MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Saturday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (July 24, 2010)

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MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 31-34 (+97.55 Units)



Saturday, July 24



Oakland Athletics ML -113 (10 Units)

The Chicago White Sox were one of the hottest teams in MLB heading into the All-Star Break but things haven't been the same since that time. Bobby Jenks the closer has been horrendous and has been responsible for a few losses and the White Sox are only 4-4 since the Break. Their bats have managed to stay hot however as they are batting .301 in their last 10 games and are 6-4 in those games having hit lefties and righties equally well. Freddy Garcia is on the mound for the White Sox and he's arguably been one of the White Sox best pitchers in 2010 as the team is 12-5 when he is on the mound this year. That's pretty impressive considering his 4.37 ERA on the season and 1.37 WHIP. Although the White Sox are 2-1 in his last three starts, he has allowed 22 hits in 18.0 innings of work with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.50 so baserunners could be a problem for Garcia in this game. He is 5-1 on the road this season but has an ERA of 5.03 and a WHIP of 1.47 in nine away starts. He's been a lot better in night time starts than day time starts going 2-2 during the day in six starts and 7-1 during the night in 11 starts this season. For some reason he allows a lot more fly balls and Home Runs in night starts and that could be a problem today against an Oakland team that has been a lot better at hitting the power ball in 2010 than they were in past season.

The Oakland Athletics don't stand much of a chance to make the playoffs in 2010 despite a decent 48-48 record on the season. They are too deep in the Wild Card and Divisional races and unless they go on some kind of run late in the year they will have to settle for a season that at least exceeded expectations. Having said that, the A's won their last two games before the All-Star Break beating the Angels twice and then continued their success after the Break sweeping Kansas City in a road series and then coming home and winning two of three against the Boston Red Sox. They lost the first game of this series to the White Sox but are 5-2 now since the Break and have won both series they have played. The A's have been consistent with the bats on both sides of the plate in 2010 and their pitching staff has been better than expected. On the mound trying to even this series up at one is Vin Mazzaro who has pitched really well again this year. Sure the team is only 5-4 in his nine starts in 2010 but they are 2-1 in his last three starts where he has posted an ERA of 2.05 and a WHIP of 1.05 in those three starts while allowing only 18 hits in 22.0 innings of work. The only game the A's lost in his last three starts was because the bullpen came in and gave it away. Mazzaro is the opposite of Freddy Garcia as he is a much better day time pitcher posting an ERA of 2.82 in four daytime starts compared to an ERA of 4.50 in five night time starts this season. He has been impressive at home all season long and I have no problems backing Oakland when Mazzaro is pitching coming off a loss.

Freddy Garcia has made 20 career starts against Oakland and is only 6-6 with an ERa of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.39 with the Athletics batting .244 against him in those starts. Vin Mazzaro made one career start against the White Sox and he dominated them going 6.1 innings, allowing only 3 hits, with 0 ER's, 4 walks and 1 strikeout. He made 17 starts in 2009 and won only 4 games. So far in 2010 he has made 9 starts and already has 5 wins on the year so Mazzaro is well on his way and establishing himself as a pitcher that is going to be around for a long time. Chicago hasn't been that good as an underdog this year and they are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog. They have been outstanding with Garcia on the mound against AL West opponents but the A's are a lot more solid as a team in 2010 and that reign from Garcia is going to eventually start to dwindle down. Oakland is 5-1 in their last six games versus a right handed starter, they are 4-1 in Vin Mazzaro's last five starts versus AL Central opponents and they are playing some good baseball right now winning 7 of their last 9 games overall. Oakland is 29-11 in their last 40 home games against the White Sox and I just don't see them losing the second game of this series. Lazaro Diaz is behind home plate today and the Home Team is 4-1 in his last five times behind home plate. Mazzaro and the A's win this.

Trend of the Game: Oakland is 5-1 in their last six games versus right handed starters.


Oakland 7, White Sox 2





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Houston Astros ML -114 (10 Units)

The Cincinnati Reds are the obvious choice when they play against sub .500 teams that are going nowhere this season but that is about to change and those games are going to get a lot tougher for the simple fact that teams who don't have a shot at the playoffs are going to start playing some of their young guys and they are playing with nothing to lose pretty much. Cincinnati is 10 games above .500 right now and they are well on their way to the playoffs but they are only 23-22 on the road and they are 5-3 since the All-Star Break losing two games against Washington earlier this week. They beat the Astros 6-4 in the first game of this series as heavy favorites but now they jump to the underdog role with Johnny Cueto back on the mound. The Reds are 12-7 this season when Cueto pitches and he has a 9-2 record on the year. Don't you find it a bit strange that he is the underdog with those kinds numbers in 2010? Well it makes sense. Despite being 1-0 in his last three starts he has put himself in quite a few bad positions and despite the 1.50 ERA in those three starts, the Reds are 1-2 and his WHIP is 1.44 which is an obvious sign that he has control problems and too many guys get on base. Cueto pitched really well against Washington and against Philadelphia but he walked six batters in those two games combined and he got himself out of some big jams. He wasn't so lucky against the Cubs and this is not the best we have seen from Cueto this year. It seems he is regressing a bit. Cueto pitched well at home against Washington last week but I have concerns over his high WHIP and his inability to pitch 1-2-3 innings. Combine that with the fact that Cincinnati is batting only .244 their last 10 games and only .235 against right handed pitchers in those games and the Reds are probably going to find themselves in trouble if Houston swings the bats. Scott Rolen is out of the lineup again today and I don't think things will get any better.

The Houston Astros 39-57 on the year and something is not right if they are favored like this no matter who is on the mound against a team that is definitely going to the playoffs come October. The Astros are 3-4 since the All-Star and they really don't have much going for them in 2010. They are 20-27 at home this season posting one of the worst home records in all of baseball but I was impressed with their series win in Chicago earlier this week and I am willing to back them with their best pitcher on the mound. Roy Oswalt has dominated the Reds over the course of his career maybe one of the best team domination ever by a pitcher (more on this later). Right now the Astros are swinging the bats better than Cincinnati as they are hitting .254 in their last 10 games (.270 against right handed pitchers and only .215 against left handed pitchers). Their bullpen is a complete joke but if Oswalt can go the distance or very close to it they should be just fine. In his last three starts the team is 1-2 but he is 1-1, he is getting only 0.7 runs of support in those starts (which means they have scored 2 runs for him) and that's not going to cut it. Oswalt has allowed only 11 hits in 20.0 innings of work in those three starts averaging about 7.0 innings pitcher per start and his ERA is 0.90 and his WHIP 0.75 in those starts. He knows he is on the trading block and he is pitching the best we have seen from him in years. Oswalt went the distance in his last home start, a 2-0 win over Pittsburgh before the All-Star Break and the Astros should get the same kind of performance from him again in this one.

Alright so I talked about Roy Oswalt's domination of the Cincinnati Reds over the years and believe me it's one of the biggest dominations of a team I have ever seen by a starting pitcher. Oswalt is 23-2 lifetime against Cincinnati in 31 career starts and that's just incredible. In those starts he has allowe 62 ER's in 213.0 innings pitched and he has an ERA of 2.62, a WHIP of 1.13 and the Reds have hit only .237 against him. Yes that's right, 23-2. Johnny Cueto on the other hand has made 7 career starts against Houston, he is 0-4 in those starts with an ERA of 5.22, a WHIP of 1.69 and the Astros have hit .294 against him which means Oswalt should have the run support that has been missing for the most part of this season. We all know the Astros bullpen is atrocious but again Oswalt is pitching tremendously lately and he went the distance the last time at home. Cincinnati is now 1-4 in their last five road games, they are 1-5 in their last six games coming off a game where they score five or more runs the game before and they have lost four straight as an underdog so there is a reason they are underdogs in this game. Houston on the other hand is 5-1 in their last six games coming off a loss, they are 4-1 in their last five games as a home favorite and they are 9-2 in Roy Oswalt's last 11 home starts against Cincinnati. The Reds are 1-6 in Cueto's last seven starts against Houston. Brian Runge is behind home plate for this game and for some reason he hates the Reds because they are 0-6 the last six times he has been Home Plate Umpire for one of their games. Now way you can go against Roy Oswalt and his 23-2 record against Cincinnati.

Trend of the Game: Roy Oswalt is 23-2 in 30 career starts against Cincinnati.


Houston 9, Cincinnati 4





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