Yesterday 2-0-0 +5.84 Units
Last 30 Days 37-36-1 +21.74 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 176-212-3 +16.12 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
ARIZONA –1½ +1.64 over Colorado
The D-Backs really cooled off after a good run but at least they cooled off against a division leader. Prior to getting swept by the Reds, the Snakes were very warm with eight wins in 12 games and they could certainly get back on track against this struggling visitor. The Rocks are laboring badly at the dish. In six of it’s last nine games they had a BA of .129, .133, .176, .182, .200 and .071. They were shut out in four of those six games. In its just completed three-game set in L.A., the Rocks scored three times and they’ll play tonight without its best hitter, Carlos Gonzalez. Esmil Rogers is fooling nobody. This guy has a light frame (150 lbs) and he throws way too many strikes. On 0-2 counts he’ll fire one right down the middle. He’s appeared in just 15 games this season with four of those as a starter. In his four starts, two in early May and his last two appearances, Rogers has allowed 29 hits and 18 ER in 20 IP. On the road the league is hitting .341 off him and in his last two starts against Pittsburgh and Milwaukee his BAA was .340. Meanwhile, Ian Kennedy is 26 and the “elite prospect” talks he generated are coming back. An aneurysm in his throwing shoulder wiped out nearly the entire season last year and he’s bounced back strong this year. Kennedy has a BAA of just .236 and at Chase Field it’s even better at .230. He works efficiently and in fact, has thrown six and seven full innings in his last two starts and has thrown just 95 and 89 pitches respectively. This guy has nothing but upside and has a big time edge over Rogers. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA –1½ +1.47 over Houston
The Astros bats have really cooled off and in its four-game set with the Mets they managed to score just 10 runs and that includes five innings of extra play. It was an intense and very close four-game series and now they’ll travel to play in a ¾ empty stadium. They’ll also face a tough pitcher in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has a 2.97 ERA at home. He’s faced Cincinnati, Philly and San Fran in three of his last four starts and will take a big step down in class when facing the Astros. He threw a complete game one-hitter at San Fran and has struck out seven or more batters in five straight starts. In his last start at Great American Ballpark in Cinci, he went six full and allowed just five hits and two earned runs. Over his last nine starts he’s allowed just two bombs and he catches the Astros at the perfect time. There’s also a major FLUKE ALERT on J.A. Happ. Happ has been sidelined for most of this year with forearm soreness. His velocity didn't return during his rehab assignment, but he was brought back to PHI anyway. After his trade to HOU, it's becoming evident that Happ carries with him more risk than reward over the season's final six weeks. While his 3.38 ERA conjures up images of the sub-3.00 ERA he posted last year, it's a complete fluke. He has an 81% strand rate and a 4% HR/F. He also is an extreme flyball pitcher. If he continues to have control problems (27 walks and 27 K’s), they will become magnified once his HR/F normalizes, as those base runners will turn into earned runs quickly. Steer clear of Happ. Play: Florida –1½ +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON –1½ +1.17 over Toronto
The Jays steam may have run out after two tough losses in Oakland and this is about its worst matchup possible, that being facing a very tough southpaw and a team they can’t beat. The Red Sox lead the AL in OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.806) and they’ve hit Toronto hard this season, outscoring the Blue Jays, 76-49, in compiling nine wins in 12 games. Brett Cecil is a lefty and last season he lost effectiveness as the season wore on. A similar result could be in the cards this year. He was absolutely torched in his last game vs the Angels and the reports are his fastball topped off at just 85 MPH. His groundball rate is way down in his last five starts and that’s another sign of fatigue. John Lester needs no introduction. He’s as good as they come and the Jays are just 10-17 vs southpaws on the year. Lester had an electric July with a 54% groundball rate to go along with outstanding command. He’s dominated this Jays lineup many times and all signs point to another elite start and finish for Lester. Red Sox going away. Play: Boston –1½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 37-36-1 +21.74 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 176-212-3 +16.12 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
ARIZONA –1½ +1.64 over Colorado
The D-Backs really cooled off after a good run but at least they cooled off against a division leader. Prior to getting swept by the Reds, the Snakes were very warm with eight wins in 12 games and they could certainly get back on track against this struggling visitor. The Rocks are laboring badly at the dish. In six of it’s last nine games they had a BA of .129, .133, .176, .182, .200 and .071. They were shut out in four of those six games. In its just completed three-game set in L.A., the Rocks scored three times and they’ll play tonight without its best hitter, Carlos Gonzalez. Esmil Rogers is fooling nobody. This guy has a light frame (150 lbs) and he throws way too many strikes. On 0-2 counts he’ll fire one right down the middle. He’s appeared in just 15 games this season with four of those as a starter. In his four starts, two in early May and his last two appearances, Rogers has allowed 29 hits and 18 ER in 20 IP. On the road the league is hitting .341 off him and in his last two starts against Pittsburgh and Milwaukee his BAA was .340. Meanwhile, Ian Kennedy is 26 and the “elite prospect” talks he generated are coming back. An aneurysm in his throwing shoulder wiped out nearly the entire season last year and he’s bounced back strong this year. Kennedy has a BAA of just .236 and at Chase Field it’s even better at .230. He works efficiently and in fact, has thrown six and seven full innings in his last two starts and has thrown just 95 and 89 pitches respectively. This guy has nothing but upside and has a big time edge over Rogers. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA –1½ +1.47 over Houston
The Astros bats have really cooled off and in its four-game set with the Mets they managed to score just 10 runs and that includes five innings of extra play. It was an intense and very close four-game series and now they’ll travel to play in a ¾ empty stadium. They’ll also face a tough pitcher in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has a 2.97 ERA at home. He’s faced Cincinnati, Philly and San Fran in three of his last four starts and will take a big step down in class when facing the Astros. He threw a complete game one-hitter at San Fran and has struck out seven or more batters in five straight starts. In his last start at Great American Ballpark in Cinci, he went six full and allowed just five hits and two earned runs. Over his last nine starts he’s allowed just two bombs and he catches the Astros at the perfect time. There’s also a major FLUKE ALERT on J.A. Happ. Happ has been sidelined for most of this year with forearm soreness. His velocity didn't return during his rehab assignment, but he was brought back to PHI anyway. After his trade to HOU, it's becoming evident that Happ carries with him more risk than reward over the season's final six weeks. While his 3.38 ERA conjures up images of the sub-3.00 ERA he posted last year, it's a complete fluke. He has an 81% strand rate and a 4% HR/F. He also is an extreme flyball pitcher. If he continues to have control problems (27 walks and 27 K’s), they will become magnified once his HR/F normalizes, as those base runners will turn into earned runs quickly. Steer clear of Happ. Play: Florida –1½ +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON –1½ +1.17 over Toronto
The Jays steam may have run out after two tough losses in Oakland and this is about its worst matchup possible, that being facing a very tough southpaw and a team they can’t beat. The Red Sox lead the AL in OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.806) and they’ve hit Toronto hard this season, outscoring the Blue Jays, 76-49, in compiling nine wins in 12 games. Brett Cecil is a lefty and last season he lost effectiveness as the season wore on. A similar result could be in the cards this year. He was absolutely torched in his last game vs the Angels and the reports are his fastball topped off at just 85 MPH. His groundball rate is way down in his last five starts and that’s another sign of fatigue. John Lester needs no introduction. He’s as good as they come and the Jays are just 10-17 vs southpaws on the year. Lester had an electric July with a 54% groundball rate to go along with outstanding command. He’s dominated this Jays lineup many times and all signs point to another elite start and finish for Lester. Red Sox going away. Play: Boston –1½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
