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Thursday, August 5
Chicago White Sox ML +129 (10 Units)
The White Sox are well on their way in the AL Central and there is no reason to believe they would slow down in this game. The lead over the Minnesota Twins is only 1.5 games and they really can't afford to sit back and lose games like this one today. The series is on the line with the White Sox having won two of the first three games and I feel a lot more comfortable having money on the underdog who are 8-2 in their last 10 games and batting .319 in those games instead of the favorite who are 2-8 in their last 10 games and batting only .243. In those same 10 games, the White Sox pitching staff has an ERA of 2.83 while the Tigers pitching staff has an ERA of 5.12. Freddy Garcia looks like an easy fade and the price fits the way he has pitched in 2010 but 8 of his last 10 starts versus Detroit have been quality starts and the White Sox are 9-1 in those starts. They are also 9-2 in Garcia's last 11 starts overall and have won seven straight games played on a Thursday. Detroit on the other hand have dropped 17 of their last 22 overall, they are 3-14 in their last 17 games versus right handed starters, they are 0-5 in Max Scherzer's last five starts versus AL Central opponents and the White Sox have won 8 straight games in Detroit when Freddy Garcia is on the mound. It doesn't get much better than that.
Trend of the Game: Chicago is 8-0 in Freddy Garcia's last eight starts in Detroit.
Chicago 6, Detroit 1
more to come...
Thursday, August 5
Chicago White Sox ML +129 (10 Units)
The White Sox are well on their way in the AL Central and there is no reason to believe they would slow down in this game. The lead over the Minnesota Twins is only 1.5 games and they really can't afford to sit back and lose games like this one today. The series is on the line with the White Sox having won two of the first three games and I feel a lot more comfortable having money on the underdog who are 8-2 in their last 10 games and batting .319 in those games instead of the favorite who are 2-8 in their last 10 games and batting only .243. In those same 10 games, the White Sox pitching staff has an ERA of 2.83 while the Tigers pitching staff has an ERA of 5.12. Freddy Garcia looks like an easy fade and the price fits the way he has pitched in 2010 but 8 of his last 10 starts versus Detroit have been quality starts and the White Sox are 9-1 in those starts. They are also 9-2 in Garcia's last 11 starts overall and have won seven straight games played on a Thursday. Detroit on the other hand have dropped 17 of their last 22 overall, they are 3-14 in their last 17 games versus right handed starters, they are 0-5 in Max Scherzer's last five starts versus AL Central opponents and the White Sox have won 8 straight games in Detroit when Freddy Garcia is on the mound. It doesn't get much better than that.
Trend of the Game: Chicago is 8-0 in Freddy Garcia's last eight starts in Detroit.
Chicago 6, Detroit 1
more to come...
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Thursday, August 5
Seattle Mariners ML -122 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I doesn't matter who Felix Hernandez is going up against these days, when he is on the mound the team has a big time chance of winning the game. I find some serious value in this play tonight for a couple of different reasons. The first being that it's one of the final games on the board tonight and 70% of the betting public is trying to hedge their losses by betting on one of the best teams in baseball in 2010, the Texas Rangers. The problem with that is that they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, they have lost three of their last five games and they are batting only .254 in their last five games. That's not too far off from Seattle batting .246 in their last 10 games and being 2-8 in those games. In his last two starts Felix Hernandez has been provided with only 1 run of support in both games combined but both games were on the road and I don't see that happening again. Tommy Hunter is 8-1 on the season and is on the mound for the Rangers tonight but in his last three starts he has an ERA of 6.06, a WHIP of 1.10 and had it not been for the 21 runs of support his batters gave him I don't think he would have won any of the starts. Don't forget he has an ERA of 5.21 on the road this season and without run support he would not be 8-1 on the season. Texas is 1-5 in their last six Game 3's, they are only 1-4 in their last five games coming off a win and despite their success in the past playing in Seattle, I don't think they'll get by Hernandez. Seattle is 13-3 in Felix Hernandez's last 16 starts at home against a team with a winning record on the season, they are 13-5 in his last 18 home starts and 5-2 in his last seven starts versus the Rangers. I think we see some vintage Hernandez tonight coming off those two road losses.
Trend of the Game: Seattle is 13-3 in Felix Hernandez's last 16 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.
Seattle 3, Texas 1
:toast:
Thursday, August 5
Seattle Mariners ML -122 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
I doesn't matter who Felix Hernandez is going up against these days, when he is on the mound the team has a big time chance of winning the game. I find some serious value in this play tonight for a couple of different reasons. The first being that it's one of the final games on the board tonight and 70% of the betting public is trying to hedge their losses by betting on one of the best teams in baseball in 2010, the Texas Rangers. The problem with that is that they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, they have lost three of their last five games and they are batting only .254 in their last five games. That's not too far off from Seattle batting .246 in their last 10 games and being 2-8 in those games. In his last two starts Felix Hernandez has been provided with only 1 run of support in both games combined but both games were on the road and I don't see that happening again. Tommy Hunter is 8-1 on the season and is on the mound for the Rangers tonight but in his last three starts he has an ERA of 6.06, a WHIP of 1.10 and had it not been for the 21 runs of support his batters gave him I don't think he would have won any of the starts. Don't forget he has an ERA of 5.21 on the road this season and without run support he would not be 8-1 on the season. Texas is 1-5 in their last six Game 3's, they are only 1-4 in their last five games coming off a win and despite their success in the past playing in Seattle, I don't think they'll get by Hernandez. Seattle is 13-3 in Felix Hernandez's last 16 starts at home against a team with a winning record on the season, they are 13-5 in his last 18 home starts and 5-2 in his last seven starts versus the Rangers. I think we see some vintage Hernandez tonight coming off those two road losses.
Trend of the Game: Seattle is 13-3 in Felix Hernandez's last 16 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.
Seattle 3, Texas 1
:toast:
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Friday, August 6
Cincinnati Reds ML -101 (10 Units)
We are down to the nitty gritty now in baseball and this is where the real teams separate themselves from the pack and make playoff runs that takes them all the way into October. The Reds are lined up to be one of those teams and they are 5-0-1 in the six series they have played since the All-Star Break meaning they are one of the hottest teams already in the second half of the season. Game 1 has been somewhat of a problem for the Reds since the Break but they are still 4-2 in those games. Bronson Arroyo is on the mound for the Reds in this one and the last time he pitched here was earlier this season in a 12-0 drubbing at Wrigley Field. Tom Gorzelanny pitched once against the Reds this season and it was in a 3-1 road loss. Both starters have sketchy ERA's in their last three starts but Arroyo has been a lot more effective with his 0.97 WHIP in those starts compared to Gorzelanny's 1.63 WHIP in those last three starts. The Reds are 8-3 in Arroyo's 11 starts away from home this season where he has an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.08 while getting 5.09 runs of support per start. The Cubs are only 3-5 in Gorzelanny's eight home starts in 2010 where he has an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.54 and that just won't cut it against this Reds team who are 4-1 in their last five road games, 9-1 in Bronson Arroyo's last 10 road starts versus a team with a losing record, 9-2 in Arroyo's last 11 starts on a Friday and 11-5 in his last 16 starts overall. Chicago is 2-10 in their last 12 games played on a Friday, they have lost 7 of their last 8 games overall and are 0-5 in their last five games versus a right handed starter. They are 1-5 in Tom Gorzelanny's last six starts versus the NL Central Division and now they have to face a guy like Arroyo who has dominated them the last few years. I'll take the Reds for sure at this price.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 9-1 in Bronson Arroyo's last 10 road starts versus a team with a losing record on the season.
Cincinnati 5, Chicago 2
more to come...
Friday, August 6
Cincinnati Reds ML -101 (10 Units)
We are down to the nitty gritty now in baseball and this is where the real teams separate themselves from the pack and make playoff runs that takes them all the way into October. The Reds are lined up to be one of those teams and they are 5-0-1 in the six series they have played since the All-Star Break meaning they are one of the hottest teams already in the second half of the season. Game 1 has been somewhat of a problem for the Reds since the Break but they are still 4-2 in those games. Bronson Arroyo is on the mound for the Reds in this one and the last time he pitched here was earlier this season in a 12-0 drubbing at Wrigley Field. Tom Gorzelanny pitched once against the Reds this season and it was in a 3-1 road loss. Both starters have sketchy ERA's in their last three starts but Arroyo has been a lot more effective with his 0.97 WHIP in those starts compared to Gorzelanny's 1.63 WHIP in those last three starts. The Reds are 8-3 in Arroyo's 11 starts away from home this season where he has an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.08 while getting 5.09 runs of support per start. The Cubs are only 3-5 in Gorzelanny's eight home starts in 2010 where he has an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.54 and that just won't cut it against this Reds team who are 4-1 in their last five road games, 9-1 in Bronson Arroyo's last 10 road starts versus a team with a losing record, 9-2 in Arroyo's last 11 starts on a Friday and 11-5 in his last 16 starts overall. Chicago is 2-10 in their last 12 games played on a Friday, they have lost 7 of their last 8 games overall and are 0-5 in their last five games versus a right handed starter. They are 1-5 in Tom Gorzelanny's last six starts versus the NL Central Division and now they have to face a guy like Arroyo who has dominated them the last few years. I'll take the Reds for sure at this price.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 9-1 in Bronson Arroyo's last 10 road starts versus a team with a losing record on the season.
Cincinnati 5, Chicago 2
more to come...
