Yesterday 1-0-0 +2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 37-36-1 +22.28 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 179-217-3 +13.42 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
MILWAUKEE/Los Angeles over 8½ Ted Lilly has been lights out since joining the Dodgers but like we always say, “Look under the surface and sometimes things aren’t really as they appear. In four starts with the Dodgers, Lilly has given up just four runs in 28 innings but a close look reveals he faced Colorado, Washington and San Diego, all at Chavez Ravine while his one road start was in Atlanta. Incidentally, the Braves numbers vs lefties rank near the bottom of the league in almost every category. Lilly has pitched a lot of innings in pitchers parks but Miller Park is anything but. Fact is, Lilly is an extreme flyball pitcher with an astonishing FB/GB ratio of 49%/30%. Throw in a high strand rate of 76% and a strand rate of 95% since joining the Dodgers and you can see why he’s a big risk at this park against this team. The Brewers are one of the top homerun hitting teams in the league. In fact, their 29.2 AB/HR is tops in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get a couple off Lilly. Dave Bush allowed one run over six innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday, but then left with a blister on his pitching hand. Those irritating blisters could pop again at anytime and Bush isn’t very good to begin with. He has a 4.62 ERA at home but his xERA is 5.15. Current Dodger batters have gone 36-111 against Bush for a BA of .316. Lastly, both bullpens are a disaster waiting to happen and it’s also worth noting that 15 of the Brewers last 20 games at home have gone over the total. Play: Milwaukee/Los Angeles over 8½ (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
Oakland –1.08 over CLEVELAND
Gio Gonzalez has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his last 11 starts and it gets even better than that. Check out who Gonzalez has faced over his last eight starts; The Yanks, Kansas City, Boston, Texas (twice), the White Sox, the Twins and the finally the Blue Jays. That might be the toughest stretch of hitters that any pitcher has faced this year and now Gonzalez takes a huge step down in class when facing these Indians. The last time he pitched in Cleveland back on July 2, Gonzalez threw six innings of shutout ball. In four August starts he has a BAA of .158 and again, the opposition over that stretch was very tough. Gonzalez’s confidence is soaring right now and so it should be. The kid has filthy stuff. Fausto Carmona appears to be running on fumes right now. He’s been tagged for 46 hits in his last 28 innings and in four August starts, which include one against both KC and Seattle, the opposition is hitting a monstrous .356 off him. Remember, Carmona pitched just 120 and 125 innings in ’08 and ’09 respectively and this year he’s already up to 156. The workload that he’s unaccustomed to is taking its toll big time and frankly this is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions. Play: Oakland –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 37-36-1 +22.28 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 179-217-3 +13.42 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
MILWAUKEE/Los Angeles over 8½ Ted Lilly has been lights out since joining the Dodgers but like we always say, “Look under the surface and sometimes things aren’t really as they appear. In four starts with the Dodgers, Lilly has given up just four runs in 28 innings but a close look reveals he faced Colorado, Washington and San Diego, all at Chavez Ravine while his one road start was in Atlanta. Incidentally, the Braves numbers vs lefties rank near the bottom of the league in almost every category. Lilly has pitched a lot of innings in pitchers parks but Miller Park is anything but. Fact is, Lilly is an extreme flyball pitcher with an astonishing FB/GB ratio of 49%/30%. Throw in a high strand rate of 76% and a strand rate of 95% since joining the Dodgers and you can see why he’s a big risk at this park against this team. The Brewers are one of the top homerun hitting teams in the league. In fact, their 29.2 AB/HR is tops in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get a couple off Lilly. Dave Bush allowed one run over six innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday, but then left with a blister on his pitching hand. Those irritating blisters could pop again at anytime and Bush isn’t very good to begin with. He has a 4.62 ERA at home but his xERA is 5.15. Current Dodger batters have gone 36-111 against Bush for a BA of .316. Lastly, both bullpens are a disaster waiting to happen and it’s also worth noting that 15 of the Brewers last 20 games at home have gone over the total. Play: Milwaukee/Los Angeles over 8½ (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
Oakland –1.08 over CLEVELAND
Gio Gonzalez has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his last 11 starts and it gets even better than that. Check out who Gonzalez has faced over his last eight starts; The Yanks, Kansas City, Boston, Texas (twice), the White Sox, the Twins and the finally the Blue Jays. That might be the toughest stretch of hitters that any pitcher has faced this year and now Gonzalez takes a huge step down in class when facing these Indians. The last time he pitched in Cleveland back on July 2, Gonzalez threw six innings of shutout ball. In four August starts he has a BAA of .158 and again, the opposition over that stretch was very tough. Gonzalez’s confidence is soaring right now and so it should be. The kid has filthy stuff. Fausto Carmona appears to be running on fumes right now. He’s been tagged for 46 hits in his last 28 innings and in four August starts, which include one against both KC and Seattle, the opposition is hitting a monstrous .356 off him. Remember, Carmona pitched just 120 and 125 innings in ’08 and ’09 respectively and this year he’s already up to 156. The workload that he’s unaccustomed to is taking its toll big time and frankly this is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions. Play: Oakland –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
