Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00
Units Last 30 Days 31-40-1 +1.60 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 149-184-3 +2.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON +1.02 over Milwaukee
The Brewers favored in Houston with Manny Parra going up against recently acquired J.A. Happ is ludicrous to say the least. Of course the Brewers can win but one has to like the Astros chances more. Houston is coming off back-to-back wins over the Cubbies in which they outscored them 14-2. The Astros are 16-14 over its last 30 games and remain a very undervalued team almost daily. Last year Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 and that record comes after pitching most of his games at Citizens Bank Park. Happ is not as good as those numbers suggest and that’s something to get into a little later but he’ll definitely be juiced up for his new team and his teammates will want to get him a win too. Also note that Houston is a .500 team vs lefties. Manny Parra appears to be running on fumes right now. This is a guy that’s been absolutely smoked in four of his last five starts. He’s coming off a decent game against the Nats but prior to that he allowed 25 ER over 21 IP. In 22 July innings, Parra has an ERA of 8.59 and a BAA of .364. Furthermore, the Astros have seen him plenty and in fact, current Astro hitters have 96 AB’s against Parra and they have a combined 34 hits for a BA of .364. Play: Houston +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
NY Yankees/TAMPA BAY over 9 +1.01
Phil Hughes is 12-3 with a 4.04 ERA and while those numbers look decent on paper the fact is, Hughes is a tired pitcher. This is a guy that’s never pitched more than 86 frames in a season and now he’s up to 111 innings. He’s in unchartered territory and the toll it’s taking is apparent. Throw out one game in Seattle in July and in his other four starts, Hughes has allowed 20 ER in 24 innings. Since May 28, Hughes has seen his ERA balloon from 2.70 to the current 4.04. Over his last 11 games he’s also faced Seattle twice, Baltimore twice, Houston, the Mets twice, Toronto, KC, the Angels and Cleveland. The only teams over .500 in that group are the Jays and Mets and they got to Hughes for 12 ER in a combined 18 IP. Hughes has had perhaps the easiest schedule in the majors over the past three months and his numbers are no better than guys like Kyle Davies, Jeremy Guthrie or Doug Fister. It goes even further than that. Hughes has a very low GB rate of 34% and a high strand rate of 74%. Hughes has relied on control most of the year to get him through, however, his K’s are way down because of fatigue (5 K’s in his last 10 IP) and frankly, a fatigued Hughes is simply not that good. Wade Davis isn’t much better despite his numbers. Davis has an unsustainable LOB% of 79.7% and that’s a number that should not be ignored. His groundball rate is below the league average and this guy has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this season. Based on the numbers, both these teams should have plenty of runners and plenty of scoring opportunities. Both know how to cash them in and it wouldn’t surprise to see one of these teams or maybe both score seven or more. Play: NY Yankees/TB over 9 +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.15 over COLORADO
Very nice that the Rockies managed to squeeze out a victory last night over the Pirates to salvage one game in the series. The Rockies were a 3-1 favorite. This is a team that has lost to Joe Blanton, Sean Gallagher, Kyle Kendrick, Zach Duke and J.A. Happ among others during a stretch in which they’ve lost eight of 10. The two pitchers they beat over that stretch were Nate Robertson and Paul Maholm. Now they’ll face a quality pitcher in the ever-reliable Ryan Dempster. Dempster has a BAA of .240. He has 134 k’s in 140 innings and is always a threat to throw a strong game. Current Rockies have just 40 AB’s against Dempster and all they have to show for it is six hits for a BA of .150. The Cubbies are more dangerous against southpaws and will face one here in Jeff Francis. Francis is going good but he’s also been limited to under 100 pitches in seven straight starts and in 11 of 12 since coming off the DL. He has yet to throw over 100 pitches all year. By contrast, current Cubs hitter have 23 hits in 68 AB’s against Francis for a BA of .338. In no way do the Rocks have any advantage in this game, other than home field and it’s for that reason there’s great value on the visitor. Play: Chicago +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Units Last 30 Days 31-40-1 +1.60 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 149-184-3 +2.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON +1.02 over Milwaukee
The Brewers favored in Houston with Manny Parra going up against recently acquired J.A. Happ is ludicrous to say the least. Of course the Brewers can win but one has to like the Astros chances more. Houston is coming off back-to-back wins over the Cubbies in which they outscored them 14-2. The Astros are 16-14 over its last 30 games and remain a very undervalued team almost daily. Last year Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 and that record comes after pitching most of his games at Citizens Bank Park. Happ is not as good as those numbers suggest and that’s something to get into a little later but he’ll definitely be juiced up for his new team and his teammates will want to get him a win too. Also note that Houston is a .500 team vs lefties. Manny Parra appears to be running on fumes right now. This is a guy that’s been absolutely smoked in four of his last five starts. He’s coming off a decent game against the Nats but prior to that he allowed 25 ER over 21 IP. In 22 July innings, Parra has an ERA of 8.59 and a BAA of .364. Furthermore, the Astros have seen him plenty and in fact, current Astro hitters have 96 AB’s against Parra and they have a combined 34 hits for a BA of .364. Play: Houston +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
NY Yankees/TAMPA BAY over 9 +1.01
Phil Hughes is 12-3 with a 4.04 ERA and while those numbers look decent on paper the fact is, Hughes is a tired pitcher. This is a guy that’s never pitched more than 86 frames in a season and now he’s up to 111 innings. He’s in unchartered territory and the toll it’s taking is apparent. Throw out one game in Seattle in July and in his other four starts, Hughes has allowed 20 ER in 24 innings. Since May 28, Hughes has seen his ERA balloon from 2.70 to the current 4.04. Over his last 11 games he’s also faced Seattle twice, Baltimore twice, Houston, the Mets twice, Toronto, KC, the Angels and Cleveland. The only teams over .500 in that group are the Jays and Mets and they got to Hughes for 12 ER in a combined 18 IP. Hughes has had perhaps the easiest schedule in the majors over the past three months and his numbers are no better than guys like Kyle Davies, Jeremy Guthrie or Doug Fister. It goes even further than that. Hughes has a very low GB rate of 34% and a high strand rate of 74%. Hughes has relied on control most of the year to get him through, however, his K’s are way down because of fatigue (5 K’s in his last 10 IP) and frankly, a fatigued Hughes is simply not that good. Wade Davis isn’t much better despite his numbers. Davis has an unsustainable LOB% of 79.7% and that’s a number that should not be ignored. His groundball rate is below the league average and this guy has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this season. Based on the numbers, both these teams should have plenty of runners and plenty of scoring opportunities. Both know how to cash them in and it wouldn’t surprise to see one of these teams or maybe both score seven or more. Play: NY Yankees/TB over 9 +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.15 over COLORADO
Very nice that the Rockies managed to squeeze out a victory last night over the Pirates to salvage one game in the series. The Rockies were a 3-1 favorite. This is a team that has lost to Joe Blanton, Sean Gallagher, Kyle Kendrick, Zach Duke and J.A. Happ among others during a stretch in which they’ve lost eight of 10. The two pitchers they beat over that stretch were Nate Robertson and Paul Maholm. Now they’ll face a quality pitcher in the ever-reliable Ryan Dempster. Dempster has a BAA of .240. He has 134 k’s in 140 innings and is always a threat to throw a strong game. Current Rockies have just 40 AB’s against Dempster and all they have to show for it is six hits for a BA of .150. The Cubbies are more dangerous against southpaws and will face one here in Jeff Francis. Francis is going good but he’s also been limited to under 100 pitches in seven straight starts and in 11 of 12 since coming off the DL. He has yet to throw over 100 pitches all year. By contrast, current Cubs hitter have 23 hits in 68 AB’s against Francis for a BA of .338. In no way do the Rocks have any advantage in this game, other than home field and it’s for that reason there’s great value on the visitor. Play: Chicago +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
