Yesterday 0 2 0 -4.00 Units
Last 30 Days 30 38 1 +1.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 156 191 3 +7.62 Units
San Francisco –1.02 over ATLANTA
The Giants lost yesterday but they faced one of the best in the game in Ubaldo Jiminez and they’re not cooled off just yet. They’ve still won 14 of its last 18 road games and have the majors best record over the past month. Tim Lincecum has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts and while he’s had some blemishes this year, he’s still displaying elite skills. He’s struck out 152 batters in 145 frames and in his last two starts he’s struck out 14 and walked three. On the road, Lincecum is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and in his only start vs the Braves this year he went seven full and allowed five hits, one run, struck out 10 and walked one. Jair Jurrjens "Tale of Two Seasons" continues. Since returning from the strained hamstring and weakened shoulder that put him on the DL in early May, Jurrjens has been a different player. The question is which player can we count on for the remainder of the season? Jurrjens is coming off two consecutive dominating starts, but when we look under the surface, there are some bright spots and some reasons for concern. Jurrjens ERA is 2.90 since returning from the DL, but the xERA says Jurrjens ERA should be closer to 4.00 than it is to 3.00. We need to keep our eye on Jurrjens control, which is heading in the wrong direction when compared to historical levels. The good news is Jurrjens is holding steady, but he’ll never be a big strikeout pitcher and he surely does not have an edge over Lincecum. Neither does the Braves bullpen, offense or current form. Play: San Francisco –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
DETROIT –1½ +1.43 over Chicago
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. The South Side has been on a roll for a while now, but they’re a far different offensive team away from their HR-friendly home park. Less than one-third of their year-to-date HR (38 of 118 total) has come on the road, where the White Sox 3.83 runs per game is a full run and a half below their home mark. A plus is that Comerica Park has been coughing HR to RHB at an 18% inflation rate, and Chicago is a predominantly a RHH lineup. The minus is that they’re scheduled to face RH SPs for the entire series and a pitching staff that excels at home. Enter Max Scherzer. This guy is the straight goods and has been near unhittable at home. In fact, over his last four home starts he’s allowed a combined three runs and that includes a seven-inning shutout over Texas. Scherzer has been trending strong in the right direction for weeks and has a great opportunity to dominate again. Freddy Garcia is 10-4, which is one of the more misleading W/L records in the league. He has a BAA of .288, an ERA of 4.73 and on the road his BAA is .308 and his ERA is 5.73. He’s been stung in three straight starts to the tune of 24 hits in 13.1 frames and an ERA of 7.43. The Tigers are getting healthy again real quick. Brandon Inge is back, Miguel Cabrera is back, Johnny Damon is back and the addition of Jhonny Peralta was a good one. Pitching mismatch + home field equals a big win for the home side. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.43 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 30 38 1 +1.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 156 191 3 +7.62 Units
San Francisco –1.02 over ATLANTA
The Giants lost yesterday but they faced one of the best in the game in Ubaldo Jiminez and they’re not cooled off just yet. They’ve still won 14 of its last 18 road games and have the majors best record over the past month. Tim Lincecum has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts and while he’s had some blemishes this year, he’s still displaying elite skills. He’s struck out 152 batters in 145 frames and in his last two starts he’s struck out 14 and walked three. On the road, Lincecum is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and in his only start vs the Braves this year he went seven full and allowed five hits, one run, struck out 10 and walked one. Jair Jurrjens "Tale of Two Seasons" continues. Since returning from the strained hamstring and weakened shoulder that put him on the DL in early May, Jurrjens has been a different player. The question is which player can we count on for the remainder of the season? Jurrjens is coming off two consecutive dominating starts, but when we look under the surface, there are some bright spots and some reasons for concern. Jurrjens ERA is 2.90 since returning from the DL, but the xERA says Jurrjens ERA should be closer to 4.00 than it is to 3.00. We need to keep our eye on Jurrjens control, which is heading in the wrong direction when compared to historical levels. The good news is Jurrjens is holding steady, but he’ll never be a big strikeout pitcher and he surely does not have an edge over Lincecum. Neither does the Braves bullpen, offense or current form. Play: San Francisco –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
DETROIT –1½ +1.43 over Chicago
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. The South Side has been on a roll for a while now, but they’re a far different offensive team away from their HR-friendly home park. Less than one-third of their year-to-date HR (38 of 118 total) has come on the road, where the White Sox 3.83 runs per game is a full run and a half below their home mark. A plus is that Comerica Park has been coughing HR to RHB at an 18% inflation rate, and Chicago is a predominantly a RHH lineup. The minus is that they’re scheduled to face RH SPs for the entire series and a pitching staff that excels at home. Enter Max Scherzer. This guy is the straight goods and has been near unhittable at home. In fact, over his last four home starts he’s allowed a combined three runs and that includes a seven-inning shutout over Texas. Scherzer has been trending strong in the right direction for weeks and has a great opportunity to dominate again. Freddy Garcia is 10-4, which is one of the more misleading W/L records in the league. He has a BAA of .288, an ERA of 4.73 and on the road his BAA is .308 and his ERA is 5.73. He’s been stung in three straight starts to the tune of 24 hits in 13.1 frames and an ERA of 7.43. The Tigers are getting healthy again real quick. Brandon Inge is back, Miguel Cabrera is back, Johnny Damon is back and the addition of Jhonny Peralta was a good one. Pitching mismatch + home field equals a big win for the home side. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.43 (Risking 2 units).
