MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Sunday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (August 1, 2010)

MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 49-48 (+106.70 Units)



Sunday, August 1


The Atlanta Braves had that game yesterday holding a 2-0 and 2-1 lead for the most part until it all fell apart somehow. Well the series is on the line today and the Braves know the importance of keeping their narrow lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and winning games like this is a must. Tommy Hanson is on the mound for Atlanta in this one and when Hanson has pitched on the road this team has won. They are 7-3 in Hanson's 10 road starts this season and despite his ball control issues at times, he has pitched somewhat well with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The important thing here being that Hanson has allowed only 3 Home Runs in those road starts and the Braves need that because Cincinnati is one of the top Home Run teams in MLB. The Braves also love to hit when Hanson is on the mound in day games because they are 4-1 in his five day time starts this season and are supporting him with 7.60 runs of support per game. Hanson is coming off two quality starts, his ERA the last three games is 3.12 and his WHIP 1.21. If anyone is going to lead them to a series win it's Hanson.

The Cincinnati Reds did it again yesterday, they came from behind and won a baseball game like they have done so many times this season. Now had Jair Jurjjens not been left in there way too long by the Braves who have a decent bullpen on the road, we would be singing a different tune I believe but the damage was done and now the series is on the line. This game probably means even more to the Reds because they are only 0.5 back in their division and losing home games is no longer an option. Having said that, I don't trust Edinson Volquez one bit because based on his last two starts since being called back up from the minors (well he made three starts but the last two were horrendous), I just can't back a guy who has allowed 10 ER's in only 6.0 innings pitched while walking 8 batters and allowing 3 Home Runs. The Reds are 1-1 in his two home starts in 2010 but his ERA in those starts is 7.56 and his WHIP 1.68 but the only reason he beat Milwaukee is because their pitching staff is the worst in all of baseball. Like I said before the Braves at least have a decent pen on the road and until Volquez shows he can control himself and have a decent outing, I'm not backing him to win anything.

In his only start of the year against the Reds this season Tommy Hanson got rocked for 8 ER's and only lasted 1.2 innings but the Braves still won the game which goes to show the effectiveness of their bullpen. He did also come to Cincinnati in 2009 and pitch 6.0 shutout innings allowing only 3 hits and winning 7-0 in that game. Edinson Volquez has made three career starts against the Braves and the Reds are 1-2 in those starts. He has allowed a total of 12 walks in those starts and struck out 23 but he has never been past the sixth inning in any of those starts which means the shaky Reds bullpen has to come in and finish the job and it has cost them in the past. Atlanta has won 36 of their last 53 games against a right handed starter. They are also 4-0 in Tommy Hanson's last four road starts versus a team with a winning record, they are 7-1 in Hanson's last eight starts when the team is coming off a loss and their are 8-2 in his last 10 starts versus a team with a winning record. Cincinnati has been a good underdog all season but they are only 1-6 on Sundays, only 1-5 in their last six as a home underdog and only 2-6 in Edinson Volquez's last eight home starts. I like the Braves to win this series.

Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 7-1 in Tommy Hanson's last eight starts when the team is coming off a loss.


Atlanta 6, Cincinnati 4





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Tampa Bay Rays ML +125 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The New York Yankees got away with one yesterday using their brand new lineup that now include Lance Berkman but if they think coming into this place and winning two of three against the Rays is going to be easy, they are in for quite the surprise. As good as the Yankees have been away from home (32-21) this season, the Rays have been just as good at home. I have concerns that the Yankees are batting only .252 against right handed pitchers on the road and only .254 overall as a team away from home but their pitching has been sensational. CC Sabathia is on the mound for the Yankees in this one and for this kind of price you would think he has been lights out on the road but he hasn't. Sabathia has made 12 starts on the road this season and the Yankees are only 7-5 in those starts while he has an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.35. His last three starts have been shaky and even though the Yankees are 2-1 in those starts, his WHIP is 1.92 and he has allowed 28 hits, walked 11 batters and gone over 120 pitches in his last two starts. I have a really hard time trusting him in this spot.

The Tampa Bay Rays also know the importance this game and the implications on the division standings so for a team that is 31-21 at home this season I don't really have a problem backing them at this price. Both games in this series have been decided by one run and you could say the Rays bullpen blew that game yesterday but that's not the case and the Rays pitching has been just as good as the Yankees this season. I find it hard to go against a team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games despite hitting only .223 in those games. James Shields is on the mound for the Rays and he has had all sorts of problems beating the Yankees in the past. I also know Shields has struggle somewhat at home this season and the Rays are only 4-6 in his 10 home starts but he has pitched somewhat well with a 1.35 WHIP in those 10 starts. The team is 2-1 in Shields' last three starts and Shields is 2-0 in those starts with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.37. Shields was lights out in his last start at home against the Tigers and I think a start like that is enough to give him confidence to finally beat the Yankees.

I want you to think of the price on the Yankees and then think that in two of his last three starts at the Trop, CC Sabathia has allowed at least 5 ER's. His last one here was a gem but he's been rocked in this place in the past and the Rays don't want to be 0-3 against him in 2010. The Rays are 0-5 in Shields' last five home starts against the Yankees and if they want to beat this team in the playoffs that has to change. Shields has allowed 3 or less earned runs in six of his last seven starts against the Yankees and he's been good enough to win. It's hard to say anything bad about the Yankees because they are so powerful but Tampa Bay is 7-0 in their last seven games coming off a loss, they are 7-1 in their last eight home games, they are 10-2 in their last 12 games versus left handed starters and it's really time to get James Shields going at home. The team has been very good in Game 3 of most series this season and they are 6-1 in the last seven Game 3's of a series. Bill Welke is a Yankee lover but today the Rays flex some muscle in the division and show that they won't be pushed around.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 10-2 in their last 12 games versus left handed starters.


Tampa Bay 6, NY Yankees 5





more to come...

I like your write-up on the Rays game, not to mention that A-Rod is apparently out of the line-up.....I am going to take a small shot also with the Rays. Good Luck today, Mista!!

Think I may play the over.

whose playing for a-rod?

cano's been a monster when he dh's


o...its ramiro pena....load up on the yankees, berkman big day today at 1b, texeira dh.......and ramiro slaps singles.....go yanks!

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Texas Rangers ML -126 (10 Units)

The Texas Rangers probably made the best trade of the 2010 season and that's been acquiring Cliff Lee from the Mariners. This is the rubber match in a huge series that is probably going to dictate how the rest of the 2010 regular season goes for both these teams. Both games in this series have been close and the Rangers should have won Game 1 but they had a breakdown late in the game and it cost them. The Rangers are only 2-2 with Cliff Lee on the mound and it wasn't until his third start that they finally got him a win but now he is back in action where he is 5-2 in 8 road starts this season. Lee has been incredible on the road with an ERA of 2.20, a WHIP of 0.92 and he has allowed only 3 Home Runs in 65.1 innings pitched away from home. Three of his four starts with the Rangers so far have been quality starts and let's not forget that Lee just beat this same Angels team for his first win as a Ranger last week. The big thing for me when two aces are on the mound is a reliable bullpen and the Rangers pen has an ERA of only 2.88 on the road this season. The Rangers are one of the best hitting teams in baseball and I trust they can get to Jered Weaver in the rubber match of this series.

The Los Angeles Angels have struggled big time this season and their 53-53 record just goes to show that times are changing and this is not the same Angels team that had dominated the NL West for the past few years. They won the opener of this series by scoring 8 runs in the first four innings but that was against the Rangers Tommy Hunter and now we are talking about having to face the defending Cy Young winner from 2009 who already beat them last week at home. The Angels are batting only .222 against lefties in their last 10 games and only .246 against them this season. Jered Weaver is their ace but the Angels are only 11-11 in his 22 starts this season and only 1-2 in his last three starts. He has an incredible ERA of 1.88 at home this season and has a 0.99 WHIP in 10 home starts but again the team is only 6-4 in those 10 starts and they have provided Weaver with only 3.60 runs of support in those games. The Angels have now gone 7 consecutive Jered Weaver starts without scoring more than 3 runs in a game and that would be why the team is 2-5 in those games despite Weaver putting together 5 Quality Starts out of those seven games. The Angels are no longer ruling this division and it will show in games like this. Their bullpen has an ERA of 4.14 at home and 5.04 in their last 10 games. Need I say more in a pitcher's dual?

So the way I see it is that both Cliff Lee and Jered Weaver are going to pitch gem's like they almost always do and this game is going to be low scoring and will probably be decided late. Once the starters leave (if they actually leave in this game), the bullpens make their way in and that is where the Rangers have been so dominant all season long. I have a feeling Weaver is going to be left in the game a lot longer than he should be because the Angels want to avoid going to that pen. Cliff Lee has pitched 5 straight Quality Starts against the Angels and his team (Cleveland, Seattle and the Angels) is 5-0 in his last five starts against them. He has not allowed more than 2 ER's in any of his last five starts against these guys and only once in his last 10 starts against the Angels has he allowed more than 2 ER's. The Angels has been equally good beating the Rangers the last four times they have been here but his run support is not the same anymore and his bullpen is not what it used to be. Texas scored only 2 runs in yesterday's win and they are 5-1 in their last six games coming off a game where they scored 2 runs or less. They are also 15-5 in their last 20 road games and 14-6 in their last 20 versus AL West opponents. The Angels are 1-5 in their last six home games, they are only 2-9 in Weaver's last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record on the year and they are 0-4 when Weaver is on the mound following a team loss the game before. I like the Rangers and their pen here.

Trend of the Game: LA Angels are 2-9 in Jered Weaver's last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record.


Texas 5, LA Angels 2





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San Diego Padres ML +132 (10 Units)

The Florida Marlins totally screwed me over the last time Josh Johnson was on the mound on the road and I have no reason to back them again here as they go for the road sweep that almost nobody expected. I was on the Marlins yesterday but now as heavy favorites on the road there is no chance. Keep in mind that Florida is 25-25 on the road this season and batting only .253 away from home. Their pitching on the road has been horrendous with the starters putting together an ERA of 4.46 and the bullpen 3.94. Johnson has been tremendous as a pitcher this year but how in the world can you pay that massive price for a guy who has made 8 road starts in 2010 and the Marlins are only 3-5 in those starts. Johnson is 3-1 in those starts but the bullpen has blown four of his starts and I have no reason to believe they won't do it again here. Johnson has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2010 that's for sure but the Marlins lost his last road start 6-4 in San Francisco and they also lost 4-3 in Atlanta a few weeks back. I don't doubt he is going to have another top notch performance in this game but again this Marlins bullpen has lost 4 of his 8 road starts and I just don't see why it wouldn't happen again in this one.

The San Diego Padres are leading the NL West right now but just barely as the surging San Francisco Giants are only 1.5 games back of them in the division and closing in quickly. The Padres have lost the first two games of this series while scoring only 5 runs in two games so it's hard to believe they could beat one of the best pitchers in all of baseball coming off a team loss in his last road start. Having said that, the Padres have been good all season, their starting pitching and their bullpen have been well above average at home and I think and the team is 6-2 in Game 3 situations this season coming off a loss the game before. John Garland is on the mound today and believe it or not he's actually been more effective than Josh Johnson is you compare their last three starts. He has allowed only 14 hits compared to Johnson's 20, his WHIP is 1.08 compared to Johnson's 1.20 and he is getting 6.0 runs of support per start compared to Johnson's 3.0 runs of support. He has been great at home where the team is 7-4 in his 11 home starts and his ERA in those starts is 2.53 with a 1.32 WHIP. His last two home starts have been gems and the Padres have an outstanding bullpen to takeover for Garland once he leaves after his usual 6 innings of work. He's been too good at home to go against.

Wow what is up with the road team winning 7 of the 8 meetings between these two teams in 2010? The Padres twice went to Florida and came away with series wins both times and now it seems the Marlins are in San Diego to return the favor since they already won the series. What I find interesting is that in three career starts against the Padres, Josh Johnson has pitched 22.0 innings, he has allowed only 12 hits and 3 ER's while walking only 2 batters and striking out 24 but somehow the Marlins are only 1-2 in those starts. On two occasions they gave him 1 or less runs of support in those starts and that's just not going to work. Garland on the other hand is 2-0 against the Marlins in 2010 and he's been brilliant both times allowing only 2 ER's, 7 hits while striking out 14 batters in 12.2 innings of work. Garland has made 6 career starts against Florida as a member of the White Sox, Diamondbacks and now Padres and his team is 5-1 in those starts, all six of them Quality Starts where he has allowed less than 3 ER's each time and only 1 ER in four straight starts against the Marlins. Believe it or not the Marlins are 2-5 in Josh Johnson's last seven road starts as a favorite and I've learned my lesson on this team. San Diego is 6-0 in their last six Sunday games, they are 8-1 in their last nine Game 3 of a series, they are a perfect 4-0 in their last four attempts to avoid a three game sweep and they are 39-15 coming off a loss the game before. Gerry Davis is a big time homer home plate umpire with the home team winning 23 of his last 32 games and I think the Padres come out on top in another pitcher's dual.

Trend of the Game: San Diego is 8-1 in their last nine Game 3 of a series.


San Diego 3, Florida 1





more to come...

Best of luck

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San Francisco Giants ML -109 (10 Units)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are having some big time problems right now and if they don't get their acts together in a hurry, playoff hopes are going to disappear and the 2010 will be nothing short of a disaster. Right now they sit 7.0 games behind the Padres in the division and they sit 5.5 games behind this very same San Francisco team in the Wild Cars standings. Here is the problem with this Dodgers team. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games, they have lost the first two games of this series and the reason they are struggling is because the team is batting an MLB low .174 in their last 10 games. Clayton Kershaw has arguably been their best pitcher this season and he heads to the mound in an attempt to avoid a season crushing sweep at the hands of the Giants. Kershaw is 10-5 on the season but only 4-3 on the road. He has not been as successful away from home where his ERA is 3.08 and his WHIP 1.42. He has allowed 49 hits and walked 26 batters in 52.2 innings pitched on the road this season and that's just too many base runners for this surging Giants team. In his last road start, Kershaw went to St. Louis and got pounded for 8 hits, 4 ER's in a 7-1 loss to the Cardinals. He also got crushed in a start against the Angels on the road in late June. Had this been a daytime home start I would have considered the Dodgers but Kershaw is not the same on the road and the Dodgers bullpen has no confidence after Broxton blew that save yesterday.

The San Francisco Giants are a fun team to watch when they are winning and I don't know what their actual record is against left handed pitchers in this ballpark but I remember a few years back someone posted a thread that if you consistently bet on the Giants at home against lefties, you will make a fortune and I tend to believe it seeing how this team is batting .299 against lefties at home this year. I also have a lot more faith in the Giants bullpen at home with their 2.94 ERA this season and it's worth noting that the team is batting .270 in their last 10 games. On the mound tonight is Matt Cain who has pitched extremely well in 2010 but for some reason he is only 8-8 and the team is 10-11 when is on the mound despite his 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. Having said that, Cain is 5-3 at home this season with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He doesn't have much run support in those games which is why the team is 6-4 but in his last three starts overall, the Giants are 3-0 (Cain is 2-0), his ERA is only 2.05, his WHIP is only 0.82 and he has gone at least 7.0 innings in all three starts. This team is finally starting to win when Cain pitches and his confidence right now has to be at an all-time high. With the chance to go for the sweep tonight I think we see another vintage Cain performance and it's going to come at the expense of a horrendous hitting slump the Dodgers are currently experiencing. Give me the Giants for the sweep.

There will be fights in the stands that we can all enjoy on Youtube this upcoming week and there will be blood, sweat and tears once this is all said and done. Having said that, I love the Sunday Night Baseball matchup for the first time in months (I can't remember the last bettable Sunday Night Game this season) and I have to believe both teams understand the importance of winning this game. Clayton Kershaw has made 3 career starts against the Giants and pitched three gems allowing only 4 ER's in 20.0 innings of work while striking out 28. The problem is that the team is 2-1 in those starts, all three starts were at home and the two wins were by only one run. Matt Cain has lost his last four starts against the Dodgers but he catches them at the right time, with Manny and Andre Ethier out of the lineup and the Dodgers batting .174 in their last 10. The Dodgers are only 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog, they are 2-8 coming off a loss the game before and they are 0-7 in their last seven games as a road underdog. I know Kershaw has been great against NL West opponents and he's been great at home but the Dodgers are only 1-4 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. The Giants have won six straight against NL West opponents, they are 20-6 in their last 26 games overall, they are 5-1 in Matt Cain's last six home starts and I think this game means a lot to him for the simple fact that he has lost four straight to the Dodgers. Like I mentioned before, he catches them at a perfect time.

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 5-1 in Matt Cain's last six home starts.


San Francisco 4, LA Dodgers 3





:toast:

Have you seen what the Dodgers first 4 hitters are hitting vs cain

Not a bad day. Hit the big one and again the Braves jacked me. Congrats to all winners.

good day today mista