All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Colorado +1.42 over NY METS
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Jason Hammel has been an undervalued pitcher all season long and remains undervalued here. Johan Santana remains an overvalued pitcher and thus, the result is a rather big overlay. Hammel is making his April struggles a distant memory. He posted an elite 122 BPV in July but a 4.46 ERA in July did not reflect this skill spike, in part due to a slightly elevated 33% hit rate and low 63% strand rate. And remember Hammel's strong run after July 1 last season? Well, he was near unhittable. Hammel has pitched three of his last five in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and at Wrigley on a day when the wind was blowing out. Those are three of the friendliest hitter's parks in the majors. His strikeout/walk ratio is soaring, he’s an elite groundball pitcher and he should thrive at this venue. Meanwhile Johan Santana’s nagging incident with the alleged rape is back in the news. With that fresh on his mind, Santana and his declining skills will take the mound. Santana is coming off a beauty against the Phillies but prior to that he was rocked in back-to-back starts against the Braves and Cards. Santana has one of the lowest GB rates in the majors at 32% and while this park masks many of his deficiencies, they still get exposed often. Fact is, Santana is a lucky pitcher and his numbers could be in for a big correction in the final seven weeks. Play: Colorado +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
Florida –1.05 over WASHINGTON
Ricky Nolasco is another one of those undervalued pitchers. His surface stats are average but when you look under the surface, it’s a different story. He’s done much better in his five second-half starts and with you combine that with his impeccable control (28BB/130 K’s), it’s clear why his xERA is so low. Nolasco’s ERA in 2009 and the first half of 2010 weren’t great, but that was due to various factors that included a very low strand percentage and a high HR/9 ratio. It’s encouraging to see that three of the second-half strong outings were on the road. This guy can pitch and could be in for a big final seven or eight starts. Furthermore, the Marlins have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. They scored eight the first night and nine last night and will face a guy that’s somehow discovered the fountain of youth. Everyone has been waiting all year for Livan Hernandez to blow up but it hasn’t happened yet. Despite strong start after strong start, this guy is not trustworthy because of xERA’s way higher than his actual ERA. In fact when you break it down by month we have the following:
Month ERA xERA
===== ==== ====
April 0.87 4.79
May 3.25 4.80
June 5.12 5.25
July 4.02 5.44
The above sample shows why metric’s matter. You’ll notice an increase in xERA every month. Look for Hernandez to revert to his previously established level - the one well below mediocrity. Play: Florida –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Baltimore +1.32 over CLEVELAND
Buck Showalter could run for mayor of Baltimore right now and win by a landslide. The O’s are 8-1 since he took over and there’s not a crystal ball in the world that could’ve predicted that. Showalter has put the Orioles in a completely different mindset and it’s working big time. Now the O’s are taking back +1.32 against a minor-leaguer with two good starts in the majors but don’t expect that to last. Jeanmar Gomez was called up to make a spot start and was supposed to be sent right back down. This guy had a rough go of it this year at the minor-league level, with a 5.68 ERA in 18 games started. Signed in 2005 as a non-drafted FA out of Venezuela, Gomez doesn't possess dominating stuff. He isn't a strike out pitcher, but attempts to induce weak contact by spotting his fastball to both sides of the plate. For his five-year minor league career he has a 4.30 ERA and at Columbus this year he allowed 116 hits in 101 IP and that includes 15 jacks. Gomez is a #5 starter at best and his charmed life in the majors is going to come crashing down real soon. Carlos Santana’s absence (out for the season after knee surgery) isn’t helping an erratic Cleveland offensive attack and Kevin Millwood is experienced enough to take full advantage. Imagine Millwood’s reaction this morning when browsing the Internet and seeing a 5-year minor-leaguer favored over him. If that doesn’t motivate him, nothing will. This line is out of whack. Play: Baltimore +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.42 over NY METS
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Jason Hammel has been an undervalued pitcher all season long and remains undervalued here. Johan Santana remains an overvalued pitcher and thus, the result is a rather big overlay. Hammel is making his April struggles a distant memory. He posted an elite 122 BPV in July but a 4.46 ERA in July did not reflect this skill spike, in part due to a slightly elevated 33% hit rate and low 63% strand rate. And remember Hammel's strong run after July 1 last season? Well, he was near unhittable. Hammel has pitched three of his last five in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and at Wrigley on a day when the wind was blowing out. Those are three of the friendliest hitter's parks in the majors. His strikeout/walk ratio is soaring, he’s an elite groundball pitcher and he should thrive at this venue. Meanwhile Johan Santana’s nagging incident with the alleged rape is back in the news. With that fresh on his mind, Santana and his declining skills will take the mound. Santana is coming off a beauty against the Phillies but prior to that he was rocked in back-to-back starts against the Braves and Cards. Santana has one of the lowest GB rates in the majors at 32% and while this park masks many of his deficiencies, they still get exposed often. Fact is, Santana is a lucky pitcher and his numbers could be in for a big correction in the final seven weeks. Play: Colorado +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
Florida –1.05 over WASHINGTON
Ricky Nolasco is another one of those undervalued pitchers. His surface stats are average but when you look under the surface, it’s a different story. He’s done much better in his five second-half starts and with you combine that with his impeccable control (28BB/130 K’s), it’s clear why his xERA is so low. Nolasco’s ERA in 2009 and the first half of 2010 weren’t great, but that was due to various factors that included a very low strand percentage and a high HR/9 ratio. It’s encouraging to see that three of the second-half strong outings were on the road. This guy can pitch and could be in for a big final seven or eight starts. Furthermore, the Marlins have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. They scored eight the first night and nine last night and will face a guy that’s somehow discovered the fountain of youth. Everyone has been waiting all year for Livan Hernandez to blow up but it hasn’t happened yet. Despite strong start after strong start, this guy is not trustworthy because of xERA’s way higher than his actual ERA. In fact when you break it down by month we have the following:
Month ERA xERA
===== ==== ====
April 0.87 4.79
May 3.25 4.80
June 5.12 5.25
July 4.02 5.44
The above sample shows why metric’s matter. You’ll notice an increase in xERA every month. Look for Hernandez to revert to his previously established level - the one well below mediocrity. Play: Florida –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Baltimore +1.32 over CLEVELAND
Buck Showalter could run for mayor of Baltimore right now and win by a landslide. The O’s are 8-1 since he took over and there’s not a crystal ball in the world that could’ve predicted that. Showalter has put the Orioles in a completely different mindset and it’s working big time. Now the O’s are taking back +1.32 against a minor-leaguer with two good starts in the majors but don’t expect that to last. Jeanmar Gomez was called up to make a spot start and was supposed to be sent right back down. This guy had a rough go of it this year at the minor-league level, with a 5.68 ERA in 18 games started. Signed in 2005 as a non-drafted FA out of Venezuela, Gomez doesn't possess dominating stuff. He isn't a strike out pitcher, but attempts to induce weak contact by spotting his fastball to both sides of the plate. For his five-year minor league career he has a 4.30 ERA and at Columbus this year he allowed 116 hits in 101 IP and that includes 15 jacks. Gomez is a #5 starter at best and his charmed life in the majors is going to come crashing down real soon. Carlos Santana’s absence (out for the season after knee surgery) isn’t helping an erratic Cleveland offensive attack and Kevin Millwood is experienced enough to take full advantage. Imagine Millwood’s reaction this morning when browsing the Internet and seeing a 5-year minor-leaguer favored over him. If that doesn’t motivate him, nothing will. This line is out of whack. Play: Baltimore +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
