner due to the PPR scoring. ... I don't like drafting toward the back end of round one in a league like this, so I went with a player I'm high on and confident in, even though it might be perceived as a "reach." I just wouldn't be surprised if at this time next year Calvin Johnson has joined Andre Johnson as a consensus first-round fantasy receiver.

Round Two

2.1. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews
2.2. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald
2.3. Saints QB Drew Brees
2.4. Rotoworld - Saints RB Pierre Thomas
2.5. Colts WR Reggie Wayne
2.6. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles
2.7. Eagles WR DeSean Jackson
2.8. Cowboys WR Miles Austin
2.9. Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams
2.10. Packers RB Ryan Grant
2.11. Dolphins WR Brandon Marshall
2.12. Colts QB Peyton Manning

Comments: Mathews continues to be over-drafted. While he has a strong chance at a solid first season, the potentially lengthy absences of holdouts Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson hurt Mathews as much as any Chargers skill player. V-Jax is arguably the best run-blocking wideout in the game, and McNeill is one of the few sure things on San Diego's line. ... My decision at 2.4 came down to Thomas, Charles, and Williams. Thomas got the nod because his offense is the most trustworthy and he's the best bet for double-digit touchdowns.

Round Three

3.1. Bengals RB Cedric Benson
3.2. Saints WR Marques Colston
3.3. Falcons WR Roddy White
3.4. Cowboys QB Tony Romo
3.5. Vikings WR Sidney Rice
3.6. Jets RB Shonn Greene
3.7. Patriots QB Tom Brady
3.8. Packers WR Greg Jennings
3.9. Rotoworld - Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart
3.10. Cardinals RB Chris Wells
3.11. Colts TE Dallas Clark
3.12. Giants WR Steve Smith

Comments: I can't imagine drafting Benson over Greene, let alone Stewart, but CedBen was the 14th running back off the board. Short on receiving skills, Benson has never in his career finished better than the No. 20 overall back in PPR. ... I would've preferred Jennings at 3.9, but he went one pick before me. I was happy to "settle" for the most talented tailback in Carolina, even if it meant going against my strategy entering the draft. Stewart was easily the best value left.

Round Four

4.1. Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco
4.2. Ravens WR Anquan Boldin
4.3. Chargers TE Antonio Gates
4.4. Rotoworld - Lions RB Jahvid Best
4.5. Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno
4.6. Eagles RB LeSean McCoy
4.7. 49ers TE Vernon Davis
4.8. Panthers WR Steve Smith
4.9. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs
4.10. 49ers WR Michael Crabtree
4.11. Patriots WR Wes Welker
4.12. Colts RB Joseph Addai

Comments: The owner who picked Welker at the end of round four seemed to really reach at the time, but recent reports make the selection look better. It appears Welker will not begin the season on PUP. ... Three tight ends gone by the middle of round four was a surprise, especially in an industry draft. Despite some belief to the contrary, tight end remains an exceptionally deep position in fantasy football. The rest of this draft proves it. ... The Best pick left me even more running back-heavy than I anticipated, but -- again -- I had to stick with value. The rookie should catch 50-plus passes in what may turn out to be a throw-happy Lions offense.

Round Five

5.1. Eagles TE Brent Celek
5.2. Bills RB C.J. Spiller
5.3. Cowboys RB Felix Jones
5.4. Packers TE Jermichael Finley
5.5. Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown
5.6. Bears RB Matt Forte
5.7. Jaguars WR Mike Sims-Walker
5.8. Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe
5.9. Rotoworld - Texans QB Matt Schaub
5.10. Steelers WR Hines Ward
5.11. Chargers WR Vincent Jackson
5.12. Cowboys TE Jason Witten

Comments: The surprising early-round tight end run continued into round five, with three more gone. Just two TEs will be drafted in the next four rounds combined. ... Aside from Jackson -- who went way too early for our tastes -- the fifth-round wideouts were much better values than the fifth-round backs. ... I was hoping for Bowe, but my target again went one spot before I picked. So I went for the quarterback I believed to be head-and-shoulders better than the rest available. Schaub led the league in passing yards last season, finishing as the fifth overall fantasy passer.

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Round Six

6.1. Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin
6.2. Saints RB Reggie Bush
6.3. Bills RB Fred Jackson
6.4. Rotoworld - Giants WR Hakeem Nicks
6.5. Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
6.6. Vikings WR Percy Harvin
6.7. Chargers QB Philip Rivers
6.8. Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez
6.9. Chargers WR Malcom Floyd
6.10. Colts WR Pierre Garcon
6.11. Bears QB Jay Cutler
6.12. Steelers WR Mike Wallace

Comments: Bush stands out as the poorest value of the round. While his role may expand some, I certainly wouldn't bet an early sixth-round pick on it. Bush averaged 8.4 touches per game last season, and it seemed to work out okay for the Saints. ... With his top receiver and left tackle holding out, I'd have a hard time drafting Rivers ahead of Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Brett Favre, and Joe Flacco. ... As explained last week, I like Nicks' chances of emerging as the Giants' No. 1 receiver this year. He's a better value in the sixth than teammate Steve Smith was in the third.

Round Seven

7.1. Saints WR Robert Meachem
7.2. Eagles QB Kevin Kolb
7.3. Vikings QB Brett Favre
7.4. Bears WR Devin Aromashodu
7.5. Giants QB Eli Manning
7.6. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant
7.7. Texans TE Owen Daniels
7.8. Ravens QB Joe Flacco
7.9. Rotoworld - Redskins WR Santana Moss
7.10. Texans RB Steve Slaton
7.11. Packers WR Donald Driver
7.12. Cowboys RB Marion Barber

Comments: Aromashodu was surprisingly the first Bears receiver drafted, and he isn't even projected to start. ... Eli Manning going in the seventh round ahead of quarterbacks like Flacco and Matt Ryan was surprising. ... The hype surrounding Bryant is believable, and he was well worth a pick here. The rookie already looks poised to give Miles Austin a run as Dallas' No. 1 receiver. ... Moss is coming off offseason knee surgery and appeared to lose a step last year, but I didn't mind taking him as my WR3. Somebody has to catch Donovan McNabb's passes in D.C.

Round Eight

8.1. Bengals QB Carson Palmer
8.2. Raiders RB Darren McFadden
8.3. Bears WR Johnny Knox
8.4. Rotoworld - Raiders RB Michael Bush
8.5. Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw
8.6. Chiefs RB Thomas Jones
8.7. Bengals WR Antonio Bryant
8.8. Bucs RB Carnell Williams
8.9. Colts RB Donald Brown
8.10. Cardinals WR Steve Breaston
8.11. Seahawks WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
8.12. Ravens WR Derrick Mason

Comments: The Bush-McFadden debate is hot in fantasy circles. Chris Wesseling and Adam Levitan prefer McFadden, while I lean toward Bush. They were both solid values in round eight. ... ESPN's Tristan Cockroft "handcuffed" second-round pick Jamaal Charles with Jones. T.J. will get all of the touches in Kansas City's backfield if Charles goes down, so it's a worthwhile approach. ... Antonio Bryant looks to be the early favorite to emerge as a bust from this round.

Round Nine

9.1. New York Jets Defense
9.2. Bears RB Chester Taylor
9.3. Dolphins RB Ricky Williams
9.4. Free agent WR Terrell Owens
9.5. Redskins RB Clinton Portis
9.6. Giants WR Mario Manningham
9.7. Browns RB Jerome Harrison
9.8. Redskins QB Donovan McNabb
9.9. Rotoworld - Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger
9.10. Bills WR Lee Evans
9.11. Chargers RB Darren Sproles
9.12. Browns RB Montario Hardesty

Comments: Lots of age in this round. I left T.O. as a "free agent" to emphasize that this draft occurred before he signed with Cincinnati. Ultimately, he was a good pick. Let's not rule out 1,000 yards with Carson Palmer when Owens had 829 last year with Trent Edwards. And Ryan Fitzpatrick. And Brian Brohm. ... I love Big Ben as a QB2, even though my QB1 (Matt Schaub) is elite. Roethlisberger's suspension won't hurt me, and he'll be an immediate top 8-10 fantasy quarterback upon return. Gives me insurance in case Schaub reverts to his injury-prone days.

Round Ten

10.1. Bears WR Devin Hester
10.2. Browns WR Joshua Cribbs
10.3. Titans WR Kenny Britt
10.4. Rotoworld - Jets WR Braylon Edwards
10.5. Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe
10.6. Jets WR Santonio Holmes
10.7. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson
10.8. Falcons QB Matt Ryan
10.9. Broncos WR Eddie Royal
10.10. Bucs TE Kellen Winslow
10.11. Texans RB Ben Tate
10.12. Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski

Comments: A round heavy on WR4s. I wanted Britt, but picked Edwards after the Titans' 2009 first-round pick went one spot before me. Though Edwards carries a negative stigma in a run-heavy offense, he'll be focused in a contract year. He's never been so cheap. ... Winslow was the round's ugliest pick. "K2" deserves credit for his impressive recoveries from annual knee surgery, but it will catch up to him at some point. And not a single tight end went in round eleven.

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Round Eleven

11.1. Patriots RB Laurence Maroney
11.2. Rams WR Donnie Avery
11.3. Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery
11.4. Minnesota Vikings Defense
11.5. Chiefs WR Chris Chambers
11.6. Cardinals RB Tim Hightower
11.7. Raiders WR Chaz Schilens
11.8. Texans WR Kevin Walter
11.9. Rotoworld - Packers WR James Jones
11.10. Patriots WR Julian Edelman
11.11. Green Bay Packers Defense
11.12. Dolphins QB Chad Henne

Comments: I entered this round with designs on drafting a high-upside WR5. Apparently, so did everyone else. ... The Vikings were the second defense drafted, and Green Bay was third. Our projections say the Eagles will finish as the No. 1 fantasy defense in 2010, but they didn't go until round twelve.

Round Twelve

12.1. Raiders TE Zach Miller
12.2. Colts WR Austin Collie
12.3. Steelers TE Heath Miller
12.4. Rotoworld - Redskins TE Chris Cooley
12.5. Bills RB Marshawn Lynch
12.6. Philadelphia Eagles Defense
12.7. Jaguars WR Mike Thomas
12.8. Titans QB Vince Young
12.9. Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas
12.10. Baltimore Ravens Defense
12.11. Jaguars RB Rashad Jennings
12.12. 49ers QB Alex Smith

Comments: Finally, a starting tight end. Hoping for the Raiders' Miller, Cooley instead landed on the Rotoworld squad amidst reports he'll be used by Mike Shanahan in a Dallas Clark-like slot receiver role. The plan makes sense due to Washington's weakness at No. 2 receiver.

Round Thirteen

13.1. Lions QB Matthew Stafford
13.2. Titans RB Javon Ringer
13.3. Ravens RB Willis McGahee
13.4. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel
13.5. Broncos WR Jabar Gaffney
13.6. Seahawks WR Golden Tate
13.7. Raiders QB Jason Campbell
13.8. Lions WR Nate Burleson
13.9. Rotoworld - Texans RB Arian Foster
13.10. New Orleans Saints Defense
13.11. Lions RB Kevin Smith
13.12. Pittsburgh Steelers Defense

Comments: While I don't claim to know who the Texans will feature in the running game, I do like to pick at least one of their tailbacks in every draft for upside purposes. There's a school of thought that Gary Kubiak is the next Mike Shanahan in terms of unpredictable running back usage. Just two years ago, however, Kubes gave Steve Slaton 318 touches. Houston is going to field a top-ten offense, so I'd consider getting their current starter a steal in round thirteen.

Round Fourteen

14.1. Saints K Garrett Hartley
14.2. Redskins RB Larry Johnson
14.3. Browns CB Mohamed Massaquoi
14.4. Rotoworld - Bengals RB Bernard Scott
14.5. Dolphins WR Davone Bess
14.6. Eagles RB Mike Bell
14.7. San Francisco 49ers Defense
14.8. Seahawks RB Leon Washington
14.9. Vikings WR Bernard Berrian
14.10. Cardinals QB Matt Leinart
14.11. Chicago Bears Defense
14.12. Cowboys WR Roy Williams

Comments: Kickers, defenses, Roy Williams. My pick was another runner with upside. Cedric Benson is expected to avoid suspension for his recent assault allegation, but Scott's role will expand regardless, particularly if the Bengals incorporate more spread looks as NFL Network's Brian Baldinger predicts. Benson isn't a spread back. Scott also offers starting-caliber talent if forced into a full-time role.

Round Fifteen

15.1. Titans WR Nate Washington
15.2. Saints TE Jeremy Shockey
15.3. Texans WR Jacoby Jones
15.4. Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez
15.5. Dallas Cowboys Defense
15.6. Jets QB Mark Sanchez
15.7. Bears TE Greg Olsen
15.8. Cincinnati Bengals Defense
15.9. Rotoworld - Bears K Robbie Gould
15.10. Bucs RB Derrick Ward
15.11. Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham
15.12. New York Giants Defense

Round Sixteen

16.1. Chiefs WR Dexter McCluster
16.2. Panthers K John Kasay
16.3. Eagles K David Akers
16.4. Rotoworld - Miami Dolphins Defense
16.5. Packers K Mason Crosby
16.6. Chargers K Nate Kaeding
16.7. Vikings K Ryan Longwell
16.8. Titans K Rob Bironas
16.9. Ravens K Shayne Graham
16.10. Broncos K Matt Prater
16.11. Cardinals K Jay Feely
16.12. Seahawks TE John Carlson
 

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Latest risers, fallers in preseason rankings
in.gif


By Eric Karabell


Any good analyst should have the ability to alter his opinions when appropriate, whether it's dealing with the stock market, politics or fantasy sports. While there hasn't been a ton of news for the past few months concerning fantasy football, things have changed for me, even if no statistics have been accrued. You can check out my top 200 rankings as well as our awesome draft kit. Even in July -- and in August, too -- you'll see my rankings change from time to time. Here are some of the risers and fallers since my last update:


Quarterback risers

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: No, he hasn't thrown a pass recently, and I have no idea who he's dating, but I simply think I was underrating him and the second tier of quarterbacks. Romo scored more fantasy points than Tom Brady last season, and I don't view the difference between them as being so large as I had it. Also, I think Dez Bryant will be a terrific weapon -- I hadn't been ranking the rookie well enough, either -- so watch out for this Cowboys' passing offense. Romo moves into my top 45, passing Matt Schaub.
Other QBs up: I tweaked Carson Palmer up a round, thanks to that T.O. guy, and realized I was being a bit tough on Arizona's Matt Leinart. I'm finally ranking him now.


Quarterback fallers



Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens: I originally ranked him my No. 9 quarterback but then someone asked me if I really would select him over Jay Cutler, Eli Manning and Kevin Kolb, and I realized I needed to make a change. Yes, the addition of Anquan Boldin helps, but it doesn't make the Ravens a passing team. Flacco scored fewer points than Jason Campbell and Palmer last season. I do see the upside but think Cutler and Kolb, for example, have more upside. I dropped Flacco to 13th at quarterback. If he becomes Aaron Rodgers, then I guess I miss out.
Other QBs down: I moved Drew Brees and Rodgers out of my overall top 10. What was I originally thinking? If push came to shove, no, I couldn't take a quarterback over Andre Johnson or Michael Turner. I also dropped Alex Smith and Matthew Stafford some when I did more research on their situations. I'd prefer Campbell if all I need in a late round is a safe backup.

<OFFER>

Running back risers



Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks: I won't admit to being a big LenDale White fan, but I did think he had great opportunity in the Pacific Northwest. Now he has no opportunity, of course. But Forsett does. I think new coach Pete Carroll has already learned Forsett can handle the bulk of the carries, which is why punting White made sense (along with other reasons). Julius Jones might think he's in a timeshare, but I think Forsett is close to being a No. 2 RB.
Other RBs up: I moved Fred Jackson of the Buffalo Bills up the same three rounds I did Forsett. I think Jackson is the guy there, and rookie C.J. Spiller gets used like Reggie Bush does. I also moved San Diego's Ryan Mathews into my top 25 overall. I don't often like rookies but he's in a special situation.


Running back fallers

Shonn Greene, New York Jets: I had plenty of time to evaluate the LaDainian Tomlinson signing from March, so that's not really the reason I moved Greene from 15th overall to 20. That is a drop. I feel like the Jets will be somewhat cautious with him, more so than I believed months ago. Maybe it's the potential for injury or the fact the team seems intent on improving the passing game, but I probably had Greene overranked some. Maybe I still do. Jamaal Charles and Cedric Benson are two running backs I would now select earlier in Round 2.
Other RBs down: For much the same reasons I moved Greene down, I did the same with Felix Jones. Let's face it: Marion Barber isn't as fried as Tomlinson. It also seems like the Cleveland Browns might distribute the carries between Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison, so I made the gap smaller.


Wide receiver risers



Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers: I really do believe we won't see Vincent Jackson in a Chargers uniform until at least midseason, if at all. Floyd went from a 16th-rounder into my top 100. Don't expect Jackson numbers, but he's as good a risk as Devin Aromashodu and Kevin Walter, whom I also like.
Other WRs up: Fellow Charger Legedu Naanee also entered my top 200. He might have even more upside than Floyd. Terrell Owens didn't make my top 100 but certainly moved up. Being employed does that. Wes Welker is in my top 100. I'm convinced he plays in Week 1, and I'll surmise he'll be a top-25 wide receiver for me soon. I also moved the top Oakland Raiders wide receivers -- no, that statement in itself is not ridiculous -- up a bit. Jason Campbell is a top-20 quarterback; his weapons should reflect it.


Wide receiver fallers



Antonio Bryant, Cincinnati Bengals: I had him ranked No. 76 overall. Yikes. Now he doesn't make my top 60 wide receivers. The T.O. signing had to be necessitated by Bryant's ongoing knee woes.
Other WRs down: Vincent Jackson goes from eighth-rounder to 12th-rounder, and he's probably not done dropping. Derrick Mason also took a large hit, through no real fault of his own but because I realized I didn't like Flacco as much as I thought.
 

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Training Camp Low Down
We're not "easing" our way into training camp like some overpaid slob coming off a knee scope. We're jumping in feet first, sifting through an absolute barrage of information to bring you the most pertinent nuggets. And while we're at it, we're constantly updating the draft guide to reflect new developments.

The first week of training camp is in the books, with some teams already in full swing and others just getting it cranked up. Here's what you've missed so far:

NEWS OF THE WEEK #1: BUCKLING BRONCOS
Knowshon Moreno appeared primed for a breakout this season, generating plenty of offseason buzz through improved conditioning and on-field performance. But on Sunday, Moreno was carted off the field with what appears to be a severe hamstring injury.

It remains to be seen if the hammy is torn or just strained, but observers reportedly heard a pop when the second-year back went down. Not good. One report late Sunday said that Moreno has a slight tear and he'll be out 2-3 weeks. Another report says he has fraying in the hamstring and he'll be out three weeks. For now, we'll call three weeks a best-case scenario.

His status for preseason action is still in doubt and missing a month of training camp would surely send his draft-board ranks plummeting. Meanwhile, backup Correll Buckhalter was also injured on Sunday, but he only has an "upper-back pull." It's not a serious injury, and he'll get all the first-team work once he returns to action in a week or so. There's not much behind those two in Denver's backfield.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #2: WORLD WIDE WES IS INDEED SUPERHUMAN
When Wes Welker tore his ACL in Week 17 of last season, it was widely assumed that he'd start 2010 on the reserve/PUP list, thus ruling him out until Week 7. Then, we started to hear grumblings that Welker was ahead of schedule in his rehab. He shockingly made an appearance at OTAs in early June and on Sunday, Welker put the icing on the cake.

The slot machine was medically cleared, came off the active/PUP list and practiced with his teammates yesterday. He quelled a little bit of the hysteria by admitting that he isn't quite 100 percent and hasn't been cleared for contact yet. But at this point, all signs point toward Welker being in the starting lineup on Opening Day.

I remain skeptical about how effective Welker can be as he pushes the limits of most medical precedent here. He's a guy that must have his lateral quickness to be effective and we don't know yet if he's lost anything there. Welker is currently the No. 35 WR on our draft board, a number that will surely rise as he shows more and more in camp. But I still haven't yet seen enough to recommend targeting him in fantasy drafts.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #3: ROY WILLIAMS WINS BY DEFAULT
Dez Bryant was on a collision course with the starting lineup after a jaw-dropping first few days at Cowboys camp. But on Friday, he suffered a high ankle sprain and is questionable for Week 1. Roy Williams will now almost certainly be the starter on Opening Day, but figures to be his usual ineffective self. That could give savvy re-draft owners a chance to get the uber-talented rookie at an extreme discount and stash him for a few weeks.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #4: CATCHING PASSES ALL DAY
Coach Brad Childress confirmed that Adrian Peterson will play a bigger role on third downs this season. It's huge news for owners in PPR leagues, who shouldn't be considered insane for taking A-Pete over Chris Johnson with the top pick. Peterson had 19 catches as a rookie, 21 in 2009 and 43 a year ago. With Chester Taylor gone, he should get over the 50 reception mark pretty easily.

Editor's Note: For rankings, projections, tiers, cheatsheets and more, get the draft guide!

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
Mike Williams is getting a lot of first-team work as the Bucs' split end because "he's earned it," according to coach Raheem Morris. ... Dwayne Bowe is earning praise early in camp from coach Todd Haley after being buried with the third stringers at this time last year. ... Steve Slaton has been working with the second team so far at camp while Arian Foster is reportedly the coaches' favorite. ... Thomas Jones surprisingly opened camp as the Chiefs starter, but we're not reading much into that yet. Jamaal Charles remains the centerpiece of the offense. ... Chris Ogbonnaya looks like the leader to be the No. 2 back in St. Louis. ... Deion Branch opened camp as a starting wideout ahead of Golden Tate and Deon Butler. It's probably just a case of giving a veteran respect. Tate remains a nice flier. ... Brandon LaFell is reportedly making waves at Panthers' camp as he pushes yawner Dwayne Jarrett. ... Jarrett Dillard (foot) is out for a couple of weeks, giving Mike Thomas the inside track on the No. 2 receiver gig. ... Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi opened camp as the Browns starting wideouts. ... The Raiders say they are going to make a concerted effort to use Zach Miller more in the red zone this season. ... Brian Hartline opened camp as the starter opposite Brandon Marshall. ... Cedric Benson and Vince Young will not face league discipline for their roles in separate offseason barfights. ... Steve Johnson opened camp as a starter, ahead of James Hardy. ... Trent Edwards heads to camp as the strong favorite to win the starting gig, earning praise for his offseason work from coach Chan Gailey. ... Clinton Portis opened camp as the starting running back, as expected. ... Jimmy Clausen is behind Hunter Cantwell for the No. 2 QB job. ... Jason Campbell has been named the Raiders' starter already. ... Marion Barber is the Cowboys' starter "as of right now," according to the team's official site. ... Kenny Britt is still on the outside looking in as Justin Gage and Nate Washington remain the team's starters. ... Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney were the starters when the Broncos began camp.

RUNNING BACK INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Steven Jackson (back) was nearly a full participant as the Rams opened camp and appears very healthy. ... Montario Hardesty's battle with Jerome Harrison is on hold as the rookie is out for a couple of weeks with a knee twist. ... Kevin Smith (ACL surgery) has been medically cleared and is practicing once a day. ... Jonathan Stewart (heel) isn't practicing, as usual. The difference is that this time he's coming off surgery. ... Ahmad Bradshaw (ankles) didn't start camp on the active/PUP. ... Leon Washington (compound leg fracture) is participating in Seahawks' camp. ... James Starks was gaining steam in the Packers' backfield, but a lingering hamstring injury has him sidelined.

Editor's Note: Use myfantasyleague.com to set up your league!

RECEIVER INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Devery Henderson (sports hernia) is nearly 100 percent recovered and is back practicing. ... Donald Driver (dual knee surgeries) has been a full-go in practices. ... Steve Smith (broken arm) of the Panthers is already catching passes on the sidelines. ... Antonio Bryant (knee) isn't practicing as he falls further behind Terrell Owens on the depth chart. ... Brandon Pettigrew (knee) has been activated from the active/PUP, but is expected to work as an in-line blocking tight end more than a receiver this year. ... Zach Miller (foot) of the Jaguars is back on the practice field after a lost offseason. ... DeSean Jackson has a lower back strain, but is expected to be fine. ... The Vikings have shown very little concern about Sidney Rice's hip issue. ... Chaz Schilens troublesome foot is giving him problems yet again. ... Harry Douglas (ACL surgery) returned to practice Friday and fits nicely in the slot. ... Robert Meacham (toe) is expected to return to action sometime in the next couple weeks. ... The Saints revealed that Marques Colston underwent a knee scope in the offseason and is on the active/PUP list. ... Eric Decker (foot) is back practicing after missing the offseason program. ... Owen Daniels (ACL surgery) apparently had a setback in his recovery, although he's still hoping to be ready for Week 1. He's clearly no Wes Welker, and shouldn't be counted on as a TE1.

Editor's Note: Dominate your league by using the Draftmaster!

SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
My mother always said that I'm a giver. So here are three free sleepers (defined by an average draft position of 100+) that I'll be monitoring closely in camp:

1. Matthew Stafford: Last year's No. 1 overall pick is expected to make a dramatic leap as the Lions transition to a speedy, pass-first attack. He'll have weapons all over Ford Field's turf and is a great upside option in two-QB formats.

2. Early Doucet: Last year's playoff outburst (14 catches, 145 yards, two touchdowns in two games) wasn't a fluke. Doucet has a rock-solid NFL physique and is locked in as the Cardinals' slot receiver. He could even push Steve Breaston at the flanker spot.

3. Zach Miller (Raiders): As noted above, the Raiders know they have to look to Miller more in the red zone. Combine that with the arrival of Jason Campbell, who loves to check down to tight ends, and we have nice upside here. Waiting on a tight end can really pay off in this year's fantasy drafts.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Training Camp Low Down
We're not "easing" our way into training camp like some overpaid slob coming off a knee scope. We're jumping in feet first, sifting through an absolute barrage of information to bring you the most pertinent nuggets. And while we're at it, we're constantly updating the draft guide to reflect new developments.

The first week of training camp is in the books, with some teams already in full swing and others just getting it cranked up. Here's what you've missed so far:

NEWS OF THE WEEK #1: BUCKLING BRONCOS
Knowshon Moreno appeared primed for a breakout this season, generating plenty of offseason buzz through improved conditioning and on-field performance. But on Sunday, Moreno was carted off the field with what appears to be a severe hamstring injury.

It remains to be seen if the hammy is torn or just strained, but observers reportedly heard a pop when the second-year back went down. Not good. One report late Sunday said that Moreno has a slight tear and he'll be out 2-3 weeks. Another report says he has fraying in the hamstring and he'll be out three weeks. For now, we'll call three weeks a best-case scenario.

His status for preseason action is still in doubt and missing a month of training camp would surely send his draft-board ranks plummeting. Meanwhile, backup Correll Buckhalter was also injured on Sunday, but he only has an "upper-back pull." It's not a serious injury, and he'll get all the first-team work once he returns to action in a week or so. There's not much behind those two in Denver's backfield.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #2: WORLD WIDE WES IS INDEED SUPERHUMAN
When Wes Welker tore his ACL in Week 17 of last season, it was widely assumed that he'd start 2010 on the reserve/PUP list, thus ruling him out until Week 7. Then, we started to hear grumblings that Welker was ahead of schedule in his rehab. He shockingly made an appearance at OTAs in early June and on Sunday, Welker put the icing on the cake.

The slot machine was medically cleared, came off the active/PUP list and practiced with his teammates yesterday. He quelled a little bit of the hysteria by admitting that he isn't quite 100 percent and hasn't been cleared for contact yet. But at this point, all signs point toward Welker being in the starting lineup on Opening Day.

I remain skeptical about how effective Welker can be as he pushes the limits of most medical precedent here. He's a guy that must have his lateral quickness to be effective and we don't know yet if he's lost anything there. Welker is currently the No. 35 WR on our draft board, a number that will surely rise as he shows more and more in camp. But I still haven't yet seen enough to recommend targeting him in fantasy drafts.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #3: ROY WILLIAMS WINS BY DEFAULT
Dez Bryant was on a collision course with the starting lineup after a jaw-dropping first few days at Cowboys camp. But on Friday, he suffered a high ankle sprain and is questionable for Week 1. Roy Williams will now almost certainly be the starter on Opening Day, but figures to be his usual ineffective self. That could give savvy re-draft owners a chance to get the uber-talented rookie at an extreme discount and stash him for a few weeks.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #4: CATCHING PASSES ALL DAY
Coach Brad Childress confirmed that Adrian Peterson will play a bigger role on third downs this season. It's huge news for owners in PPR leagues, who shouldn't be considered insane for taking A-Pete over Chris Johnson with the top pick. Peterson had 19 catches as a rookie, 21 in 2009 and 43 a year ago. With Chester Taylor gone, he should get over the 50 reception mark pretty easily.

Editor's Note: For rankings, projections, tiers, cheatsheets and more, get the draft guide!

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
Mike Williams is getting a lot of first-team work as the Bucs' split end because "he's earned it," according to coach Raheem Morris. ... Dwayne Bowe is earning praise early in camp from coach Todd Haley after being buried with the third stringers at this time last year. ... Steve Slaton has been working with the second team so far at camp while Arian Foster is reportedly the coaches' favorite. ... Thomas Jones surprisingly opened camp as the Chiefs starter, but we're not reading much into that yet. Jamaal Charles remains the centerpiece of the offense. ... Chris Ogbonnaya looks like the leader to be the No. 2 back in St. Louis. ... Deion Branch opened camp as a starting wideout ahead of Golden Tate and Deon Butler. It's probably just a case of giving a veteran respect. Tate remains a nice flier. ... Brandon LaFell is reportedly making waves at Panthers' camp as he pushes yawner Dwayne Jarrett. ... Jarrett Dillard (foot) is out for a couple of weeks, giving Mike Thomas the inside track on the No. 2 receiver gig. ... Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi opened camp as the Browns starting wideouts. ... The Raiders say they are going to make a concerted effort to use Zach Miller more in the red zone this season. ... Brian Hartline opened camp as the starter opposite Brandon Marshall. ... Cedric Benson and Vince Young will not face league discipline for their roles in separate offseason barfights. ... Steve Johnson opened camp as a starter, ahead of James Hardy. ... Trent Edwards heads to camp as the strong favorite to win the starting gig, earning praise for his offseason work from coach Chan Gailey. ... Clinton Portis opened camp as the starting running back, as expected. ... Jimmy Clausen is behind Hunter Cantwell for the No. 2 QB job. ... Jason Campbell has been named the Raiders' starter already. ... Marion Barber is the Cowboys' starter "as of right now," according to the team's official site. ... Kenny Britt is still on the outside looking in as Justin Gage and Nate Washington remain the team's starters. ... Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney were the starters when the Broncos began camp.

RUNNING BACK INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Steven Jackson (back) was nearly a full participant as the Rams opened camp and appears very healthy. ... Montario Hardesty's battle with Jerome Harrison is on hold as the rookie is out for a couple of weeks with a knee twist. ... Kevin Smith (ACL surgery) has been medically cleared and is practicing once a day. ... Jonathan Stewart (heel) isn't practicing, as usual. The difference is that this time he's coming off surgery. ... Ahmad Bradshaw (ankles) didn't start camp on the active/PUP. ... Leon Washington (compound leg fracture) is participating in Seahawks' camp. ... James Starks was gaining steam in the Packers' backfield, but a lingering hamstring injury has him sidelined.

Editor's Note: Use myfantasyleague.com to set up your league!

RECEIVER INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Devery Henderson (sports hernia) is nearly 100 percent recovered and is back practicing. ... Donald Driver (dual knee surgeries) has been a full-go in practices. ... Steve Smith (broken arm) of the Panthers is already catching passes on the sidelines. ... Antonio Bryant (knee) isn't practicing as he falls further behind Terrell Owens on the depth chart. ... Brandon Pettigrew (knee) has been activated from the active/PUP, but is expected to work as an in-line blocking tight end more than a receiver this year. ... Zach Miller (foot) of the Jaguars is back on the practice field after a lost offseason. ... DeSean Jackson has a lower back strain, but is expected to be fine. ... The Vikings have shown very little concern about Sidney Rice's hip issue. ... Chaz Schilens troublesome foot is giving him problems yet again. ... Harry Douglas (ACL surgery) returned to practice Friday and fits nicely in the slot. ... Robert Meacham (toe) is expected to return to action sometime in the next couple weeks. ... The Saints revealed that Marques Colston underwent a knee scope in the offseason and is on the active/PUP list. ... Eric Decker (foot) is back practicing after missing the offseason program. ... Owen Daniels (ACL surgery) apparently had a setback in his recovery, although he's still hoping to be ready for Week 1. He's clearly no Wes Welker, and shouldn't be counted on as a TE1.

Editor's Note: Dominate your league by using the Draftmaster!

SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
My mother always said that I'm a giver. So here are three free sleepers (defined by an average draft position of 100+) that I'll be monitoring closely in camp:

1. Matthew Stafford: Last year's No. 1 overall pick is expected to make a dramatic leap as the Lions transition to a speedy, pass-first attack. He'll have weapons all over Ford Field's turf and is a great upside option in two-QB formats.

2. Early Doucet: Last year's playoff outburst (14 catches, 145 yards, two touchdowns in two games) wasn't a fluke. Doucet has a rock-solid NFL physique and is locked in as the Cardinals' slot receiver. He could even push Steve Breaston at the flanker spot.

3. Zach Miller (Raiders): As noted above, the Raiders know they have to look to Miller more in the red zone. Combine that with the arrival of Jason Campbell, who loves to check down to tight ends, and we have nice upside here. Waiting on a tight end can really pay off in this year's fantasy drafts.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Steven Jackson and sleeper running backs
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Today's winners in Stats & Analytics:

Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, Steven Jackson


Today's losers:

Thomas Jones, Felix Jones, DeAngelo Williams



Over the past couple of weeks, we have been looking at how to apply advanced metrics to build a winning fantasy football team. Today's episode: finding value among running backs.


Under most fantasy systems, not only do the best running backs score a boatload of points, but there's a big gap between the top handful of RBs and everyone else. (All of the top five players drafted in ESPN leagues, and seven of the top 10, are RBs.) This means when it comes to drafting, particularly if you don't get one of the super-duperstars, you need to work both sides of the value equation. You have to project player performance accurately (the benefit side). You also have to exploit misperceptions and irrationality among your competition to make the most of your picks (the cost side). On both counts, I've unearthed a stat you want.

<OFFER>

Before I get to the big reveal, a little windup: I've argued that, for receivers, yards per team attempt combines everything you need to know in one statistic: a wideout's reliability, the accuracy of his QB, his deep-threat potential and his dominance on his own team. If you expect me to concoct something similar for RBs, well, you're exactly right.
Rushing attempts, obviously, is the most basic indicator of an RB's reliability, while yards per carry gauges performance. Chris Johnson led the NFL with 358 rushes last year and finished third in the league with an impressive 5.6 ypc, which is how you run for 2,000 yards. But to really differentiate backs who pile up impressive runs, it's more useful to look at yards after contact (YACo), which is simply the yardage a RB gains after getting hit. A player can rack up a lot of yards after contact by slipping out of tackles or by bulling through them, but either way, getting downfield increases a RB's chance to score long touchdowns.
Just as we did with receivers, we also want to look at how important a running back is to his own team. There's probably nothing more frustrating in fantasy than spending a high draft pick on a RB only to see him fall into a platoon. Franchise backs are getting harder to find: In 2009, just seven RBs carried the ball on more than 60 percent of their teams' rushing attempts.
So let's combine these variables into one stat. If we multiply Rushing Attempts Per Team Attempts by Yards Per Rushing Attempt by Percentage of Yards Gained After Contact, we simply get Yards After Contact Per Team Rushing Attempt. We can call that YACo/TA, which rhymes with "Dakota," not to mention PECOTA.
YACo/TA measures both how far and how regularly a guy gets downfield. It correlates with touchdown totals almost as well as raw rushing attempts or yardage does, but also with long runs. And lo and behold, the 2009 NFL leader was not Chris Johnson:
<!-- begin inline 1 --><TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Att.</TH><TH>Yards</TH><TH>YACo</TH><TH>Team Att</TH><TH>YACo/TA</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Steven Jackson, St. Louis</TD><TD>324</TD><TD>1422</TD><TD>954</TD><TD>411</TD><TD>2.32</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chris Johnson, Tennessee</TD><TD>358</TD><TD>2037</TD><TD>1071</TD><TD>499</TD><TD>2.15</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville</TD><TD>312</TD><TD>1391</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>447</TD><TD>2.08</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Adrian Peterson, Minnesota</TD><TD>315</TD><TD>1394</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>467</TD><TD>1.96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ryan Grant, Green Bay</TD><TD>282</TD><TD>1253</TD><TD>774</TD><TD>438</TD><TD>1.77</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh</TD><TD>242</TD><TD>1108</TD><TD>717</TD><TD>428</TD><TD>1.68</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Fred Jackson, Buffalo</TD><TD>238</TD><TD>1067</TD><TD>708</TD><TD>424</TD><TD>1.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Frank Gore, San Francisco</TD><TD>229</TD><TD>1120</TD><TD>616</TD><TD>371</TD><TD>1.66</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jamaal Charles, Kansas City</TD><TD>190</TD><TD>1120</TD><TD>687</TD><TD>438</TD><TD>1.57</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ray Rice, Baltimore</TD><TD>254</TD><TD>1338</TD><TD>719</TD><TD>468</TD><TD>1.54</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cedric Benson, Cincinnati</TD><TD>301</TD><TD>1254</TD><TD>774</TD><TD>505</TD><TD>1.53</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Beanie Wells, Arizona</TD><TD>176</TD><TD>821</TD><TD>544</TD><TD>365</TD><TD>1.49</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Matt Forte, Chicago</TD><TD>258</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>544</TD><TD>373</TD><TD>1.46</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jonathan Stewart, Carolina</TD><TD>221</TD><TD>1133</TD><TD>740</TD><TD>525</TD><TD>1.41</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Knowshon Moreno, Denver</TD><TD>247</TD><TD>947</TD><TD>603</TD><TD>440</TD><TD>1.37</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Marion Barber, Dallas</TD><TD>214</TD><TD>932</TD><TD>596</TD><TD>436</TD><TD>1.37</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Joseph Addai, Indianapolis</TD><TD>219</TD><TD>828</TD><TD>491</TD><TD>366</TD><TD>1.34</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Michael Turner, Atlanta</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>875</TD><TD>594</TD><TD>451</TD><TD>1.32</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants</TD><TD>224</TD><TD>832</TD><TD>577</TD><TD>443</TD><TD>1.30</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ricky Williams, Miami</TD><TD>241</TD><TD>1121</TD><TD>647</TD><TD>509</TD><TD>1.27</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 1 -->(Source for yards after contact: ProFootballFocus.com; Hat Tip: Christopher Harris)
Now, I am not going to argue that you should pick Steven Jackson ahead of Johnson. But you should note that Jackson carried the ball on 78.8 percent of the Rams' rushing attempts, by far the highest proportion in the league, and there's still nobody else in the Rams' backfield. Despite his injury woes, Jackson racked up nearly 1,000 yards after contact. He will far surpass last year's total of four TDs if he gets even just a little more help from his QB and O-line. That means he's in line to deliver value similar to the very top RBs.
One tier down, many of same factors apply to Ryan Grant, who accounted for 64.4 percent of the rushes on a good Packers offense. Indeed, as Matthew Berry pointed out in a great Talented Mr. Roto column, of the five teams with 20 or more rushing TDs last season, all but one had two players with at least 100 carries. The exception: Green Bay, which basically just gives the rock to Grant. Yet Grant is going 10th among RBs (20th overall), on average, in ESPN fantasy drafts.
Fred Jackson is getting zero love from fantasy owners (35th among RBs, 91.8 overall) because the Bills drafted C.J. Spiller. But the closer you look, the more impressive Jackson's 2009 gets: He averaged 3.0 yards after contact per rushing attempt, right up there with Johnson and Jackson. Plus new coach Chan Gailey has a consistent history of loading carries onto one RB.
Jamaal Charles' YACo/TA is crazy good given that he only started for about half a season. At the moment, Charles' draft value (16th among RBs, 34.3 overall) is being kept down by Thomas Jones, but it's hard to imagine anything containing a back who explodes for a league-leading 3.6 yards after contact per carry, as Charles did last season.
As for perhaps the most reviled RB in fantasy football by the end of last year, Matt Forte? (Hey, I had him on my team, so I know what a bust he was.) Well, Forte's stock has fallen so far (21st among RBs, 43.7 overall) that he is now worth a buy-low look. Besides, he carried the ball on nearly 70 percent of the Bears' rushes last year, and his touches are actually likely to go up now that Mike Martz is his offensive coordinator. Also, Forte was hurt last season; now he's healthy.
On the other side of the coin, fantasy drafters are choosing DeAngelo Williams well ahead of Jonathan Stewart, Ronnie Brown over Ricky Williams and Felix Jones before Marion Barber. I generally don't like to dispute the wisdom of crowds, but the numbers (so far, anyway) don't support those preferences.
POSTSCRIPT: I needed to convince myself further that Matt Forte could actually be worth a recommendation, whatever my favorite stat says. So I checked out which players had the most rushes from inside their opponents' 5-yard line last year. Impressively, Forte had 19, tied for fifth in the league with Brandon Jacobs. (So go ahead and pick him; just be sure to cc: Mike Martz when you send me complaints later this season.) Other YACo/TA leaders who were also 5-yard leaders: Adrian Peterson (30), Maurice Jones-Drew (20), Jonathan Stewart (16), Marion Barber (16) and Joseph Addai (15). Getting the ball near the goal line is a tasty turbo-charge to yards after contact.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Change is in the air

The opening of training camps represents a time of change in the NFL. Injured players are returning to the field, young players are screaming up the depth charts, rookies are practicing in pads for the first time.

Let's face it, though: for the vast majority of fantasy relevant players, whatever happens over the next six weeks won't matter in the least. It's important not to go overboard, changing projections based on practices in shorts, meaningless preseason stats, or end-of-the-roster additions.

So which players do need to have their expectations adjusted? Let's try to divide them into three categories: 1. Material changes, 2. Speculative changes, 3. Educated guesses on injuries.

Material changes involve transactions (i.e. Terrell Owens signing with the Bengals) and depth chart status (i.e. Arian Foster opens camp as Texans' starter). These are the situations that necessitate an almost immediate adjustment of our 2010 Rotoworld Draft Guide projections.

Speculative changes involve beat writer hype (i.e. Devin Hester is in for a big season because he spent the offseason working out with Isaac Bruce), coach speak (i.e. Michael Turner will be more involved in the passing game), practice trends (i.e. Johnny Knox is Jay Cutler's favorite target), and cause-and-effect predictions (i.e. Ravens banged up secondary will cause Joe Flacco to pass more on offense). We begin drifting toward or away from these players when perusing our cheatsheets, but the information isn't strong enough to adjust projections.

Educated guessing on injuries is self explanatory (i.e. Owen Daniels suffered a setback, but he's still aiming for Week 1). With injuries, we do the best we can with the information we have available. Some injury updates, such as those to Wes Welker and Sidney Rice, lead to adjustments, while others lead to a wait-and-see approach.

Let's take a position-by-position look at the players with changing values or perceptions early in training camp. I've used the Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP where available. For some later-round players, I've used Mock Draft Central's ADP numbers (indicted with an asterisk).

<EMEditor's Note: Use myfantasyleague.com to set up your league! </EM>

[SIZE=+2]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]

Brett Favre, Vikings, ADP: QB11*, Round 7.09 - It's clear that Favre still wants to play, but his ankle is making his return a guessing game. We've dropped him four spots in our projections. For more on the impact of Favre's latest waffling, check out Evan Silva's all-encompassing "If Favre Retires" primer from Tuesday.

[SIZE=+1]Speculation[/SIZE]

Philip Rivers, Chargers, ADP: QB7, Round 4.11
Joe Flacco, Ravens, ADP: QB10, Round 7.10

We've speculated that Rivers' numbers could slip with No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson and Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeill set to miss time early in the season. We already had Rivers eighth at quarterback, however, and the speculation isn't enough to drop him further. ... Flacco was already due to see an increase in pass attempts as Cam Cameron continues to open up the offense. He should be forced to pass even more now that the Ravens have no healthy and capable cornerbacks on defense. In the end, it's still too speculative to adjust projections.

[SIZE=+1]Fun with Depth Charts![/SIZE]

Matt Moore, Panthers, ADP: QB25*
Trent Edwards, Bils, ADP: QB30*

Both quarterbacks were seen as the favorites to open the season as the starter. Now that they've opened camp as the clear number ones, it would seem that their in-season leashes are quite a bit longer. Neither one is getting drafted in typical 12-team leagues, though Moore is at least a borderline low-end QB2.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+2]Running Backs[/SIZE]

Cedric Benson, Bengals, ADP: RB14, Round 3.06 - The league office confirmed that Benson will not open the season with a suspension. We've increased his projection slightly, but we still have him in that tightly bunched group of RB2s with Ryan Grant, Beanie Wells, Jahvid Best, and Knowshon Moreno.

[SIZE=+1]Check-ups[/SIZE]

Steven Jackson, Rams, ADP: RB7, Round 1.09 - Jackson and the Rams have insisted all along that his back surgery was a positive, and we've seen nothing to suggest otherwise. He's taking hits in live tackling drills, and everything is copacetic so far. We had him projected as a Top-8 back, and he'll remain there.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, ADP: RB23, Round 5.02 - Like S-Jax, Brown was deemed "100 percent healthy and ready to go" entering training camp. Our concern with Brown was based just as much on the presence of Ricky Williams, so he remains a low-end RB2.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos, ADP: RB18, Round 4.02
Montario Hardesty, Browns, ADP: RB40, Round 9.06

Moreno (hamstring) and Hardesty (knee tweak) are both being given a recovery timetable of roughly three weeks, which would give them plenty of time to return for the important third preseason game. By all accounts, the injuries should be fully behind them in time for the season opener. We're not adjusting expectations for either back.

[SIZE=+1]Fun with Depth Charts![/SIZE]

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, ADP: RB12, Round 2.12
Felix Jones, Cowboys, ADP: RB24, Round 5.06
Arian Foster, Texans, ADP: RB44, Round 10.05
Carnell Williams, Buccaneers, ADP: RB34, Round 7.12

Coach Todd Haley is up to old tricks again, messing with the depth chart to motivate a talented young player. Charles is easily the Chiefs best player, so we're not giving much weight to the early-camp shenanigans. ... Cowboys beat writers spent the offseason hyping Jones at the expense of Marion Barber, only to change gears once MBIII showed up to camp in phenomenal shape. The coaches aren't disclosing roles, though we can expect a fairly even split between the two. ... Foster entered camp atop the depth chart, and he's only solidified that spot in early practices. We've knocked Ben Tate's projections significantly while giving a boost to Foster's. The latter is a steal at the above ADP. ... Cadillac will open the season as the starter, but the Bucs will go with the "hot hand" approach this season. We already had the Tampa backfield projected as if that was the case.

[SIZE=+1]In the News[/SIZE]

Adrian Peterson, Vikings, ADP: RB2, Round 1.02
Michael Turner, Falcons, ADP: RB6, Round 1.07
Beanie Wells, Cardinals, ADP: RB17, Round 3.12

Should Favre's ankle ultimately keep him from returning, Peterson's value wouldn't change drastically. He could be expected to see a marked increase in touches, but that would be offset by a significant decrease in touchdown opportunities. ... Turner and Wells are both being talked up as bigger factors in the passing game, but that falls under the category of "believe it when you see it." Both teams have superior pass-catching options out of the backfield in Jerious Norwood, Jason Snelling, and Tim Hightower.

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[SIZE=+2]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]

Terrell Owens, Bengals, ADP: WR32, Round 7.08
Antonio Bryant, Bengals, ADP: WR49, Round 11.05

We've already adjusted their rankings in the Draft Guide. Our expectations for the Bengals receivers are contained in last week's blog post. In short, Bryant is free-falling due to T.O.'s arrival as well as his knee injury. We're not wild about Owens at his current ADP, so we're steering clear of both receivers.

[SIZE=+1]Check-ups[/SIZE]

Sidney Rice, Vikings, ADP: WR13, Round 3.07 - We've already dropped Rice several spots in the Draft Guide due to his lingering hip injury and the uncertainty surrounding Favre. Of all the Vikes receivers, he has the most to lose with Tarvaris Jackson under center.

Wes Welker, Patriots, ADP: WR16, Round 4.05 - It looks like Welker will escape the regular-season PUP list after all. We're not expecting to see the pre-injury version of Welker in Week 1, but it's reasonable to optimistically adjust projections based on his impressive recovery.

Donald Driver, Packers, ADP: WR26, Round 6.09 - So far so good in camp after having both knees scoped early in the offseason. Our projections factored in the surgeries and Driver's age, so no adjustments are necessary.

Chaz Schilens, Raiders, ADP: WR66, Round 13.11 - Schilens has been limited in camp with continued soreness in his twice repaired foot. We're not adjusting projections yet, but I'm no longer targeting him as a late-round flier.

Anthony Gonzalez, Colts, ADP: WR46, Round 10.10 - By all accounts, A-Gonz has looked just fine early in camp. His uncertainty also involves offensive role, however, and it's too early to assume he'll leapfrog Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. I'm letting someone else draft him.

Steve Smith, Panthers, ADP: WR15, Round 4.04 - Smith is already catching passes with his broken arm, and he's expected to be back in time for the final preseason game. We haven't touched his projections at all, and I'm targeting one of the NFL's most dominant receivers in every draft.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys, ADP: WR27, Round 6.12 - High ankle sprains can linger, but the Cowboys are optimistic that Bryant will return for the final preseason game. We're not adjusting his projections; we may not have had him ranked high enough in the first place. I'm still targeting Bryant as a WR3 in all leagues.

Marques Colston, Saints, ADP: WR11, Round 3.04
Robert Meachem, Saints, ADP: WR35, Round 8.06

Colston has already returned to full practice after undergoing an offseason scope on his right knee. Meachem, who underwent toe surgery, is expected to be "full go" next week. Though we're keeping tabs on the status of both Saints receivers, we've seen nothing to necessitate a downgrade thus far.

DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Derrick Mason - All four receivers suffered early-camp injuries, though none are considered serious enough to last more than a week or two. Barring the unexpected, they will all be back to full health and in the lineup for the season opener.

[SIZE=+1]Hype Check[/SIZE]

Johnny Knox, Bears, ADP: WR40, Round 9.08
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, ADP: WR19, Round 5.03

Adam Levitan covered D-Bo's hype in a Pancake Blocks blog post Tuesday afternoon. We're encouraged by his new-found commitment, but not enough to adjust his projection. ... Knox has been Jay Cutler's favorite target in nearly every training camp practice. We were already sky-high on Knox as a breakout candidate, so expectations remain the same. Just know that his ADP has been steadily rising to the point where he's no longer a "sleeper."

[SIZE=+1]Fun with Depth Charts![/SIZE]

Mike Williams, Buccaneers, ADP: WR69, Round 14.02 - Depth chart
Kenny Britt, Titans, ADP: WR45, Round 10.06 - Depth chart
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos, ADP: WR43, Round 10.02 - Depth chart
Devin Thomas, Redskins, ADP: WR58, Round 12.12 - Depth chart

Williams is already the Bucs' most talented receiver, and even coach Raheem Morris conceded that the rookie has earned starter reps. If you're going to target a Tampa receiver, make it Williams -- not Arrelious Benn. ... Britt entered camp in better shape even if he's still running with the Titans' second team. That ADP is too low regardless. Britt should be the No. 1 receiver on the team by October. ... Demaryius Thomas missed the offseason program, signed late, is predictably struggling with his route running, and is stuck on the third team. Target Jabar Gaffney as a late-round flier instead of drafting Thomas in the tenth. ... After getting off on the wrong foot with the new coaching staff, Thomas is stuck behind 38-year-old Joey Galloway and roster fodder Roydell Williams. He's no longer a player to target as a breakout candidate.

[SIZE=+1]Fun with Depth Charts 2![/SIZE]

Brian Hartline, Dolphins, ADP: N/A - Depth chart
Steve Johnson, Bills, ADP: N/A - Depth chart
Brandon LaFell, Panthers, ADP: N/A- Depth chart

Hartline and Johnson are staking claim to two of the least exciting second receiver jobs in the NFL. Even if they keep the starting jobs, they're both reaches in the late rounds. ... LaFell is making a serious run at Dwayne Jarrett's No. 2 spot on the depth chart, but he's only draftable in Dynasty leagues.

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[SIZE=+2]Tight Ends[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Check-ups[/SIZE]

Owen Daniels, Texans, ADP: TE8, Round 7.04 - Coach Gary Kubiak confirmed that Daniels has had a setback in his recovery from a third ACL injury, putting his Week 1 status in question. Rotoworld has dropped Daniels from eighth to tenth in the Draft Guide rankings. He's a tight end I would avoid until his condition takes a turn for the better.

Antonio Gates, Chargers, ADP: TE2, Round 4.10 - Gates missed time with minor plantar fasciitis in his right foot during offseason workouts, but he's been practicing in training camp. Due in large part to consistently high touchdown totals, he remains Rotoworld's pick for the top fantasy tight end.

Jermichael Finley, Packers, ADP: TE4, Round 5.08 - After being limited in OTAs with minor knee tendinitis, Finley participated in Larry Fitzgerald's grueling summer camp in July. The injury is no longer a factor, and the breakout star remains a top tier tight end.

Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers, ADP: TE10, Round 10.01 - The Bucs are giving Winslow plenty of rest in training camp after undergoing a sixth surgery on his knee. He's expected to be ready for Week 1, though I would target a player like Zach Miller in Round 10 instead.

[SIZE=+1]In the News[/SIZE]

Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings, ADP: TE9, Round 9.01 - Schiancoe's value is heavily dependent on getting in the end zone, and his touchdown production is, in turn, heavily dependent on Brett Favre. His current ADP is way too high regardless of quarterback.

[SIZE=+2]Kickers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Job Security[/SIZE]

David Buehler, Cowboys, ADP: K20*
Nick Folk, Jets, ADP: K28*
Mason Crosby, Packers, ADP: K2

The Cowboys and Jets organizations will publicly back their kickers until they start blowing field goals in preseason action. I still expect Matt Stover to show up in Dallas by October. ... The Packers opted against competition for Crosby, but he's off to a shaky (6-of-11) start in camp. If you draft him as a Top-5 kicker, just know that his job security is tenuous. You may have to abandon ship.

[SIZE=+1]Camp Battles[/SIZE]

Shayne Graham, Ravens, ADP: K16
Neil Rackers, Texans, ADP: K11
Mike Nugent, Bengals, ADP: N/A

No matter what the Ravens say, Billy Cundiff has no chance to win the job unless Graham gets kidnapped. ... Rackers and Brown are said to be "neck and neck," but there's a reason why Rackers was brought in. ... Nugent is listed ahead of Dave Rayner on the Bengals' first depth chart.

[SIZE=+1]In the News[/SIZE]

Adam Vinatieri, Colts, ADP: K9
Jason Hanson, Lions, ADP: K31*

Vinatieri is without camp competition after Brett Swenson was released. Losing effectiveness the past few seasons, Vinatieri isn't a great fantasy option in no small part due to Peyton Manning's deadly effectiveness in the red zone. ... Hanson will undergo a scope on his non-kicking knee, but he's due back by Week 1 in a much-improved offense.
 

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The Upside Index: QBs, RBs
Fantasy footballers crave upside. We reach like heck for it on draft day. We make in-season trades based strictly on upside. After a hot start, we look forward ten weeks to acquire players we're sure have "easy fantasy playoff schedules," or the most late-season upside. The entire construction of our team is based on upside.

The Upside Index rankings are not rooted in reasonably-projected statistics. First and foremost, they are based on talent. To rank high, a player must not only be supremely talented, he must be surrounded by elite talent. Also factored in are dynamics like opportunity (e.g. the likelihood of a high or low pass attempts total for quarterbacks) and situation (a running back's competition for carries). The rankings are influenced by coaching staff tendencies, age, and injury situations.

So let's be clear: These are not Rotoworld's 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings. Those can be found here. The Upside Index gauges a player's statistical ceiling.

This week, we talk quarterbacks and running backs. Next week, receivers and tight ends.

[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]

1. Drew Brees - Combine Brees' league-best accuracy with Sean Payton's pass-crazed aggressiveness and you have a lethal fantasy QB. A top-two fantasy passer in three of the past four years, Brees will benefit from the continued development of future No. 1 receiver Robert Meachem, return of slot machine Lance Moore, and star-in-the-making tight end Jimmy Graham.

2. Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers doesn't throw as often as Brees (33.6 attempts per game to Brees' 37.0 since '08) and doesn't complete as high a percentage of passes. He also doesn't average as many yards per throw. But Rodgers very nearly makes up for it with prolific rushing stats for a quarterback. The emergence of stud tight end Jermichael Finley definitely won't hurt.

3. Tony Romo - Romo's top wideout (Miles Austin) enters his first full season as a starter, his All-Pro tight end (Jason Witten) returns from a year he started uncharacteristically slow, and No. 1 receiver of the future (Dez Bryant) was added in the draft. Possessing the quickest release in football, Romo is primed to again push for the No. 2 overall QB ranking he garnered in 2007.

4. Peyton Manning - Manning has finished worse than the No. 4 fantasy QB just twice since his 1998 rookie year. He doesn't make the top three here because the Colts will likely pass less (odds are they won't rank dead last in rushing again) and Manning's top two pass catchers are 31 or older. They also lack true difference makers behind Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

5. Jay Cutler - Cutler's 26-interception 2009 season really stands out as fluky. He was hardly pick-prone even at Vanderbilt, never throwing more than 13 in a season as a four-year starter. With Mike Martz in Chicago, Cutler is a threat to repeat his 616 attempts from 2008, when he finished as the No. 5 fantasy quarterback. He's going to make a star out of Johnny Knox.

6. Tom Brady - Fewer spread sets are anticipated in New England this year, Randy Moss is 33, and Wes Welker is returning from offseason reconstructions of his knee and shoulder. But let's not forget that Brady faced perhaps the toughest passing schedule in the league last season while coming off a torn ACL that affected his timing. He still ranked eighth among quarterbacks.

7. Matt Schaub - Like the Colts', the Texans' running game is bound to be better, limiting the upside of their quarterback. Indy and Houston ranked 1-2 in the AFC in pass attempts last season, and 30th and 32nd in NFL rushing. These things tend to balance out, especially with talent added to the ground attack. Owen Daniels' health is also a concern. Schaub stays in the top seven because he's got the best receiver in football (Andre Johnson) on his side.

8. Kevin Kolb - Has a first-year starter ever been better set up for success? Kolb lacks dominant talent, but the Eagles will continue to throw like crazy. They haven't ranked outside the top ten in pass attempts since '03, lack between-the-tackles runners, and own a loaded pass-catching corps. Kolb is a boom-or-bust pick, but his "boom" has the potential to be thunderous.

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9. Matt Ryan - Ryan was limited by Atlanta's run-first ways in his first two seasons, but there are indications that will change. The team is serious about keeping Michael Turner under 300 carries, and has expanded its no-huddle and vertical-pass packages. The healthy returns of LT Sam Baker and RG Harvey Dahl also help after they combined for seven missed starts in '09.

10. Philip Rivers - The lone QB here whose Upside Index ranking is significantly lower than his fantasy projection. Rivers has a lot of things working against him. In addition to being without his starting left tackle and top receiver indefinitely, Rivers' pass attempts are certain to be down with Ryan Mathews upgrading the ground attack. Upside drafters should look elsewhere.

Deep League Upside Pick: Michael Vick - The same supporting cast set to make Kolb great could do the same for Vick. He's lost some speed and will never be an accurate passer, but let's not forget this was a top-three fantasy QB the last time he started a full season (2006). Vick will be a red-hot waiver pickup if Kolb goes down, and is draft-able in deep leagues as we speak.

[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]

1. Chris Johnson - Gun to the head, I'll say Chris Johnson is the most talented back in football. He's faster than Adrian Peterson, nearly as physical, and a smoother receiver out of the backfield. I can't believe I'm saying this of Vince Young, but Johnson also has a more stable quarterback situation. His run blocking is definitely superior, giving CJ2K the nod by a hair.

2. Adrian Peterson - I'm taking Peterson before Johnson if Brett Favre returns, but for now A.P. comes in a close second. Having Favre in Minnesota is key because it increases Peterson's touchdown potential. Still, Favre's retirement wouldn't be a death blow to Peterson, as I feel I explained pretty well here. A.P.'s offensive line is a bigger worry.

3. Frank Gore - Gore has an upgraded line and no competition for touches, as his 2.7 yards per carry-averaging backup (Glen Coffee) is decisively holding off Anthony Dixon. Despite missing two-and-a-half games last season, Gore finished as the No. 5 fantasy back and fourth in points per game. The offense will also be better with a full year of future star Michael Crabtree.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew - I have numerous concerns with MJD this season, but can't take anything away from his ability, situation, or upside. He is perhaps the NFL's most complete back: a terrific receiver, hoss at the goal line, and devastating in the open field. Health permitting, he is a lock for 360-plus touches.

5. Ray Rice - Rice finished as the No. 4 fantasy back in his first season as a starter, but cabooses The Big Five because Baltimore features Willis McGahee at the goal line. Losing scoring chances doesn't make Rice unworthy of a top-five pick, but definitely limits him. Those considering Rice at No. 1 or 2 overall should think twice. Great player. Not top-pick upside.

6. Michael Turner - It's not Atlanta's pledge to keep Turner under 300 carries that keeps him out of the top five, and it isn't his 2009 injury. It's his lack of receiving ability. The Falcons claim they want to increase Turner's passing-game usage, but history says that's typical training camp fluff. Still, there's not a stronger candidate than Turner to lead the league in touchdowns.

7. Pierre Thomas - Mike Bell's departure left a massive 172-carry, five-touchdown hole in the Saints' backfield. (We're speaking in fantasy terms here; Bell's real-life loss will hardly be felt.) By far, Thomas is the best bet in New Orleans to inherit most of that work, as he's the team's most skilled inside runner and terrific in short yardage. We have a very hard time believing in Lynell Hamilton, and Reggie Bush is clearly most effective when held to 8-10 touches a game.

8. Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall would rank higher if he showed more confidence in himself. One series, he'll dance too much. On the next, he'll dominate a front seven. Mendenhall obviously does not lack star talent and is set up to flirt with 400 touches, which provides for rare upside. He needs to secure goal-line duties, and then hit the hole with authority on every carry.

9. Shonn Greene - Greene will be in the driver's seat for virtually all early-down work by Week 3 or 4 (LaDainian Tomlinson is NOT a legitimate threat), and shouldn't struggle to approach 300 carries on a team that had a league-leading 607 combined last season. Greene is another back who gets dinged for poor receiving skills, but offers enormous upside in a non-PPR league.

10. Steven Jackson - Elite talent and elite workload potential. Jackson's backup is Chris Ogbonnaya, who couldn't even start in college. An offense that ranked 29th last year is limiting Jackson, and offseason back surgery doesn't help. S-Jax remains a lock-it-up first-round fantasy pick no matter the format, but asking for a leap from the players around him is asking a lot.

11. Jamaal Charles - Charles is running with the "threes" in camp as Todd Haley does his best Mangini impression. Haley, of course, pulled the same stunt with Dwayne Bowe last year. Bowe was in the starting lineup for Week 1. Charles' upside is dinged by Thomas Jones, but it's also worth noting that Jones has been mistake prone in early practices and missed time with an undisclosed injury. Quietly, Charles may be one of the top-five tailback talents in the game.

12. Chris Wells - That darned Tim Hightower. Wells continues to work with the backup offense in all phases, including goal-line drills. Though Beanie's receiving skills are underrated, he'll also come off the field on third downs. But note that every last one of Wells' seven 2009 touchdowns came on red-zone runs, and a trio were from three or fewer yards out. The Cards will not hesitate to use Wells at the goal line on drives where's he's earned a scoring chance.

13. Jonathan Stewart - Apparently, not many people have seen Stewart play. I noticed him ranked twentieth among running backs by NFL.com. Please, whoever makes those rankings, watch some clips of this guy. Dude has destructive power, speed to turn the corner, and insane open-field moves. Playing hurt, he had 100-plus yards in four of his last five games, and is now healthy. Give me "The Daily Show" in the third round over DeAngelo Williams in the late first all day long. Because Stewart is better.

14. Jahvid Best - Save Pierre Thomas, is there a running back on this list who projects to see fewer eight-man fronts than Jahvid Best? Teams certainly are aware of Best's speed, but stopping Calvin Johnson is going to be their first priority. And sooner or later, stopping Tony Scheffler will probably come second. Best is a poor bet for 16 starts and goal-line carries, but has the potential to be a yardage hound. Think Steve Slaton 2008 (1,660 total yards, No. 6 fantasy RB).

15 (tie). DeAngelo Williams - Williams' 1,636-yard, 20-score 2008 season may go down as the best of his career, but he's still the Panthers' starter and plenty talented. (Even if Stewart has more.) While he's not an overwhelming value at his current ADP, Williams has upside. Carolina runs as often as anyone behind a mauling line, and D-Willy is a better pass catcher than J-Stew.

15 (tie). Ryan Mathews - We reel back first-year expectations for Mathews every time the contract dispute between GM A.J. Smith and his high-profile holdouts worsens. The stalemate took full effect Sunday when Smith announced talks would be shut down with Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill. Mathews is still a candidate for 300 or so touches, but his upside is crushed by offensive line question marks, the absence of San Diego's best run-blocking receiver, and Darren Sproles' presence on third downs.

Deep League Upside Pick: Bernard Scott - The NFL confirmed that Cedric Benson will not be suspended for allegedly spitting on and punching a restaurant worker in the face two months ago, but the fantasy prospects of his backup remain promising. Sagacious Bengals beat reporter Joe Reedy foresees a "breakout year" for Cincinnati's shifty second-year rusher, and the 5'11/220-pound Scott possesses the build of an every-down back in the event of Benson injury. Benson also showed signs of breakdown late last year while setting a carries career high.
 

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Bullish on Bradshaw?

If you think that Ahmad Bradshaw deserves to be the Giants' starting running back, you're not alone. Plenty of writers, fans and talking heads have said that Bradshaw brings more to the table than Brandon Jacobs.

However, no one realistically thought that the Giants coaches would consider featuring Bradshaw over Jacobs…until now. Through the first week of training camp, Bradshaw has reportedly kicked off each and every practice as the starting running back. He's been put into the category of "starter" by beat writer Mike Garafolo because "he's taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems."

The background here is that Jacobs was atrocious last year. He can blame the knee injury all he wants, but the fact is that he was on the field getting 15 carries a game and producing dustballs. Bradshaw was playing on two bad wheels and still averaged 4.8 yards per carry. And now Bradshaw has finally had surgeries to clean up his feet and says he feels "10 times better."

However, asking Bradshaw to touch the ball 20 times a game is asking too much. At 5'9/198, he'll wear down before Jacobs can start complaining about his role. I still expect Jacobs to be the starter come Week 1 -- remember that he's coming off cleanup surgery of his own.

But that doesn't mean that Bradshaw's role can't be expanded this season. Last season, he averaged 12.2 touches a game while Jacobs was at 16.13. With Bradshaw actually healthy now and the doubts surrounding Jacobs, look for a very even split between the two backs this time around.

Editor's Note: See exact carry projections for Bradshaw and Jacobs, in the draft guide!

NEWS OF THE WEEK #2
We're not the only ones interested in the Bears receiving corps. Beat writer Brad Biggs has been tracking who is getting targets during team drills, and the results are overwhelmingly in favor of Johnny Knox. Through last Thursday, Knox had been targeted 55 times, 16 more than anyone else on the roster. Devin Hester and Greg Olsen were tied for second at 39 apiece and Devin Aromashodu was fourth at 32.

This simply confirms what we've been suspecting for a few months now -- Knox is locked in as the starter and is primed for a breakout season. Enough said.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #3
When Kevin Walter signed a five-year, $21.5 million contract to return to the Texans in March, it looked like Jacoby Jones' sleeper status took a swift kick to the stomach. Not so fast. As we learned from the Antonio Bryant situation, money doesn't always rate. Coach Gary Kubiak has thrown the battle to start opposite Andre Johnson wide open:

"Kevin and Jacoby are going head to head," Kubiak said. "That's the bottom line. Kevin's the starter; he's earned that right. We've got a heck of a player (Jones) pushing to be a starter in this league. We're putting them right down the middle. It's very competitive."

Jones is one of our favorite late-round fliers right now as Walter won't be able to hold him off all season. But if Walter succumbs in camp, Jones becomes a legit, must-own sleeper.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #4
We can't have news of the week without mentioning Brett Favre. He started a drama of epic proportions by texting some teammates that he's done on Tuesday. Then he told ESPN's Ed Werder that he will play this season as long as he's healthy. In the meantime, the Vikings have offered him $3 million more guaranteed and another $4 million on top of that based on incentives.

No one believes that Favre is done. But just in case he is, here are the fantasy ramifications from Evan Silva.

Editor's Note: Dominate your league by using the Draftmaster!

<BIG>DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS</BIG>
RUNNING BACKS: FIRST DOWN
Beanie Wells worked with the second team in goal-line drills this week, behind Tim Hightower. … The Raiders remain noncommittal on roles for Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. … Fred Jackson is getting the lion's share of first-team reps. … Coach Todd Haley said he plans to ride the "hot hand" with his running backs this year. He's currently playing motivational head games with Jamaal Charles by sticking him with the backups. … Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan said he wants to feature one player in the running game this season (hello, Jahvid Best). … Arian Foster is way out in front of Ben Tate in the battle to be the Texans' early-down back. … Coach Raheem Morris says he'll treat his backfield with a "hot hand" mentality as well, with Cadillac Williams the starter for now. <!--RW-->

RUNNING BACKS: SECOND DOWN
Albert Young is ahead of Toby Gerhart right now. … LenDale White is expected to stick with the Broncos out of camp, but he's just depth. … Fred Taylor isn't considered a lock to make the Patriots. … Steve Slaton is getting a look as a kickoff returner, meaning he's not in the mix to be the starter. … Mike Tolbert is gaining steam as a short-yardage specialist in San Diego.

RECEIVERS: FIRST DOWN
Rookie Brandon LaFell is already getting first-team reps as Dwayne Jarrett continues to disappoint. … Kenny Britt's had another traffic citation this week as his immaturity on and off the field continues. He's running with the second team right now and is also dealing with some minor nicks … Coach Gary Kubiak insists that Troy Williamson is still in the mix for the No. 2 WR job. … Anthony Gonzalez is getting work as a punt returner while backing up Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. … SI's Peter King thinks the Bucs starting wideouts will be Mike Williams and Sammie Stroughter. … Santana Moss is not facing league discipline for his alleged HGH involvement.

RECEIVERS: SECOND DOWN
Rookie Emmanuel Sanders is making waves at Steelers camp as he tries to win the No. 3 job. … Jordy Nelson has had some big practices and one beat writer thinks he may have pulled ahead of James Jones. … Golden Tate continues to light up Seahawks camp, and is drawing praise from Matt Hasselbeck. … Rookie Jermaine Gresham was immediately installed on top of the depth chart, but reportedly looks lost out there. … Michael Jenkins is reportedly in no danger of losing his starting job to Harry Douglas, although Jenkins is dealing with a shoulder issue at the moment. …. Davone Bess is working as the Dolphins' No. 1 slot receiver, while Brian Hartline continues to run with the first team outside.

QUARTERBACKS
Sam Bradford is still working with the second team. … Patrick Ramsey has moved ahead of Chase Daniel as the Saints' backup. … Ben Roethlisberger's suspension is for a minimum of four games, the NFL confirmed. … Hunter Cantwell and Jimmy Clausen have been alternating with the second and third teams. … Charlie Whitehurst isn't putting any heat on starter Matt Hasselbeck. … Michael Vick will not be disciplined by the NFL for his role in the birthday party shootout. … Byron Leftwich is locked in as the Steelers' starter for the first four games.

Editor's Note: For constantly updating rankings, projections, cheatsheets, tiers and more, get the draft guide!

<BIG>INJURY QUICK SLANTS</BIG>
RUNNING BACKS
Leon Washington (leg) has returned to team drills. … Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) isn't expected back until after the Broncos' second preseason game. … Correll Buckhalter (back) has been medically cleared to practice but is sitting out until Monday as a precaution. … Kevin Smith (ACL) is wearing a brace on his knee but is fully participating. … Ronnie Brown (foot, knee) says he "feels great." … Steven Jackson (back) is taking live hits in practice and feeling good.

RECEIVER INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Sidney Rice (hip) is still "a ways away" from coming off the active/PUP list. … Wes Welker (ACL) participated in full team, 11-on-11 drills in full pads and emerged in good shape. … Hakeem Nicks (hyperextended knee) is back at practice already and running as a starter. … Jeremy Maclin (knee) is out with a bone bruise, but the injury is not considered major. … Antonio Gates (foot) has been practicing throughout camp. … There's no timetable yet for Antonio Bryant's (knee) return to the field. … Jeremy Shockey (knee) is back on the field, but it's only a matter of time before he gets hurt again. … Marques Colston (knee) has returned to Saints practice in full.

Editor's Note: Use myfantasyleague.com to set up your league!

<BIG>VALUE PICKS OF THE WEEK</BIG>
Last week I gave out three sleepers in this space. This week, I'm looking at wideouts with breakout potential. Here are three receivers I'm targeting in the middle rounds of all my drafts:

1. Michael Crabtree: Crabtree didn't even practice with the Niners last season until he signed his contract prior to Week 7. He still was immediately installed with the starters and averaged 4.36 catches for 56.8 yards a game over the final 11 games. With a full offseason to get his feet under him, the sky is the limit for Crabtree. Anything less than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns would be an upset.

2. Dwayne Bowe: Check out the Pancake Blocks Blog for why I'm high on Bowe this year. It's not just because he's an importer/exporter like Art Vandelay.

3. Johnny Knox: My biggest concern at this point is that the Chicago beat writers are going to send Knox's ADP through the roof. As mentioned above, Knox is locked in with the starters and you may need to use a seventh-rounder to get him by the time it's all said and done.
 

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Pierre Thomas: Still not a reliable starter
in.gif


By Eric Karabell


I don't know where former Washington Redskins running back Ladell Betts is going to sign, or if he will at all, but the fact that he was scheduled for a workout this week with the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints does make an interesting statement to me.

No, I don't expect Betts to have much fantasy value even if he signs with Sean Payton and Co. to essentially replace what Mike Bell did for this team -- or if another bruising north-south runner of his ilk does, like a Justin Fargas -- but I do think the Saints want someone to join forces with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, and that would surely affect Thomas' value.
For all the ability Thomas brings, it might surprise you to know he still hasn't rushed for as much as 800 yards in a season. Yes, his yards per touch are impressive, but are there enough touches to make him a safe top 20 running back on draft day? Thomas finished 19th in standard running back scoring a year ago, and there's nothing wrong with that, but part of me wonders if that's the best fantasy owners will see. Thomas will be more of a third running back. It's much the same way I view Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson; the ability is there, but we really depend on the touchdowns. <OFFER>A friend of mine tried to compare Thomas to a light version of Brian Westbrook, but the numbers really don't bear this out. It is nice that Thomas has scored 20 touchdowns the past two seasons, and he can catch passes, but yardage-wise he leaves us lacking. Thomas is more of a "pure" running back than Bush, whatever that's worth, and it shows in how the Saints divide their rushing attempts. But still, Thomas is not someone who gets a ton of carries. Last season 32 running backs had more than his 147 attempts.


Bush is special in his own right, of course, as one of -- if not the -- preeminent pass receiver from the running back position, but he brings even less durability to the table than Thomas and a lot fewer carries. Bush has never even run for 600 yards in a season, and it sure doesn't like this will be the year. Unless it's a point-per-reception league, I can't say I've ever thought about selecting Bush in the range someone in every league reaches for him.
The other factor here is that Bell, now likely to score the short-yardage touchdowns for the Eagles, was clearly the team's desired back in this role last season. In a dynamic Drew Brees-led offense that can move the ball as if the defense isn't even trying, there are goal-line opportunities to be had. Bell scored five times last season, four of them from 3 yards or less, and he also led the team in carries. There were rumors Lynell Hamilton could step into the role, but when similarly sized options with a track record visit, it's a clear indictment that opportunity might not occur.
Frankly, I don't think the Saints want Thomas, Bush or Hamilton to be heavy ball carriers, and I'm not trying to overrate a routine early-August visit from someone like Betts. This stuff happens and I repeat, it's not really about Betts in this case. I just wonder if Thomas is more of a third fantasy back than anyone cares to discuss. In 2008 his value was saved by the 12 total touchdowns. Last season he scored a third fewer times, although his total yards went up. There were also three games in which Thomas either didn't suit up or didn't get a carry, and he's dealing with a left hand problem that has kept him from practicing.
If someone like Betts takes over the old Bell role -- Betts does make sense, actually, even though he's coming back from a serious left knee tear -- I would lower my Thomas rank a few spots. I might do it anyway. I just don't think I would trust him as much as other running backs who catch passes, like Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy and the emerging Fred Jackson (maybe Justin Forsett, too), and then there's the matter of touchdown scorers Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber. It's odd, but Thomas doesn't really fit into either type of running back. The underused Bush doesn't either. I's not uncommon for NFL teams to offer tryouts to unemployed veterans at this time of the summer, at the dawn of the preseason. You'll see more names visiting teams soon. The Denver Broncos signed former Tennessee Titans bulldozer -- and ever so briefly a Seattle Seahawk -- LenDale White on Thursday with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter dealing with injuries. The Saints are doing this for a reason, and that reason might affect whether you view Thomas as a starting fantasy option.
 

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Don't ignore injured Knowshon Moreno
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By Eric Karabell

Before this weekend, Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno seemed like a safe, borderline top-20 fantasy option and someone who could easily turn into a stud fantasy player. One wrong step later, and I wondered if he had any value at all.

Moreno was carted off the practice field Saturday because of a hamstring injury, and immediately rumors began swirling that the injury was serious. Alas, the Denver Post reported Monday that things weren't quite so bad. Fantasy owners can rest (mostly) easy:
  • "An MRI showed no significant tear in the hamstring muscle. About midway through the practice, the former Georgia star caught a screen pass, cut and, without contact, went down in pain. While hamstring injuries vary in severity -- and no doubt Moreno popped his hammy pretty good -- there was some relief in the diagnosis because muscles tend to repair quicker than knee-ligament trauma."
The translation to fantasy owners: Things certainly could have been worse. Moreno is expected to miss three weeks, and the team believes he's not in jeopardy of missing the start of the season, which is five weeks away. As a result, I see no viable reason to adjust Moreno's ranking. Maybe I won't be quite as tempted to move him up as the regular season approaches, but to drop him below the running backs I ranked just a bit worse, like a rookie (Ryan Mathews), a guy coming off a disappointing sophomore season (Matt Forte) and someone likely in the wrong side of a clear timeshare (Jonathan Stewart) seems like a panic move. I've safely ranked Moreno 22nd overall, 15th at running back, and I'll leave him there.


Some fantasy owners will now avoid drafting Moreno over the next few weeks, but I think ignoring the second-year player would be a mistake. His hamstring didn't suffer a full tear (which could have resulted in surgery and a few missed months), and the fact that he was carted off the field shouldn't be interpreted as the injury being more serious than the team admits. The team should be cautious this time of year. Who knows, if this were during the regular season, maybe he doesn't miss any time at all. My point is a hamstring injury like this doesn't make Moreno brittle, and fantasy owners shouldn't expect it to dog him for the duration of the 2010 season.
As ESPN colleague Mark Schlereth noted in a fantasy preview of the running back, Moreno is a player on the rise. The Broncos were between run-blocking systems to begin the Josh McDaniels coaching era, but this year the team has far more confidence in both the system and the running back. Plus, as Schlereth noted, Moreno didn't share goal-line touches as a rookie, and shouldn't this season either. We at ESPN Fantasy project Moreno to finish with more than 1,200 total yards, and more than 300 touches. I still believe that to be possible.
Plus, a few minutes after Moreno hurt his hammy, "pillar-of-health" teammate Correll Buckhalter needed an ambulance after hurting his neck and back. He's expected to resume practicing before Moreno, but I wouldn't read much into that. Moreno is the obvious starter, and there's no real competition if he is healthy. The Broncos traded their No. 3 running back, J.J. Arrington, on Friday to Philadelphia, where it's unlikely he even makes the team. There are rumors the Broncos will reach out to free agent Brian Westbrook, but I can't imagine he would choose to sign with Denver unless it looks like Moreno will miss time into September. As of now, that's not the case. For those in deep leagues, I would take a look at former Kansas City Chiefs running back Kolby Smith. While I won't overrate Moreno's plight, it's easy to see how the experienced Smith could vault Buckhalter to be the best handcuff running back since he'll get the most attention in practice and games the next few weeks. Smith hasn't done much since rushing for 150 yards in Week 11 of 2007, but even in the post-Mike Shanahan era, I'd take any Broncos running back seriously, just in case opportunity knocks.
 

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The No Hambrick Zone

Felix Jones has rushed for 951 yards in his career, 284 of them on six carries.

Jones had 56, 49, 46, and 40 yard runs last year. He had 60 and 33 yard runs in 2008. Those six runs account for 29.8% of his career yardage. Take those runs away, and Jones averages 4.8 yards per carry for his career: very good, but not the eye-popping 6.5 yards per carry he currently averages.

When analyzing a running back, I like to look at the "shape" of his production. Is he a boom-or-bust back? How much of his production came on a handful of long runs? Is he the kind of back who will have a 12-carry, 16-yard game if he doesn't manage to rip off a 46-yard run?

I'm especially skeptical of guys with low carry totals and high per-carry averages. It all goes back to Troy Hambrick. Hambrick rushed for 579 yards and a 5.1 yard-per-carry average for the 2001 Cowboys, fooling some people into thinking he was a worthy heir to Emmitt Smith. Hambrick's long runs that year were 80 and 47 yards, accounting for 22% of his production. He was a very ordinary power back who surprised defenders on a few long runs, not a star in the making. Hambrick eventually became a featured back, but his 275-972-3.5-5 statline was both disappointing and misleading: one late-season 189 yard game salvaged a miserable year. He disappeared soon after that season.

Jones doesn't appear to be a Hambrick: even without his longest runs, he's very productive on a per-carry basis. (He's also a versatile receiver and return man, not a one-trick interior runner like Hambrick). Now all he needs is an expanded role in the offense. Jerry Jones keeps alternating between Jones and Marion Barber, championing a different one as his starter every few days. That's his prerogative as Caesar. At any rate, if Felix Jones does earn a 20-touch role, he'll be productive, with or without the occasional 60-yard lightning strike.



Create your own fantasy team
Pierre Thomas is another running back with a high per-carry average but an uncertain offensive role. But Thomas averaged 5.4 yards per carry without the benefit of long runs: his longest gains were just 30 and 34 yards. Thomas was very consistent, with 71 of his 147 carries netting between three and nine yards and just nine stuffs for losses. Thomas should get more carries with Mike Bell gone, but you never know with the Saints: Reggie Bush could get more opportunities, someone else might emerge, or the Saints might just throw more often. It's good to know that Thomas can grind out 70 or 80 yards, five yards at a time, if he gets 15 carries – he doesn't need a long run to produce yardage.

When talking about big gains, it's hard to ignore [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], the league's ultimate breakaway back. Johnson had runs of 91, 89, and 85 yards last year, plus a 57-yarder, a 52-yarder, and a smattering of 30+ and 40+ yarders. He totaled 693 yards on his 14 carries of over 30 yards. To put that in perspective, he would have finished 15th in the AFC in rushing based solely on those 14 carries, ahead of guys like Ronnie Brown and Willis McGahee.

Take away Johnson's top 14 runs, and his 352-1313-3.7 statline looks much more mortal, though still quite good. Even without his highlight-reel runs, Johnson can be a productive 1,000-yard back, which is good news to those of us who will be taking him first or second in a fantasy draft. Of course, Johnson's long runs won't go away this year, but it's unlikely that he'll have three 80+ yarders, either. Cut his big-play yardage in half, and you still have a tremendous player.

The player with the most Hambrick-like profile entering 2010 is Jerome Harrison, who gained 99 of his 862 yards in two carries against the terrible Chiefs defense. Harrison has a career resume filled with brief highlights and long stretches on the bench. Even without Montario Hardestry around to eat at his carries, Harrison looks like the kind of back who can kill you with one-yard runs and long doghouse sessions while you wait for that 71-yard touchdown. Harrison outgained both Thomas and Felix Jones last year, but given the choice, I would draft him third of the trio.

Finally, there's a Reverse Hambrick at the bottom of the radar screen: Jerious Norwood. Norwood had a miserable year last year, battling hip injuries and looking sluggish when pressed into service. His 76-252-3.3-0 statline is an example of what happens when a boom-or-bust back doesn't go boom: his longest run netted just 21 yards. In 2008, he produced 95-489-5.1-4, but 26% of his yardage came on runs of 40, 44, and 45 yards.

Norwood is a reminder of just how volatile a boom-or-bust back's production can be, and the dangers of projecting a limited-carry player into a larger role. Norwood could bounce back to the 500-yard level this year – though the hip injuries have already returned – but he has lost that star-in-the-making luster. All told, it's best to take away a guy's highlight-reel runs and look at what he does on more ordinary plays so you don't run the risk of overrating him. That big-play back could be another Norwood, or another Hambrick.
 

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The No Hambrick Zone

Felix Jones has rushed for 951 yards in his career, 284 of them on six carries.

Jones had 56, 49, 46, and 40 yard runs last year. He had 60 and 33 yard runs in 2008. Those six runs account for 29.8% of his career yardage. Take those runs away, and Jones averages 4.8 yards per carry for his career: very good, but not the eye-popping 6.5 yards per carry he currently averages.

When analyzing a running back, I like to look at the "shape" of his production. Is he a boom-or-bust back? How much of his production came on a handful of long runs? Is he the kind of back who will have a 12-carry, 16-yard game if he doesn't manage to rip off a 46-yard run?

I'm especially skeptical of guys with low carry totals and high per-carry averages. It all goes back to Troy Hambrick. Hambrick rushed for 579 yards and a 5.1 yard-per-carry average for the 2001 Cowboys, fooling some people into thinking he was a worthy heir to Emmitt Smith. Hambrick's long runs that year were 80 and 47 yards, accounting for 22% of his production. He was a very ordinary power back who surprised defenders on a few long runs, not a star in the making. Hambrick eventually became a featured back, but his 275-972-3.5-5 statline was both disappointing and misleading: one late-season 189 yard game salvaged a miserable year. He disappeared soon after that season.

Jones doesn't appear to be a Hambrick: even without his longest runs, he's very productive on a per-carry basis. (He's also a versatile receiver and return man, not a one-trick interior runner like Hambrick). Now all he needs is an expanded role in the offense. Jerry Jones keeps alternating between Jones and Marion Barber, championing a different one as his starter every few days. That's his prerogative as Caesar. At any rate, if Felix Jones does earn a 20-touch role, he'll be productive, with or without the occasional 60-yard lightning strike.



Create your own fantasy team
Pierre Thomas is another running back with a high per-carry average but an uncertain offensive role. But Thomas averaged 5.4 yards per carry without the benefit of long runs: his longest gains were just 30 and 34 yards. Thomas was very consistent, with 71 of his 147 carries netting between three and nine yards and just nine stuffs for losses. Thomas should get more carries with Mike Bell gone, but you never know with the Saints: Reggie Bush could get more opportunities, someone else might emerge, or the Saints might just throw more often. It's good to know that Thomas can grind out 70 or 80 yards, five yards at a time, if he gets 15 carries – he doesn't need a long run to produce yardage.

When talking about big gains, it's hard to ignore [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], the league's ultimate breakaway back. Johnson had runs of 91, 89, and 85 yards last year, plus a 57-yarder, a 52-yarder, and a smattering of 30+ and 40+ yarders. He totaled 693 yards on his 14 carries of over 30 yards. To put that in perspective, he would have finished 15th in the AFC in rushing based solely on those 14 carries, ahead of guys like Ronnie Brown and Willis McGahee.

Take away Johnson's top 14 runs, and his 352-1313-3.7 statline looks much more mortal, though still quite good. Even without his highlight-reel runs, Johnson can be a productive 1,000-yard back, which is good news to those of us who will be taking him first or second in a fantasy draft. Of course, Johnson's long runs won't go away this year, but it's unlikely that he'll have three 80+ yarders, either. Cut his big-play yardage in half, and you still have a tremendous player.

The player with the most Hambrick-like profile entering 2010 is Jerome Harrison, who gained 99 of his 862 yards in two carries against the terrible Chiefs defense. Harrison has a career resume filled with brief highlights and long stretches on the bench. Even without Montario Hardestry around to eat at his carries, Harrison looks like the kind of back who can kill you with one-yard runs and long doghouse sessions while you wait for that 71-yard touchdown. Harrison outgained both Thomas and Felix Jones last year, but given the choice, I would draft him third of the trio.

Finally, there's a Reverse Hambrick at the bottom of the radar screen: Jerious Norwood. Norwood had a miserable year last year, battling hip injuries and looking sluggish when pressed into service. His 76-252-3.3-0 statline is an example of what happens when a boom-or-bust back doesn't go boom: his longest run netted just 21 yards. In 2008, he produced 95-489-5.1-4, but 26% of his yardage came on runs of 40, 44, and 45 yards.

Norwood is a reminder of just how volatile a boom-or-bust back's production can be, and the dangers of projecting a limited-carry player into a larger role. Norwood could bounce back to the 500-yard level this year – though the hip injuries have already returned – but he has lost that star-in-the-making luster. All told, it's best to take away a guy's highlight-reel runs and look at what he does on more ordinary plays so you don't run the risk of overrating him. That big-play back could be another Norwood, or another Hambrick.
 

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Handcuff Hierarchy

"Outlined against a blue-gray October sky, the Four Horsemen rode again. In dramatic lore their names are Death, Destruction, Pestilence, and Famine. But those are aliases. Their real names are: Stuhldreher, Crowley, Miller and Layden. They formed the crest of the South Bend cyclone before which another fighting Army team was swept over the precipice at the Polo Grounds this afternoon as 55,000 spectators peered down upon the bewildering panorama spread out upon the green plain below."

With that famous passage of sports journalism from the New York Herald Tribune's Grantland Rice, the most fabled backfield committee in football history was born at Notre Dame in 1924.

Rice can be forgiven for the florid prose and mythologizing bestowed on the Four Horsemen. Fantasy football wasn't around to gut-punch the "Dean of American Sports Writers" for carrying a full-house backfield on his roster. Our peculiar pastime wasn't even conceived until a decade after the black-and-white TV era's Bull Elephant Backfield led the Los Angeles Rams to the 1951 NFL championship.

Fast forward half a century from the dawn of fantasy football, and the tandem attack is the latest plague blown in on winds of change from the fickle football gods.

The nicknames remain: Thunder & Lightning, Smash & Dash, Double Trouble, Earth Wind & Fire. But fantasy owners know the score. The "One-Two Punch" has given way to the "Three-Headed Monster" and even the dreaded "Quagmire" over the past few seasons.

The stud running back is an endangered species. How can a decent, well-meaning owner "handcuff" his first-round investment in a committee attack? That's what we're here to find out.

As laid out in last year's Top-20 Handcuffs article, here are the guidelines to keep in mind when covering your fantasy backside:

Does the backup have a clear path to a high volume of touches and weekly fantasy value?
What is the backup's talent level and track record?
What is the starter's injury history? How is his job security?
How good is the offense? Will it support a modestly talented fill-in?

Before we start, let's throw out the non-cuff committee attacks: Panthers, Cowboys, Giants, Dolphins, Bills, Raiders, Browns, Seahawks, Patriots.

Carolina is unique in that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both have ADPs in the first four rounds -- and production to match. The key to the rest of these teams is simply picking the right back. One of the other owners in your league will snatch up your committee partner before you can reasonably protect yourself. As such, these situations don't qualify for the handcuff hierarchy. On to the list.

Editor's Note: For the most up-to-date player rankings, profiles, projections, cheatsheets, and much, much more that will allow you to dominate your fantasy football league, check out the 2010 Rotoworld Football Draft Guide.

[SIZE=+1]Tier One[/SIZE]

1. Willis McGahee, Ravens - The last time McGahee had a backfield to himself, he finished as the No. 8 fantasy back for the Ravens in 2007. That was before fantasy stud-maker Cam Cameron took over play-calling duties. McGahee showed that he had plenty of life left in his legs with a career-high in yards per carry (5.0) and touchdowns (14) as Ray Rice's caddy last season. The Ravens offense has been improving each year since Cameron and John Harbaugh took over. McGahee would be a must-start fantasy back if he finds himself with a starter's workload, and he's a must-have handcuff for Rice owners.

2. Toby Gerhart, Vikings - High-quality insurance for Adrian Peterson, the Heisman Trophy runner-up is an NFL ready pounder with quick feet. The Vikes didn't spend a second-round pick on him to waste away behind a fringe talent like Albert Young, so he'll have the No. 2 job to himself by the end of the exhibition season. He's an immediate every-week asset if Peterson goes down, so owners of "All-Day" need to back up their high-dollar investment.

3. Donald Brown, Colts - Last year's first-rounder will enter the season as the clear backup to Joseph Addai, but his role is expected to expand throughout. Brown offers more big-play ability than Addai as both a runner and a receiver, and he has very little capable competition for carries if the starter goes down. In this high-powered offense, Brown could flirt with RB1 value at 18-20 touches per week.

4. Javon Ringer, Titans - With LenDale White gone, Ringer has backup duties all to himself in Tennessee. Coach Jeff Fisher will always feature an offense heavy on the ground attack, and the Titans boast one of the most effective offensive lines in the league. Ringer, who averaged 5.2 yards per on 32 combined preseason and regular season carries, is set up for high-end RB2 value if Chris Johnson's 2009 workload comes back to haunt him.

5. Bernard Scott, Bengals - Keep an eye on Brian Leonard's mid-foot injury. Scott would split snaps with Leonard if the latter is healthy. The latest report suggested he could be lost for the season. In that case, Scott would have the backfield to himself if Cedric Benson misses time. Considering Benson's 2009 overuse (25+ carries in half of his games and 100 more carries than previous high) and Scott's playmaking ability, this is a recipe for handcuff success.

Editor's Note: Use myfantasyleague.com to set up your new league!

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Tier Two[/SIZE]

All four of these backs have been dropped out of top tier because owners will have to reach earlier than they reasonably should to protect their starter. I consider all four to be pure backup material for fantasy purposes, but there's going to be at least one owner in your drafting these backs as potential starters.

6. LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets - Effervescent coach Rex Ryan recently deemed Tomlinson "the best third-down back in the league." If you weren't already convinced that promising bulldozer Shonn Greene was the main man on first and second downs, that quote should do the trick. Behind a top-notch run-blocking line, though, Tomlinson does have plenty of fantasy potential if Greene gets dinged up. Just don't reach for him in the middle rounds expecting to have a starter on your hands.

7. Thomas Jones, Chiefs - Repeat after me: it's early August. Training camp depth chart shenanigans will be long forgotten when Jamaal Charles takes ahold of the feature back job in September. There's a good reason why the Jets declined to match the Chiefs' offer to Jones: he's running on fumes at age 32, and the Jets saw it first-hand late last season. He's going to need a Charles injury to accrue reliable fantasy value.

8. Chester Taylor, Bears - Pay no attention to Taylor's four-year, $12.5 million contract. Matt Forte has a considerable talent edge, and he's fully healthy after slogging his way through multiple leg injuries last season. Forte will see the majority of touches this season, but Taylor will carve out fantasy value if injuries force him into a traditional starting role.

9. Tim Hightower, Cardinals - Yes, Hightower is still seeing a greater share of snaps with the No. 1 offense. No, this isn't a prototypical committee attack. Hightower's role was already diminishing down the stretch last season, and Chris Wells has had a full offseason to develop as a pass-blocker and receiver. No matter what the Cardinals say, Beanie is the feature back. Hightower is a change-of-pace and passing-down specialist.

[SIZE=+1]Tier Three[/SIZE]

10. Jason Snelling, Falcons - Snelling was an ideal fill-in last year. Unfortunately, many Turner owners lost out because they were counting on Jerious Norwood as the primary beneficiary of an injury to the starter. Their instincts may have been right had Norwood not been dealing with a painful hip flexor injury at the time. The change-of-pace back is expected to be healthy for the start of the regular season, so Snelling can't count on the same consistent workload in the event of a Turner injury this time around.

11. Larry Johnson, Redskins - I nearly placed Johnson and Clinton Portis in the committee category. Though all signs point to Portis entering the season as the starter, I'm leaning toward LJ as the most productive runner in this backfield. Age and loss of explosiveness are working against both runners, but Johnson stands a much better shot of holding up to 15+ touches per week. Nobody should be drafting Portis as a fantasy starter, so the handcuff necessity is basically non-existent.

12. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers - Coach Raheem Morris promises to use a "hot hand" philosophy at tailback this year. Make no mistake, though: Cadillac Williams will enter the season as the starter. He's earned that right, and Morris wants to give it to him. The Bucs' offense doesn't pack much punch, so Ward isn't a fantasy stud in the making if the injury-prone Williams goes down.

13. Darren Sproles, Chargers - Sproles certainly doesn't possess a feature back's build, but he's been useful in fantasy circles during LaDainian Tomlinson's sideline stints. The one problem is that his touches will remain inconsistent, leaving owners to guess which week he scores big. The Bolts are high on fullback Mike Tolbert as a runner and wouldn't hesitate to throw him and Jacob Hester into the mix if Ryan Mathews misses time.

14. Kevin Smith, Lions - Smith has surpassed expectations in his recovery from a late-season ACL and is now poised to enter the season as a complement to Jahvid Best. He was rarely a fantasy asset in this offense before the ACL injury, however, and the Lions may not want him handling 15-20 touches per week less than a year after reconstructive surgery.

15. Correll Buckhalter, Broncos - This handcuff isn't as strong as it may look at first glance. Buckhalter has never been a high-volume runner or a picture of health, and he was just sent to a specialist for a potentially troublesome neck/back injury. His role in Denver is to handle outside runs and passing-down work, so he'd end up forfeiting inside runs and short-yardage work if forced into a starting role.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Timeshare Backups[/SIZE]

Editor's Note: Dominate your league by using the Draftmaster!

Steve Slaton / Ben Tate, Texans - Conventional wisdom has coach Gary Kubiak utilizing a committee attack with a trio of backs, but I see Arian Foster holding onto the "starting" job entering the season. If he sustains an injury or lands in Kubiak's doghouse, Slaton and Tate would be used to accentuate their respective strengths and hide their weaknesses. Slaton's track record would give him an edge, but Tate would steal value on early downs and at the goal-line.

Reggie Bush / Lynell Hamilton, Saints - Much like the Patriots, the snaps in the Saints backfield hinge heavily on game plan and situation. Bush is the nominal starter, but Pierre Thomas is the fantasy back to own. In the event of a Thomas injury, Bush would see a slight uptick in touches with Hamilton likely taking over between-the-tackles runs.

Deji Karim / Rashad Jennings, Jaguars - With a power build and soft hands, Jennings appeared set as Maurice Jones-Drew's handcuff until the Jags picked up Karim in the draft. The freakishly athletic rookie was the talk of OTAs, showing off homerun ability and video game moves. At this point, it looks like the two backs would share the load if MJD misses significant game time.

Mewelde Moore / Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers - Look for the Steelers to go "Air Coryell" in the event of a Rashard Mendenhall injury. Dwyer isn't close to earning the coaching staff's trust, and Moore's skill-set is better suited to a passing-down role.

Mike Bell / Leonard Weaver / Charles Scott, Eagles - LeSean McCoy has a unique skill-set in the Philly backfield. Bell, Weaver, and Scott share similar strengths as power runners and would likely split touches to stay fresh if McCoy misses time. Bell, in particular, cannot physically hold up to a heavy workload.

Brandon Jackson / James Starks, Packers - Jackson finally mastered blitz pickup last year as the third-down back, but the Packers were so apprehensive about his running abilities that they brought in a washed Ahman Green as late-season insurance. While Starks has been sidelined with a hamstring injury in training camp, he has the talent to work his way into the picture should Ryan Grant go down in the regular season.

Glen Coffee / Anthony Dixon, 49ers - Coffee had the job to himself last year and promptly carried the ball 61 times at a lame 2.8 yards per pop in the 2.5 games that Frank Gore missed. This year he'll have to fend off power-back Dixon for the right to chase the elusive 3.0 yards per carry mark.

Chris Ogbonnaya / Kenneth Darby / Keith Toston, Rams - This is the ugliest backup situation in the league. Darby is a fringe talent and Toston was undrafted in April. Ogbonnaya has the early endorsement of GM Billy Devaney, but there's no guarantee of a heavy workload in this subpar offense.
 

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