FTW here are my thoughts. Not going to post my plays at the RX, but here are my opinions.
Toronto Blue Jays (B. Morrow) @ New York Yankees (A.J. Burnett)
Morrow - Been decent lately, but not decent against quality teams. He's won two in a row, both against the O's where he gave up 2 ER in each contest. Prior to the two O's wins, he gave up 5 R (4 ER) at home vs. Boston and then 5 ER in just 6 innings at the NYY just under a month ago.
Burnett - Back to back shut out performances against bad teams (Indians and Royals). He has posted 4 great starts out of his last 5 (got roughed up for 4 ER against Tampa on July 17th). His last outing verse the Jays he pitched 6 and 1/3 of shutout ball.
Jays (as a team) - Come in posting a 13-11 July record (6-7 verse teams .500 or better). 5 of their 11 losses came by 2+ runs.
Yankees (as a team) - Come in posting a 19-7 July record (9-4 verse teams .500 or better). 15 of their 19 wins were by 2+ runs.
Trends - Yankees are 9-1 their last 10 homes games and 76-25 their last 101 home games.
Line movement - Opened at or around -175 and now up to -185... appears to be moving with the action as the public is on the Yankees.
Play: Yankees -1.5 (+110)
Going to play the RL here as there is more value in getting plus money than laying heavy juice due to the fact that the Yankees simply pound their opponents when they do win.
Cleveland Indians (F. Carmona) at Boston Red Sox (J. Lackey)
Carmona - Coming off of one of his worst outings of the season as he got blasted for 7 ER on 10 hits in just 2 and 2/3 innings in a home start against the Yankees. Prior to that he was pitching DECENT, giving up anywhere between 3 to 5 runs a start with the exception of throwing 5 innings of shutout ball verse the Rays.
Lackey - Coming in with 3 straight quality starts (1.63 ERA during that stretch). The Red Sox were winnings of all 3 (two opponents having winning records and two were road games). Lackey has a career 3.71 ERA against the Indians in 14 games started.
Indians (as a team) - Come in posting a 13-14 July record (every team that they played had a winning record). 11 of their 14 losses came by 2+ runs.
Red Sox (as a team) - Come in posting a 12-13 July record (4-3 verse teams with a losing record). 6 of their 12 wins came by 2+ runs.
Trends - Indians are 14-14 their last 28 games.
Line movement - Opened on or around -200 and has stayed fairly consistent there even those Boston seems to be getting more action.
Play: Indians +180
Going to play the Indians on the ML here as they have been around a .500 team the past month or so while playing very good teams (as noted above their last 28 games were all against opponents over .500). No point to play the RL here as Cleveland seems to get blasted on the RL as nearly all of their losses were by 2+ over the past month. I also feel that Carmona will bounce back and if what goes up must come down so must the Red Sox and Lackey as they are 8-1 his last 9 starts and he is NOT a good enough pitcher for those numbers to stay true for much longer.
Toronto Blue Jays (B. Morrow) @ New York Yankees (A.J. Burnett)
Morrow - Been decent lately, but not decent against quality teams. He's won two in a row, both against the O's where he gave up 2 ER in each contest. Prior to the two O's wins, he gave up 5 R (4 ER) at home vs. Boston and then 5 ER in just 6 innings at the NYY just under a month ago.
Burnett - Back to back shut out performances against bad teams (Indians and Royals). He has posted 4 great starts out of his last 5 (got roughed up for 4 ER against Tampa on July 17th). His last outing verse the Jays he pitched 6 and 1/3 of shutout ball.
Jays (as a team) - Come in posting a 13-11 July record (6-7 verse teams .500 or better). 5 of their 11 losses came by 2+ runs.
Yankees (as a team) - Come in posting a 19-7 July record (9-4 verse teams .500 or better). 15 of their 19 wins were by 2+ runs.
Trends - Yankees are 9-1 their last 10 homes games and 76-25 their last 101 home games.
Line movement - Opened at or around -175 and now up to -185... appears to be moving with the action as the public is on the Yankees.
Play: Yankees -1.5 (+110)
Going to play the RL here as there is more value in getting plus money than laying heavy juice due to the fact that the Yankees simply pound their opponents when they do win.
Cleveland Indians (F. Carmona) at Boston Red Sox (J. Lackey)
Carmona - Coming off of one of his worst outings of the season as he got blasted for 7 ER on 10 hits in just 2 and 2/3 innings in a home start against the Yankees. Prior to that he was pitching DECENT, giving up anywhere between 3 to 5 runs a start with the exception of throwing 5 innings of shutout ball verse the Rays.
Lackey - Coming in with 3 straight quality starts (1.63 ERA during that stretch). The Red Sox were winnings of all 3 (two opponents having winning records and two were road games). Lackey has a career 3.71 ERA against the Indians in 14 games started.
Indians (as a team) - Come in posting a 13-14 July record (every team that they played had a winning record). 11 of their 14 losses came by 2+ runs.
Red Sox (as a team) - Come in posting a 12-13 July record (4-3 verse teams with a losing record). 6 of their 12 wins came by 2+ runs.
Trends - Indians are 14-14 their last 28 games.
Line movement - Opened on or around -200 and has stayed fairly consistent there even those Boston seems to be getting more action.
Play: Indians +180
Going to play the Indians on the ML here as they have been around a .500 team the past month or so while playing very good teams (as noted above their last 28 games were all against opponents over .500). No point to play the RL here as Cleveland seems to get blasted on the RL as nearly all of their losses were by 2+ over the past month. I also feel that Carmona will bounce back and if what goes up must come down so must the Red Sox and Lackey as they are 8-1 his last 9 starts and he is NOT a good enough pitcher for those numbers to stay true for much longer.
