Yesterday 2 1 0 +3.06 Units
Last 30 Days 38 41 1 +14.20 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 173 212 3 +7.52 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Seattle +1.38 over BALTIMORE
The Orioles a 7½-5 favorite or close to it is ludicrous. Here’s a team that has had one good run all year and it’s over. They’re 42-78 and 31½ games out of first. This team was out of it in April and they’re back to its losing ways after that 9-2 run when Showalter took over. Jeremy Guthrie is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts and that definitely has influence on this line. However, Guthrie's recent second-half turnaround is not supported by his skills, indicating this apparent "roll" is in fact a fluke. The second-half skills actually show decline from first half levels. Guthrie's yawning ERA/xERA gap (3.88/4.85) is likely to eventually narrow, which could result in an unwelcome ERA spike. While he is pitching somewhat better than last season, Guthrie's skills have not returned to 2007-2008 levels. Declining numbers continues a four-year trend, and second-half numbers are even lower. Incidentally, current Mariner batters are 33-97 against Guthrie for a BA of .340. David Pauley has shown some remarkable consistency for two straight years. He’s consistently average and he’s a risk to get smoked every time he takes the hill. However, he’s also very capable of keeping the M’s in the game and he’s not the one laying –1.48. The Mariners are actually playing some decent ball right now with six wins in its last nine games and all the value in this one is on them. Play: Seattle +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 38 41 1 +14.20 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 173 212 3 +7.52 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Seattle +1.38 over BALTIMORE
The Orioles a 7½-5 favorite or close to it is ludicrous. Here’s a team that has had one good run all year and it’s over. They’re 42-78 and 31½ games out of first. This team was out of it in April and they’re back to its losing ways after that 9-2 run when Showalter took over. Jeremy Guthrie is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts and that definitely has influence on this line. However, Guthrie's recent second-half turnaround is not supported by his skills, indicating this apparent "roll" is in fact a fluke. The second-half skills actually show decline from first half levels. Guthrie's yawning ERA/xERA gap (3.88/4.85) is likely to eventually narrow, which could result in an unwelcome ERA spike. While he is pitching somewhat better than last season, Guthrie's skills have not returned to 2007-2008 levels. Declining numbers continues a four-year trend, and second-half numbers are even lower. Incidentally, current Mariner batters are 33-97 against Guthrie for a BA of .340. David Pauley has shown some remarkable consistency for two straight years. He’s consistently average and he’s a risk to get smoked every time he takes the hill. However, he’s also very capable of keeping the M’s in the game and he’s not the one laying –1.48. The Mariners are actually playing some decent ball right now with six wins in its last nine games and all the value in this one is on them. Play: Seattle +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
