Yesterday 1 1 0 -4.04 Units
Last 30 Days 30 37 1 -1.12 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 157 192 3 +3.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
ARIZONA +1.01 over San Diego (1st 5 innings)
This is such a good spot for the D-Backs, or more notably, such a vulnerable spot for the Padres. You see, the Padres just completed seven of its last 10 games against the Dodgers and capped it off with a 5-0 win last night. Now they have back-to-back series with these Snakes and the Pirates on deck and we could definitely catch them flat-footed for game one of this series. Jon Garland will pitch at an extremely friendly hitter’s park here and it’s at venues like this that Garland really gets exposed. Garland is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last five games away from home and he’s also 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA as a visitor at Chase Field. Garland, who made 27 starts for Arizona last season, is 4-7 with a 5.72 ERA in 16 total games at the Diamondbacks’ home ballpark. Padres' General Manager Jed Hoyer knew that "The Spacious Confines" of Petco Park (Ballpark Tendencies: -24% runs, -39% LHB HR, -14% RHB HR) would suit Jon Garland's game, but even a big field can't hide deficiencies in a pitcher's arsenal for too long. Garland's xERA (4.41) has warned us all year that this was not a sub 3.00 pitcher. In June (5.28 ERA) and July (5.02 ERA), Garland's luck ran out when it comes to strand % and his ERA has skyrocketed. Where will it stop? Once a strong point, Garland's diminishing control is a warning flag that should not be ignored. The BPV says it all (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). This is a pedestrian skill set that is not likely to improve over the course of the season but is very likely to get worse. Daniel Hudson tossed a beauty on Sunday in his debut with Arizona. Prior to that outing he had a 6.32 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 16 IP with the White Sox. A 35% hit% deserved some of the blame, but his real problem was poor command due to horrible control. Hudson flashed his upside at AAA Charlotte this year, posting a 108/31 K/BB in 93 IP. At age 23, he'll remain a work-in-progress, but as a young hurler in the NL West, his learning curve won't be as steep as it might have been with the South Side. Fact is, Hudson has solid skills, as his 20 hits and 18 K’s in 23 frames this year will attest to. However, this one is all about playing against that imposter Jon Garland and thus with San Diego having a huge edge in the pens, we’ll play this one in five. Play: San Diego in the first five innings +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.17 over MILWAUKEE
This is a pitching rematch from just five days ago in Houston in which Wandy Rodriguez beat Dave Bush 6-0. Bush went five innings and allowed 10 hits and all six runs while Rodriguez went a full eight innings, allowed five hits, zero runs and struck out nine. Overall Rodriguez is 9-11 with a 4.49 ERA but do not be deceived by his high ERA. He got off to a horrible start but has since turned the corner and has been as good as anyone in the majors over the past five weeks. Over that stretch he’s faced the Brewers twice and they can’t be feeling too good about facing him after scoring just one run in 15 frames while fanning 15 times. Over his last seven starts, Rodriguez has allowed one runs or less five times. This guy has found his groove big time and there’s no reason to believe it’ll end here. He’s feeling it. Also note that the Astros are playing great ball and have one of the best records in the majors since mid-June. Bush offers up zero value in this spot. He’s hit and miss and he’s always a big risk to miss. He’s been smacked around to the tune of 25 hits and 19 runs over his last 15 IP and what we have here is a very average pitcher favored over an elite one. Big overlay. Play: Houston +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
NY YANKEES –1½ +1.44 over Boston
On paper these are the top two offensive clubs in the American League but Boston is banged up and has really been merely league-average since the break. Look for Yankee runners (Gardner, Jeter, Granderson) to be on the move -- Boston has allowed a league-high 107 stolen bases. The Yanks have won 5-of-8 against the Red Sox thus far in 2010 and have scored 7½ RPG in doing so and this is the series that they get extra juiced up for. Clay Buchholz has plenty of long-term upside. But his current sub-3.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are flukes. An elevated 79% strand rate and low 6% HR/F have kept his surface stats better than they should be. After a strong April (79 BPV), his skills show a sharp decline in May and June (22 BPV, 35 BPV). In 20 career innings vs the Yanks, Bucholtz is 0-2 (14 walks 9 K’s) with a 6.53 ERA. In one game earlier this year against NYY, Buchholtz went five frames and was torched for nine runs. Javier Vasquez is definitely risky but against this banged up unit and given his experience he could really take his game up a notch and thrive in this start. Red Sox are in trouble and this series could be the proverbial nail in its coffin. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.44 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 30 37 1 -1.12 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 157 192 3 +3.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
ARIZONA +1.01 over San Diego (1st 5 innings)
This is such a good spot for the D-Backs, or more notably, such a vulnerable spot for the Padres. You see, the Padres just completed seven of its last 10 games against the Dodgers and capped it off with a 5-0 win last night. Now they have back-to-back series with these Snakes and the Pirates on deck and we could definitely catch them flat-footed for game one of this series. Jon Garland will pitch at an extremely friendly hitter’s park here and it’s at venues like this that Garland really gets exposed. Garland is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last five games away from home and he’s also 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA as a visitor at Chase Field. Garland, who made 27 starts for Arizona last season, is 4-7 with a 5.72 ERA in 16 total games at the Diamondbacks’ home ballpark. Padres' General Manager Jed Hoyer knew that "The Spacious Confines" of Petco Park (Ballpark Tendencies: -24% runs, -39% LHB HR, -14% RHB HR) would suit Jon Garland's game, but even a big field can't hide deficiencies in a pitcher's arsenal for too long. Garland's xERA (4.41) has warned us all year that this was not a sub 3.00 pitcher. In June (5.28 ERA) and July (5.02 ERA), Garland's luck ran out when it comes to strand % and his ERA has skyrocketed. Where will it stop? Once a strong point, Garland's diminishing control is a warning flag that should not be ignored. The BPV says it all (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). This is a pedestrian skill set that is not likely to improve over the course of the season but is very likely to get worse. Daniel Hudson tossed a beauty on Sunday in his debut with Arizona. Prior to that outing he had a 6.32 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 16 IP with the White Sox. A 35% hit% deserved some of the blame, but his real problem was poor command due to horrible control. Hudson flashed his upside at AAA Charlotte this year, posting a 108/31 K/BB in 93 IP. At age 23, he'll remain a work-in-progress, but as a young hurler in the NL West, his learning curve won't be as steep as it might have been with the South Side. Fact is, Hudson has solid skills, as his 20 hits and 18 K’s in 23 frames this year will attest to. However, this one is all about playing against that imposter Jon Garland and thus with San Diego having a huge edge in the pens, we’ll play this one in five. Play: San Diego in the first five innings +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.17 over MILWAUKEE
This is a pitching rematch from just five days ago in Houston in which Wandy Rodriguez beat Dave Bush 6-0. Bush went five innings and allowed 10 hits and all six runs while Rodriguez went a full eight innings, allowed five hits, zero runs and struck out nine. Overall Rodriguez is 9-11 with a 4.49 ERA but do not be deceived by his high ERA. He got off to a horrible start but has since turned the corner and has been as good as anyone in the majors over the past five weeks. Over that stretch he’s faced the Brewers twice and they can’t be feeling too good about facing him after scoring just one run in 15 frames while fanning 15 times. Over his last seven starts, Rodriguez has allowed one runs or less five times. This guy has found his groove big time and there’s no reason to believe it’ll end here. He’s feeling it. Also note that the Astros are playing great ball and have one of the best records in the majors since mid-June. Bush offers up zero value in this spot. He’s hit and miss and he’s always a big risk to miss. He’s been smacked around to the tune of 25 hits and 19 runs over his last 15 IP and what we have here is a very average pitcher favored over an elite one. Big overlay. Play: Houston +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
NY YANKEES –1½ +1.44 over Boston
On paper these are the top two offensive clubs in the American League but Boston is banged up and has really been merely league-average since the break. Look for Yankee runners (Gardner, Jeter, Granderson) to be on the move -- Boston has allowed a league-high 107 stolen bases. The Yanks have won 5-of-8 against the Red Sox thus far in 2010 and have scored 7½ RPG in doing so and this is the series that they get extra juiced up for. Clay Buchholz has plenty of long-term upside. But his current sub-3.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are flukes. An elevated 79% strand rate and low 6% HR/F have kept his surface stats better than they should be. After a strong April (79 BPV), his skills show a sharp decline in May and June (22 BPV, 35 BPV). In 20 career innings vs the Yanks, Bucholtz is 0-2 (14 walks 9 K’s) with a 6.53 ERA. In one game earlier this year against NYY, Buchholtz went five frames and was torched for nine runs. Javier Vasquez is definitely risky but against this banged up unit and given his experience he could really take his game up a notch and thrive in this start. Red Sox are in trouble and this series could be the proverbial nail in its coffin. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.44 (Risking 2 units).
