All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Pittsburgh +2.06 over COLORADO
The Rockies are really going bad and while the Pirates are a welcome sight for anyone, this take-back is simply too juicy to ignore. The Rockies have dropped 10 of 12 and six in a row and that includes a four-game sweep in Philadelphia in which they scored a total of nine runs. In the last three games they faced Kendrick, Happ and Blanton and scored nine runs combined after they were shutout by Halliday in the opener. In a recent three-game set in Cincinnati, the Rocks scored four runs combined in all three games. So, over its last 12 games that include four in Philly and three in Cinci, the Rockies are batting a combined .209 and only the Mets at .196 are worse over that stretch. The Rockies also return home for the first time since the break after a long 11-game trip in which they haven’t had a day off. If the Pirates are going to win a game, one has to give them its best chance in this one. Jorge De La Rosa has had one good start in three attempts since coming off the DL. That strong effort came in his last game in Florida and it could be a good sign for De La Rosa but even so, he and the Rocks do not warrant being better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone right now. Remember, De La Rosa can be wild and he also sports a career 5.21 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .270 BAA, not exactly heart-stopping numbers. The Pirates are not as bad as its record suggests. They have a very weak rotation but its position players are young, talented, exciting and dangerous. Since the break, the Pirates are batting a combined .297, which is fourth best in the majors over that span and that includes three games in San Diego. Zach Duke is about as average as they come and his chances of getting rocked are greater than his chances of throwing a gem. Still, he’s looked sharper in two straight starts against Houston and Milwaukee after a month layoff and has an outstanding GB/FB ratio of 49%/35%. Duke’s career numbers look no worse than De La Rosa’s and anyway, this has nothing to do with wagering on Duke and everything to do with playing against De La Rosa and the Rockies as unwarranted huge chalk. Play: Pittsburgh +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.05 over SAN DIEGO
Much has been made about the Dodgers lack of hitting since the break and things surely don’t get easier in San Diego. However, the Dodgers have still won four of its last five and they also played four games at home, three in San Fran and four in St. Louis, all pitchers parks, thus, it’s lack of hitting is overstated. On the other side is the Padres, who are averaging six runs a game over that same stretch. However, they played three in Pittsburgh, three against Arizona, three in Atlanta and three in Colorado. Incidentally, in Atlanta they scored seven runs in the three games and scored one and zero runs in two of the three games. In the other one they were down 4-2 in the ninth but scored two in the ninth and two in extra frames. In other words, they were fortunate to leave with a win and could have left scoring three runs in the three games. So, the Padres strong hitting since the break is also overstated. Then we have Chad Billingsley plus a tag against Jon Garland. In four July starts Garland has an ERA of 5.73 with two of those starts coming at home against Houston and Arizona. The other two were at Atlanta and Washington. In 22 frames in July, Garland has walked 11 and struck out 15. In two starts vs the Dodgers this year, he’s walked six and struck out six to go along with a BAA of .333 and an ERA of 4.91. Garland’s numbers are a complete mirage, as this is a guy that has to get lucky to win because he rarely misses anyone’s bat. Chad Billingsley is the opposite of Garland. Here’s a guy with tremendous stuff and whose confidence is soaring when he faces the Padres. He already shut them out once this year and has great career numbers against them that include a 9-4 record with a 2.51 ERA. Current Padre batters have 28 hits in 123 AB’s for a BA of .228. Over the last three years in five starts at Petco, Billingsley has a BAA of .179. Again, Billingsley plus a price over Garland is just plain sweet. Play: Los Angeles +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1.02 over HOUSTON
The Cubbies somehow got right-sided after the break and they’re now on a 7-4 run. Since the break, the Cubs are batting a NL high .316 and they would like nothing more than to give Ted Lilly some run support. Lilly is a ridiculous 3-8 and it’s ridiculous because this guy pitches well enough to win almost every game. Lilly has allowed one run or less in five of his last nine starts. He’s 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 11 starts versus Houston, including 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his last nine. The man can flat out pitch and when his career is all said and done, maybe then folks will sit back, look at his career numbers and realize just how good he really was. For him to have three wins in 17 starts is a crime when you consider a 1.12 WHIP, a .236 BAA and just 28 walks all year in 111 innings. Brett Myers has been a model of consistency all season long. He’s pitched a full six innings in all of his twenty starts this season, which is unheard of. Whether or not Myers is approaching hitters differently than he did a year ago when he gave up a ton of jacks, we don't know. What we do know is that the bulk of his improvement is tied to a steep decline in hr/f. Even if we assume there was an injury problem affecting Myers and throw out last year's data, his historical hr/fly-ball tells us that he's been quite lucky - especially pitching at Minute Maid Park (+13% RHB HR). Myers allowed an amazing 14 HRs in 122 ABs vs. RHB in 2009 (that's the equivalent of a HR per every 11 batters) vs. 4 HR in 277 ABs vs. RHB this season. Well, the Cubbies just saw him six days ago and now they’re seeing beach balls. A Myers blowup is a distinct possibility. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +2.06 over COLORADO
The Rockies are really going bad and while the Pirates are a welcome sight for anyone, this take-back is simply too juicy to ignore. The Rockies have dropped 10 of 12 and six in a row and that includes a four-game sweep in Philadelphia in which they scored a total of nine runs. In the last three games they faced Kendrick, Happ and Blanton and scored nine runs combined after they were shutout by Halliday in the opener. In a recent three-game set in Cincinnati, the Rocks scored four runs combined in all three games. So, over its last 12 games that include four in Philly and three in Cinci, the Rockies are batting a combined .209 and only the Mets at .196 are worse over that stretch. The Rockies also return home for the first time since the break after a long 11-game trip in which they haven’t had a day off. If the Pirates are going to win a game, one has to give them its best chance in this one. Jorge De La Rosa has had one good start in three attempts since coming off the DL. That strong effort came in his last game in Florida and it could be a good sign for De La Rosa but even so, he and the Rocks do not warrant being better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone right now. Remember, De La Rosa can be wild and he also sports a career 5.21 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .270 BAA, not exactly heart-stopping numbers. The Pirates are not as bad as its record suggests. They have a very weak rotation but its position players are young, talented, exciting and dangerous. Since the break, the Pirates are batting a combined .297, which is fourth best in the majors over that span and that includes three games in San Diego. Zach Duke is about as average as they come and his chances of getting rocked are greater than his chances of throwing a gem. Still, he’s looked sharper in two straight starts against Houston and Milwaukee after a month layoff and has an outstanding GB/FB ratio of 49%/35%. Duke’s career numbers look no worse than De La Rosa’s and anyway, this has nothing to do with wagering on Duke and everything to do with playing against De La Rosa and the Rockies as unwarranted huge chalk. Play: Pittsburgh +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.05 over SAN DIEGO
Much has been made about the Dodgers lack of hitting since the break and things surely don’t get easier in San Diego. However, the Dodgers have still won four of its last five and they also played four games at home, three in San Fran and four in St. Louis, all pitchers parks, thus, it’s lack of hitting is overstated. On the other side is the Padres, who are averaging six runs a game over that same stretch. However, they played three in Pittsburgh, three against Arizona, three in Atlanta and three in Colorado. Incidentally, in Atlanta they scored seven runs in the three games and scored one and zero runs in two of the three games. In the other one they were down 4-2 in the ninth but scored two in the ninth and two in extra frames. In other words, they were fortunate to leave with a win and could have left scoring three runs in the three games. So, the Padres strong hitting since the break is also overstated. Then we have Chad Billingsley plus a tag against Jon Garland. In four July starts Garland has an ERA of 5.73 with two of those starts coming at home against Houston and Arizona. The other two were at Atlanta and Washington. In 22 frames in July, Garland has walked 11 and struck out 15. In two starts vs the Dodgers this year, he’s walked six and struck out six to go along with a BAA of .333 and an ERA of 4.91. Garland’s numbers are a complete mirage, as this is a guy that has to get lucky to win because he rarely misses anyone’s bat. Chad Billingsley is the opposite of Garland. Here’s a guy with tremendous stuff and whose confidence is soaring when he faces the Padres. He already shut them out once this year and has great career numbers against them that include a 9-4 record with a 2.51 ERA. Current Padre batters have 28 hits in 123 AB’s for a BA of .228. Over the last three years in five starts at Petco, Billingsley has a BAA of .179. Again, Billingsley plus a price over Garland is just plain sweet. Play: Los Angeles +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1.02 over HOUSTON
The Cubbies somehow got right-sided after the break and they’re now on a 7-4 run. Since the break, the Cubs are batting a NL high .316 and they would like nothing more than to give Ted Lilly some run support. Lilly is a ridiculous 3-8 and it’s ridiculous because this guy pitches well enough to win almost every game. Lilly has allowed one run or less in five of his last nine starts. He’s 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 11 starts versus Houston, including 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his last nine. The man can flat out pitch and when his career is all said and done, maybe then folks will sit back, look at his career numbers and realize just how good he really was. For him to have three wins in 17 starts is a crime when you consider a 1.12 WHIP, a .236 BAA and just 28 walks all year in 111 innings. Brett Myers has been a model of consistency all season long. He’s pitched a full six innings in all of his twenty starts this season, which is unheard of. Whether or not Myers is approaching hitters differently than he did a year ago when he gave up a ton of jacks, we don't know. What we do know is that the bulk of his improvement is tied to a steep decline in hr/f. Even if we assume there was an injury problem affecting Myers and throw out last year's data, his historical hr/fly-ball tells us that he's been quite lucky - especially pitching at Minute Maid Park (+13% RHB HR). Myers allowed an amazing 14 HRs in 122 ABs vs. RHB in 2009 (that's the equivalent of a HR per every 11 batters) vs. 4 HR in 277 ABs vs. RHB this season. Well, the Cubbies just saw him six days ago and now they’re seeing beach balls. A Myers blowup is a distinct possibility. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
