Yay! I finally get to be on a square side!

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and I thought there was only a right side and a wrong side no matter who is on it and who isn't


usually lots of ex-post-facto analysis to justify anybody's theory that they want to believe in
 

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and I thought there was only a right side and a wrong side no matter who is on it and who isn't


usually lots of ex-post-facto analysis to justify anybody's theory that they want to believe in

There are 4 sides to every event IMO...

The right side (the side that wins)

The wrong side (the side that loses)

The square side (the side that your ESPN sports fan intuition suggests you should bet)

You might be on the square side IF...
- Your reasoning for betting this side includes the words "I think"
- The majority of the action is on this side
- You don't take into consideration what the line is at certain books
- You look at trends to formulate an opinionated side
- You use widely available public statistics to "cap"
- Your "system" doesn't take into consideration the price of a side
- You think there's "great value" at Betfair, 5dimes / Sportbet, BetJamaica, Intertops, Jazz

The sharp side (the side which the books are rooting for, generally the other side of the ESPN sports fans pick)

You might be on the sharp side IF...
- You bet off-market numbers, believing that the sports market is inefficient
- The majority of the action is on the other side
- You see great value in lines at Sportsbook, Sportsbetting, BetEd, SIA, BetOnline, SBG Global, Bet Phoenix
- Your reasoning for placing a wager is "I got a good number"
- You structure your risk to win based on the edge you have on no-vig prices at books with high limits and low juice

That doesn't make you a sharp either, that just means you have accounts at crappy sportsbooks who's lines cater to square action. The "sharp side" doesn't always win, but it does win more often than not.
 

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what you say is true, when you say majority of action where are you drawing the line at 60/40? , 70/30? 80/20? or the status of Reverse Line Movement as in how much reverse line movement or does any RLM count?
 

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For Your Information

SportsOptions reported steam on Kansas City at 11:04:57 a.m. EDT today!
 

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Games which qualifies for a sharp / square side...

Trends...

  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 road starts.
  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts.
  • Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts on grass.
  • Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts as a favorite.
  • Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League Central.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
  • Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Percentages...

Team Spread ML

967 MIN - C Pavano 67% 84%
968 BAL - K Millwood 33% 16%

Line Movement...

Line History:
Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles

RUNLINES
07/22 13:05 -1½ +105 / +1½ -114
07/22 13:06 -1½ +106 / +1½ -115
07/22 15:40 -1½ +107 / +1½ -116
07/22 15:51 -1½ +108 / +1½ -117

Current prices across the web (-1.5 / +1.5)...

"If I want to bet the Twins, I'm going to..."

Pinnacle +108 / -117
5dimes +104 / -114
The Greek +100 / -120
Jazz +100 / -120

"If I want to bet the Orioles, I'm going to..."

Bodog -110/ -110
BetOnline -110 / -110
Sportsbetting -110 / -110

Calculating edge that these have on no-vig sides (assuming you believe that Pinnacle is an efficient market and/or possesses a crystal ball more times than not)...


Pinnacle Probability EV Odds
Dog 108 0.480769231 0.471370232 112.1474654
Fav -117 0.539170507 0.528629768 -112.1474654

Other Probability EDGE
Dog -110 0.523809524 -10.01113753
Fav -110 0.523809524 0.920228438

And there you have it. According to Pinnacle's no-vig price, the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-110) has a 0.92% edge on the house. Assuming you have a $10,000 bankroll, you would structure it by placing $101.23 to win $92.02 on the Orioles +1.5 (-110) at one of those books listed above. It is reverse line movement (line moving one way whereas the majority of the bets are going the other) with a +EV bet to Pinnacle's no-vig number. If you do this over a continued period of time, you will make money sports betting.
 

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Perfectly stated

Games which qualifies for a sharp / square side...

Trends...

  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 road starts.
  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts.
  • Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts on grass.
  • Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts as a favorite.
  • Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League Central.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
  • Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Percentages...

Team Spread ML

967 MIN - C Pavano 67% 84%
968 BAL - K Millwood 33% 16%

Line Movement...

Line History:
Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles

RUNLINES
07/22 13:05 -1½ +105 / +1½ -114
07/22 13:06 -1½ +106 / +1½ -115
07/22 15:40 -1½ +107 / +1½ -116
07/22 15:51 -1½ +108 / +1½ -117

Current prices across the web (-1.5 / +1.5)...

"If I want to bet the Twins, I'm going to..."

Pinnacle +108 / -117
5dimes +104 / -114
The Greek +100 / -120
Jazz +100 / -120

"If I want to bet the Orioles, I'm going to..."

Bodog -110/ -110
BetOnline -110 / -110
Sportsbetting -110 / -110

Calculating edge that these have on no-vig sides (assuming you believe that Pinnacle is an efficient market and/or possesses a crystal ball more times than not)...


Pinnacle Probability EV Odds
Dog 108 0.480769231 0.471370232 112.1474654
Fav -117 0.539170507 0.528629768 -112.1474654

Other Probability EDGE
Dog -110 0.523809524 -10.01113753
Fav -110 0.523809524 0.920228438

And there you have it. According to Pinnacle's no-vig price, the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-110) has a 0.92% edge on the house. Assuming you have a $10,000 bankroll, you would structure it by placing $101.23 to win $92.02 on the Orioles +1.5 (-110) at one of those books listed above. It is reverse line movement (line moving one way whereas the majority of the bets are going the other) with a +EV bet to Pinnacle's no-vig number. If you do this over a continued period of time, you will make money sports betting.
 
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Aug 18, 2008
Messages
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Games which qualifies for a sharp / square side...

Trends...

  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 road starts.
  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts.
  • Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts on grass.
  • Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts as a favorite.
  • Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League Central.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
  • Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Percentages...

Team Spread ML

967 MIN - C Pavano 67% 84%
968 BAL - K Millwood 33% 16%

Line Movement...

Line History:
Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles

RUNLINES
07/22 13:05 -1½ +105 / +1½ -114
07/22 13:06 -1½ +106 / +1½ -115
07/22 15:40 -1½ +107 / +1½ -116
07/22 15:51 -1½ +108 / +1½ -117

Current prices across the web (-1.5 / +1.5)...

"If I want to bet the Twins, I'm going to..."

Pinnacle +108 / -117
5dimes +104 / -114
The Greek +100 / -120
Jazz +100 / -120

"If I want to bet the Orioles, I'm going to..."

Bodog -110/ -110
BetOnline -110 / -110
Sportsbetting -110 / -110

Calculating edge that these have on no-vig sides (assuming you believe that Pinnacle is an efficient market and/or possesses a crystal ball more times than not)...


Pinnacle Probability EV Odds
Dog 108 0.480769231 0.471370232 112.1474654
Fav -117 0.539170507 0.528629768 -112.1474654

Other Probability EDGE
Dog -110 0.523809524 -10.01113753
Fav -110 0.523809524 0.920228438

And there you have it. According to Pinnacle's no-vig price, the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-110) has a 0.92% edge on the house. Assuming you have a $10,000 bankroll, you would structure it by placing $101.23 to win $92.02 on the Orioles +1.5 (-110) at one of those books listed above. It is reverse line movement (line moving one way whereas the majority of the bets are going the other) with a +EV bet to Pinnacle's no-vig number. If you do this over a continued period of time, you will make money sports betting.

Go Blue, I've never used the no-vig line for RL purposes. Excellent point. I utilize trying to beat the no-vig Line (pinnacle) all year and obviously picking winners. I use Kelly Ratio for bankroll help. This is suggested to me from Buffett who has helped me throughout my wagering career. I'm still learning, however, my handicapping has improved dramatically over the years. Picking winners!
 

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RLM IS EXTREMELY PROFITABLE IN MLB AND CFB. SOMTHING LIKE 14 - 1 on the year in bases when its a 60/40 ratio and the line moves atleast 5 points. CFB LAST YEAR WAS 18 - 3 WHEN THE LINE MOVES ATLEAST 2 POINTS W RLM.

TWO THINGS I CANT WRAP MY HEAD AROUND

why only these two sports? and will i ever c a world champ in any sport in cleveland?
 
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RLM IS EXTREMELY PROFITABLE IN MLB AND CFB. SOMTHING LIKE 14 - 1 on the year in bases when its a 60/40 ratio and the line moves atleast 5 points. CFB LAST YEAR WAS 18 - 3 WHEN THE LINE MOVES ATLEAST 2 POINTS W RLM.

TWO THINGS I CANT WRAP MY HEAD AROUND

why only these two sports? and will i ever c a world champ in any sport in cleveland?

where'd you find this?
 

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Messages
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There are 4 sides to every event IMO...

The right side (the side that wins)

The wrong side (the side that loses)

The square side (the side that your ESPN sports fan intuition suggests you should bet)

You might be on the square side IF...
- Your reasoning for betting this side includes the words "I think"
- The majority of the action is on this side
- You don't take into consideration what the line is at certain books
- You look at trends to formulate an opinionated side
- You use widely available public statistics to "cap"
- Your "system" doesn't take into consideration the price of a side
- You think there's "great value" at Betfair, 5dimes / Sportbet, BetJamaica, Intertops, Jazz

The sharp side (the side which the books are rooting for, generally the other side of the ESPN sports fans pick)

You might be on the sharp side IF...
- You bet off-market numbers, believing that the sports market is inefficient
- The majority of the action is on the other side
- You see great value in lines at Sportsbook, Sportsbetting, BetEd, SIA, BetOnline, SBG Global, Bet Phoenix
- Your reasoning for placing a wager is "I got a good number"
- You structure your risk to win based on the edge you have on no-vig prices at books with high limits and low juice

That doesn't make you a sharp either, that just means you have accounts at crappy sportsbooks who's lines cater to square action. The "sharp side" doesn't always win, but it does win more often than not.

I just printed this out and will be framed and hung in my den.
 

Rx Local Motion
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129920-simple-red-square-icon-symbols-shapes-smilley-happy-face.png
 

New member
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good thread here, good stuff, just more weapons to use, I'll try to add something to it, my own experience with RLM is that it is really effective although it doesn't happen often when there is RLM that crosses the ZERO

for example, a team opens up as a 1 point, 2 point or 3 point dog or even PICKEM and the public is pounding the favorite (or other team in a pickem), but all of the sudden the non-public team becomes favorite,
last year it happened in the Michigan-Michigan State football game if I recall correctly
 

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