Little known fact that if someone hits over I think it's 54% of their wagers for a season they will make considerable more profit if all their plays were made as parlays. Now like I said you have to hit a certain WIN PCT but if you do you are costing yourself money by not betting these in parlays.
In fact this is something I want to do this year in the NFL.
In fact this is something I want to do this year in the NFL.
If you hit 52.4% or better, your EV is a good bit higher with 2 and 3 team parlays than straight bets, albeit with more variance. Where things get tricky is how to stake your bets (assuming you can get the peak line for each leg of a parlay at the same place). I learned this lesson the hard way.
Absolutely, which is why I mentioned it. But if you're playing openers and/or trying to circumvent the limits then parlays are a huge help in getting down more without moving the line. The problem with parlays (can be a problem with teasers when you have 8+ teams you're teasing like this past weekend) is how to stake them. If you have 10 plays, that gives you 10c2 (or 45 for those unfamiliar with combinations or permutations) different 2-team parlays to make. Obviously if you flat bet 1% of your bankroll per play you would have 45% of your BR at risk on just 10 opinions - a good recipe for disaster. As I said, I learned this the hard way. I think the best way to do it is allocate 2% of your BR per play.
....well that was easy.
Buy 6 points on wagers -8.5 to -7.5; +1.5 to +2.5
hno:
You can also include the -7 and +3 in the teasers depending on the ML/total. The most important part is not teasing the +2.5 if the +3 is available to a decent share of the market which is something people frequently do incorrectly.
No disrespect, but this is just simply a false statement. Firstly, in the NFL the spread and ML are almost always correlated so your long-term expected value betting into either one is the same - same principle as the ML and RL in baseball - there is no difference which one you bet because they are exactly the same for the most part. In other words, if you think the ML or spread is the "right side", so too is the other wager.
Re: teasers, they could not be any less of a waste of time as they take all of 2 minutes to construct by looking at a line service, finding the market price or better at the same book with decent teaser odds, placing the bet. If anything, betting opinions on pre-game widely available lines is a waste of time. And they're obviously not a waste of money when you need to hit 72.3% on each leg with 6-point, 2-team teasers at -110 (break-even is 70.7% vs. +100 lines but these books are usually good at teaser defense like Pinny or 5Dimes) and Wong Teasers historically hit about 74%.
Re: parlays, there really is nothing to argue, just look at the numbers. What would be the expected value of someone who hits only a "mere" 54% vs. -110 lines playing only straight bets?
[.54 * (100/110)] + [.46 * -(110/110)] = 3.09%.
Not bad, you're getting $3.09 on every $100 invested - better than the vast majority of people on the forums. Now let's see how our friend would do if he theoretically put all of these 54% plays into 2-team parlays vs. industry standard +260 payout:
0.54 * 0.54 * 2.6 + (1 - .54 * .54) * -1 = 4.98%. So for that same $100 wagered, you're winning $4.98 for every $100 wagered.
The higher your winrate, the more parlays amplify your advantage. For instance a 55% handicapper will have a 5% ROI on straight bets, 8.9% on two-team parlays, and 16.5% on three-teamers.
100% disagree.........if you take the time to do the math on NFL teasers they are +ev..........some folks dont like or do them i understand that..........there is a reason why a lot of books use 1- juice on a game instead of anything between 1 1/2 and 2 1/2..they dont want you getting 6 points to cross +7..........there is value in them....and books will use 9 dog -juice instead of any line between 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 so you cant cross -3 on a 6 pointer..........
When you play parlays etc imo the best time to do it is when you playing with the book money and up.I see so many people trying to wager on parlays when they are down and trying to get their money back.Why do you think a lot of bookies start a lot of people out on those little parlay sheets , where you got to pick at least 3 teams.If bookies lost money on a reg thing with parlays do you think this would be force on the newbies.NO...ck
