Yesterday 3 1 0 +5.92 Units
Last 30 Days 34 45 1 -4.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 167 206 3 +3.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
San Diego –1.13 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Padres are not choking under pressure of a pennant drive and in fact, they’re thriving. They’ve now won five straight and came in here last night and won the opener 3-2. The Padres have now won eight of nine over the Giants and have outscored them 30-18 while holding them to two runs or fewer in each victory. Things now get tougher for the Giants when they face Mat Latos. It's not often that a 21-year-old pitching prospect exceeds expectations in his first full season in the majors but Latos has done exactly that, becoming the ace of the Padres in the process. In 130 IP, Latos is 12-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.99 WHIP and he’s 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three starts against San Francisco. Latos has allowed 11 hits in 22 frames against the Giants this year for a BAA of .149. In those 22 frames he walked two and struck out 13. The Giants will likely use newly acquired Jose Gullien today and he’s batting .151 since the all-star break and adds nothing except bitterness from whomever he’s taking AB’s away from. Madison Bumgarner is losing steam and he’s losing steam quickly. Upon his call-up in June, Bumgarner had a four-game winning streak in which he posted a 1.35 ERA but he’s no longer a stranger. Since then, Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA and that’s with a very high strand rate of 78%. Long-term, his future continues to look incredibly bright. For the remainder of this season, be prepared for the risks that come with any young hurler (he’s 20 years old), and know that workload concerns could enter the picture soon -- he threw 141 IP in 2008 and 2009, and is at 134 IP already this season between the minors and majors and those major league innings are a lot more difficult. Psychologically, give a big edge to the Padres. The Giants have to be thinking in the back of their minds that they can’t beat this team and at least for today they’re probably right. Play: San Diego –1.13 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Los Angeles +1.20 over ATLANTA
The most remarkable story of 2010 just might be the Braves 40-15 record at home. This is nowhere near a 40-15 club. They’re offensively challenged and things are getting worse. In fact, in 12 August games the Braves are batting .228. Other than Chipper Jones, who is out, no Brave is batting over .286 this month and Matt Diaz, Troy Glaus, Jason Heyward and Rick Ankiel are all batting under .220. Meanwhile, Ronnie Belliard, Andre Ethier, Ryan Theriot and Jamey Carroll are all batting .300 or better. Matt Kemp (.226) is the only Dodger regular batting less than .267 this month and he’s warming up. Derek Lowe is coming off a start in which he was bothered by cramps in his hamstring and right arm and should not be trusted because if his slider isn’t sharp he’s useless. Lowe is having another good year but his chances of an implosion are so much stronger than Ted Lilly’s, especially when you consider the current form of these two offenses. The Dodgers are going through a very rough stretch and its skid really defies logic. They’re getting very good starting pitching and they’re hitting the ball, yet they’re losing games. Blame an erratic pen for that. Ted Lilly has been a great addition but that should come as no surprise. Lilly has had success everywhere he’s been and since joining L.A. he’s allowed four runs and seven hits in 13 innings. Overall, Lilly has a 2.18 ERA in his last five starts and this could be his easiest assignment of them all. Play: Los Angeles +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.22 over ANAHEIM
The Angels a –1.30 favorite here is simply incorrect. Against southpaws the Angels see BB’s and they’re facing one here with nasty stuff. Brett Cecil has allowed one ER in four of his last six starts and that includes games against the Twins and Yankees in which he four-hit them both. Over that six-game stretch he has a 2.06 ERA and a BAA of .192. To make matters worse for the Angels, they’ve not seen this guy much at all and in fact, current Angels have just 25 AB’s against Cecil and combined they have two hits, both by Matsui. Everyone else is batting .000. The Jays remain hot with a 13-6 record over its last 19 games. They’re better vs right-handers (52-39) and will face one here in Earvin Santana. Santana is tough but he could also be a durability risk given the elbow and forearm problems that have plagued him. His skills also may be reflecting that risk. His BPV** (see bottom of this page for explanation of BPV) by month, starting in May: 94, 57, 42 and he’s been absolutely crushed in two of his last three starts. Just like last night, the Angels have no advantage here and the Jays chances of winning are actually better than the Angels chances. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.87 over TAMPA BAY
The Orioles remain very warm and after beating the Rays 5-0 last night they’re now 9-2 since Buck Showalter took over. Incredible. The O’s are having fun for the first time all season and will send out the very underrated Brian Matusz. Matusz was a top prospect and got his first major-league experience last season in which he displayed very good control. That's an awfully good place to start. This season he’s had his bumps for sure but when the team you pitch for loses almost every game, it’s so tough to build any confidence. Since the arrival of Showalter everyone is feeling better. Matusz now has two quality starts in a row, allowing two runs in 12 innings combined over that span. He’s had a rock solid 63 BPV the first time through a lineup, and an electric 121 BPV the second time through. It's the third time a lineup sees him that has given him fits but he’ll learn to make adjustments. Weigh his electric skill flashes and a big tag more heavily than his periodic struggles. This kid can pitch and he’ll face a Rays team that is last in the majors this month with a combined .206 BA. The Rays will also send its worst starter to the mound in Andy Sonnastine, who is filling in until Jeff Niemann and/or Wade Davis returns. Sonnastine went 6-9 last season with a 6.77 ERA. He’s a soft-tosser with very little margin for error. He’s pitched solely out of relief this year and while his numbers are decent, starting is a whole different animal. He’s never had success as a starter and he’s also very prone to the long ball, as his nine jacks in 54 IP this year will attest to. In his career in 73 games as a starter, Sonnastine has an ERA of 5.45 and offers up absolutely nothing as a 2-1 favorite. Yeah, the Rays can win here but what we have is a sweet tag on the resurgent O’s with the better pitcher against a team that is hitting nothing these days. Big overlay. Play: Baltimore +1.87 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 34 45 1 -4.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 167 206 3 +3.82 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
San Diego –1.13 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Padres are not choking under pressure of a pennant drive and in fact, they’re thriving. They’ve now won five straight and came in here last night and won the opener 3-2. The Padres have now won eight of nine over the Giants and have outscored them 30-18 while holding them to two runs or fewer in each victory. Things now get tougher for the Giants when they face Mat Latos. It's not often that a 21-year-old pitching prospect exceeds expectations in his first full season in the majors but Latos has done exactly that, becoming the ace of the Padres in the process. In 130 IP, Latos is 12-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.99 WHIP and he’s 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three starts against San Francisco. Latos has allowed 11 hits in 22 frames against the Giants this year for a BAA of .149. In those 22 frames he walked two and struck out 13. The Giants will likely use newly acquired Jose Gullien today and he’s batting .151 since the all-star break and adds nothing except bitterness from whomever he’s taking AB’s away from. Madison Bumgarner is losing steam and he’s losing steam quickly. Upon his call-up in June, Bumgarner had a four-game winning streak in which he posted a 1.35 ERA but he’s no longer a stranger. Since then, Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA and that’s with a very high strand rate of 78%. Long-term, his future continues to look incredibly bright. For the remainder of this season, be prepared for the risks that come with any young hurler (he’s 20 years old), and know that workload concerns could enter the picture soon -- he threw 141 IP in 2008 and 2009, and is at 134 IP already this season between the minors and majors and those major league innings are a lot more difficult. Psychologically, give a big edge to the Padres. The Giants have to be thinking in the back of their minds that they can’t beat this team and at least for today they’re probably right. Play: San Diego –1.13 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Los Angeles +1.20 over ATLANTA
The most remarkable story of 2010 just might be the Braves 40-15 record at home. This is nowhere near a 40-15 club. They’re offensively challenged and things are getting worse. In fact, in 12 August games the Braves are batting .228. Other than Chipper Jones, who is out, no Brave is batting over .286 this month and Matt Diaz, Troy Glaus, Jason Heyward and Rick Ankiel are all batting under .220. Meanwhile, Ronnie Belliard, Andre Ethier, Ryan Theriot and Jamey Carroll are all batting .300 or better. Matt Kemp (.226) is the only Dodger regular batting less than .267 this month and he’s warming up. Derek Lowe is coming off a start in which he was bothered by cramps in his hamstring and right arm and should not be trusted because if his slider isn’t sharp he’s useless. Lowe is having another good year but his chances of an implosion are so much stronger than Ted Lilly’s, especially when you consider the current form of these two offenses. The Dodgers are going through a very rough stretch and its skid really defies logic. They’re getting very good starting pitching and they’re hitting the ball, yet they’re losing games. Blame an erratic pen for that. Ted Lilly has been a great addition but that should come as no surprise. Lilly has had success everywhere he’s been and since joining L.A. he’s allowed four runs and seven hits in 13 innings. Overall, Lilly has a 2.18 ERA in his last five starts and this could be his easiest assignment of them all. Play: Los Angeles +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.22 over ANAHEIM
The Angels a –1.30 favorite here is simply incorrect. Against southpaws the Angels see BB’s and they’re facing one here with nasty stuff. Brett Cecil has allowed one ER in four of his last six starts and that includes games against the Twins and Yankees in which he four-hit them both. Over that six-game stretch he has a 2.06 ERA and a BAA of .192. To make matters worse for the Angels, they’ve not seen this guy much at all and in fact, current Angels have just 25 AB’s against Cecil and combined they have two hits, both by Matsui. Everyone else is batting .000. The Jays remain hot with a 13-6 record over its last 19 games. They’re better vs right-handers (52-39) and will face one here in Earvin Santana. Santana is tough but he could also be a durability risk given the elbow and forearm problems that have plagued him. His skills also may be reflecting that risk. His BPV** (see bottom of this page for explanation of BPV) by month, starting in May: 94, 57, 42 and he’s been absolutely crushed in two of his last three starts. Just like last night, the Angels have no advantage here and the Jays chances of winning are actually better than the Angels chances. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.87 over TAMPA BAY
The Orioles remain very warm and after beating the Rays 5-0 last night they’re now 9-2 since Buck Showalter took over. Incredible. The O’s are having fun for the first time all season and will send out the very underrated Brian Matusz. Matusz was a top prospect and got his first major-league experience last season in which he displayed very good control. That's an awfully good place to start. This season he’s had his bumps for sure but when the team you pitch for loses almost every game, it’s so tough to build any confidence. Since the arrival of Showalter everyone is feeling better. Matusz now has two quality starts in a row, allowing two runs in 12 innings combined over that span. He’s had a rock solid 63 BPV the first time through a lineup, and an electric 121 BPV the second time through. It's the third time a lineup sees him that has given him fits but he’ll learn to make adjustments. Weigh his electric skill flashes and a big tag more heavily than his periodic struggles. This kid can pitch and he’ll face a Rays team that is last in the majors this month with a combined .206 BA. The Rays will also send its worst starter to the mound in Andy Sonnastine, who is filling in until Jeff Niemann and/or Wade Davis returns. Sonnastine went 6-9 last season with a 6.77 ERA. He’s a soft-tosser with very little margin for error. He’s pitched solely out of relief this year and while his numbers are decent, starting is a whole different animal. He’s never had success as a starter and he’s also very prone to the long ball, as his nine jacks in 54 IP this year will attest to. In his career in 73 games as a starter, Sonnastine has an ERA of 5.45 and offers up absolutely nothing as a 2-1 favorite. Yeah, the Rays can win here but what we have is a sweet tag on the resurgent O’s with the better pitcher against a team that is hitting nothing these days. Big overlay. Play: Baltimore +1.87 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
