COLORADO/Atlanta over 8 +1.06 http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
This is a very low total for a game in Colorado and when you consider the starting pitchers the low total certainly has merit. However, when you look deep into the starters, this total appears to be very beatable. Tim Hudson is having his best season at age 35: 2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. But few SP have been more fortunate this year than Hudson. He has a 23% hit rate and an 83% strand rate, which suggests that contact off him has been hit right at people. He’s striking out far less batters than he ever has (just 91 in 171 IP) and his command of the strike zone is about as average as it gets. There are over 50 starting pitchers who have a DOM% (dominance rate (k/9), or opposition strikeouts per game) higher than his 54% DOM%. Avoiding disaster has been his calling card. As an elite groundball pitcher, he won't implode, but he’s also not nearly as strong as his numbers suggest. The Rocks are a different team at home and could easily score four or more here. Jason Hammel is a decent pitcher but he’s very vulnerable against the Braves because they’ve absolutely torched him in the past. In one start this year vs the Braves, Hammel was knocked out in the second inning after allowing seven runs on eight hits. In three career games against Atlanta, he’s lasted a combined 10.2 innings and surrendered an incredible 27 hits and 15 ER for an ERA of 12.66. Current Braves hitters are batting .462 off Hammel and it’s worth noting that the Braves are the NL’s highest scoring offense over the last week. Hell, they may score eight on their own. Play: Colorado/Atlanta over 8 (Risking 2 units).
This is a very low total for a game in Colorado and when you consider the starting pitchers the low total certainly has merit. However, when you look deep into the starters, this total appears to be very beatable. Tim Hudson is having his best season at age 35: 2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. But few SP have been more fortunate this year than Hudson. He has a 23% hit rate and an 83% strand rate, which suggests that contact off him has been hit right at people. He’s striking out far less batters than he ever has (just 91 in 171 IP) and his command of the strike zone is about as average as it gets. There are over 50 starting pitchers who have a DOM% (dominance rate (k/9), or opposition strikeouts per game) higher than his 54% DOM%. Avoiding disaster has been his calling card. As an elite groundball pitcher, he won't implode, but he’s also not nearly as strong as his numbers suggest. The Rocks are a different team at home and could easily score four or more here. Jason Hammel is a decent pitcher but he’s very vulnerable against the Braves because they’ve absolutely torched him in the past. In one start this year vs the Braves, Hammel was knocked out in the second inning after allowing seven runs on eight hits. In three career games against Atlanta, he’s lasted a combined 10.2 innings and surrendered an incredible 27 hits and 15 ER for an ERA of 12.66. Current Braves hitters are batting .462 off Hammel and it’s worth noting that the Braves are the NL’s highest scoring offense over the last week. Hell, they may score eight on their own. Play: Colorado/Atlanta over 8 (Risking 2 units).
