Yesterday 2 1 0 +4.18 Units Last 30 Days 34 40 0 +12.18 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 147 184 2 -1.88 Units
St. Louis +1.09 over NY METS http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
Baseball is a funny game. Here’s a Mets squad that came into last night’s game batting a combined .196 over its last 12 games. Shut out four times during a 2-9 road trip, the Mets came home and ended Adam Wainwright’s career-best scoreless streak at 26 innings and there’s not a crystal ball in the world that could’ve predicted that. Now the Mets will face a guy that threw a seven-inning, one hitter against them earlier in the year and it was no fluke. Jaime Garcia has terrific stuff and he’s only getting better. He has an off the charts GB/FB ratio of 53%/26%. Garcia has four great pitches and he isn’t afraid to use any of them in any count. When a skilled pitcher is working with the best in the business, Dave Duncan, magic happens and we’ve seen it from Garcia all season long. Garcia’s walk totals are down in July (6 BB – 20 K’s) and over his last four starts he’s allowed just five runs total. That includes games in Philly and Colorado. On the road this season in 10 starts, Garcia has an ERA of 2.96 and a BAA of .248. Johan Santana still looks like an ace on the surface (2.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), but that's where the similarities end. His base skills resemble those of a soft tosser more than a staff anchor. Santana is on a huge roll with five impressive games in a row in which he’s allowed three runs in all five games. However, prior to that he allowed four runs or more in four straight and his under the surface stats say that is more likely to occur again than his good run. You see, Santana’s GB% is just 33% and that’s a disturbing number. A 4% HR/flyball has carried his surface stats more than anything else. A low BPV (for explanation of BPV see the bottom of this page) of just 44 confirms that Santana’s skills are declining badly. Play: St. Louis +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +2.14 over COLORADO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
Back-to-back solo shots in the fifth were the only runs the Rockies were able to muster last night against Zach Duke. In total they had six hits. The Rocks have now lost seven in a row and over that stretch that includes four game in Philly and one at home, they’re batting a combined .212. Aaron Cook is a huge risk at –2.25, even against the Pirates. Over his last three starts, Cook has allowed 25 hits in 16.1 innings to go along with a 5.51 ERA and a WHIP of 1.84. You might recall last season that foot and shoulder problems ended his season short and now he’s thrown 111 innings and isn’t looking sharp. In four July starts, Cook has allowed 32 hits in 22 frames for a BAA of .337. He has 44 walks and just 51 K’s on the year and you’re really rolling the dice when you lay big juice with this guy, as he can get lit up anytime. The Pirates are fourth in the majors in team BA since the break. Russ Ohlendorf is just 1-8 but that’s a misleading number. Take out one start over his last five in which he allowed four runs in 1.1 innings, Ohlendorf has allowed only three earned runs over the other four outings. That includes back-to-back shutouts over Philly and Oakland in a combined 13 frames. That’s not to say that Ohlendorf has turned the corner because his skill set is nothing to get excited about. However, he’s not the one laying –2.25 and his chances of success here are as good as Cook’s. When you consider the current state of the Rocks, the Pirates chances of winning are almost as good as the Rockies, thus creating a big overlay. The Rockies are an extremely frustrated team at the moment. Play: Pittsburgh +2.14 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.00 over ANAHEIM http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
Note the 3:35 PM EST time. The Red Sox are getting healthier by the day and in fact, five Red Sox have come off the DL in the last week. Josh Beckett is one of them and he says he feels great. You can’t put too much emphasis on his successful return last week when he five-hit the Mariners in Seattle in five innings but his 95 MPH fastball did look good and now that the first start back is out of the way, Beckett has a great chance to succeed again here. The Angels made both Clay Bucholtz and John Lackey look terrific when both were vulnerable. The Angels have dropped six of seven and scored just 17 runs over its last six games. The Red Sox beat Jeff Weaver and Dan Haren in the first two games of this series and things surely don’t get more difficult here against Joel Pineiro. Pineiro is having a terrific season but no way are we buying into his success. This is a guy with a career BAA of .273 and a career ERA of 4.38 and that’s after pitching in Seattle and St. Louis. Pineiro has allowed 12 runs over his last three starts covering 20 innings. His BAA against this year is still .270 and many of these Red Sox hitters are very familiar with him. The Red Sox are jacked up for the stretch run while the Angels are laboring badly. Play: Boston +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
