MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Week 19 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis) 8-2 last two days!

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MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 66-60 (+145.15 Units)



Monday, August 9


Boston Red Sox ML -113 (10 Units)

This is a big one for the Red Sox because not only do they have Tampa Bay right where they want and have yet to take advantage of it, but they now have the red hot Toronto Blue Jays on deck in another road series and they know beating the Jays has been next to impossible lately. Toronto is coming off series wins over the New York Yankees and the Rays going 5-1 in those six games and another loss to the Yankees could spell the end of their season. So this is a big one. We have an interesting pitching matchup today with Jon Lester going for the Sox and Philip Hughes will go for the Yankees even though he was not scheduled until sometime on Sunday when AJ Burnett was scratched. I can't say I'm a fan of Lester in day time starts where his stats are nothing like his night time starts but I do find comfort in the fact that Hughes has a 4.21 ERA in his six day time starts in 2010. Having said that, the Yankees are 6-0 when Hughes makes a day time start and betting on the Red Sox here is like playing with fire but I am taking the risk. Boston has lost four straight with Lester on the mound and something has to give because he hasn't pitched all that poorly. The cards are all lined up for the Yankees to win this game because they are 10-2 when Hughes starts at home this season and 6-0 when he pitches during the day. Having said that, he was rocked for 5 ER's in a home start against these Red Sox back in May and has allowed 16 ER's in four career starts against them (8 ER's in two career home starts). Lester on the other hand has been a Yankee killer. In his last 10 starts against the Yankees, 7 of them have been quality starts and seven times he has recorded 7 or more strikeouts. If there is one pitcher that can pitch this team out of a funk it's Lester because the Red Sox have won 42 of his last 56 starts and having lost four straight it's quite unimaginable that they lost a fifth. I know Hughes and the Yankees have been one of the combos in baseball this season but I am taking a shot in the dark and thinking the Red Sox get Lester that elusive slump busting win.

Trend of the Game: Boston is 42-14 in Jon Lester's last 56 starts.


Boston 5, NY Yankees 4






Baltimore Orioles ML +129 (10 Units)

This is it. Are the Orioles the real deal with new manager Buck Showalter or were the last five games just a fluke? I don't know that this game is going to tell the entire story but we should have a good idea once this is all said and done. Showalter won his first four games as Manager of the Orioles until a close 4-2 loss on Saturday but the Orioles were right back on track on Sunday beating the White Sox 4-3 and already guaranteeing themselves at least a series tie. Not bad for one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball this season. I was looking at some pitching stats from the last week or so and believe it or not the Oriole starting staff, who have an ERA of 5.37 as a unit in 2010, have been the best in baseball over that span of seven days. Incredible really. Brian Matusz the lefty is one of the only guys who has struggled during that time span yet the Orioles are 2-1 in his last three starts despite his poor numbers. He is getting 5.7 runs of support per start in those three starts and believe me Edwin Jackson, who is on the mound for the White Sox, is not that much better having now allowed 10 ER's and 27 hits in his last three starts (his only start as a White Sox was somewhat of a gem). Jackson has been to Baltimore three times in his career and has allowed 12 ER's in three starts including 19 hits in those three starts combined. Matusz is 1-7 at home this season and the Orioles are 2-9 in his 11 home starts in 2010 but he has shown signs of brilliance at times this season and is coming off a 1 ER performance against the Angels at home last week. He also pitched well against the Red Sox in Boston a few weeks ago, against the A's at home back in late June and in San Diego in June as well. He has allowed only 1 Home Run his last three starts and has really learned to control some of his pitches and adjust to his opponents. Chicago has won only 3 of their last 10 games versus a left handed starter and they are 5-11 in their last 16 versus AL East opponents. Baltimore is now 5-1 under Buck Showalter, they are 4-1 in Brian Matusz's last five starts on four days rest and they are now 5-2 in their last seven home games against Baltimore. I also noticed a stat that the Home Team is 14-2 in home plate umpire Chris Guccione's last 16 games played on a Monday. Not sure what it means but I'm a fan of the Late Night Showalter.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 14-2 in Home Plate Umpire Chris Guccione's last 16 Monday games.


Baltimore 4, White Sox 2






Cincinnati Reds ML +123 (10 Units)

This is some incredible stuff from the guys in Vegas considering the way the Reds are playing as of late and considering the importance of this game. Cincinnati is only 2.0 games ahead of the Cardinals coming into this series, a series that could either make or break both of these teams in the long run when one of them misses out on the post-season by only one game or two or even less. So who wants this more? The Reds are coming off a three game road series sweep of the reeling Chicago Cubs and they are now 7-1 in their last eight games overall. The Cardinals might be a bit worn out because they had one heck of a long Sunday afternoon waiting and waiting for their game in Florida to start but it never did, was postponed and the Cardinals were on their way to Cincinnati. Having said that they have lost three of their last five games. We all know the Cardinals are going to skip Jeff Suppan's start and have Chris Carpenter go tonight. The Cards are now 5-0 in Carpenter's last five starts and all five starts were Quality Starts so the old Chris is back and ready for a playoff run. Having said that, only one of the five opponents in those starts was a playoff position team and that was a home start against the Phillies. On the mound for the Reds tonight is Mike Leake who has struggled lately and lost two of his last three starts but he is 4-1 at home this season and 5-2 in night time starts. Like I said he has not pitched well in recent weeks but 4 of his last 5 starts have been road starts and he'll be happy to pitch at home where he allowed only 1 ER in his last start, an 8-7 win over Washington on July 20. My problem with the Cardinals is that they are not effective enough against right handed pitchers to take advantage of Leake's struggles. They are 8-20 in their last 28 games versus a right handed starter and only 1-6 in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning record on the season. Cincinnati is riding a four game win streak, they are 5-1 in their last six Monday games and they are 5-1 the last six times Mike Leake has pitched on 5+ days of rest (he last pitched on August 3 and is well rested). I like Cincinnati to stay hot in this one.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 5-1 in Mike Leake's last six starts on 5+ days rest.


Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 2






Atlanta Braves ML -119 (10 Units)

This is another one of those that is a bit of a head scratcher because no matter who is on the mound for either team, the Braves are 64-47 and heading for the post-season while the Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball and have a 47-62 record on the season. I figure this might be because Mike Minor is making his first career MLB start in this game but can this Astros team really beat this 22 year old lefty? I highly doubt it. The Astros come into this game having lost four straight now and coming off a road sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers who up until this weekend were finding it tough to beat just about anyone. Houston has allowed 30 runs in their last four games (all losses as mentioned) and now the have to face one of the hottest teams in baseball the Braves who are coming off a 3-1 series win over the Giants at home on the weekend. Mike Minor is making his MLB debut for the Braves and despite being 2-6 in 14 starts with AA Mississippi, he was tremendous in AAA, going 4-1 in six starts with an ERA of 1.89 and 37 strikeouts in 33.1 innings pitched while allowing only 7 ER's. This kid has some serious stuff. On the mound for Houston is Bud Norris who is 1-4 at home this season with an ERA of 6.10 and a WHIP of 1.55 while the team is 2-6 in his eight home starts in 2010. I don't really need to say more than that because the Braves lineup is going to eat him alive. Atlanta is now 9-3 in their last 12 Game 1 situations and they have won 37 of their last 55 games versus a right handed starter. Houston is 1-5 in Bud Norris' last six starts versus a team with a winning record on the season, they are 1-5 in his last five home starts and 1-6 in his last seven starts in Game 1 of a series. I don't expect much from Minor in his MLB debut but the Braves are the much better team and you can't ignore that here.

Trend of the Game: Houston is 1-5 in Bud Norris' last six home starts.


Atlanta 9, Houston 2






Seattle Mariners ML -108 (10 Units)

You don't like to bet on bad teams but I feel like I somewhat exhausted my welcome betting on Oakland against Texas and coming off such a big series win, you have to imagine this team is due for somewhat of a letdown so I am going to put my money where it has been burned so many times in the past and take the Mariners to win. Seattle and Oakland are both coming off 3-2 home wins on Sunday and both should have some momentum coming into this game but neither team is hitting particularly well in their last 10 games and this is probably all going to come down to pitching. Vin Mazzaro is on the mound for Oakland and Doug Fister is on the mound for Seattle. Both have been nothing short of horrendous in their last three starts (both have an ERA above 5.00 in those starts) but both are having good enough seasons that they are worth a look (both have sub 4.00 ERA's on the season). Having said all of that, I will always trust Fister pitching at home in Seattle over Mazzaro pitching away from home. The Mariners are only 4-7 in Fister's 11 home starts in 2010 but in those starts he has an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.02 and has pitched well enough to probably win 8 or 9 at home. The issue with Seattle is always going to be run support because they barely have any. Having said that, Oakland is only 3-3 in Mazzaro's six road starts in 2010 where his ERA is 4.22 and his WHIP is 1.66 in those games. In his only career start against the Mariners, Mazzaro allowed 3 ER's in only 5.0 innings of work and the A's lost the game 3-1. Fister on the other hand has two home wins in his career against Oakland, going 2-0 in two career home starts against them where he allowed 1 ER in 15.0 innings of work. Impressive stuff to say the least. Oakland is only 1-4 in their last five Monday games and only 1-5 in their last six Game 1 situations. Seattle doesn't have much to brag about lately but they have won 20 of their last 28 home games against Oakland and seeing how well Fister has pitched at home this season and against Oakland in his career, I have to think Seattle gets him a win here.

Trend of the Game: Oakland is 1-5 in their last six Game 1's of a series.


Seattle 4, Oakland 1





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Red Sox and Orioles in the bank. Now 10-3 last three days with pending.
 

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Refusing to comment on what sportsbook took a bet on Lester -113 against Hughes? shouldn't be hard to name the book that took your bet, right? is that your way of finally admitting that you don't bet on games....as if we didn't already know...lol....sucks to get caught so many times.

who cares......... let him post his plays....... he usually has decent insight
 
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Win or lose I really enjoy his write-ups. Keep them coming. Even when you agree or disagree with a persons picks does not matter. Those who give reasons for their picks I really enjoy reading. Information as long as it is correct is helpful to all of us. I suck this year in bases and need all the help I can get.
 

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Tuesday, August 10



Philadelphia Phillies ML -103 (10 Units)

Boston Red Sox ML +118 (10 Units)

St. Louis Cardinals ML +122 (10 Units)

New York Yankees ML +127 (10 Units)

Chicago White Sox ML -104 (10 Units)

Seattle Mariners ML -128 (10 Units)





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Wednesday, August 11



St. Louis Cardinals ML -130 (10 Units)

This is it. The two teams are now tied in the Division and this game is for all the marbles. The Cardinals have dominated the first two of this series with their bats and the Reds have shown that their decent pitching all season is starting to look a little bit shaky. Cincinnati is now 5-9 against St. Louis this season and they know very well that if they cannot beat a team like this, their chances of making the playoffs are not very good. On the mound today for the Cardinals is Adam Wainwright and he is going up against Bronson Arroyo. Both guys have pitched well this season and both guys have their team behind them (Cardinals are 16-8 with Wainwright on the mound, Reds are 15-8 with Arroyo on the mound). This is an early game and what you need to know about Wainwright is that his control is lights out when pitching during the day. He is 8-0 in daytime games this season with a 1.45 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in nine day time starts. Arroyo has also been very good in day time starts and the Reds are 7-3 in his 10 day time starts this season. I would be more than willing to back Arroyo and the Reds in such an important had it not been for the fact that he got rocked by the Cardinals back in late May and that could play games in his mind. Up to that point he had pitched three consecutive gems against the Reds and dominated their lineup. Also consider that St. Louis has won 6 of their last 7 Game 3 situations, they are 14-3 the last 17 times Adam Wainwright starts on a Wednesday and having lost eight straight on the road when he pitches against a team with a winning record, you better believe it's time to turn that around. Cincinnati loves pounding on righties but they are 2-5 in their last seven home games and have now dropped four of their last five against the Cardinals. The Division is on the line and I have to back a red hot Cardinals team with a pitcher who is perfect during the day time.

Trend of the Game: St. Louis is 8-1 in Adam Wainwright's nine daytime starts this season.


St. Louis 5, Cincinnati 4






Detroit Tigers ML -117 (10 Units)

You can probably get a better line on the Tigers in this game if you wait right up until game time and I say that because the public is obviously going to pound away on Tampa Bay who seems to have found their groove back after losing five straight games. The Rays came into Detroit after being swept by the Blue Jays in Toronto and they brought their bats with them this time scoring 14 runs in the first two games and making the Tigers look like some kind of expansion team who were at a deficit at almost every position. Detroit is now 2-8 in their last 10 games and believe me these fans are getting impatient because apart from the Red Wings hockey team, the Pistons, Lions and now Tigers are all having big time problems. Here is why Detroit has a chance in this game. Sure they are hitting only .219 in their last 10 games but Tampa Bay is hitting only .216 during that same time span. Justin Verlander is on the mound for Detroit and he has been their rock. The team is 0-3 in his last three starts but 14-9 when he is on the mound in 2010 and they have generally brought a winning attitude when he pitches. Matt Garza is on the mound for the Rays but he is very beatable away from home where the team is only 5-6 in his 11 away starts, very surprising for the best road team in baseball, and where his ERA is 4.00 and his WHIP 1.21 (well below his season numbers). The Tigers are the complete opposite when Verlander is on the mound at home where they are 8-3 in his 11 home starts in 2010 and his ERA in those starts is 2.88 and his WHIP is 1.13. Garza was rocked for 6 ER's in 5.0 innings pitched last time he was here and has allowed 13 ER's in three career starts in Detroit (all three losses by his team). Verlander has Quality Starts in 4 of his last 5 starts and in his four career home starts against Tampa Bay, the Tigers are 4-0 and Verlander has allowed only 11 ER's in those starts. Don't be fooled by some of the numbers Garza has put up this season because regardless, he is not the same pitcher on the road and has yet to win in Detroit in his career. The team is 0-4 in his last four road starts versus a team with a losing record and they are 1-6 in his last seven starts on 4 days of rest. Tampa Bay has won six straight in this series but Detroit is 6-1 in Justin Verlanders last seven starts against Tampa Bay and he is 4-0 lifetime in four career home starts against the Rays. The last 14 times the Tigers have dropped the first two games of a series they have come back to win the third game 11 of those 14 times. This is a great spot to back Detroit with a guy who dominates the Rays lineup.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 6-1 in Justin Verlander's last seven starts against Tampa Bay.


Detroit 6, Tampa Bay 3






Oakland Athletics ML -120 (10 Units)

Yesterday was a day of underdogs pretty much and now it's time for some of these favorites to step up and win some games. I was on Seattle for the first two games of this series and it was one heck of a profit on the worst team in Major League Baseball. Having said that, is this team capable of winning three straight and beating a divisional rival in this kind of series? I would normally say yes but it's only a matter of time before the Oakland bats gets swinging and had it not been for Felix Hernandez and Doug Fister the last two games, this Mariners squad would have been in trouble. Oakland has a grand total of two runs in this series but for a team batting .256 away from home in 2010, that's not going to last. Dallas Braden is on the mound for the A's today and despite the team being 8-11 in his 19 starts in 2010, he has become somewhat of a daytime specialist with his 4-1 daytime record in six daytime starts this season with an ERA of 3.20 and an impressive WHIP of 0.97 in those games. Lucas French is on the mound for Seattle and this is only his fourth starts of 2010. He has allowed 14 ER's in his three starts, the team is 1-2 when he is on the mound and his only daytime start saw him allow 4 ER's in 6.1 innings pitched in Minnesota earlier this month. His only win this year came at home against Kansas City. He has faced Oakland twice in his career and is 1-1 against them having allowed 5 ER's his last time out. Braden has struggled when pitching in this ballpark but he is coming off two solid home starts against Seattle and Oakland is 3-1 lifetime when he pitches against the Mariners. His last two road starts (against Cubs and White Sox) have been tremendous and he has allowed only 2 ER's in those starts combined. Oakland is 7-1 in their last eight games coming off a game where they score 2 or less runs and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games coming off a loss so it would be tough to see them blow that situation two days in a row. Seattle has yet to face a left handed starter in this series and it's worth noting that they are 2-9 in their last 11 home games versus a left handed starter. They are also 1-4 in Lucas French's last five starts and in what should be another somewhat low scoring game, I think Oakland is the team that comes out on top this time around.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 2-9 in their last 11 home games versus a left handed starter.


Oakland 4, Seattle 1






Los Angeles Dodgers ML +124 (10 Units)

That was nothing short of a bitch slap in the face by the Dodgers and they kicked off their first series of the 2010 with the Philadelphia Phillies and I don't know that the Champions of two years ago can recover in time for this game. We all though the Phillies were going to come out and pound away on this Dodgers pitching staff that has a 4.16 combined ERA away from home this season and they somewhat did but it was too little too late and the Dodgers came away with a 15-7 win. Now the boys in blue are swinging the bats and with the win in Game 1, their season is still in the balance of the next few weeks as they sit 4.5 games behind in the Wild Card race with some important series coming up. Chad Billingsley is on the mound for the Dodgers in this one and he has been tremendous his last three starts where his ERA is 1.45 and his WHIP 1.02 but the Dodgers haven't been swinging the bats for him. Roy Oswalt makes his third start for the Phillies and if it goes anything like the first one did (as I predicted when they traded for him), Philadelphia is going to be in a heap of trouble coming out of these first two games. In his last three starts Oswalt has an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.50 and that could be a problem against a team coming off a 15 run performance. The Dodgers have won 7 of Billingsley's 11 road starts this season and despite allowing 3 ER's in his last start, he has pitched a shutout in three of his last four starts and is pitching better than he ever has in his career. Oswalt on the other hand has been a complete disaster in some way because he has failed to come into games and dominate the way the Phillies staff thought he could. The Dodgers are now 5-1 in their last six games versus NL East opponents, they are 4-1 in their last five games versus a right handed starter, they are 6-2 in Chad Billingsley's last eight road starts and are starting to pick things up at the right time of the season. The Phillies on the other hand are a tremendous home team and we all know that but this is a bad spot for them. The last 10 times they allowed 5+ runs in a game, they have come out the next time and gone only 3-7 in the following game. This is an important game for both teams but in the end I have the pitching edge with the Dodgers who have tons of momentum and new playoff hopes with their win yesterday.

Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 3-7 in their last 10 games following a game where they allow 5 or more runs.


LA Dodgers 8, Philadelphia 4






Toronto Blue Jays ML -102 (10 Units)

I've been following the Blue Jays game by game this entire 2010 season and this is exactly the type of game they have come back to win which is why most AL East opponents don't want to face these guys down the stretch. Just ask the Yankees and Rays who came to Toronto within the last week and left with a combined 1-5 record in their two series played. The Jays have a hardcore never say die attitude and even yesterday with all the cards stacked against them they managed to tie the game at 5-5 in the late innings before once again losing a game because of their bullpen (I think the pen has lost 10-15 games for them this year) and that was that for Game 1. Now we have a beautiful pitching matchup for tonight as the Red Sox will send Clay Buchholz to the mound to take on Shawn Marcum as both starting pitchers have winning record this season and both have 10+ wins. Should be a good one. Buchholz has been the better of the two in their last three starts if you compare but I remember a home game at Fenway last September when he allowed 5 Home Runs against this Blue Jays and although it didn't seem to affect him the last time he pitched here, I would imagine it will play some games with his mind and could be a problem down the stretch. Shawn Marcum has been the biggest victim of blown games by the Toronto bullpen because he is 5-2 at home this season but the team is only 5-5 in those starts where his ERA is 2.30 and his WHIP 1.12. He has been tremendous all season long but again the pen has let him down one too many times so Marcum is taking things into his own hands. He got rocked in New York in his last start but his two starts against the Red Sox in 2010 have been gems that have seen him pitch 7.0 innings both times while allowing only 1 ER and only 6 hits while striking out 11 batters. I know this is irrelevant to many but for some reason Boston has problems winning games on Wednesday where they are 1-5 in their last six Wednesday games and only 3-7 the last 10 times Buchholz's pitches on a Wednesday. Toronto is a very good bounce back team as they are 7-0 in their last seven games coming off a game where they allow 5+ runs the game before, they are 8-1 in the last nine Game 2's they have played this season and they are now 11-2 in their last 13 games versus AL East opponents, something you figure would have them closer in the divisional race. They have won 11 of Marcum's last 16 starts and 10 of their last 14 versus a right handed starting pitcher. The Red Sox have dominated the Blue Jays at home the last two seasons winning 9 of their last 10 here but Shawn Marcum is one guy who doesn't back down from this Sox lineup and the Jays have won 6 of his last 8 starts against Boston. Great game, Jays win.

Trend of the Game: Toronto is 11-2 in their last 13 games versus AL East opponents.


Toronto 4, Boston 2






Colorado Rockies ML +106 (10 Units)

Is the season over for Colorado? No. Is another loss going to hurt this team and put them in a serious hole? Somewhat. Having said that, Colorado comes into this game 5.0 games back of St. Louis, Cincinnati and San Francisco in a very right Wild Card Race in the National League and the Mets are only 7.0 games back of that lead themselves so this is an important game. Somehow the Rockies lost with Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound yesterday and Mike Pelfrey on the mound for the Mets (possibly the largest pitching mismatch of the night and the Rockies still lost) but they have been swinging the bats quite nicely the last week or so and I would be shocked if this offense is held to another 0 or 1 run performance. Jeff Francis is on the mound in this one for Colorado and that's bad news for a Mets team that is batting .200 against lefties in their last 10 games overall. Francis comes into this start having had a ton of ups and downs in 2010 so it's tough to say which Francis is going to show up for this one but I will bank on it being the one that is getting 7 runs of support per night time start in 2010 and he's made nine night time starts. That is tremendous run support. Despite a high ERA in those night time starts, Francis has a 1.18 WHIP in those starts and his command has been pretty good. He has not pitched against this Mets lineup since the 2008 season and did have some success against them earlier in his career. In his last five starts overall, Francis has received 38 runs of support in those starts and that's just a crazy number. Jonathon Niese is on the mound for the Mets and he's another one of those guys you just don't know what to expect from. He dominated the Phillies and Cardinals lineups in his last three starts but then got rocked by Arizona's lineup in a home start last week. He has pitched well at times this season but my concern is that he has allowed 9 ER's in two career starts against the Rockies and the Mets are 0-2 in those games. Colorado is another good bounce back team as they are 4-0 in their last four games coming off a loss. They are also 5-1 in their last six starts versus a left handed pitcher, they have struggled on the road in recent weeks but in the end they have won 15 of Jeff Francis' last 22 starts versus NL East opponents. The Mets have no consistency and have lost 16 of their last 21 games coming off a win the game before. They are 1-5 in Jonathon Niese's last six starts, 1-5 in his last six starts versus NL West opponents and as a team they are only 4-11 in their last 15 games versus NL West opponents. I have to go with Colorado who still have a legit shot at making the playoffs in 2010. Colorado has had the toughest time winning games in New York (something like 4 of their last 30 about) but I like the pitching matchup in this one and this is a must win.

Trend of the Game: Colorado is 5-1 in their last six starts versus a left handed starter.


Colorado 9, NY Mets 7





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Wednesday, August 11



New York Yankees ML +161 (10 Units)





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Thursday, August 12



Boston Red Sox ML -103 (10 Units)

I gave the Blue Jays the benefit of the doubt just for one game because of the way Shawn Marcum had pitched against them in the past and because they had won 11 of 13 against AL East opponents over the course of the last few weeks but the Jays once again proved yesterday that they are always going to struggle against the Red Sox. Boston is now 10-1 in their last 11 games played in Toronto and they are 9-2 against the Jays in their last 11 played overall. Toronto's problem all season hasn't been scoring runs of providing power but more their pitching staff has not been what it used to be and it has cost them. They have a team ERA of 4.15 and in their last 10 games the starters have a combined ERA of 5.37. The only reason we are getting such juicy line on the Red Sox is because John Lackey is on the mound and he has struggled big time in his last three starts allowing 13 ER's with an ERA of 6.27 in those starts. The line is also the way it is because of the way Lackey has pitched in daytime games as the team is 1-6 in his seven daytime starts this season but I think this is going to be some sort of turnaround game for Lackey. In his two career starts against Toronto as a Red Sox player, he has been lit up both times for a total of 13 ER's yet the team still managed to win one of those starts. Brad Mills is on the mound for the Blue Jays and making his 5th career start. The reason I like the Red Sox in this game is because in three of his four career starts, he has allowed at least 5 ER's and despite the team being 3-1 in his four career starts, he has looked sharp only one time and it was against a weak hitting Baltimore team. In his only day start of the season, Mills lasted 4.0 innings against Tampa Bay, allowing 5 ER's on 5 hits and 4 walks. This game could get ugly with both pitchers having a horrendous time in day games. Boston does have the edge however as they are 4-1 in their last five games versus a left handed starter and as mentioned before they have dominated the Blue Jays in this ballpark and all season long. Home Plate Umpire Scott Barry gets the call today and the Blue Jays are 0-4 the last four times he has been in charge for one of their games. I have to say I like the Red Sox in a battle of two struggling pitchers. They are still in the playoff picture and they own the Jays.

Trend of the Game: Boston is 10-1 in their last 11 games played in Toronto


Boston 6, Toronto 2






Florida Marlins ML -106 (10 Units)

The first two games of this series have gone to the surging Florida Marlins and don't look now but this is a team that is realistically not out of the playoff picture just yet as they sit 7.5 games behind the Wild Card leading San Francisco Giants and have some big series coming up that could inch them closer. Every year you have that one team that makes an August or September run for the playoffs and Florida seems to be poised to be that team in 2010. After losing five straight last week the playoff hopes were all but gone but they have bounced back nicely and got three of those wins back and tonight get to send Ricky Nolasco on the mound. His ERA looks bad in his last three starts but he has been effective with a 1.12 WHIP in those games and the team is 2-1 in those starts. Nolasco has been cash money all season long when pitching on the road as he is 8-2 away from home in 2010 with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.18 in those starts while the team has gone 9-3 in his 12 road starts. Impressive. He faced Washington twice at home but lost both times and allowed 9 ER's in those starts but don't forget he is not the same pitcher at home and now he gets to face them on the road where he is 3-1 in his last four road starts against Washington. The Nationals will counter with Livan Hernandez in this one and he is pitching really well as of late but the team is 1-2 in his last three starts mainly because they provide him with only 2.0 runs of support per game in those starts. That is a problem because despite his impressive numbers in 2010, the offense has not been there for him and Nolasco can really control road games. Hernandez has pitched two gems against the Marlins this season but the team went 1-1 in those games and barely won the one game they did take home. Florida is a team that is very consistent with their current level of play and they are 6-1 in their last seven games coming off a 5+ run performance the game before. They are also 5-0 in Ricky Nolasco's last five road starts, 16-5 in his last 21 road starts versus a team with a losing record on the season and 5-2 in his last seven starts versus Washington. The Nationals on the other hand are 1-4 in their last five tries at avoiding a series sweep and they have now dropped four straight games. When teams like this are down at this time of the year it's hard to pick them back up and the way Nolasco has pitched on the road in 2010, there is no reason to believe the Marlins don't continue their domination of Washington which now runs at four straight games.

Trend of the Game: Florida is 16-5 in Ricky Nolasco's last 21 road starts versus a team with a losing record on the season.


Florida 4, Washington 2






Chicago White Sox ML -108 (10 Units)

This is the big one and these teams know it. They have exchanged lopsided wins in the first two games of this series and now it's all on the line with the team tied at the top of the AL Central with a dead even record on the season. Believe me neither one of these teams wants to leave this game behind in the Division and we are in for one heck of a baseball game. The White Sox got a beauty from John Danks yesterday to snap their three game losing streak and it could not have come at a better time because to be honest the season was starting to fade and they needed someone to pull them out of that rut. We have a great pitching matchup for this game tonight with Francisco Liriano taking the mound for the Twins and Gaving Floyd on the mound for the White Sox. Liriano is 2-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.07 in those starts. The only concern I have is that the White Sox have pounded away on lefties all season long at home and this should be no different. Well that's a problem for Liriano because no matter how well he has pitched, his success has mostly come at home and the team is only 6-5 in his 11 road starts this season with his ERA being 4.57 and his WHIP being 1.41 in those road starts. He is 2-0 against the White Sox this season pitching beauties both times but they have tagged him in past years and should take advantage of the importance of this game. Floyd gets the call for the White Sox and he too has been lights out. The team is 3-0 in his last three starts where he has allowed only 3 ER's and looking back even deeper than that, he has not allowed more than 2 ER's in any of his last 10 starts (nine of those being Quality Starts). Floyd allowed only one run in his only start of the season against the Twins, it was a 7-4 loss, but this will be the first time since 2008 that he faces Minnesota at home having faced them in Minnesota in five straight. He beat them twice at home in 2008 allowing only 2 ER's and putting together two Quality Starts. Minnesota is not an easy team to beat and they are the best Game 3 team in baseball having won eight straight but Francisco Liriano is not the same pitcher away from home and the Twins are 2-6 in his last eight road starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. They are also 1-7 in Liriano's last eight starts on a Thursday and like I mentioned before, I have made a ton of cash backing the White Sox this season against lefties. As a matter of fact Chicago is 8-1 in their last nine games versus a left handed starter and they have won 22 of their last 26 home games. They are 8-1 in Gaving Floyd's last nine starts coming off a Quality Start the game before, they are 12-3 in Floyd's last 15 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have won an impressive 32 of his last 44 home starts overall. Minnesota has dominated this series in the past but the tide is turning and with Floyd on the mound and against a left handed pitcher, the White Sox should get the job done.

Trend of the Game: Chicago is 8-1 in their last nine starts versus a left handed starting pitcher.


White Sox 7, Minnesota 2





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Friday, August 13



Florida Marlins ML -127 (10 Units)

Texas Rangers ML -126 (10 Units)

Colorado Rockies ML -105 (10 Units)

San Francisco Giants ML -128 (10 Units)





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Not a good night by any means and struggling a bit the last two nights.


This Week: 14-11 (+34.20 Units)



Congrats to all winners, see you all tomorrow!
 

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Saturday, August 14



San Diego Padres ML -113 (10 Units)

Washington Nationals ML -102 (10 Units)

Texas Rangers ML -102 (10 Units)

Los Angeles Angels ML -124 (10 Units)





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Not a good night by any means and struggling a bit the last three nights.


This Week: 15-14 (+12.50 Units)



Congrats to all winners!​
 

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Sunday, August 15



San Diego Padres ML +168 (10 Units)

New York Mets ML -110 (10 Units)






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