Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 31 44 1 -9.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 164 205 3 -2.10 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Seattle +1.46 over CLEVELAND
The Indians simply cannot be trusted as a significant favorite and betting them as such is a big risk that should be avoided. The Tribe scratch and claw for every run they push across and they lose way more games than they win. They’re hitting a combined .232 over its last 15 games and that’s after playing all 15 games at hitter’s parks. The Mariners haven’t been much better, however, they play at a much more difficult park and they’re not laying –1.55. David Pauley is 0-4 and that’s one of the reason’s the M’s are such a big dog. Apart from 2008, which was likely affected by the fact that Pauley worked more as a reliever than a starter, he has demonstrated remarkable consistency in his skills. Pauley has a very respectable 3.38 ERA and a just as respectable BAA of .252. Pauley has worked exclusively as a starter in the minors, but he's been a swingman in the majors, with eight career starts and seven career relief appearances. The Cliff Lee trade opened up a spot in the rotation for him, and given that two of his competitors (Luke French and Ryan Rowland-Smith) are sporting ERAs and xERAs over 6.00, he may be able to hang in there for a while. At 27, Pauley offers no real upside beyond what we're seeing right now, but he's at least worthy of consideration in the right spot and at this price against this team, this is one of those spots. Fausto Carmona has been tagged for 28 hits in his last 17 innings. At home he’s walked 34 batters and struck out 44. Carmona has had one good year in the majors and that came in ’07 when he posted an ERA of 3.06. In his other three seasons in the majors his ERA was over 5.00 each time. Of course the Indians can win this game, as the Mariners are a bad baseball team. However, in terms of value, one has to consider that the M’s chances of winning this one are equally as good as the Indians chances, thus creating the big overlay. Play: Seattle +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.05 over WASHINGTON
The Nats were just swept by the Marlins and were outscored 22-7 in the three-game set. Washington has now lost five in a row and six of seven and they’ll play to another tiny crowd tonight. This is a team that is playing out the string and a team with no value whatsoever with John Lannan on the hill. Arizona has a league-high .801 OPS against LHP this season, which is notable considering that Lannan is a southpaw. Lannan has more walks (38) than strikeouts (29), he has an off-the-charts WHIP of 1.79, a BAA of .321 and things get even worse when he pitches at RFK. In fact, Lannan has a BAA of .355 at home after allowing 55 hits in 35 frames. Meanwhile, the D-Backs are coming off a series in Milwaukee in which they took three of four and scored 21 runs in the four-game set. Arizona has won six of its last eight games and seem to be responding under the tutelage of its new manager, Kirk Gibson, a guy who always hated to lose. Joe Saunders has allowed two runs or less in five of his last eight starts. That includes a seven hit, one run, seven-inning gem at Texas. He threw a complete game, five-hitter against these same Nats just 10 days ago and while he may not duplicate that here, he’s still has way more value as a dog than Lannan has as the chalk. Play: Arizona +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON –1½ +1.35 over Pittsburgh
The first thing to note here is that the Pirates are an incredible 7-33 on the road against righties. That’s a number that should not be ignored and they’ll face a beauty here. Through 23 starts Brett Myers has a 3.21 ERA, 119 K’s and a 1.22 WHIP. Myers has pitched at least six full innings in all 23 of his starts and is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA over his last three. The Astros are 7-0 at home this year vs the Pirates and have outscored them 33-13. Houston leads the NL in runs scored in August and they’ll face a guy they’ve absolutely crushed. Russ Ohlendorf is 0-6 with a 7.49 ERA in seven starts against Houston, including 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in two starts this season. The Pirates have dropped seven straight on the road and there’s no reason to believe that skid ends here. Play: Houston –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.15 over L.A. ANGELS
Scott Kazmir returned to the rotation this past week with a decent start in Detroit. Big deal. Kazmir's season has been a disastrous one and he has yet to show any consistent skills this year that could indicate he will turn the remainder of his season around. Prior to that start against the Tigers, Kazmir allowed 30 ER in 18 IP and at home this season he’s sporting a 7.28 ERA and a BAA of .313. Current Jays hitter’s have seen him plenty of times over the years and that’s when he was good. Those days are gone. The Jays are coming off series against the Yanks, Rays and Red Sox in which they won six of nine including a dramatic win yesterday. In terms of offense, they’re as good as any team in the business and than some. Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and Travis Snyder are all hot and they join a few other hot bats in this potent line-up. The Angels are not much of a threat against lefties and will face a slew of them here beginning tonight with Marc Rzepczynski. Pay no attention to Rzepczynski’s 7.15 ERA. This guy is an elite groundball pitcher and was impressive last season with a 50% ground ball rate and a 3.67 ERA in 61.1 innings. The Jays chances of winning are actually better than the Angels based on everything and the fact that we can take a tag on them here seals the deal. Definite overlay. Play: Toronto +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 31 44 1 -9.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 164 205 3 -2.10 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Seattle +1.46 over CLEVELAND
The Indians simply cannot be trusted as a significant favorite and betting them as such is a big risk that should be avoided. The Tribe scratch and claw for every run they push across and they lose way more games than they win. They’re hitting a combined .232 over its last 15 games and that’s after playing all 15 games at hitter’s parks. The Mariners haven’t been much better, however, they play at a much more difficult park and they’re not laying –1.55. David Pauley is 0-4 and that’s one of the reason’s the M’s are such a big dog. Apart from 2008, which was likely affected by the fact that Pauley worked more as a reliever than a starter, he has demonstrated remarkable consistency in his skills. Pauley has a very respectable 3.38 ERA and a just as respectable BAA of .252. Pauley has worked exclusively as a starter in the minors, but he's been a swingman in the majors, with eight career starts and seven career relief appearances. The Cliff Lee trade opened up a spot in the rotation for him, and given that two of his competitors (Luke French and Ryan Rowland-Smith) are sporting ERAs and xERAs over 6.00, he may be able to hang in there for a while. At 27, Pauley offers no real upside beyond what we're seeing right now, but he's at least worthy of consideration in the right spot and at this price against this team, this is one of those spots. Fausto Carmona has been tagged for 28 hits in his last 17 innings. At home he’s walked 34 batters and struck out 44. Carmona has had one good year in the majors and that came in ’07 when he posted an ERA of 3.06. In his other three seasons in the majors his ERA was over 5.00 each time. Of course the Indians can win this game, as the Mariners are a bad baseball team. However, in terms of value, one has to consider that the M’s chances of winning this one are equally as good as the Indians chances, thus creating the big overlay. Play: Seattle +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.05 over WASHINGTON
The Nats were just swept by the Marlins and were outscored 22-7 in the three-game set. Washington has now lost five in a row and six of seven and they’ll play to another tiny crowd tonight. This is a team that is playing out the string and a team with no value whatsoever with John Lannan on the hill. Arizona has a league-high .801 OPS against LHP this season, which is notable considering that Lannan is a southpaw. Lannan has more walks (38) than strikeouts (29), he has an off-the-charts WHIP of 1.79, a BAA of .321 and things get even worse when he pitches at RFK. In fact, Lannan has a BAA of .355 at home after allowing 55 hits in 35 frames. Meanwhile, the D-Backs are coming off a series in Milwaukee in which they took three of four and scored 21 runs in the four-game set. Arizona has won six of its last eight games and seem to be responding under the tutelage of its new manager, Kirk Gibson, a guy who always hated to lose. Joe Saunders has allowed two runs or less in five of his last eight starts. That includes a seven hit, one run, seven-inning gem at Texas. He threw a complete game, five-hitter against these same Nats just 10 days ago and while he may not duplicate that here, he’s still has way more value as a dog than Lannan has as the chalk. Play: Arizona +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON –1½ +1.35 over Pittsburgh
The first thing to note here is that the Pirates are an incredible 7-33 on the road against righties. That’s a number that should not be ignored and they’ll face a beauty here. Through 23 starts Brett Myers has a 3.21 ERA, 119 K’s and a 1.22 WHIP. Myers has pitched at least six full innings in all 23 of his starts and is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA over his last three. The Astros are 7-0 at home this year vs the Pirates and have outscored them 33-13. Houston leads the NL in runs scored in August and they’ll face a guy they’ve absolutely crushed. Russ Ohlendorf is 0-6 with a 7.49 ERA in seven starts against Houston, including 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in two starts this season. The Pirates have dropped seven straight on the road and there’s no reason to believe that skid ends here. Play: Houston –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.15 over L.A. ANGELS
Scott Kazmir returned to the rotation this past week with a decent start in Detroit. Big deal. Kazmir's season has been a disastrous one and he has yet to show any consistent skills this year that could indicate he will turn the remainder of his season around. Prior to that start against the Tigers, Kazmir allowed 30 ER in 18 IP and at home this season he’s sporting a 7.28 ERA and a BAA of .313. Current Jays hitter’s have seen him plenty of times over the years and that’s when he was good. Those days are gone. The Jays are coming off series against the Yanks, Rays and Red Sox in which they won six of nine including a dramatic win yesterday. In terms of offense, they’re as good as any team in the business and than some. Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and Travis Snyder are all hot and they join a few other hot bats in this potent line-up. The Angels are not much of a threat against lefties and will face a slew of them here beginning tonight with Marc Rzepczynski. Pay no attention to Rzepczynski’s 7.15 ERA. This guy is an elite groundball pitcher and was impressive last season with a 50% ground ball rate and a 3.67 ERA in 61.1 innings. The Jays chances of winning are actually better than the Angels based on everything and the fact that we can take a tag on them here seals the deal. Definite overlay. Play: Toronto +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
