CINCINNATI –1½ +1.21 over Washington
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. For Livan Hernandez, there is a point where negative RAR (runs above replacement) adds up enough to cancel out the rest of your career and create a statistical black hole. Even if you just stare at his numbers, you risk getting pulled into the abyss. Why do metrics matter?
(Month) ERA xERA
===== ==== ====
April 0.87 4.79
May 3.25 4.80
June 5.12 5.25
This is the same pitcher throughout the year when looking at his "skills" compared to his "statistics". Livan also starts out hot every April before the opposition learns his latest "tricks." Then he reverts to his previously established level - the one well below mediocrity. Hernandez, like Jon Garland, is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and at this park he could and likely will get destroyed. His last five starts came against the O’s, Mets, Padres, Giants and Marlins and four of those five teams rank near the bottom of every offensive category over the last month. Meanwhile, Edinson Volquez came off the DL and he looked like he never missed a game. He went six full against the Rocks and allowed just three hits and a run while striking out nine. He was brilliant and he was also brilliant in four rehab starts prior to that in which he went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA. The Reds lead the NL in just about every offensive category and after losing 8-5 last night and facing Stephen Strasburgh, the ball might appear in slow motion when facing Hernandez. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. For Livan Hernandez, there is a point where negative RAR (runs above replacement) adds up enough to cancel out the rest of your career and create a statistical black hole. Even if you just stare at his numbers, you risk getting pulled into the abyss. Why do metrics matter?
(Month) ERA xERA
===== ==== ====
April 0.87 4.79
May 3.25 4.80
June 5.12 5.25
This is the same pitcher throughout the year when looking at his "skills" compared to his "statistics". Livan also starts out hot every April before the opposition learns his latest "tricks." Then he reverts to his previously established level - the one well below mediocrity. Hernandez, like Jon Garland, is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and at this park he could and likely will get destroyed. His last five starts came against the O’s, Mets, Padres, Giants and Marlins and four of those five teams rank near the bottom of every offensive category over the last month. Meanwhile, Edinson Volquez came off the DL and he looked like he never missed a game. He went six full against the Rocks and allowed just three hits and a run while striking out nine. He was brilliant and he was also brilliant in four rehab starts prior to that in which he went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA. The Reds lead the NL in just about every offensive category and after losing 8-5 last night and facing Stephen Strasburgh, the ball might appear in slow motion when facing Hernandez. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
