MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 82-75 (+173.25 Units)
Tuesday, August 17
San Francisco Giants ML +135 (10 Units)
We should be in for a good one. Both teams are currently tied for the National League Wild Card but the sense of urgency is a lot bigger with the Giants who are now 4.5 games back San Diego in the NL West compared to the Phillies who are only 2.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East. The Giants are coming off a series loss to San Diego at home and again the urgency is a lot more present in this clubhouse than in the Phillies clubhouse because they at least know both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are going to be around in September for the drive to the playoffs. Barry Zito is on the mound for the Giants in this one and the team is 3-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.08. Roy Oswalt gets yet another chances to prove to the Phillies faithful that he is worthy of their deadline day trade. Oswalt has also been tremendous in his last three starts but is getting less run support than Zito at 2.7 runs per game compared to 3.3 runs per game for Zito. The Giants are too consistent a ball club to lose this kind of game as they are 11-2 in their last 13 games coming off a loss. They are also 9-2 in their last 11 games coming off a game where they score 2 or less runs, 17-8 in their last 25 games versus a right handed starter and 8-2 in Barry Zito's last 10 starts versus NL East opponents. It's very rare that I go against the Phillies at home but they are due for an emotional letdown after that series win over the Mets in New York. The Giants are 14-5 this season in Game 1 coming of a series coming off a loss and I think Zito pitches well enough for the Giants to tag a Philadelphia bullpen that has an ERA of 5.67 in their last 10 games.
Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 11-2 in their last 13 games coming off a loss.
San Francisco 4, Philadelphia 2
Boston Red Sox ML -130 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Take a look at the standings and you'll see that despite being the most injury prone and riddled team in Major League Baseball this season, the Boston Red Sox are still only 5.0 games back of the AL East Division lead and 5.0 games back of the American League Wild Card. Now that they are getting most of their starters back for the home stretch, this is definitely a team to watch out for if they can string together some wins. All of this after the Red Sox blew a three game sweep of the Blue Jays and then lost two of three in Texas on the weekend. Seeing how the Rays and Yankees don't want to win either, there is still a sense of hope on this team and it begins tonight. The Angels are coming off a series loss to the Toronto Blue Jays and their playoff hopes are all but gone. This is a great pitchers dual tonight as both starting pitchers are 2-0 in their last three starts and have been near perfect for their teams. Having said that I'd rather back Clay Buchholz because the Red Sox are 15-5 in his 20 starts this season and 12-3 in his 15 night time starts. Jered Weaver has been tremendous this season as well but the difference between the two is that Buchholz gets 6.67 runs of support per game the last three starts while Weaver gets only 3.33 runs of support per start in those games. Weaver has not pitched at Fenway in more than two years now and his career numbers here are horrendous. The Angels have been good against right handed starters but they are only 5-15 in their last 20 road games, they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are 1-6 in Jered Weaver's last seven road starts versus a team with a winning record. Boston is 9-0 in Clay Buccholz's last nine starts versus a team with a winning record and they are 13-3 in his last 16 Game 1's of a series. You can't go wrong betting on the Red Sox who have won 24 of Clay Buchholz's last 31 starts overall. That's incredible. Boston is 7-0 against the Angels this season and scored 36 runs against the Angels in a four game set back in May. Red Sox are my PLAY OF THE MONTH!
Trend of the Game: Boston is 9-0 in Clay Buchholz's last nine starts versus a team with a winning record.
Boston 6, LA Angels 1
Tampa Bay Rays ML -140 (10 Units)
There is a reason the price tag is so high on the Rays in this game and that reason is that this team has momentum. Right now they are in a tie for top spot in the AL East with the slumping Yankees and there is no doubt in my mind the Rays are smelling blood and willing to take advantage. Texas has absolutely no sense of urgency to win games because they sit pretty at the top of the AL West and do not need to win games right now (they are 8.0 games ahead of the Angels who now have to play a series against Boston). The Rays rallied to win the opener of this series scoring 4 runs off Cliff Lee in the 8th inning yesterday and that alone should be a huge momentum boost for this team. Nelson Cruz and Michael Young are out of the lineup for the Rangers tonight and although Tommy Hunter, who is 9-1 on the season is on the mound for the AL West leaders, he has an ERA of 8.76 in his last three starts with a WHIP of 2.03 and has allowed 22 hits in only 12.1 innings pitched. Matt Garza has been lights out his last three starts for Tampa Bay despite being 0-2 in those starts, recording an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 0.97. Hunter's one and only loss came on the road earlier this season where his WHIP on the road is 1.34. The Rays love having Matt Garza on the mound at home where they are 8-3 in his 11 home starts as they are averaging 5.0 runs per home start for Garza. That king of run support is going to take this team far if he can pitch the way he has pitched recently. This is a spot I have used to bet on Texas all season long. They are tremendous coming off a loss the game before and tremendous in the second game of a series after losing the opener. Having said that, injuries and momentum will play a big part in this game. Tampa Bay struggled all season to win at home but now they have won 19 of their last 26 home games. They are 10-2 in Matt Garza's last 12 starts on 5+ days of rest, they have won 19 of his last 26 home starts overall and have won 15 of his last 22 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. Don't forget that Texas has always had a miserable time trying to win games in Texas going 2-8 in their last 10 visits here and I don't see any of that changing with the Rays looking to finally win a game for Matt Garza. Tampa Bay needs to win to keep up in the AL East and I don't see them losing this.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 2-8 in their last 10 games played in Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay 6, Texas 3
Minnesota Twins ML -116 (10 Units)
This is the only play. Based on how these two teams have played in recent weeks and based on where the season is going for both teams, it's imperative to keep backing the Twins until they give reason to go against them. Minnesota is something like 17-4 in their last 21 games overall and they are the hottest team in Major League Baseball since mid-July. They are 36-20 at home this season and coming off a home series sweep of the Oakland Athletics on the weekend where they allowed only five runs total. The White Sox on the other hand came off that season crushing series home loss to the White Sox last week and lost another home series this time to the Detroit Tigers. You would think going on the road might change things but they are only 30-29 away from home and this is going to be a tough game. On the mound for the White Sox is John Danks who was brilliant in his last start against the Twins, a 7-1 home win last week, but his career numbers against Minnesota are horrendous. He allowed 6 ER's in his last start in this stadium and has admitted that he hates pitching against this team for multiple reasons. The Twins are well aware that if they can get rid of Danks early in this game, the White Sox bullpen is atrocious with their 5.93 ERA over the course of the last 10 games and with JJ Putz blowing consecutive saves. Scott Baker gets the ball for Minnesota and he has been tremendous against good teams at home. Some of his recent home starts have seen him completely shut down both Tampa Bay and Colorado in this ball park and the Twins are 3-0 in his last three starts where his ERA is 3.26 and his WHIP is 1.24 while getting 6.0 runs of support per game in those starts. He is 7-3 at home this season and has pitched a lot better in night games than day games. Baker has faced the White Sox twice in 2010, both times on the road, and yet the team is still 2-0 in those starts. Make no mistake about it, Chicago has been tremendous coming off an off day and in Game 1 of a series but this is different. They are now 1-4 in their last five road games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have lost four of their last five games versus right handed starters. Minnesota loves playing against lefties and are now 6-1 in their last seven games versus left handed starters. The Twins are the hottest team in baseball right now, they are 4-0 in Scott Baker's last four starts, they are 6-1 in his last seven starts versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have won 14 of his last 19 home starts. This is a series that is going to determine the fate of the Chicago White Sox once and for all and nobody would like more to end their season than the Minnesota Twins. They have been too good and this price is too good to pass up. Chicago is only 1-6 in John Dank's last seven starts in Minnesota and they have won only 6 of their last 26 played in this city. This is not a good spot for the White Sox.
Trend of the Game: White Sox are 1-6 in John Dank's last seven starts in Minnesota
Minnesota 7, White Sox 4
also playing...
Cincinnati Reds ML -109 (10 Units)
Toronto Blue Jays ML +103 (10 Units)
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Tuesday, August 17
San Francisco Giants ML +135 (10 Units)
We should be in for a good one. Both teams are currently tied for the National League Wild Card but the sense of urgency is a lot bigger with the Giants who are now 4.5 games back San Diego in the NL West compared to the Phillies who are only 2.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East. The Giants are coming off a series loss to San Diego at home and again the urgency is a lot more present in this clubhouse than in the Phillies clubhouse because they at least know both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are going to be around in September for the drive to the playoffs. Barry Zito is on the mound for the Giants in this one and the team is 3-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.08. Roy Oswalt gets yet another chances to prove to the Phillies faithful that he is worthy of their deadline day trade. Oswalt has also been tremendous in his last three starts but is getting less run support than Zito at 2.7 runs per game compared to 3.3 runs per game for Zito. The Giants are too consistent a ball club to lose this kind of game as they are 11-2 in their last 13 games coming off a loss. They are also 9-2 in their last 11 games coming off a game where they score 2 or less runs, 17-8 in their last 25 games versus a right handed starter and 8-2 in Barry Zito's last 10 starts versus NL East opponents. It's very rare that I go against the Phillies at home but they are due for an emotional letdown after that series win over the Mets in New York. The Giants are 14-5 this season in Game 1 coming of a series coming off a loss and I think Zito pitches well enough for the Giants to tag a Philadelphia bullpen that has an ERA of 5.67 in their last 10 games.
Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 11-2 in their last 13 games coming off a loss.
San Francisco 4, Philadelphia 2
Boston Red Sox ML -130 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Take a look at the standings and you'll see that despite being the most injury prone and riddled team in Major League Baseball this season, the Boston Red Sox are still only 5.0 games back of the AL East Division lead and 5.0 games back of the American League Wild Card. Now that they are getting most of their starters back for the home stretch, this is definitely a team to watch out for if they can string together some wins. All of this after the Red Sox blew a three game sweep of the Blue Jays and then lost two of three in Texas on the weekend. Seeing how the Rays and Yankees don't want to win either, there is still a sense of hope on this team and it begins tonight. The Angels are coming off a series loss to the Toronto Blue Jays and their playoff hopes are all but gone. This is a great pitchers dual tonight as both starting pitchers are 2-0 in their last three starts and have been near perfect for their teams. Having said that I'd rather back Clay Buchholz because the Red Sox are 15-5 in his 20 starts this season and 12-3 in his 15 night time starts. Jered Weaver has been tremendous this season as well but the difference between the two is that Buchholz gets 6.67 runs of support per game the last three starts while Weaver gets only 3.33 runs of support per start in those games. Weaver has not pitched at Fenway in more than two years now and his career numbers here are horrendous. The Angels have been good against right handed starters but they are only 5-15 in their last 20 road games, they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are 1-6 in Jered Weaver's last seven road starts versus a team with a winning record. Boston is 9-0 in Clay Buccholz's last nine starts versus a team with a winning record and they are 13-3 in his last 16 Game 1's of a series. You can't go wrong betting on the Red Sox who have won 24 of Clay Buchholz's last 31 starts overall. That's incredible. Boston is 7-0 against the Angels this season and scored 36 runs against the Angels in a four game set back in May. Red Sox are my PLAY OF THE MONTH!
Trend of the Game: Boston is 9-0 in Clay Buchholz's last nine starts versus a team with a winning record.
Boston 6, LA Angels 1
Tampa Bay Rays ML -140 (10 Units)
There is a reason the price tag is so high on the Rays in this game and that reason is that this team has momentum. Right now they are in a tie for top spot in the AL East with the slumping Yankees and there is no doubt in my mind the Rays are smelling blood and willing to take advantage. Texas has absolutely no sense of urgency to win games because they sit pretty at the top of the AL West and do not need to win games right now (they are 8.0 games ahead of the Angels who now have to play a series against Boston). The Rays rallied to win the opener of this series scoring 4 runs off Cliff Lee in the 8th inning yesterday and that alone should be a huge momentum boost for this team. Nelson Cruz and Michael Young are out of the lineup for the Rangers tonight and although Tommy Hunter, who is 9-1 on the season is on the mound for the AL West leaders, he has an ERA of 8.76 in his last three starts with a WHIP of 2.03 and has allowed 22 hits in only 12.1 innings pitched. Matt Garza has been lights out his last three starts for Tampa Bay despite being 0-2 in those starts, recording an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 0.97. Hunter's one and only loss came on the road earlier this season where his WHIP on the road is 1.34. The Rays love having Matt Garza on the mound at home where they are 8-3 in his 11 home starts as they are averaging 5.0 runs per home start for Garza. That king of run support is going to take this team far if he can pitch the way he has pitched recently. This is a spot I have used to bet on Texas all season long. They are tremendous coming off a loss the game before and tremendous in the second game of a series after losing the opener. Having said that, injuries and momentum will play a big part in this game. Tampa Bay struggled all season to win at home but now they have won 19 of their last 26 home games. They are 10-2 in Matt Garza's last 12 starts on 5+ days of rest, they have won 19 of his last 26 home starts overall and have won 15 of his last 22 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. Don't forget that Texas has always had a miserable time trying to win games in Texas going 2-8 in their last 10 visits here and I don't see any of that changing with the Rays looking to finally win a game for Matt Garza. Tampa Bay needs to win to keep up in the AL East and I don't see them losing this.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 2-8 in their last 10 games played in Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay 6, Texas 3
Minnesota Twins ML -116 (10 Units)
This is the only play. Based on how these two teams have played in recent weeks and based on where the season is going for both teams, it's imperative to keep backing the Twins until they give reason to go against them. Minnesota is something like 17-4 in their last 21 games overall and they are the hottest team in Major League Baseball since mid-July. They are 36-20 at home this season and coming off a home series sweep of the Oakland Athletics on the weekend where they allowed only five runs total. The White Sox on the other hand came off that season crushing series home loss to the White Sox last week and lost another home series this time to the Detroit Tigers. You would think going on the road might change things but they are only 30-29 away from home and this is going to be a tough game. On the mound for the White Sox is John Danks who was brilliant in his last start against the Twins, a 7-1 home win last week, but his career numbers against Minnesota are horrendous. He allowed 6 ER's in his last start in this stadium and has admitted that he hates pitching against this team for multiple reasons. The Twins are well aware that if they can get rid of Danks early in this game, the White Sox bullpen is atrocious with their 5.93 ERA over the course of the last 10 games and with JJ Putz blowing consecutive saves. Scott Baker gets the ball for Minnesota and he has been tremendous against good teams at home. Some of his recent home starts have seen him completely shut down both Tampa Bay and Colorado in this ball park and the Twins are 3-0 in his last three starts where his ERA is 3.26 and his WHIP is 1.24 while getting 6.0 runs of support per game in those starts. He is 7-3 at home this season and has pitched a lot better in night games than day games. Baker has faced the White Sox twice in 2010, both times on the road, and yet the team is still 2-0 in those starts. Make no mistake about it, Chicago has been tremendous coming off an off day and in Game 1 of a series but this is different. They are now 1-4 in their last five road games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have lost four of their last five games versus right handed starters. Minnesota loves playing against lefties and are now 6-1 in their last seven games versus left handed starters. The Twins are the hottest team in baseball right now, they are 4-0 in Scott Baker's last four starts, they are 6-1 in his last seven starts versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have won 14 of his last 19 home starts. This is a series that is going to determine the fate of the Chicago White Sox once and for all and nobody would like more to end their season than the Minnesota Twins. They have been too good and this price is too good to pass up. Chicago is only 1-6 in John Dank's last seven starts in Minnesota and they have won only 6 of their last 26 played in this city. This is not a good spot for the White Sox.
Trend of the Game: White Sox are 1-6 in John Dank's last seven starts in Minnesota
Minnesota 7, White Sox 4
also playing...
Cincinnati Reds ML -109 (10 Units)
Toronto Blue Jays ML +103 (10 Units)
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