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Holliday remains an elite outfielder by staying in St. Louis


In the end, it didn't seem like there was anywhere else but St. Louis for Matt Holliday to land. The New York Mets signed Jason Bay, the Boston Red Sox signed John Lackey and New York Yankees were already over budget (for now).

And besides, St. Louis isn't a bad place to play either. Holliday put up some of the best numbers of his career after he was acquired by the Cardinals at the 2009 trade deadline -- a .353 average with 13 home runs and 55 RBI in just 63 games.

The merits of giving him a seven-year, $120 million contract can be debated, but one thing that's undeniable is that he'll continue to thrive as long as he's hitting behind Albert Pujols.

The only question is whether he'll be a top-5 fantasy outfielder the way he was in Colorado.

Holliday hit .319 with a .938 OPS for the Rockies from 2004-08 and averaged 26 homers and 97 RBI over his five seasons there. Traded to Oakland last offseason, he hit just .286 with 11 homers and 54 RBI in 93 games and skeptics immediately blamed his slump on the move away from Coors Field.

Perhaps he was trying too hard to overcompensate for the spacious Oakland Coliseum because his contact rates were virtually identical with the A's and Cardinals, but his slugging percentage went from .454 to .604.
It will be difficult for Holliday in 2010 to continue to put up the monster numbers he did with the Cardinals after joining them last season. But something close to the .321 average with 25 homers and 88 RBI he posted in his final season with the Rockies could serve as a baseline -- especially since he only played in 139 games that season.

If Holliday stays healthy (and Pujols does too), we can expect something along the lines of .320, 30 HR and 110 RBI with maybe 10 stolen bases thrown in.

Are those numbers good enough to make him a top-5 fantasy outfielder? Most definitely. Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp may be the only other National League outfielders capable of doing any better.
 

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Rangers leading charge for Vlad Guerrero


The Texas Rangers have been the epitome of all-offense, no-pitching for a long time. That may be changing with Nolan Ryan running the show as team president.

But the team still has to hit well to be competitive in that ballpark. That's why it makes a lot of sense for them to pursue Vladimir Guerrero to be their full-time DH. The Rangers website seems to indicate the team would like to have Vlad as their cleanup hitter this season now that Marlon Byrd has signed with the Cubs.

I recently took part in a 12-team mock draft for RotoWorld's preseason magazine and amazingly, Vlad was still available in the 22nd round. Perhaps his free agent status was scaring the others off. Maybe it was his DH-only eligibility. But Vlad can still hit.

He had a .295 average last season with the Angels with just 15 homers in 100 games. But he has worn the Rangers out in the past, especially in their ballpark. In 50 games he's played at Arlington, Vlad has a .394 average and a .705 slugging percentage.

Don't forget about him if you're drafting early. His value will jump considerably if and when he joins the Rangers.

If a deal for Guerrero falls through, the website says Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield, Jim Thome and Xavier Nady could be fallback options.
 

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Cuban defector Chapman reportedly joining Reds


Thankfully, the stakes aren't as high for fantasy owners when it comes to untested Cuban defectors who reportedly can throw close to 100 mph.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports is reporting that left-hander Aroldis Chapman has agreed to a five-year, $30 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds. The 22-year-old Chapman was the subject of an intense bidding war this offseason -- one that surprisingly didn't include big-market teams such as the Yankees and Mets.
For fantasy owners, there's a considerable amount of risk in selecting Chapman, especially in redraft leagues. The bigger question is how valuable he'll be in keeper leagues. Certainly raw talent like his doesn't come around very often. If things work out perfectly, the Reds could have a starting rotation in 2011 featuring Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey and Chapman -- who will all be 23 to 27 years old.
Though No. 1 overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg comes into this season with comparable raw talent and similar questions about his immediate impact, Chapman will also have to adjust to living in a new country.
Chapman figures to get a shot as a starting pitcher -- he was one of the top starters on the Cuban national team that participated in the 2009 World Baseball Classic -- but his control can be a problem at times. (In two starts in the WBC, Chapman was 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He struck out eight and walked four in 6 1/3 innings.)
Some scouts raved about Chapman's talent, while others are convinced he won't amount to anything more than an effective reliever in the majors.
Tough call. Especially with $30 million on the line. From that perspective, spending a first-round pick in an NL-only league farm draft isn't such a big deal after all. Strasburg is still the preferred choice for fantasy owners, but Chapman would make a nice consolation prize.
 

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Sandoval gets a boost with Giants signing Huff


The San Francisco Giants may have filled what looks like their last open spot on offense by agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with infielder Aubrey Huff. Although Huff isn't likely to make a major impact on the Giants, his arrival is a great thing for the one Giants hitter who really matters to fantasy owners -- Pablo Sandoval.

First of all, Huff just turned 33 and his best days are likely to be behind him. He had a very nice 2008 in Baltimore (.304, 32 HR, 108 RBI), but dropped off considerably last season. He was traded to Detroit for the stretch run, but only hit .189 with two homers and 13 RBI in 40 games as the Tigers faded from playoff contention.

For that reason, he'll likely be used in a platoon situation at first base for the Giants against right-handed pitchers. If the Giants had signed a higher-profile free agent to play first (Adam LaRoche, for instance), they would have felt compelled to play him there every day. But now, the switch-hitting Sandoval will likely play first base against lefties and third base against righties -- keeping his dual-eligibility intact for this season and next.

In his first full season in the majors, Sandoval was the runner-up for the 2009 NL batting title with a .330 average. With catcher Bengie Molina leaving, Sandoval will inherit the cleanup spot in the batting order and should improve on his team-leading total of 90 RBI. And as USA TODAY's Jorge Ortiz reports, a slimmer Sandoval has been on fire in the Venezuelan Winter League.

As a result, I'm moving Sandoval up a couple spots in my first base rankings -- above Lance Berkman, Joey Votto and Kendry Morales -- and putting him virtually even with Mark Reynolds at 1B/3B.

The Huff signing will also mean fewer at-bats for Juan Uribe, who could have been the everyday third baseman if Sandoval was locked in at first. Mark DeRosa, whom the Giants signed to a free agent deal earlier in the offseason, will likely see most of his action in the outfield.
 

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Bounce-back candidate: Daisuke Matsuzaka


In 2010, Daisuke Matsuzaka will be entering his fourth season as a member of the Boston Red Sox. The first two were quite successful (33-15 record, 3.72 ERA), but last year was a rocky one for Dice-K. He struggled with injuries and clashed with team officials over his training and rehab regimen.
Matsuzaka also caused great pain to his fantasy owners -- posting a 4-6 record, 5.76 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 59 1/3 innings. As a result, his stock will be way down in this spring's fantasy drafts.
However, some things have come to light this offseason that suggest Matsuzaka's horrible 2009 showing may have been because he never was completely healthy. Dice-K told a Japanese magazine that his injuries began while he was training for the World Baseball Classic.
The Boston Globe had a translator go through Dice-K's quotes. Among the more interesting:
I didn't want to be the center of concern for people. I didn't tell the trainers. Fortunately, I was in charge of my own training, so if it (hip joint) started to hurt, I could adjust to not hurt myself. But pitching while hiding the injury was very difficult. Even when I didn't feel the pain, my body was holding back because it sensed the danger.
Matsuzaka won all three of his starts in the WBC and helped lead Japan to the title. But by compensating for his hip injury he ended up hurting his shoulder. He tried to pitch in pain during the season and twice went on the disabled list, but he never told the team's medical staff the extent of his injury.
I didn't want to show my weaknesses. I didn't want them to think I was making excuses. I would rather be criticized than ridiculed for making excuses.
So what will 2010 have in store for Dice-K? He did finish last season strong, winning three of his last four starts with an ERA of 2.22. He's apparently 100% now physically and has made peace with the Red Sox over his training methods. At age 29, he should still be able to contribute -- especially with the John Lackey signing pushing him back to the No. 4 slot in the rotation.
In USA TODAY's preseason fantasy magazine, Matsuzaka is projected for 13 wins, 163 strikeouts and a 4.51 ERA this season. With the possibility of even better numbers at a discounted price, Dice
 

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2010 preview: Utley the class of NL second basemen


When it comes to fantasy options at second base, everyone else is playing for second place. Philadelphia's Chase Utley is a bona fide run producer at an extremely shallow position, especially in NL-only leagues. He's almost a lock for 30 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs scored every season. Heck, he even stole a career-high 23 bases last year at the age of 30.
So when it comes to positional draft strategy, Utley should be a top priority because of the huge advantage he'll give you over the rest of your competition. (Top five overall? How about top three.)
There's really only one other National Leaguer who comes anywhere close to Utley and that's Brandon Phillips of the Reds. Phillips has established a consistent baseline performance level and fantasy owners can count on him for both power and speed. He's coming off his third straight season of 20+ homers and 20+ steals.
After that, there are very few sure things.
I may have him a little high at No. 3, but Colorado's Ian Stewart could be one of 2010's breakout performers. Stewart hit 25 homers and drove in 70 runs last season while dividing his time between second (21 games) and third (121). He'll take over the Rockies' starting job at third base, but will be more valuable as a second baseman. There are some drawbacks, however. Stewart strikes out a lot and his .228 average may induce convulsions, but a .275 BABIP was a contributing factor.
Atlanta's Martin Prado is another overlooked second baseman. He didn't have a full-time job until midseason, but he finished with solid 2009 numbers (.307, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 64 RS). In fact, his .822 OPS was fifth-best among second basemen -- in both leagues. With eligibility at first base and third base as well, Prado will be a solid starter at 2B in NL-only leagues and one of the top utility guys in fantasy.
Speaking of dual-eligibility, Placido Polanco will be playing third base for the Phillies but he only qualifies at second to start the season. His presence in such a potent lineup will give him plenty of chances to score and drive in runs.
<TABLE border=1 width=400 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD>1</TD><TD>Chase Utley</TD><TD>Phi</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>Brandon Phillips</TD><TD>Cin</TD></TR><TR><TD>3</TD><TD>Ian Stewart</TD><TD>Col</TD></TR><TR><TD>4</TD><TD>Martin Prado</TD><TD>Atl</TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>Placido Polanco</TD><TD>Phi</TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>Rickie Weeks</TD><TD>Mil</TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>Dan Uggla</TD><TD>Fla</TD></TR><TR><TD>8</TD><TD>Skip Schumaker</TD><TD>StL</TD></TR><TR><TD>9</TD><TD>Freddy Sanchez</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>Clint Barmes</TD><TD>Col</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>Luis Castillo</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR><TD>12</TD><TD>Casey McGehee</TD><TD>Mil</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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Knee surgery clouds Beltran's future with Mets


Knee surgery will keep Carlos Beltran sidelined until after the start of the 2010 season ... and it goes without saying that he should be moved waaaay down fantasy draft boards.


Exactly how long will Beltran be out of action? With that kind of surgery and Beltran's history (he missed 2 1/2 months last season with knee problems), it doesn't look like he'll be back until sometime in May -- at the earliest. And even then, he'll still have to work his way into game shape.
Since there really aren't any center fielders left on the free agent market (and don't even think about Johnny Damon trying to patrol all that ground at Citi Field), Angel Pagan will inherit Beltran's spot to begin the season. Pagan did a credible job last season filling in for Beltran (.306, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 54 RS, 14 SB), but he's not the long-term answer.
In our preseason rankings for USA TODAY's fantasy baseball magazine, Beltran was the No. 6 outfielder in the National League and No. 11 overall. With the uncertainty surrounding his return, he falls out of the top 25 in NL-only leagues and out of the top 50 overall.
So what's Beltran's future with the Mets? They could have moved him to left field while he recovers -- except they've just signed Jason Bay. If he can still hit, perhaps they could try him at first base.
What also went unsaid in the original news story is that Beltran had the surgery without the team's blessing. After receiving a second opinion from his own doctor, the Mets had asked Beltran to wait for them to evaluate the information before having the procedure. However, he went ahead and had the surgery on Wednesday.
That could lead to a nasty battle between team officials and Beltran's agent, Scott Boras, over whether the surgery violated his contract (which has two years remaining).
This isn't likely to end well.
 

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Valverde provides good value as Tigers closer



The Detroit Tigers pitching staff just got a lot better with the addition of closer Jose Valverde. The two-year, $14 million deal gives Detroit a major upgrade at the back end of the bullpen and saves (no pun intended) the club from having the oft-injured Joel Zumaya or the untested Ryan Perry as their go-to guy in the ninth inning.
The price may end up being well worth it for the Tigers. They have a solid starting rotation with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer -- and they'll probably end up adding another free agent to help round out the staff. Plus, having Valverde close will move flamethrowers Zumaya and Perry into more comfortable setup roles. (They also picked up Phil Coke from the Yankees in the trade for Curtis Granderson.)
Valverde's value jumps considerably now that he's secured a full-time closer's gig. With another 40-save season possible, he slots at the top of the second tier of closers -- 10th overall. In the AL, I'm putting him sixth -- behind Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Papelbon and Joakim Soria.
Although Fernando Rodney did convert 37 of his 38 save chances last year for the Tigers, he was a bit of a high-wire act with that 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. (It's no surprise the Angels signed him not to close, but be a setup man for Brian Fuentes.)
Valverde led the National League in saves in both 2007 and 2008 before struggling with injuries last season and only converting 25 save chances. As a Type A free agent, he really didn't have many options this offseason -- and the Tigers were the only contending team still looking to sign a closer. In addition to Valverde's contract, the Tigers had to swallow hard and give up the 19th overall pick in this year's draft to the Astros as compensation.
 

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New contract makes Felix Hernandez even more valuable


A number of general managers are feeling the heat this offseason for their questionable personnel decisions, but the Seattle Mariners' Jack Zduriencik seems to be getting nothing but praise from fans, sabermetricians and fantasy owners alike. His latest move: locking up ace pitcher Felix Hernandez with a reported five-year, $78 million contract extension.

Hernandez led the majors in wins last season when he went 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA and a 217/71 K/BB ratio. He was the second-best fantasy pitcher in the AL behind Cy Young winner Zack Greinke and he figures to just keep getting better. In fact, USA TODAY's preseason fantasy baseball magazine ranks him No. 1 among AL pitchers this season and behind only San Francisco's Tim Lincecum overall.
Not only should Hernandez continue to improve with experience (he's made 30 or more starts in each of the past four seasons), but the Mariners have made a commitment to building an excellent defense behind him with the likes of RF Ichiro Suzuki, CF Franklin Gutierrez, 3B Chone Figgins, SS Jack Wilson and 1B Casey Kotchman.
Suzuki, Gutierrez and Wilson were the best defenders in the majors at their position according to the 2009 Fielding Bible Awards (voted on by Bill James, John Dewan, Peter Gammons and seven other experts). And Figgins was No. 1 among third basemen in Dewan's 2009 plus-minus rankings.
In addition, Hernandez is one of those rare ground-ball pitchers who also get strikeouts. In our preseason magazine, BaseballHQ.com's Ron Shandler projects Hernandez will be good for 17 wins and another 200+ strikeout season with an ERA right around 3.00.
For those in AL-only keeper leagues, having him stay in pitcher-friendly Seattle for five more years is just icing on the cake. That's quite a change from a franchise that has seen the likes of Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez get away.
 

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Ben Sheets shows his (91 mph) stuff for potential suitors


Free agent pitcher Ben Sheets worked out yesterday at the University of Louisiana at Monroe to show scouts he's fully recovered from elbow surgery he had nearly a year ago. If so, and depending on where he signs, he could be a nice fantasy sleeper in 2010.
Sheets hit 91 mph in the first of three separate throwing sessions. Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse reports that the Cubs, Mets, Rangers, Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Reds and A's all sent representatives to watch Sheets with the Cubs, Mets and Rangers the favorites to sign him. (Sheets reportedly wants a two-year deal.)
I tend to agree with Hot Foot blog's Anthony DeRosa that Sheets would be a good fit for the Mets. They certainly need him after the offseason they've had. Joel Pineiro may be a solid, if unexciting addition, but he isn't the kind of impact pitcher who could make a difference the way a healthy Sheets can.
The Rangers have already signed a major injury risk for their starting rotation this offseason in Rich Harden (for $6.5 million). Unless they can get Sheets at a discount since they were considering signing him last year, I don't see things working out.
The Cubs are an interesting possibility because it would put Sheets back in the familiar surroundings of the NL Central division. He'd even get to pitch against his former Brewers teammates. There may be a sense of urgency for the Cubs as well with No. 2 starter Ted Lilly expected to miss the first month of the season due to shoulder surgery. Of course, pitching in the NL raises Sheets' fantasy value, especially if the other option is pitching in Texas.
Can Sheets be successful after sitting out all of last year? He's 31 and did win a career-high 13 games in 2008. He's always been a fantasy favorite because of his low WHIP and excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. As the Magic 8 Ball used to say, "signs point to yes."
 

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An early look at one list of baseball's top 10 prospects


Finding the next great young talent is one of the biggest challenges in fantasy baseball. How youngsters develop is such a crapshoot and often sabermetrics and scouting reports don't agree. Project Prospect just released its overall top 10 list and it's not really a surprise to find Braves outfielder Jason Heyward at No. 1. In a post on Wednesday, we had a link to their alphabetical list ... but now we have the actual rankings. (Their top 25 will be out next week.)
I'll let you click on their link to get all of the top 10, but at this point only Heyward, Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz are better than 50-50 shots to start the season in the major leagues.
In fact, the 20-year-old Heyward could hit his way into Atlanta's opening day lineup with a strong showing in spring training. Strasburg could be good enough to be Washington's opening day starter, but the Nationals figure to bring him along slowly to ease the pressure of being last year's No. 1 overall draft pick. As for Matusz, he's already being taken in a number of mixed-league mock drafts as a late-round pick. He'll begin the season as a No. 3 or 4 starter for the Orioles
 

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Royals, Mets swing and miss with Ankiel, Matthews Jr.

It's almost too good to be true. Earlier this week, we mentioned the virtual "contest" between Royals GM Dayton Moore and Mets GM Omar Minaya to make the worst possible personnel moves. (Tip of the hat again to FanGraphs' Matt Klaassen)

They're apparently at it again.
Yahoo's Tim Brown is reporting the Royals have agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Rick Ankiel, who hit 25 homers with the Cardinals in 2008 but just 11 last season.
Not to be outdone, the Mets have struck a deal with the Angels to acquire outfielder Gary Matthews Jr., according to Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman. That move comes after they struck out on free agent targets Bengie Molina and Joel Pineiro earlier in the week.
It's a long shot that either player does enough to warrant even a bench spot in fantasy leagues this year.
Ankiel, 30, saw his batting average (.231), on-base percentage (.285) and slugging percentage (.387) all drop considerably from 2008. He actually played in a career-high 122 games last season, but lost considerable playing time after St. Louis acquired Matt Holliday.
Perhaps the Royals aren't counting on Jose Guillen to be a full-time player this year and Ankiel splits time in right field. Or maybe he forms a lefty-righty DH combination with Josh Fields. Either way, 300 at-bats with a .240 average and 15 homers seems about right.
Everything is summed up oh-so-nicely by Royals Review, which presented its "Top Five Reasons to Love the Rick Ankiel Signing." (My favorite: "Ankiel combines the outfield defense of Scott Podsednik with the plate approach of Mike Jacobs.") But believe it or not, FanGraphs' Dave Cameron actually likes the move for a mere $3 million.
Matthews, 35, has been a spare part in Anaheim since signing a huge free agent deal three years ago. The Angels will receive reliever Brian Stokes and pick up all but $1.5 million of Matthews' remaining contract.
With the Mets, Matthews could get an occasional start in center field in place while Carlos Beltran is out or split time with Jeff Francoeur in right. But it's hard to see him making much of an impact when there's no DH spot available.
What about Matthews' defense, you say? He did make one spectacular catch while playing for the Rangers. But ESPN's Jerry Crasnick points out that Matthews' glove has gone downhill since those days.
As for the reaction in Angel Nation, MonkeyWithAHalo.com says the deal calls to mind the words of P.T. Barnum: "There's a sucker born every minute."
So, with that information in mind ...
 

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Is Miguel Cabrera still an elite hitter?


In the wake of the revelation that he spent the last three months in an alcoholism treatment program, Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera now says he feels like "a new man."
Cabrera's much-publicized meltdown at the end of last season could have cost the Tigers the AL Central title. In fantasy drafts so far, Cabrera is a late first-round, early second-round pick ... but does this revelation change your opinion of him?
With the depth at first base and the importance of getting elite production out of those first few picks, some drafters may now have reservations about taking Cabrera that high.
Don't let him go past the 15th pick in mixed leagues. Without Pujols, Fielder and Howard in AL-only leagues, go ahead and pay full price.
Elsewhere around the web ...
One of my favorite NL-only league sleepers is Brewers shortstop Alcides Escobar. He has a chance to do this season what the Rangers' Elvis Andrus did last season -- hit for a decent average and pick up a good number of stolen bases. FanHouse's Matt Snyder says he's someone to watch develop in 2010, but stash away for 2011 and beyond.
And FanHouse's Knox Bardeen also lists a couple more guys who could give you stolen bases at a bargain price this year.
From the back-from-the-scrap-heap department, David Golebiewski of FanGraphs says there are signs that Francisco Liriano might be able to bounce back this season -- though not to his nearly-unhittable 2006 form. Liriano figures to battle Brian Duensing for the No. 5 starter's job in Minnesota.
Can't wait to see the Twins play at open-air Target Field? The Minneapolis Star-Tribune thinks Jim Thome could be there in a Minnesota uniform.
Meanwhile, BaseballHQ.com's Troy Martell takes a look at what effect the new park will have on those hitters the Twins already have under contract.
Fighting Chance Fantasy's Ryan Hallam recaps some of the pitchers who've changed teams this offseason and offers his analysis.
And finally, Fantasy Ball Junkie answers the question: "Pedroia is to Mauer as Chris Davis is to ??"
 

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Tejada's fantasy value increases slightly in Baltimore


Miguel Tejada is back in the American League and back with the Orioles. Overall it's not an earth-shattering move since Tejada, at age 35, seemed to overachieve last season with the Astros when he hit .313 and drove in 83 runs.

Tejada has proven to be extremely durable over his career and he did play 158 games last season with the Astros. (David Golebiewski of FanGraphs also notes that Tejada doesn't walk much and has a very high contact rate, which helps explain why he hit into the most double plays in the majors last season.) He should still be good for some runs and RBI in a Baltimore lineup that doesn't look too bad in 2010, but don't expect him to hit with much power anymore since he only managed a total of 27 homers during two seasons in Houston.
Moving to the American League, Tejada inches up slightly in the rankings at shortstop for a couple reasons. First of all, the position isn't as deep in the AL. Had he stayed in the NL, I had Tejada as the 10th-best shortstop, right ahead of Ryan Theriot and Brendan Ryan. In the AL, Tejada slots in at No. 7 -- right behind Marco Scutaro and just ahead of Erick Aybar.
The second reason he could have a bit more value is the Orioles' plan to move him to third base. His fielding has been on the decline for several years now and the O's hope he'll be less of a liability at third base. His return solidifies Garrett Atkins as the O's first baseman and Ty Wigginton as a super-utility guy.
Although Tejada probably won't be a fantasy starter at third, the added position flexibility he gives fantasy rosters could make him an attractive low-cost option on draft day. Consider him a low-end starter at short in AL-only leagues and a useful utility guy in mixed leagues. I'm moving him up four spots to 15th overall among shortstops.
 

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Sheets poised to succeed in pitcher-friendly Oakland

Perhaps now the free agent dominoes will finally start to fall.

The Oakland A's have apparently won the Ben Sheets derby. It's a bit of a gamble for Sheets going to the American League and facing unfamiliar hitters. His fantasy value might have been greater as a Met or a Cub, but at least he's going to an excellent pitcher's park in Oakland. And he'll get a decent chance to prove himself -- and set up a bigger payday next year.
I mentioned in an earlier post that Sheets hit the low 90s with his fastball in a workout for scouts last week. That was enough to convince at least the A's that he's worth the risk -- coming back from elbow surgery that cost him all of last season. He's always had a low WHIP and an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, which have contributed to a 3.72 career ERA.
CBS Sports' Danny Knobler reports that Sheets agreed to terms on a one-year, $10 million deal. A's manager Bob Geren says Sheets immediately becomes the team's opening day starter.
Oakland now has the makings of a formidable rotation with veterans Sheets and Justin Duchscherer to go with promising youngsters Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden and Vin Mazzaro. And don't forget, they have the AL rookie of the year in closer Andrew Bailey.
After the first wave of free agent signings, it's certainly been a buyer's market this offseason. Players like Johnny Damon are just sitting and waiting -- hoping they'll get a decent contract so they can figure out where to show up for spring training.
USA TODAY colleague Bob Nightengale has a nice overview of the free agents who are still available.
Yahoo's Tim Brown says outfielder Xavier Nady has agreed to a one-year deal with the Cubs -- although Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports notes that Nady missed all of last season as well and must still pass a physical.
The Mets (John Smoltz?) and Twins (Jim Thome?) are two other clubs who don't seem to be finished assembling their rosters.
Meanwhile, the White Sox say they aren't interested in bringing Thome back.
And the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay thinks the Reds should consider signing Orlando Cabrera. They could use a better stick at shortstop. There has also been some speculation that they'd be interested in signing Orlando Hudson and moving Brandon Phillips to shortstop. (That move would make Phillips owners quite happy.)
 

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Draft Only If You Dare...

Some fantasy owners like to work up lengthy draft day manifestos and never-ending lists of so-called "sleepers." Color me unimpressed. These lists and pre-conceived strategies are worthless once an owner discovers his or her draft slot and picks begin falling off the board. It's better to enter drafts with a cool head and a willingness to take chances, as corny as that may sound. There are some risks, however, that should not be taken. Below I'll run you through some of the players I have flagged for the 2010 season -- players I won't be targeting (well, for the most part).

[Average Draft Positions -- ADP -- were taken from Mock Draft Central]

Questions, comments, beef? Hit me up on Twitter.

Lady Liberty holds a plaque that reads "Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!" You can have 'em, girl. I want players with health and upside.

[SIZE=+1]Rafael Furcal - SS - Dodgers ADP: 130[/SIZE]

It's hard to find value at shortstop these days. Beyond the obvious studs -- Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter -- there's a pretty severe drop-off in talent and fantasy value. Way down in the fourth or fifth tier is where you should find Furcal this season. He batted just .269/.335/.375 with nine home runs in 2009 and stole only 12 bases in 18 tries. The 32-year-old has a balky left ankle and a back that required surgery in July of 2008. He is old, unproductive and a walking injury risk, and yet he's still being selected 130th overall in mock drafts this year. We can do better, people. Why not grab Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera (ADP: 161), the Rangers' Elvis Andrus (ADP: 174), or even Orlando Cabrera (ADP: 194) instead?

[SIZE=+1]Scott Sizemore - 2B - Tigers ADP: 329[/SIZE]

Facing a small budget crunch and operating in a city where homes can be purchased for as little as $1.00, the Tigers kept the spending at a minimum this winter. The lineup could use another power bat and an established second baseman would have been nice, but instead manager Jim Leyland and Co. are putting a little faith in some of the organization's youngsters. Sizemore will be one of the main beneficiaries. The second baseman hit .307/.402/.535 in 228 at-bats at Double-A last season and .308/.378/.473 in 292 at-bats once he was promoted to Triple-A, but he's logged zero major league plate appearances and he could be in for a rude awakening in his rookie year. Some owners might be intrigued by his speed on the base paths and will look to grab him as drafts are winding down. Don't waste your time.

[SIZE=+1]Aubrey Huff - 1B - Giants ADP: 324[/SIZE]

The Giants got very little production from the first base position last season and decided to bring in a new face this winter, nabbing Huff on a one-year, $3 million deal. It's a move they might regret, and not because of the salary. The 6-foot-4, 33-year-old left-hander struggled to a .241/.310/.384 batting line last season between Baltimore and Detroit and hit just 15 home runs in 597 plate appearances. Sure, he smashed 32 dingers and compiled a .912 OPS in 2008, but his decline is real and he should be avoided in nearly every mixed league draft. Huff mans a position where fantasy value runs deep and AT&T Park tends to squash home run numbers for anyone not named Barry Bonds. Oh, and let's not forget about the big fella's ongoing groin issues.

[SIZE=+1]Scott Podsednik - OF - Royals ADP: 317[/SIZE]

The Royals have made several questionable transactions in recent offseasons, but the signing of Podsednik has to rank near top of the list. Peel back the curtain a bit on his otherwise impressive 2009 campaign and it's pretty easy to see how this marriage might backfire. The speedy outfielder turns 34 in March, has lost some of his effectiveness as a base stealer (30-for-43 on thievery attempts in '09) and he's moving away from the power-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field. To make matters worse, he may have to split time in center this season with the newly inked Rick Ankiel. Do yourself a favor: In drafts this spring, grab outfielders who actually bring something to the table.

[SIZE=+1]Joel Pineiro - RHP - Angels ADP: 270[/SIZE]

Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan has a knack for revitalizing careers with his pitch-to-contact approach and Pineiro might just be his masterpiece. The 31-year-old right-hander with a 4.39 career ERA and a 1.34 career WHIP won 15 games last season and posted a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 32 starts. His 60.2 percent groundball rate led all major league pitchers and he allowed just 27 walks in 214 innings for an amazing BB/9 of 1.4. It was a stellar campaign and he was rightfully awarded with a two-year, $16 million contract from the Angels this winter. But can he sustain the success in the American League, without Duncan watching his every delivery? Past experience tells us no, and he doesn't have the strikeout numbers to warrant a flier pick.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Ryan Franklin - RHP - Cardinals ADP: 143[/SIZE]

If you're like me, you probably treat saves like gold. I dig deep to find them and I cherish relievers who rack them up in bunches. As with any obsession, though, it's always important to keep a clear head and think decisions through. Franklin may have tallied 38 saves in 2009 while posting equally impressive ERA (1.92) and WHIP (1.20) marks, but he absolutely imploded near the end of the season and continued the downward spiral into the divisional round of the playoffs. The 36-year-old right-hander had a 7.56 ERA in the month of September and allowed 21 base runners over his final 9 1/3 innings of work. Before last season, he had never finished with an ERA below 3.04 and he is still the proud owner of a 4.07 career ERA. Franklin is a fine value pick if he drops into the fifth or sixth tier of closers, but reaching for him would be silly.

[SIZE=+1]Bengie Molina - C - Giants ADP: 159[/SIZE]

Finding a useful fantasy catcher can be tough, especially in deeper leagues, but it's fairly shocking how high Molina has been selected in some mock drafts this winter. The veteran backstop turns 36 this summer and is likely to lose his job to up-and-comer Buster Posey by midseason, and yet he is being drafted before guys like Chris Iannetta (ADP: 179) and Ryan Doumit (ADP: 205). Perhaps some owners are still under the impression that Molina will remain San Francisco's cleanup hitter despite the offseason additions of Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff. It's not happening. And he's not going to hit 20 home runs again this year. In fact, he'll be lucky to reach 15.

[SIZE=+1]Matt Cain - RHP - Giants ADP: 88[/SIZE]

There comes a point when passing on Cain in a fantasy draft would be foolish, but it's hard to understand the amount of love he is receiving in early mocks this year. The right-hander is coming off the board before far more useful pitchers like Yovani Gallardo (ADP: 97), Josh Beckett (ADP: 89) and even Ubaldo Jimenez (ADP: 109). Cain is a nice, young pitcher with a good deal of potential, and he managed to tally a 14-8 record last year on top of a 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. But he doesn't strike batters out like an elite fantasy hurler should and he wasn't nearly as solid away from AT&T Park in 2009. He's certainly worth grabbing within the third tier of starters but he does not deserve the kind of attention that he's currently enjoying. Tim Lincecum's dominance, sadly, is in no way contagious.

[SIZE=+1]Chris Davis - 1B - Rangers ADP: 148[/SIZE]

Davis, who turns 24 this spring, batted .285/.331/.549 with 17 home runs and 55 RBI in 80 games during his rookie debut in 2008, prompting man crushes in most fantasy realms. He fell back to earth in 2009, however, and wound up with a lousy .238 batting average and .284 on-base percentage after 419 plate appearances. His power potential is attractive and he's definitely worth nabbing in AL-only leagues, but we could pen a laundry list of at least 15 better fantasy first basemen. On top of all that, the Rangers may opt to promote 2008 first-round pick Justin Smoak early this season, and not to ride the pine. Davis shouldn't be trusted with an everyday roster spot in most mixed leagues this year.

Honorable mentions: Austin Jackson (Tigers), Alex Gordon (Royals), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners), Melky Cabrera (Braves), Alex Rios (White Sox), James Shields (Rays), Brandon Inge (Tigers), Miguel Olivo (Rockies), Aroldis Chapman (Reds), Jarrod Washburn (Free Agent), Conor Jackson (Diamondbacks).
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
Trending Up, Trending Down
Pitchers and catchers don't report to spring training for another 22 days and most fantasy drafts won't get going for at least another month, but it's imperative to get a head-start on the competition. Part of that involvess watching as players either trend up or trend down heading into draft day. Overpaying for a hitter or selecting a pitcher too high can mean big trouble. Likewise, letting a high-value athlete fall can result in all sorts of regret come June or July. Enough with the preaching, though. You're here, reading Rotoworld, so you probably already know this stuff.

Below you'll find a group of fantasy baseball's early risers and fallers. For a multitude of different reasons these guys are making noise on draft boards, whether positively or negatively, and I'll attempt to explain why. The trends we're seeing now may or may not continue, but I can guarantee you won't miss a beat if you stay up-to-speed with our player news page.

[Note: ADP stands for Average Draft Position]

One last thing before we get going: I'd like to thank all those who either sent in e-mails or began following me on Twitter this past week. I'll be around all season and will do as much as I can to help navigate us down the wisest fantasy paths. Cue the Robert Frost poem. Or the Tim Tebow speech. Eh, you know what I mean. Something nice and corny.

Editors Note: You can purchase Rotoworld's Draft Guide now. It's chock full of all your draft day needs and is constantly updated by Rotoworld's finest.

[SIZE=+2]Early Risers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Ben Sheets - RHP - Athletics ADP: 302[/SIZE]

It took over a year and an elbow surgery, but Sheets finally landed a free agent contract. The 31-year-old right-hander inked a one-year, $10 million deal with the A's on Tuesday and will slide into an Oakland starting rotation that already includes Justin Duchscherer and youngsters Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, and Trevor Cahill. Suddenly the Athletics have an intimidating rotation mix and Sheets should lead the way. He impressed all onlookers at his short throwing session last week, hitting 92 MPH with his fastball and displaying a nice break on his low-70s curve. We all know Sheets can dominate if he's able to remain healthy and all signs are good thus far. His ADP will rise steadily until spring training begins and will shoot even higher if he throws well during his first few exhibition starts. Get in on the ground floor.

[SIZE=+1]Justin Upton - OF - Diamondbacks ADP: 31[/SIZE]

Oh, to be young and talented. From speed, to a quality glove, to potential 40-homer power, Upton is an absolutely superb athlete and continues to rise on draft boards as owners wrap their heads around his stat line from last season and ponder his upside moving forward. The 22-year-old hit .300/.366/.532 in 2009 with 26 home runs, 30 doubles, seven triples and 86 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also swiped 20 bases on 25 attempts, a high enough percentage that manager A.J. Hinch might let him run a little more freely this year. He had plate discipline issues in '08, and again in '09, but that's the sort of thing we're supposed to see from major league newcomers. Plate discipline in the big leagues often comes with experience. It's simple: the more times you face a pitcher, the better read you have on his pitches. Look for B.J.'s brother to flourish in his second full season.

[SIZE=+1]Johan Santana - LHP - Mets ADP: 42[/SIZE]

Santana was drafted in the second round of most mixed fantasy leagues last year and even cracked the first round in some deeper formats. He performed to expectations in the first half of the 2009 season, posting 10 wins, a 3.10 ERA and 112 strikeouts over his first 18 starts. Things didn't run as smoothly after the All-Star break, however, and he was shut down in August with an elbow issue that eventually required arthroscopic surgery. Nobody likes or trusts arm injuries with pitchers, and there's good reason for pessimism given recent history in the sport. But all reports have been strong concerning Santana's rehab and he promised New York area reporters this week that he will be ready to take the mound on Opening Day. It appears the vow has helped him gain the trust of fantasy owners, because he's shooting steadily up draft boards. And with every exhibition start (he's expected to make five this spring), the left-hander will rise a little more.

[SIZE=+1]Brandon Webb - RHP - Diamondbacks ADP: 139[/SIZE]

Just like Santana, the right-handed Webb is gaining ground on draft boards with each positive report that surfaces about the progress of his throwing shoulder. He made just one start last year before the Diamondbacks shut him down, and it was a six-run drubbing against the Rockies. But he addressed the injury with a debridement procedure last fall and all reports have been positive since. Arizona management felt good enough about the rehab process to pick up his $8.5 million option for 2010 and fantasy owners may want to give Webb a similar amount of trust. Bear in mind for a second that he went 22-7 in 2008 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 strikeouts. Not doing it for you? How about 2007, when the 6-foot-3 righty finished 18-0 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 strikeouts? Webb is a dominant pitcher when healthy, boasting a devastating sinker and changeup combination. He's a risk, sure, but you have to take chances in fantasy baseball and the rewards should be great if he can stay healthy for at least 175 innings.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Josh Hamilton - OF - Rangers ADP: 51[/SIZE]

With Julio Borbon taking over in center field this season, Hamilton has been given the opportunity to better maintain his health at a less-demanding corner outfield position. We can't say definitively whether the move will help, because, well, this is professional athletics and the baseball season can be a grind. But early mock draft participants have clearly caught wind of manager Ron Washington's decision and Hamilton is moving swiftly up draft boards. The 28-year-old former No. 1 overall pick absolutely kills balls when he's not in the trainer's room. He had 10 home runs and 54 RBI last season in just 89 games, including an .853 OPS with runners on base and a .314/.344/.523 batting line with runners in scoring position. The tatted-up Hamilton is an RBI machine, as we've seen in the last three years, and he's now buoyed by a Rangers lineup that includes Vladimir Guerrero. As long as reports continue to stream in praising his rehab, he will continue to gain value. And it is deserved value.

[SIZE=+2]Early Fallers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Joel Zumaya - RHP - Tigers ADP: 335[/SIZE]

Two weeks ago it looked as though Zumaya might finally get a crack at full-time closing duties. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski even hinted at the idea in early December, telling MLB.com's Jason Beck, "He's got enough experience at this time. He's been around long enough. We all know he has good enough stuff. He hasn't pitched the ninth inning on a regular basis by any means, but do I think he has a chance to do it? Yes." Enter Jose Valverde. Detroit signed the fiery Dominican to a two-year, $14 million contract a little over a week ago and even gave him a $9 million option for 2012. Valverde has 167 career saves and a 1.17 career WHIP. He's also a strikeout machine, having racked up 217 punch-outs in his last 190 1/3 innings. In other words, Zumaya probably won't get a whiff of ninth-inning duties for the next three years. Eighth-inning setup men don't often carry fantasy value, especially in mixed formats, and the 25-year-old from Chula Vista, California is no exception.

[SIZE=+1]Carlos Beltran - OF - Mets ADP: 86[/SIZE]

Sometimes you sort of have to feel sorry for the Mets. And other times you just have to laugh. Beltran, 32, underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee in early January and is expected to miss the first month of the 2010 season. Of course, that's not where the story ends. A breakdown in communications between Beltran's agent, Scott Boras, and the Mets' front office created a complete public relations nightmare soon after news broke of the procedure two weeks ago. GM Omar Minaya told the media that the outfielder was not given permission for the surgery, and yet Beltran's agent was handed workman's compensation from the organization days earlier to cover the cost of the procedure. Like I said, a nightmare. With so much shadiness and uncertainty surrounding the operation, it's hard to know when drafting Beltran might be worthwhile. He's tumbling down draft boards because it seems impossible to trust either side, and it's probably worth noting that the Mets have a checkered recent history with projecting accurate recovery times. See: shortstop Jose Reyes.

[SIZE=+1]Dan Uggla - 2B - Marlins ADP: 85[/SIZE]

Uggla carried an ADP of 67 during draft season in 2009 but has fallen nearly 20 points heading into this year and it doesn't appear he's heading north anytime soon. What gives? His quantifiable fantasy stats aren't far off -- 32 homers in '08, 31 in '09 -- and he has even reduced his once-astronomical strikeout rate. The two-bagger has also posted strikingly similar RBI totals (right around 90) during all four of his professional seasons and most fantasy owners are smart enough to know that he's not reliable in the batting average department. Perhaps participants in early mock drafts were turned off by his status as a trade chip this winter. Or maybe they think he will be dealt this spring. Either way, it doesn't seem like a reason to undervalue him. Uggla boasts an excellent array of power numbers at a position where such things are scarce. He's been a lock for 30-plus home runs and close to 100 RBI since arriving in the big leagues in 2006 and he is still just 29 years of age. Draft him with confidence. End the slide.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Joel Hanrahan - RHP - Pirates ADP: 334[/SIZE]

Where do we start with this one? Hanrahan, 28, was given a crack at closing duties for the Nationals last season right out of spring training. He immediately squandered the opportunity, though, allowing eight earned runs and blowing three save chances in his first ten relief appearances. The Nationals stripped him of closing duties in late April and employed a closer-by-committe led by Julian Tavarez and Kip Wells. That, of course, did not last and Hanrahan was given another crack at the ninth-inning gig in June. You can probably guess what happened next. He blew the opportunity again, Mike MacDougal took over for the rest of the year, and Hanrahan was eventually traded to Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, the Pirates flirted with the idea of using Hanrahan in the ninth inning this season, but they wised up and signed former White Sox reliever Octavio Dotel to a one-year, $3.25 million contract last week. He will provide some stability at the back-end of the Bucs' bullpen while Hanrahan, whose stock really couldn't get any lower, is already battling elbow tightness.

[SIZE=+1]Brett Anderson - LHP - Athletics ADP: 230[/SIZE]

Anderson, by all accounts, should be rated among the top three or four tiers of young fantasy starters this season. He had an exceptional rookie campaign, collecting 11 wins while compiling a 1.28 WHIP and a 150/45 K/BB ratio in 175 1/3 innings. He pitches in a ballpark that tends to squash power numbers and he finished the year as strong as any elite hurler in the game, with a 2.28 ERA in September and a quality season-ending outing in October. Why, then, is he falling to rounds 19 (in 12-team formats) and 23 (in 10-team formats)? Maybe we should fault SI.com's Tom Verducci, who did some thorough research concerning the impact of large innings totals on young pitchers back in February, 2008. Verducci found that pitchers below the age of 25 who make year-to-year inning leaps of 30 or more will feel the effects of what he calls an "abusive increase." Anderson, 21, tossed 175-plus frames last year. In 2008, while at Triple-A Sacramento, he tallied just 105. The talented young southpaw might be in real trouble
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
Trending Up, Trending Down
Pitchers and catchers don't report to spring training for another 22 days and most fantasy drafts won't get going for at least another month, but it's imperative to get a head-start on the competition. Part of that involvess watching as players either trend up or trend down heading into draft day. Overpaying for a hitter or selecting a pitcher too high can mean big trouble. Likewise, letting a high-value athlete fall can result in all sorts of regret come June or July. Enough with the preaching, though. You're here, reading Rotoworld, so you probably already know this stuff.

Below you'll find a group of fantasy baseball's early risers and fallers. For a multitude of different reasons these guys are making noise on draft boards, whether positively or negatively, and I'll attempt to explain why. The trends we're seeing now may or may not continue, but I can guarantee you won't miss a beat if you stay up-to-speed with our player news page.

[Note: ADP stands for Average Draft Position]

One last thing before we get going: I'd like to thank all those who either sent in e-mails or began following me on Twitter this past week. I'll be around all season and will do as much as I can to help navigate us down the wisest fantasy paths. Cue the Robert Frost poem. Or the Tim Tebow speech. Eh, you know what I mean. Something nice and corny.

Editors Note: You can purchase Rotoworld's Draft Guide now. It's chock full of all your draft day needs and is constantly updated by Rotoworld's finest.

[SIZE=+2]Early Risers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Ben Sheets - RHP - Athletics ADP: 302[/SIZE]

It took over a year and an elbow surgery, but Sheets finally landed a free agent contract. The 31-year-old right-hander inked a one-year, $10 million deal with the A's on Tuesday and will slide into an Oakland starting rotation that already includes Justin Duchscherer and youngsters Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, and Trevor Cahill. Suddenly the Athletics have an intimidating rotation mix and Sheets should lead the way. He impressed all onlookers at his short throwing session last week, hitting 92 MPH with his fastball and displaying a nice break on his low-70s curve. We all know Sheets can dominate if he's able to remain healthy and all signs are good thus far. His ADP will rise steadily until spring training begins and will shoot even higher if he throws well during his first few exhibition starts. Get in on the ground floor.

[SIZE=+1]Justin Upton - OF - Diamondbacks ADP: 31[/SIZE]

Oh, to be young and talented. From speed, to a quality glove, to potential 40-homer power, Upton is an absolutely superb athlete and continues to rise on draft boards as owners wrap their heads around his stat line from last season and ponder his upside moving forward. The 22-year-old hit .300/.366/.532 in 2009 with 26 home runs, 30 doubles, seven triples and 86 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also swiped 20 bases on 25 attempts, a high enough percentage that manager A.J. Hinch might let him run a little more freely this year. He had plate discipline issues in '08, and again in '09, but that's the sort of thing we're supposed to see from major league newcomers. Plate discipline in the big leagues often comes with experience. It's simple: the more times you face a pitcher, the better read you have on his pitches. Look for B.J.'s brother to flourish in his second full season.

[SIZE=+1]Johan Santana - LHP - Mets ADP: 42[/SIZE]

Santana was drafted in the second round of most mixed fantasy leagues last year and even cracked the first round in some deeper formats. He performed to expectations in the first half of the 2009 season, posting 10 wins, a 3.10 ERA and 112 strikeouts over his first 18 starts. Things didn't run as smoothly after the All-Star break, however, and he was shut down in August with an elbow issue that eventually required arthroscopic surgery. Nobody likes or trusts arm injuries with pitchers, and there's good reason for pessimism given recent history in the sport. But all reports have been strong concerning Santana's rehab and he promised New York area reporters this week that he will be ready to take the mound on Opening Day. It appears the vow has helped him gain the trust of fantasy owners, because he's shooting steadily up draft boards. And with every exhibition start (he's expected to make five this spring), the left-hander will rise a little more.

[SIZE=+1]Brandon Webb - RHP - Diamondbacks ADP: 139[/SIZE]

Just like Santana, the right-handed Webb is gaining ground on draft boards with each positive report that surfaces about the progress of his throwing shoulder. He made just one start last year before the Diamondbacks shut him down, and it was a six-run drubbing against the Rockies. But he addressed the injury with a debridement procedure last fall and all reports have been positive since. Arizona management felt good enough about the rehab process to pick up his $8.5 million option for 2010 and fantasy owners may want to give Webb a similar amount of trust. Bear in mind for a second that he went 22-7 in 2008 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 strikeouts. Not doing it for you? How about 2007, when the 6-foot-3 righty finished 18-0 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 strikeouts? Webb is a dominant pitcher when healthy, boasting a devastating sinker and changeup combination. He's a risk, sure, but you have to take chances in fantasy baseball and the rewards should be great if he can stay healthy for at least 175 innings.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Josh Hamilton - OF - Rangers ADP: 51[/SIZE]

With Julio Borbon taking over in center field this season, Hamilton has been given the opportunity to better maintain his health at a less-demanding corner outfield position. We can't say definitively whether the move will help, because, well, this is professional athletics and the baseball season can be a grind. But early mock draft participants have clearly caught wind of manager Ron Washington's decision and Hamilton is moving swiftly up draft boards. The 28-year-old former No. 1 overall pick absolutely kills balls when he's not in the trainer's room. He had 10 home runs and 54 RBI last season in just 89 games, including an .853 OPS with runners on base and a .314/.344/.523 batting line with runners in scoring position. The tatted-up Hamilton is an RBI machine, as we've seen in the last three years, and he's now buoyed by a Rangers lineup that includes Vladimir Guerrero. As long as reports continue to stream in praising his rehab, he will continue to gain value. And it is deserved value.

[SIZE=+2]Early Fallers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Joel Zumaya - RHP - Tigers ADP: 335[/SIZE]

Two weeks ago it looked as though Zumaya might finally get a crack at full-time closing duties. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski even hinted at the idea in early December, telling MLB.com's Jason Beck, "He's got enough experience at this time. He's been around long enough. We all know he has good enough stuff. He hasn't pitched the ninth inning on a regular basis by any means, but do I think he has a chance to do it? Yes." Enter Jose Valverde. Detroit signed the fiery Dominican to a two-year, $14 million contract a little over a week ago and even gave him a $9 million option for 2012. Valverde has 167 career saves and a 1.17 career WHIP. He's also a strikeout machine, having racked up 217 punch-outs in his last 190 1/3 innings. In other words, Zumaya probably won't get a whiff of ninth-inning duties for the next three years. Eighth-inning setup men don't often carry fantasy value, especially in mixed formats, and the 25-year-old from Chula Vista, California is no exception.

[SIZE=+1]Carlos Beltran - OF - Mets ADP: 86[/SIZE]

Sometimes you sort of have to feel sorry for the Mets. And other times you just have to laugh. Beltran, 32, underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee in early January and is expected to miss the first month of the 2010 season. Of course, that's not where the story ends. A breakdown in communications between Beltran's agent, Scott Boras, and the Mets' front office created a complete public relations nightmare soon after news broke of the procedure two weeks ago. GM Omar Minaya told the media that the outfielder was not given permission for the surgery, and yet Beltran's agent was handed workman's compensation from the organization days earlier to cover the cost of the procedure. Like I said, a nightmare. With so much shadiness and uncertainty surrounding the operation, it's hard to know when drafting Beltran might be worthwhile. He's tumbling down draft boards because it seems impossible to trust either side, and it's probably worth noting that the Mets have a checkered recent history with projecting accurate recovery times. See: shortstop Jose Reyes.

[SIZE=+1]Dan Uggla - 2B - Marlins ADP: 85[/SIZE]

Uggla carried an ADP of 67 during draft season in 2009 but has fallen nearly 20 points heading into this year and it doesn't appear he's heading north anytime soon. What gives? His quantifiable fantasy stats aren't far off -- 32 homers in '08, 31 in '09 -- and he has even reduced his once-astronomical strikeout rate. The two-bagger has also posted strikingly similar RBI totals (right around 90) during all four of his professional seasons and most fantasy owners are smart enough to know that he's not reliable in the batting average department. Perhaps participants in early mock drafts were turned off by his status as a trade chip this winter. Or maybe they think he will be dealt this spring. Either way, it doesn't seem like a reason to undervalue him. Uggla boasts an excellent array of power numbers at a position where such things are scarce. He's been a lock for 30-plus home runs and close to 100 RBI since arriving in the big leagues in 2006 and he is still just 29 years of age. Draft him with confidence. End the slide.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Joel Hanrahan - RHP - Pirates ADP: 334[/SIZE]

Where do we start with this one? Hanrahan, 28, was given a crack at closing duties for the Nationals last season right out of spring training. He immediately squandered the opportunity, though, allowing eight earned runs and blowing three save chances in his first ten relief appearances. The Nationals stripped him of closing duties in late April and employed a closer-by-committe led by Julian Tavarez and Kip Wells. That, of course, did not last and Hanrahan was given another crack at the ninth-inning gig in June. You can probably guess what happened next. He blew the opportunity again, Mike MacDougal took over for the rest of the year, and Hanrahan was eventually traded to Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, the Pirates flirted with the idea of using Hanrahan in the ninth inning this season, but they wised up and signed former White Sox reliever Octavio Dotel to a one-year, $3.25 million contract last week. He will provide some stability at the back-end of the Bucs' bullpen while Hanrahan, whose stock really couldn't get any lower, is already battling elbow tightness.

[SIZE=+1]Brett Anderson - LHP - Athletics ADP: 230[/SIZE]

Anderson, by all accounts, should be rated among the top three or four tiers of young fantasy starters this season. He had an exceptional rookie campaign, collecting 11 wins while compiling a 1.28 WHIP and a 150/45 K/BB ratio in 175 1/3 innings. He pitches in a ballpark that tends to squash power numbers and he finished the year as strong as any elite hurler in the game, with a 2.28 ERA in September and a quality season-ending outing in October. Why, then, is he falling to rounds 19 (in 12-team formats) and 23 (in 10-team formats)? Maybe we should fault SI.com's Tom Verducci, who did some thorough research concerning the impact of large innings totals on young pitchers back in February, 2008. Verducci found that pitchers below the age of 25 who make year-to-year inning leaps of 30 or more will feel the effects of what he calls an "abusive increase." Anderson, 21, tossed 175-plus frames last year. In 2008, while at Triple-A Sacramento, he tallied just 105. The talented young southpaw might be in real trouble.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
Liriano Dominates the DWL
Earlier this month Ron Gardenhire passed along a report he received from the Dominican Republic saying that Francisco Liriano was "throwing the living fire out of the ball" with his fastball around 92-94 miles per hour and a "filthy" slider.

Two winters ago Gardenhire passed along similar reports of Liriano "letting it fly" at 93-96 miles per hour "free and easy" while coming back from Tommy John surgery, yet he arrived at spring training throwing in the high-80s and was basically a mess.

So there were good reasons to be skeptical about third-hand reports of Liriano's velocity in winter ball this time around, particularly after he went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in 136.2 innings last season. However, my skepticism has faded because his numbers in the Dominican Republic are insanely good and last night he dominated while starting the final game of the league's World Series.

(And as an added bonus the game was broadcast online by ESPN, so those third-hand reports are no longer really needed.)

First let's talk about the stats, which prior to last night included a 0.82 ERA and 54-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43.2 innings. Whether his fastball was 85 or 95 those numbers are impossible to ignore. And it turns out last night showed that reports about his velocity were pretty accurate (assuming the radar gun used was based somewhat in reality).

He tossed five innings of one-hit, shutout ball while racking up 10 strikeouts, was regularly clocked at 93-95 mph, and unleashed some wicked high-80s sliders. To say that Liriano looked like the pre-surgery phenom who was baseball's best pitcher in 2006 would be hyperbole, but for one night at least he certainly looked closer to that guy than the one who averaged under 91 mph with his fastball for the past two seasons and constantly struggled just to throw strikes.

Ultimately the real test will come when he faces MLB lineups, but he faced plenty of major leaguers in the DWL and his video game-like stats match the glowing reports. His performance this winter has definitely wiped away lots of that skepticism, yet it's worth noting that Liriano isn't even guaranteed a spot in the Twins' rotation going into spring training. He's set to battle Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, and Jeff Manship for the fifth-starter job, with a relief role waiting if he falters.

Because of that uncertainty Liriano's current projection in Rotoworld's newly available Draft Guide calls for just 143 innings, but a predicted 3.90 ERA, 136/56 K/BB ratio, and 1.32 WHIP are all way better than 2009 and would make him a top-30 starter in AL-only leagues. Plus, my guess is that we'll soon be upgrading his projection following the DWL showing (which is one of the advantages an online Draft Guide holds over a print version).

Liriano's secondary numbers last season weren't nearly as bad as his 5.80 ERA, which was almost 30 percent worse than his decent 4.55 xFIP. And that was with Liriano struggling to command his fastball at 88-92 mph, so if putting some more time between his elbow and the operating table has led to last night's performance being somewhat sustainable--and certainly his numbers in nine previous winter-league starts say it was no fluke--he may have breakout potential a year later than everyone expected.
 

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2010 First Base Overview
Moving on to first base in the overview column this week.

First base Overview

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) - Mock Draft Central's figures have Cabrera as the fifth first baseman off the board in recent mixed drafts, but I have him second at the position, barely ahead of Mark Teixeira. In my book, Cabrera's advantage in average should just slightly outweigh the run and RBI boost that Teixeira gets from hitting third for the Yankees. Maybe I'll change my mind if the Tigers really opt to commit to Austin Jackson in the leadoff spot, but Cabrera still wouldn't drop any further than third. At 27, he's about due for his first 40-homer season, and he's hit .320 or better four of the last five years. The alcohol issues aren't currently a source of concern, not from a fantasy perspective anyway.

Kendry Morales (Angels) - I figured Morales would enter this year in the overrated category, but he's not going as high as expected in drafts. While he doesn't measure up to the top five first basemen, all of whom will go in the first two rounds of mixed-league drafts, I do think he's the best of the rest, at least until the day Adrian Gonzalez is traded. My guess is that he'll match his .306 average from last season, and while I've projected his homer total to drop from 34 to 29, I think he'll clear 100 RBI again because he'll probably spend the year hitting fourth and fifth. That he doesn't walk a lot just gives him more chances to pick up hits and RBI.

Adam LaRoche (Diamondbacks) - He certainly didn't get the contract he wanted, but LaRoche landed in about as an ideal of a situation as possible in Arizona. He's stayed in the league in which he's comfortable, he's in an excellent ballpark for hitters and he's probably going to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup. The possibility of a career year seems high. I at least expect him to best his previous career high of 90 RBI. He'll make for a fine CI option in mixed leagues.

Overrated

Prince Fielder (Brewers) - I have Fielder fifth among the big five at first base, and I see him as a late second-round pick in mixed leagues. The others just all do something a little better than he does. Cabrera should hit for a higher average, Teixeira should score more runs and Ryan Howard will hit more homers. Fielder could overcome it all by driving in 141 runs again, but that figure stands out as something of a fluke, given that the Brewers don't get great OBPs out of the first and second spots in the order and Ryan Braun drives in a bunch of runs himself batting third. I do have Fielder the highest in the group when it comes to OPS, but that doesn't mean a whole lot here.

Joey Votto (Reds) - For the second straight year, I'm ranking Votto ninth among first basemen. Particularly given the uptick in his strikeout rate, he seems a lot more likely to match his 2008 line (.297/.368/.506) than the one he posted in 131 games last year (.322/.414/.567), and since the Reds might not have much of an offense around him, his run and RBI numbers could lag behind. I have the rest of the top 10 first basemen averaging 100 runs scored and 115 RBI, but I project Votto at just 90 and 92, respectively. It takes the seven steals just to keep him ahead of Lance Berkman and Billy Butler in the rankings.

Lance Berkman (Astros) - Berkman could bounce back some after coming in at .274-25-80 last year, but it's hardly a given, considering that he's entering his age-34 season. Plus, even if he does rebound all of the way to .300 with 30 homers, it probably won't result in big run and RBI numbers. Berkman walks a ton, which always hurts him when it comes to RBI, and he never scores as many runs as it seems he should with his lofty OBPs. It's time to start thinking of him as more of a complimentary player than an early-round pick.

Sleepers

James Loney (Dodgers) - I think I'm about as frustrated with Loney's lack of development as anyone, and if the Dodgers had money to play around with, I'd support the idea of using him in a trade and upgrading at first base. Loney, though, will be back in an everyday role and hit somewhere in the middle of the lineup. He's driven in 90 runs in back-to-back years even though he slugged .434 in 2008 and .399 last season. He's just turning 26 in May, and it's worth remembering that he hit .331 with 15 homers in 344 at-bats as a 23-year-old in 2007. He doesn't need to improve both his average and power to become a quality fantasy first baseman; either would do. My guess is that he gets back over .300 this season.

Daric Barton (Athletics) - Barton has been tagged a disappointment, but his struggles came in his age-22 season in 2008. He was brilliant in a 72-at-bat intro to the majors in 2007, and he finished nicely after getting a chance to reclaim a starting job last year, hitting .287/.386/.434 in 143 at-bats down the stretch. Barton is only so much of a breakout candidate, given that he has limited power and he'll probably hit low in a lineup that figures to be below average again. Still, he should offer solid production for someone who probably won't go for more than a few dollars in AL-only auctions. I expect a .270-.280 average and 12-15 homers.

Logan Morrison (Marlins) - The Marlins are leaning towards leaving Jorge Cantu at third base and letting Morrison and Gaby Sanchez battle it out for the first base job in spring training. Given that Sanchez has done quite a bit more to earn his opportunity, Morrison will have to be the clearly superior player in order to get the nod. But it wouldn't come as much of a surprise if it works out that way. The 22-year-old offers more in the way of on-base skills and defense than Sanchez. The .277-8-47 line he put up in 278 at-bats in Double-A last year won't wow anyone, but he has a great idea of what he's doing at the plate and he could be a contributor this year, even if he's not going to be a candidate to hit 20 homers until 2011 or 2012.

Other thoughts

- Chris Davis may be the biggest wild card. The Rangers seem committed to him, given that they haven't brought in a legitimate alternative at first base. However, they do have top prospect Justin Smoak, who could be an option come June or July. I have Davis projected at .256-29-87 in 531 at-bats, which places him 19th at the position.
 

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