I hear ya BAS. I coudln't agree with you more.
I had a great card last night as I played CWS -141, Hoston +126, Atlanta -111, TB +130, LA Dodgers +113, LAA +124. My bad one was really bad with the Nats +147 but I think the anti-sweep crowd moved that one against me. I should have been paying more attention to that. Half of these were offers made late last night at Matchbook right before I went to bed.
Results wise I had one of my best days of the year today but none of that had anything to with the actual games today. It's a long term thing with these plays. This has to be the way one thinks with baseball but most times people just don't think this way espeically in a moneyline sport like bases but you just have to be patient and know that the long term it will all add up.
Best example I can give is I am having a great baseball season for my standards; winning in the 3-4% range which is double my overall win rate in all sports, so that is huge (hope I am not jinxing myself, knock wood, LOL). The problem is these results/numbers don't start to fall into place for me till until about 2,000 total bets are placed which is where I hit lately and now things have fallen nicely into place for me (knock on wood again). So the first few months when I was consistently making good bets and seeing non favorable results I got very frustrated but I hung in there because I rememebr the exact same thing happening lto me ast year during baseball season and now as we hit August everything is right in line with my last baseball season results. It's just variance and it can be a sports bettors worst enemy and that is why I am being so cautious with how I am saying this, LOL. I have been there way too many times with baseball but eventually it smoothes out.
I don't believe this enough myself but baseball is the easiest of the 3 major sports to beat if you can just hang on for the wild ride. This is hands down or maybe college hoops. The reason its the easiest is the volume becomes your friend at the end of this as it eventually takes the luck out (that is if you are playing with an edge). Sounds crazy but it is the #1 thing I have learned in the past 2 years. Sure we all love fotball season, the wekend, etc.. me included for that matter but give me a full season of baseball and for my time spent, my money won, etc.... its just way more advantageous for me to bet baseball. In fact football is probably the hardest to have a winning season for this very reason, not enough volume unless you make more volume.
Easiest way to explain all of this is for every $10 I bet I win $3-4 during baseball season, which doesn't sound like much but after hundreds of bets and thousands of bets it really can add up. I think the best statement of how important this is I will say no doubt in my man without betting early and getting a good price books there is no way I would win betting basebal, absolutely no way possibile. I don't know how anyone does it against widely availibile numbers. I can't believe LONGTERM wise it can be doen unless you are in dozens of books and finding lines better then Pinny and MB but that isnt easy with bases espeically.
In fact if someone asked me to sum up what I do and why I have won in 1 sentence. Without hesisation I would say "because I bet early". You name the sport and that is why but keep in mind you have to also know which is the right side and where the mistakes in the line are and that is a whole other story.
Just my two cents on something I feel very very strongly about.
