All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Florida +1.04 over WASHINGTON
The Marlins ripped apart Stephen Strasburg last night, the first team to do so, and they have to be feeling pretty good coming into this one. They’ve won two straight after a five-game losing streak and let’s not forget that prior to that brief skid they had won 12 of 15. Also note that the Marlins are coming off series against the Cards, Phillies, Padres, Giants and Braves and that group could arguably have the top five rotations in the league. Now the Marlins take a huge step down in class when facing these Nationals, a team that is error-prone, that’s not hitting the ball and that’s lost three in a row and four of five. Scott Olsen makes just his third start back since coming off the DL. Olsen was good once upon a time but he had Labrem surgery in ’06 and he has a bum shoulder that’s given him problems ever since. He went on the DL this year for two months after complaining of stiffness in that same shoulder. His velocity was down in ’08 and ’09 and he’s simply a beaten down pitcher that the Nats are hoping to get some innings from for the remainder of the season. Chris Volstad is 23 and has a ton of upside. With a groundball rate of 47%, some real good stuff and a HR/9 of 0.9 this season, Volstad shows the skills necessary to succeed, especially if he can reduce the walks a little bit. Volstad has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and he has absolutely dominated the Nats twice already this season. In fact, in 16 IP against WAS he’s allowed eight hits, walked three and struck out 12 for a BAA of .151 and an ERA of 1.69. Olsen favored over Volstad and the Fish is incorrect. Play: Florida +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.20 over MILWAUKEE
Daniel Hudson has made two starts for the D-Backs since being traded from the White Sox and he’s performed brilliantly in both. He’s thrown not one, but two three-hitters and comes into this one with his confidence soaring. In 15.2 innings since joining the Snakes, Hudson has allowed six hits and two ER for a BAA of .113 and an ERA of 1.15. The kid has nasty stuff and it’s not a fluke. At Triple-AAA Charlotte this season he struck out 108 batters in 93 IP and he certainly has another great chance to excel against the free-swinging Brewers. These pitchers going from the AL to the NL over the past few years have been money and Hudson is no exception. Meanwhile, Dave Bush instills fear into nobody. This guy is hittable and relies heavily on hitting his spots and changing speeds. Sometimes it works but more often it does not. He has five wins in 22 starts this season, a BAA of .291, a high WHIP of 1.55 and rarely does he make it past the sixth inning. The D-Backs are very warm with five wins in its last six with only loss over that stretch coming against Mat Latos. Dave Bush is no Mat Latos. Play: Arizona +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.53 over SAN FRANCISCO
If you’re buying into Barry Zito’s success this season all we can say is good luck to you because it’s not going to last. A serious correction in Zito’s numbers is likely to occur in the season’s last seven weeks. There is no doubt that when we look at the surface stats, Zito looks like the Cy Young winner he once was ... but when we look under the hood, we see that this is a skill set that really hasn't changed all that much. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre garbage that says he can't get out of trouble on his own and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. What he’s done this year is run into some very cold teams at the plate. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back in time and retrieve the skills he once had. His stock is high but his value is very low and the fact that he’s –1.63 is completely out of whack, especially when you consider that the Giants are laboring badly. Furthermore, Tom Gorzelanny is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Giants and he’s 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA since rejoining the rotation. However, this isn’t about wagering on Gorzelanny as much as it is about taking back a sweet tag against Zito. Play: Chicago +1.53 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.06 over DETROIT
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. The Tigers are pressing hard and they’re pretty much a mess right now. In fact, the Tigers have dropped an incredible 22 of its last 28 games and have been outscored in the first two games of this series 14-3. They may even press harder this afternoon against a pitcher that no-hit them three weeks ago. The pitching match-up is fairly even as Justin Verlander has a 3.81 ERA and Garza’s ERA is 3.88. However, Verlander’s ERA over his last three starts is 4.09 while Garza’s is 1.50. So, while the pitching match-up is even, nothing else is and the fact that we can take back a small price against the reeling Tigers, who are 0-7 against the Rays this season, is a pretty sweet proposition. Play: Tampa Bay +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.04 over WASHINGTON
The Marlins ripped apart Stephen Strasburg last night, the first team to do so, and they have to be feeling pretty good coming into this one. They’ve won two straight after a five-game losing streak and let’s not forget that prior to that brief skid they had won 12 of 15. Also note that the Marlins are coming off series against the Cards, Phillies, Padres, Giants and Braves and that group could arguably have the top five rotations in the league. Now the Marlins take a huge step down in class when facing these Nationals, a team that is error-prone, that’s not hitting the ball and that’s lost three in a row and four of five. Scott Olsen makes just his third start back since coming off the DL. Olsen was good once upon a time but he had Labrem surgery in ’06 and he has a bum shoulder that’s given him problems ever since. He went on the DL this year for two months after complaining of stiffness in that same shoulder. His velocity was down in ’08 and ’09 and he’s simply a beaten down pitcher that the Nats are hoping to get some innings from for the remainder of the season. Chris Volstad is 23 and has a ton of upside. With a groundball rate of 47%, some real good stuff and a HR/9 of 0.9 this season, Volstad shows the skills necessary to succeed, especially if he can reduce the walks a little bit. Volstad has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and he has absolutely dominated the Nats twice already this season. In fact, in 16 IP against WAS he’s allowed eight hits, walked three and struck out 12 for a BAA of .151 and an ERA of 1.69. Olsen favored over Volstad and the Fish is incorrect. Play: Florida +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.20 over MILWAUKEE
Daniel Hudson has made two starts for the D-Backs since being traded from the White Sox and he’s performed brilliantly in both. He’s thrown not one, but two three-hitters and comes into this one with his confidence soaring. In 15.2 innings since joining the Snakes, Hudson has allowed six hits and two ER for a BAA of .113 and an ERA of 1.15. The kid has nasty stuff and it’s not a fluke. At Triple-AAA Charlotte this season he struck out 108 batters in 93 IP and he certainly has another great chance to excel against the free-swinging Brewers. These pitchers going from the AL to the NL over the past few years have been money and Hudson is no exception. Meanwhile, Dave Bush instills fear into nobody. This guy is hittable and relies heavily on hitting his spots and changing speeds. Sometimes it works but more often it does not. He has five wins in 22 starts this season, a BAA of .291, a high WHIP of 1.55 and rarely does he make it past the sixth inning. The D-Backs are very warm with five wins in its last six with only loss over that stretch coming against Mat Latos. Dave Bush is no Mat Latos. Play: Arizona +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.53 over SAN FRANCISCO
If you’re buying into Barry Zito’s success this season all we can say is good luck to you because it’s not going to last. A serious correction in Zito’s numbers is likely to occur in the season’s last seven weeks. There is no doubt that when we look at the surface stats, Zito looks like the Cy Young winner he once was ... but when we look under the hood, we see that this is a skill set that really hasn't changed all that much. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre garbage that says he can't get out of trouble on his own and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. What he’s done this year is run into some very cold teams at the plate. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back in time and retrieve the skills he once had. His stock is high but his value is very low and the fact that he’s –1.63 is completely out of whack, especially when you consider that the Giants are laboring badly. Furthermore, Tom Gorzelanny is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Giants and he’s 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA since rejoining the rotation. However, this isn’t about wagering on Gorzelanny as much as it is about taking back a sweet tag against Zito. Play: Chicago +1.53 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.06 over DETROIT
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. The Tigers are pressing hard and they’re pretty much a mess right now. In fact, the Tigers have dropped an incredible 22 of its last 28 games and have been outscored in the first two games of this series 14-3. They may even press harder this afternoon against a pitcher that no-hit them three weeks ago. The pitching match-up is fairly even as Justin Verlander has a 3.81 ERA and Garza’s ERA is 3.88. However, Verlander’s ERA over his last three starts is 4.09 while Garza’s is 1.50. So, while the pitching match-up is even, nothing else is and the fact that we can take back a small price against the reeling Tigers, who are 0-7 against the Rays this season, is a pretty sweet proposition. Play: Tampa Bay +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
