Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.98 Units
Last 30 Days 36 44 1 +3.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 171 211 3 +4.46 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PHILADELPHIA –1 +1.00 over San Francisco
If you don’t have an account at Pinnacle than you may not have the luxury of being able to lay a single run and therefore laying 1½-runs would be recommended. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito and despite some decent numbers, Zito remains one of the biggest impostors in the game and this park is unlikely to be as friendly as the others. Zito is 0-4 with a 5.73 ERA in eight road starts since a 3-2 win at Florida on May 5 and he has one of the highest LOB% in the league, which stands at 78%. His xERA is 4.57, which is more than a full run higher than his actual 3.44 ERA. He also has a very low groundball rate of 36% and what we have here is some unsustainable stats that have been sticking for too long. This is a serious FLUKE ALERT and it’s aimed at Zito. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt had a 6-12 record with the Astros this year but that was the product of the team he was pitching for, not his own skills. Oswalt has been his vintage self this year with great skills, great control and a 105 BPV. In his first start with the Phillies he was hit pretty good but followed that up with two straight dominant outings in which he gave up eight hits and two earned runs over 13.1 innings. He also induced 25 groundballs to just 12 flyballs over those two games and faces a struggling Giants squad. San Fran has scored just nine runs and batted .175 in its last five road games. They’ve now lost four of its last five on the road and overall, over its last 12 games, the Giants have been held to three runs or less eight times. The Phillies have won 18 of its past 23 overall and 15 of its last 17 at home and with a huge advantage on the hill and with Chase Utley and/or Ron Howard expected back, this one has easy win written all over it. Play: Philadelphia –1 +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON +1.53 over NY Mets
The Mets got a much-needed win last night and they beat the red-hot Wandy Rodriguez in the process. That’s a confidence boost but let’s not get too carried away. They still had scored just one run going to the ninth and they’re still batting a puny .212 over its last 14 games. Nelson Figueroa was claimed off of waivers from the Phillies just a few weeks ago. He made 17 starts in Triple-A last year, as well as three this season. During that time, he has recorded a 2.06 ERA and has allowed just six home runs in 131 innings. Figueroa has shown some respectable stats for the second consecutive season and while his upside is limited and he’s far from a sure thing, the value here on the Astros at home is too good to pass up on. Johan Santana continues to defy logic. His groundball rate is awful at 32% and there’s a good chance those balls caught at Citi Field will find gaps or the fences here. Santana has thrown a ton of pitches over the last month and is coming off a complete game, four-hit shutout over the Rockies. He also has that civil lawsuit hanging over his head and while he surely can win again in this spot, the fact is, he’s way overvalued pitching for a laboring Mets offense. Play: Houston +1.53 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.06 over OAKLAND
Brandon Morrow and a very warm Jays team plus a tag against the A’s is very appealing indeed. All Morrow has done over his last two starts covering 14.1 innings, is strikeout 26 and walk four. Morrow is wickedly good and with nine days off between starts and with his confidence soaring, he could definitely dominate again. The Bluebirds keep on winning and they’re very simply a whole lot more dangerous than the A’s. Dallas Braden is having a very decent year but in no way is he even close to the skill level of Morrow. Braden's sub-4.00 ERA's in ’08 and ’09 were more the result of luck than skill, as he had xERA's of 4.52 and 4.77. This season, however, his xERA of 4.12 is much closer to his actual ERA. However, Braden is a low dominance pitcher so he doesn't have much room for error and it says here a correction is his numbers are forthcoming the rest of the way. Win or lose here, the Jays a pooch with its best pitcher going is way off target. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 36 44 1 +3.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 171 211 3 +4.46 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PHILADELPHIA –1 +1.00 over San Francisco
If you don’t have an account at Pinnacle than you may not have the luxury of being able to lay a single run and therefore laying 1½-runs would be recommended. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito and despite some decent numbers, Zito remains one of the biggest impostors in the game and this park is unlikely to be as friendly as the others. Zito is 0-4 with a 5.73 ERA in eight road starts since a 3-2 win at Florida on May 5 and he has one of the highest LOB% in the league, which stands at 78%. His xERA is 4.57, which is more than a full run higher than his actual 3.44 ERA. He also has a very low groundball rate of 36% and what we have here is some unsustainable stats that have been sticking for too long. This is a serious FLUKE ALERT and it’s aimed at Zito. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt had a 6-12 record with the Astros this year but that was the product of the team he was pitching for, not his own skills. Oswalt has been his vintage self this year with great skills, great control and a 105 BPV. In his first start with the Phillies he was hit pretty good but followed that up with two straight dominant outings in which he gave up eight hits and two earned runs over 13.1 innings. He also induced 25 groundballs to just 12 flyballs over those two games and faces a struggling Giants squad. San Fran has scored just nine runs and batted .175 in its last five road games. They’ve now lost four of its last five on the road and overall, over its last 12 games, the Giants have been held to three runs or less eight times. The Phillies have won 18 of its past 23 overall and 15 of its last 17 at home and with a huge advantage on the hill and with Chase Utley and/or Ron Howard expected back, this one has easy win written all over it. Play: Philadelphia –1 +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON +1.53 over NY Mets
The Mets got a much-needed win last night and they beat the red-hot Wandy Rodriguez in the process. That’s a confidence boost but let’s not get too carried away. They still had scored just one run going to the ninth and they’re still batting a puny .212 over its last 14 games. Nelson Figueroa was claimed off of waivers from the Phillies just a few weeks ago. He made 17 starts in Triple-A last year, as well as three this season. During that time, he has recorded a 2.06 ERA and has allowed just six home runs in 131 innings. Figueroa has shown some respectable stats for the second consecutive season and while his upside is limited and he’s far from a sure thing, the value here on the Astros at home is too good to pass up on. Johan Santana continues to defy logic. His groundball rate is awful at 32% and there’s a good chance those balls caught at Citi Field will find gaps or the fences here. Santana has thrown a ton of pitches over the last month and is coming off a complete game, four-hit shutout over the Rockies. He also has that civil lawsuit hanging over his head and while he surely can win again in this spot, the fact is, he’s way overvalued pitching for a laboring Mets offense. Play: Houston +1.53 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.06 over OAKLAND
Brandon Morrow and a very warm Jays team plus a tag against the A’s is very appealing indeed. All Morrow has done over his last two starts covering 14.1 innings, is strikeout 26 and walk four. Morrow is wickedly good and with nine days off between starts and with his confidence soaring, he could definitely dominate again. The Bluebirds keep on winning and they’re very simply a whole lot more dangerous than the A’s. Dallas Braden is having a very decent year but in no way is he even close to the skill level of Morrow. Braden's sub-4.00 ERA's in ’08 and ’09 were more the result of luck than skill, as he had xERA's of 4.52 and 4.77. This season, however, his xERA of 4.12 is much closer to his actual ERA. However, Braden is a low dominance pitcher so he doesn't have much room for error and it says here a correction is his numbers are forthcoming the rest of the way. Win or lose here, the Jays a pooch with its best pitcher going is way off target. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
