Here are Sherwoods plays for today.
San Francisco +1.05 over ARIZONA Pinnacle
The D-Backs are just 7-14 against lefties and will face one here that they’ve never seen (other than 5 career AB’s combined) in Madison Baumgarner. Bumgarner has a nifty 2.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 24:7 K:BB ratio over 33.2 innings and that’s with four of his five starts coming on the road. In fact, his worst start came at home in his season debut but his last four starts have all been on the road and they include games in Colorado and Milwaukee. He has a 1.69 ERA on the road to go along with a BAA of .248. Furthermore, the Giants are 13-3 over its last 16 and remain one of the hottest teams in the league. Ian Kennedy is having a decent year and could have success here. However, the D-Backs are watching him very closely and they’re being very cautious with him so it’s rare to see him go past six innings (or even five) even if he’s pitching well. An aneurysm in his shoulder limited him to just 23.2 innings last season and he has already reached 116.1 innings this year. In his last game against the Mets, Kennedy was pulled after five and he was in complete control, having only thrown 86 pitches and allowing four hits and one ER. The D-Backs are going to continue to be cautious with him because this season is a wash and thus, the Giants advantage becomes even bigger. Play: San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –1½ +1.01 over PITTSBURGH Pinnacle
The Padres love playing against this host, as do most teams, but SD is now 19-7 over its last 26 games vs the Pirates. Mat Latos was given a few extra days rest here because of a heavy workload thus far but damn, is this guy the good or what? Latos has had 16 days off between starts so he should be ready and raring to go here and his numbers are just plain sick. He’s allowed just 75 hits in 106 innings for a BAA of .193. On the road his numbers are even better. How about 41 hits in 62 frames for a BAA of .181. Overall he’s walked 28 while striking out 99 and his WHIP of 0.97 is tops in the league. Over his last four starts, Latos has three shutouts and in the other game he allowed one run. The man is gold and the Pirates have never faced him. Ouch. For the Pirates, Jeff Karstens has been pretty good since being inserted into the rotation. Still, he’s just a fourth of fifth starter and nothing about his skills stand out at all. Karstens has a 4.84 ERA, a BAA of .291, a low groundball rate of 38.7% and a high strand rate of 75.4%. He’s also allowed 18 jacks in just 83.2 innings and that works out to about 1.9 HR’s per nine innings. Padres should score at least four (probably more) and that should be more than enough to cash this ticket. Play: San Diego –1½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Kansas City +2.60 over NY YANKEES Pinnacle
It’s just a baseball game. It’s not a playoff game or it doesn’t have any special significance other than A-Rod pressing for #600. It’s not a pitching mismatch and it’s not like the Royals aren’t dangerous. Yeah, KC loses a lot of games but this is a team that unlike Baltimore and Seattle can score runs. When you have a team that can score and the take-back is this high, they’re worth a wager, especially when you consider the recent fate of Phil Hughes. Hughes is a misleading 11-3. Hughes is 1-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four starts and he’s 0-1 with a 10.57 ERA in two career starts against the Royals. What’s even more disturbing than that is the quality or lack thereof of his last 10 opponents. In fact, over his last 10 starts, Hughes has faced Baltimore twice, Seattle twice, the Mets twice, Cleveland, Houston, Toronto and the Angels. Five of those seven teams (Houston, Toronto, Seattle, the Mets and Cleveland) are at or near the bottom of every offensive category including team BA and runs scored. The other two, Baltimore and the Angels aren’t far off. Prior to this year, Hughes has never pitched more than 86 innings in a single major-league season and now he’s in unchartered territory with 106+ innings and counting. He’s been getting torched recently and it could happen again today. Meanwhile, Sean O’Sullivan just pitched against the Yanks last week as a member of the Angels. He went six full and allowed just two hits and two runs and the Angels won easy, 10-2. Oh, BTW, that was against Hughes. The second time around is a different deal and while you can’t expect the same success out of O’Sullivan, this isn’t about wagering on him. This is all about talking back 2.60 against a guy that is blowing up. Play: Kansas City +2.60 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.30 over MILWAUKEE Pinnacle
Ross Detwiler makes his season debut here and replaces Luis Atliano in the rotation. Detwiler is a former first-round pick and last February he had right hip surgery. He’s been very sharp in the minors with a 2.27 ERA over eight starts. The Nats were very cautious with Detwiler in his first four rehab starts, as he was lifted after four innings in each one. However, he subsequently got stronger and threw a combined 17 innings in his last three starts, topped off by a seven-inning, five-hit shutout in his last start on July 21. Covering 32 innings over his minor-league rehab assignment, Detwiler struck out 31 and walked just seven and he’ll face a Brewer team minus Corey Hart again. The Brewers have won just six times in 19 games that Dave Bush has started. That alone makes the Brewers an unnecessary risk laying 38¢. Bush was ripped apart in his last start in Pittsburgh when he allowed 10 hits and nine runs in four frames before being lifted. Bush is an average pitcher at best with a BAA of .287 and while he’s capable of keeping his team in games, he’s also capable of getting rocked, as he has already done so in numerous games this year. Play: Washington +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto over DETROIT
There is no line at the time of this writing, as these two will play a double-header today. However, we like the Jays in both games and as soon as the match-ups and lines come out, we’ll update this.
Kansas City +2.60 over NY YANKEES Pinnacle
It’s just a baseball game. It’s not a playoff game or it doesn’t have any special significance other than A-Rod pressing for #600. It’s not a pitching mismatch and it’s not like the Royals aren’t dangerous. Yeah, KC loses a lot of games but this is a team that unlike Baltimore and Seattle can score runs. When you have a team that can score and the take-back is this high, they’re worth a wager, especially when you consider the recent fate of Phil Hughes. Hughes is a misleading 11-3. Hughes is 1-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four starts and he’s 0-1 with a 10.57 ERA in two career starts against the Royals. What’s even more disturbing than that is the quality or lack thereof of his last 10 opponents. In fact, over his last 10 starts, Hughes has faced Baltimore twice, Seattle twice, the Mets twice, Cleveland, Houston, Toronto and the Angels. Five of those seven teams (Houston, Toronto, Seattle, the Mets and Cleveland) are at or near the bottom of every offensive category including team BA and runs scored. The other two, Baltimore and the Angels aren’t far off. Prior to this year, Hughes has never pitched more than 86 innings in a single major-league season and now he’s in unchartered territory with 106+ innings and counting. He’s been getting torched recently and it could happen again today. Meanwhile, Sean O’Sullivan just pitched against the Yanks last week as a member of the Angels. He went six full and allowed just two hits and two runs and the Angels won easy, 10-2. Oh, BTW, that was against Hughes. The second time around is a different deal and while you can’t expect the same success out of O’Sullivan, this isn’t about wagering on him. This is all about talking back 2.60 against a guy that is blowing up. Play: Kansas City +2.60 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.30 over MILWAUKEE Pinnacle
Ross Detwiler makes his season debut here and replaces Luis Atliano in the rotation. Detwiler is a former first-round pick and last February he had right hip surgery. He’s been very sharp in the minors with a 2.27 ERA over eight starts. The Nats were very cautious with Detwiler in his first four rehab starts, as he was lifted after four innings in each one. However, he subsequently got stronger and threw a combined 17 innings in his last three starts, topped off by a seven-inning, five-hit shutout in his last start on July 21. Covering 32 innings over his minor-league rehab assignment, Detwiler struck out 31 and walked just seven and he’ll face a Brewer team minus Corey Hart again. The Brewers have won just six times in 19 games that Dave Bush has started. That alone makes the Brewers an unnecessary risk laying 38¢. Bush was ripped apart in his last start in Pittsburgh when he allowed 10 hits and nine runs in four frames before being lifted. Bush is an average pitcher at best with a BAA of .287 and while he’s capable of keeping his team in games, he’s also capable of getting rocked, as he has already done so in numerous games this year. Play: Washington +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto over DETROIT
There is no line at the time of this writing, as these two will play a double-header today. However, we like the Jays in both games and as soon as the match-ups and lines come out, we’ll update this.
