Yesterday 1-0-0 +2.76 Units
Last 30 Days 37-38-1 +17.60 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 174-212-3 +10.28 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON –1.04 over NY Mets
One has to believe that Bud Norris has a much better chance of pitching deeper into this game than Pat Misch and that’s significant because both pens are running on fumes after last night’s marathon. Misch has made one start this season and while it was a decent one, don’t put too much emphasis on it. At the age of 29, Misch is pretty much a career minor-leaguer and his time in the big leagues has been unimpressive at best. Last season he went 3-4 with a 4.48 ERA in 62 IP for NYM/SF. That was discouraging and his performances continue to free-fall. When his control waffles, he's tossing batting practice and he’s no better vs LHB, so he can't even fall back on situational work. He got very lucky last week vs the Phillies with a 90% strand rate, a 1.67 WHIP and he struck out just two batters. Incidentally, the Astros are so much better when facing a lefty, as their 18-14 record will attest to. Bud Norris should be back on your radar if he's not there already. The potential to dominate is there and he also showed a strong groundball tilt in July (52%). Norris has to develop another pitch because he’s basically a two-pitch hurler and that’s why he runs into trouble. However, the Mets offense is laboring badly and there’s a great chance David Wright will sit this one out after being pulled in the 12th inning last night because of dehydration and light-headedness. Regardless of whether Wright sits or goes, the price on the Astros is a cheap one. Play: Houston –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Washington +1.92 over ATLANTA
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. The Braves picked up Derek Lee but he’ll stay in Chicago and wait for the Braves to arrive there for the weekend series. A big acquisition usually doesn’t sit too well for the first few days because there are guys in the dugout that have been playing their butts off and now this move takes away their playing time. It’s not like the team was slumping either, as they’ve won four in a row and seven of eight and that makes the part-timers feel even worse. This is absolutely a vulnerable spot for Atlanta. Derek Lowe’s ERA has been around 4.50 all year. He’s capable of an implosion at any time because he relies heavily on one pitch and if that pitch isn’t working, he’s in big trouble. It usually is working well but as a 2-1 favorite, it’s too big a risk to take. Let’s also not forget that he’s 37 and he rarely makes it past the sixth inning. Lowe has a .276 BAA, a below average WHIP of 1.41 and he’s 0-2 vs the Nats this year with a 6.75 ERA. The terrible start to the season landed John Lannan back in AA-Harrisburg, where the Nationals hoped he would regain some confidence. What he needed to regain was the ability to command his pitches, as a greater number of walks than strikeouts is not a recipe for success. In three games back since the demotion, Lannan has walked just four batters in 18 innings and has an ERA of 3.00. He also has a high groundball rate of 49% and he also has his confidence back. The bottom line here is that there’s too much value against Lowe to ignore this one, as the Nats have a very legit shot at a win here. Play: Washington +1.92 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 37-38-1 +17.60 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 174-212-3 +10.28 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON –1.04 over NY Mets
One has to believe that Bud Norris has a much better chance of pitching deeper into this game than Pat Misch and that’s significant because both pens are running on fumes after last night’s marathon. Misch has made one start this season and while it was a decent one, don’t put too much emphasis on it. At the age of 29, Misch is pretty much a career minor-leaguer and his time in the big leagues has been unimpressive at best. Last season he went 3-4 with a 4.48 ERA in 62 IP for NYM/SF. That was discouraging and his performances continue to free-fall. When his control waffles, he's tossing batting practice and he’s no better vs LHB, so he can't even fall back on situational work. He got very lucky last week vs the Phillies with a 90% strand rate, a 1.67 WHIP and he struck out just two batters. Incidentally, the Astros are so much better when facing a lefty, as their 18-14 record will attest to. Bud Norris should be back on your radar if he's not there already. The potential to dominate is there and he also showed a strong groundball tilt in July (52%). Norris has to develop another pitch because he’s basically a two-pitch hurler and that’s why he runs into trouble. However, the Mets offense is laboring badly and there’s a great chance David Wright will sit this one out after being pulled in the 12th inning last night because of dehydration and light-headedness. Regardless of whether Wright sits or goes, the price on the Astros is a cheap one. Play: Houston –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Washington +1.92 over ATLANTA
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. The Braves picked up Derek Lee but he’ll stay in Chicago and wait for the Braves to arrive there for the weekend series. A big acquisition usually doesn’t sit too well for the first few days because there are guys in the dugout that have been playing their butts off and now this move takes away their playing time. It’s not like the team was slumping either, as they’ve won four in a row and seven of eight and that makes the part-timers feel even worse. This is absolutely a vulnerable spot for Atlanta. Derek Lowe’s ERA has been around 4.50 all year. He’s capable of an implosion at any time because he relies heavily on one pitch and if that pitch isn’t working, he’s in big trouble. It usually is working well but as a 2-1 favorite, it’s too big a risk to take. Let’s also not forget that he’s 37 and he rarely makes it past the sixth inning. Lowe has a .276 BAA, a below average WHIP of 1.41 and he’s 0-2 vs the Nats this year with a 6.75 ERA. The terrible start to the season landed John Lannan back in AA-Harrisburg, where the Nationals hoped he would regain some confidence. What he needed to regain was the ability to command his pitches, as a greater number of walks than strikeouts is not a recipe for success. In three games back since the demotion, Lannan has walked just four batters in 18 innings and has an ERA of 3.00. He also has a high groundball rate of 49% and he also has his confidence back. The bottom line here is that there’s too much value against Lowe to ignore this one, as the Nats have a very legit shot at a win here. Play: Washington +1.92 (Risking 2 units).
