How wise guys read schedule strength
Chad Millman
A couple of weeks ago, on this podcast with Teddy Covers, we were talking about NFL season win total bets. Teddy explained that his formula for figuring out strength of schedule -- one of the key factors in deciding whether or not a team will exceed expectations -- is dramatically different than how established outlets like ESPN calculate it.
The MSM takes the cumulative wins of a team's opponents, converts it to a winning percentage and then ranks the records 1-32. For example, according to ESPN.com, the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans have the most difficult schedules in the NFL this season. Their opponents won 140 combined games last season and had a cumulative win percentage of .547. The Arizona Cardinals have the easiest schedule.
But that's simple math -- and as useful when making predictions as a crystal ball (unless the Mayans made it). That formula does not account for any improvements (draft, free agency, coaching changes) or decreases (lost free agents, coaching changes) in quality. It's ludicrous making decisions based on the widely accepted NFL strength of schedule.
If you're going to make your living gambling, you need more complex formulas that help you sleep at night.
<OFFER>
As Covers said on the pod, his examination requires a two-part process. First he re-evaluates every game from the previous season. Take the Green Bay Packers. They finished 11-5 and made the playoffs, a strong effort leading to lots of excitement for this year.
But Covers added up his power ratings for all of the Packers' opponents from last year -- week-to-week -- and determined that they actually had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Keep in mind, a wise guy's power ratings are amorphous; they constantly shift and change. When Green Bay played the Chicago Bears in Week 1, Chicago's power rating, according to Teddy, was 14. When the teams met again late in the season, the Bears were just a 10. By calculating the previous season's strength of schedule this way, Covers gets a truer sense of a team's challenges. The Bears were a lot different team early in the year than later.
Once he does this, he crosschecks a team's turnover margin, taking away credit from teams that show big numbers on the plus side and giving credit to teams that are deep in negative territory. Green Bay was plus-24.
"That makes me think they were a fraudulent 11-5," Covers says. "They played a weak schedule and had a turnover margin as high as it gets. To me, this is a team that overachieved last year. Now we have the start of a thought process that helps me evaluate them in this year's betting market."
Green Bay is one of those teams -- like the New York Jets -- that is getting a lot of hype this season. It opened at nine wins and is now listed at 10. The expectations from the public are that it will exceed this number.
Armed with that info, Covers employs phase two of his plan: Calculating this year's strength of schedule. Rather than just add up the wins for a team's opponents, he does his math Vegas-style. Each team's SOS is still based on its opponents' cumulative season win totals. But the numbers he adds up aren't last season's wins. They are this season's expected wins, based on what Vegas sports books are saying.
Let's look at Green Bay again. According to the MSM, the Packers have the 22nd-most difficult schedule this season. Here's how Covers broke it down:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Game</TH><TH>Opponent</TH><TH>Expected Wins According to Vegas</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>8.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>5.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>5.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>7.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>9.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>10.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>9.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>9.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>5.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>9.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>8.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Why trust the future expectations dictated by Vegas rather than the square math based on last season's records? "Because the lines Vegas puts out are usually pretty good. Bookmakers tend to make money out here."
This is what I love most about wise guys: They are unapologetically confident in their view of the sports world and completely eschew conventional wisdom. That is how they end up cashing in. And the rest of us just write (or read) about it. Everyone is saying the Pack are a team to beat, that they have an easy schedule and are primed to build on last year's success. Which is why Covers took them for under 10 wins and again at 9.5 for plus-money.
"They are playing a much tougher slate than last year and are still being overvalued," he says.
For fun, I asked Covers to give me his SOS breakdown, so I could compare it to the standard, widely accepted list most people use. He obliged. Here it is below, based on win percentages:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH colSpan=2>Teddy Covers' Wise Guy SOS</TH><TH colSpan=2>Widely Accepted NFL SOS</TH></TR><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>SOS</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>SOS</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1. Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>.531</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>.547</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2. Houston Texans</TD><TD>.526</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>.547</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3. Detroit Lions</TD><TD>.525</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>.543</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4. Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>.522</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>.539</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5. Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>.520</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>.535</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6. Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>.517</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>.531</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7. Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>.516</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>.527</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8. Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>.512</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>.523</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9. New York Giants</TD><TD>.512</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>.520</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10. Chicago Bears</TD><TD>.511</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>.516</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11. Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>.511</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>.516</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12. New England Patriots</TD><TD>.511</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>.508</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13. Washington Redskins</TD><TD>.509</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>.508</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14. Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>.507</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>.504</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15. Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>.505</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>.504</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16. Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>.504</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17. Denver Broncos</TD><TD>.501</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18. Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>.498</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19. Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>.498</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20. Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>.495</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>.496</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21. Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>.493</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>.492</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>.491</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>.488</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23. New York Jets</TD><TD>.491</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>.488</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24. Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>.486</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>.484</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25. Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>.485</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>.480</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26. Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>.480</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>.477</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27. New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>.481</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>.469</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28. St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>.478</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>.457</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29. Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>.476</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>.453</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30. Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>.471</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>.453</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31. San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>.468</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>.449</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31. San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>.468</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>.445</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Chad Millman
A couple of weeks ago, on this podcast with Teddy Covers, we were talking about NFL season win total bets. Teddy explained that his formula for figuring out strength of schedule -- one of the key factors in deciding whether or not a team will exceed expectations -- is dramatically different than how established outlets like ESPN calculate it.
The MSM takes the cumulative wins of a team's opponents, converts it to a winning percentage and then ranks the records 1-32. For example, according to ESPN.com, the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans have the most difficult schedules in the NFL this season. Their opponents won 140 combined games last season and had a cumulative win percentage of .547. The Arizona Cardinals have the easiest schedule.
But that's simple math -- and as useful when making predictions as a crystal ball (unless the Mayans made it). That formula does not account for any improvements (draft, free agency, coaching changes) or decreases (lost free agents, coaching changes) in quality. It's ludicrous making decisions based on the widely accepted NFL strength of schedule.
If you're going to make your living gambling, you need more complex formulas that help you sleep at night.
<OFFER>
As Covers said on the pod, his examination requires a two-part process. First he re-evaluates every game from the previous season. Take the Green Bay Packers. They finished 11-5 and made the playoffs, a strong effort leading to lots of excitement for this year.
But Covers added up his power ratings for all of the Packers' opponents from last year -- week-to-week -- and determined that they actually had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Keep in mind, a wise guy's power ratings are amorphous; they constantly shift and change. When Green Bay played the Chicago Bears in Week 1, Chicago's power rating, according to Teddy, was 14. When the teams met again late in the season, the Bears were just a 10. By calculating the previous season's strength of schedule this way, Covers gets a truer sense of a team's challenges. The Bears were a lot different team early in the year than later.
Once he does this, he crosschecks a team's turnover margin, taking away credit from teams that show big numbers on the plus side and giving credit to teams that are deep in negative territory. Green Bay was plus-24.
"That makes me think they were a fraudulent 11-5," Covers says. "They played a weak schedule and had a turnover margin as high as it gets. To me, this is a team that overachieved last year. Now we have the start of a thought process that helps me evaluate them in this year's betting market."
Green Bay is one of those teams -- like the New York Jets -- that is getting a lot of hype this season. It opened at nine wins and is now listed at 10. The expectations from the public are that it will exceed this number.
Armed with that info, Covers employs phase two of his plan: Calculating this year's strength of schedule. Rather than just add up the wins for a team's opponents, he does his math Vegas-style. Each team's SOS is still based on its opponents' cumulative season win totals. But the numbers he adds up aren't last season's wins. They are this season's expected wins, based on what Vegas sports books are saying.
Let's look at Green Bay again. According to the MSM, the Packers have the 22nd-most difficult schedule this season. Here's how Covers broke it down:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Game</TH><TH>Opponent</TH><TH>Expected Wins According to Vegas</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>8.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>5.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>5.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>7.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>9.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>10.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>9.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>9.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>5.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>9.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>8.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Why trust the future expectations dictated by Vegas rather than the square math based on last season's records? "Because the lines Vegas puts out are usually pretty good. Bookmakers tend to make money out here."
This is what I love most about wise guys: They are unapologetically confident in their view of the sports world and completely eschew conventional wisdom. That is how they end up cashing in. And the rest of us just write (or read) about it. Everyone is saying the Pack are a team to beat, that they have an easy schedule and are primed to build on last year's success. Which is why Covers took them for under 10 wins and again at 9.5 for plus-money.
"They are playing a much tougher slate than last year and are still being overvalued," he says.
For fun, I asked Covers to give me his SOS breakdown, so I could compare it to the standard, widely accepted list most people use. He obliged. Here it is below, based on win percentages:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH colSpan=2>Teddy Covers' Wise Guy SOS</TH><TH colSpan=2>Widely Accepted NFL SOS</TH></TR><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>SOS</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>SOS</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1. Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>.531</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>.547</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2. Houston Texans</TD><TD>.526</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>.547</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3. Detroit Lions</TD><TD>.525</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>.543</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4. Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>.522</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>.539</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5. Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>.520</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>.535</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6. Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>.517</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>.531</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7. Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>.516</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>.527</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8. Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>.512</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>.523</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9. New York Giants</TD><TD>.512</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>.520</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10. Chicago Bears</TD><TD>.511</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>.516</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11. Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>.511</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>.516</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12. New England Patriots</TD><TD>.511</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>.508</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13. Washington Redskins</TD><TD>.509</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>.508</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14. Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>.507</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>.504</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15. Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>.505</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>.504</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16. Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>.504</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17. Denver Broncos</TD><TD>.501</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18. Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>.498</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19. Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>.498</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>.500</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20. Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>.495</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>.496</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21. Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>.493</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>.492</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>.491</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>.488</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23. New York Jets</TD><TD>.491</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>.488</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24. Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>.486</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>.484</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25. Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>.485</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>.480</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26. Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>.480</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>.477</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27. New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>.481</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>.469</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28. St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>.478</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>.457</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29. Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>.476</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>.453</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30. Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>.471</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>.453</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31. San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>.468</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>.449</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31. San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>.468</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>.445</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
