Yesterday 1 1 0 -0.10 Units
Last 30 Days 37 35 1 +24.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 180 218 3 +13.32 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
COLORADO +1.16 over Atlanta
Note the 3:10 PM EST start. Esmil Rogers is looking more confident and comfortable with each start and it was topped off by an outstanding effort in his last start in which he threw 6.1 innings of six-hit, one run ball in Arizona. Rogers is a converted shortstop who has shown surprising polish for his inexperience. He generates an 88-94 mph fastball because of his quick, fluid arm and clean mechanics. Rogers commands his fastball well and is able to work down in the strike zone to lure groundballs. He also uses two variations of a curveball that frequently gets hitters to swing and miss. He has an excellent GB/FB ratio of 47%/28% and he also has a very good BB/SO ratio with 16BB/42K’s in 47 IP. Since being inserted into the starting rotation three starts ago, Rogers has not walked more than one batter in any of those starts and has three walks and 14 k’s in 18 IP. The kid throws strikes and he’ll face a Braves squad that is not only laboring offensively but that’s never seen him before and that, too, works in his favor. Since returning from the strained hamstring and weakened shoulder that put him on the DL in early May, Jair Jurrjens has been a different player. On the surface, Jair Jurrjens shows continued growth… but not so fast. Jurrjens ERA is 2.90 since returning from the DL, but the xERA says Jurrjens ERA should be closer to 4.50 than it is to 3.00, thus expect a correction in his numbers. If you look at his last four starts he’s had it pretty soft with the Cubbies, Dodgers, Houston and San Fran and all four of those were struggling miserably when facing Jurrjens. Over that four-game stretch his strand rate was 78% and his xERA was 5.72. Jurrjens is steady but he’s not as good as his numbers suggest and so, that aforementioned correction has a great chance of occurring here. Play: Colorado +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.00 over WASHINGTON
For the first time all year it looks like the Cubbies are relaxed and having fun. It appears as though the departure of Sweet Lou has alleviated the tension and now the Cubs are playing some baseball. They’ve come in here and have outscored the Nats 14-5 in winning the first two games of the series. Incidentally, the Nats scored three in the ninth last night to make a 5-1 score look a lot more respectable at 5-4. Now the Cubbies will get the most favorable matchup of the series and they’re still not laying anything. Jason Marquis is 0-6 with an ERA of 11.39. Since coming off the DL his ERA is 6.03 and that’s with a strand rate of 80%. He’s also walked eight batters and struck out just six in three starts since returning and the league is hitting .356 off him. Ryan Dempster's name will never be mentioned among the NL's elite starters, but the veteran deserves more respect than he gets. A dependable and solid starter can be gold and Dempster is once again proving his worth. He’s 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA over his last four starts and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of them. So, to recap, Marquis doesn’t throw strikes but he does throw batting practice out there. He’s a complete stiff and the fact that he’s favored over Marquis is ludicrous. Not even Chris Angel can make this illusion work. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +1.02 over SAN FRANCISCO
Note the 3:45 PM EST start. Homer Bailey has never matched the potential found in his raw stuff. He’s spent a lot of time on the DL but finished very strong last season and he’s shown signs of brilliance in the past and has duplicated that in two starts back since coming off the DL. In a nine-game stretch last year, Bailey went 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA. In two starts since coming off the DL, he’s allowed just seven hits in 13 IP for a BAA of .156. He also struck out 10 while issuing just two free passes. Bailey is just 24-years-old, he has a ton of upside and his stuff is reminiscent of the Jays Brandon Morrow. Madison Baumgarner is absolutely showing signs of fatigue or perhaps the league is catching up to him. He’s allowed eight hits or more in four straight starts and his strand rate over that stretch was an unsustainable 79%. Also note that his fly-ball rate went way up over that same stretch and that’s not a good sign. In his last two starts he’s induced 33 fly-ball outs to just 17 groundball outs. Long-term, Baumgarner’s future continues to look incredibly bright. For the remainder of this season, be prepared for the inconsistencies that come with any young hurler, and know that workload concerns could enter the picture soon -- he threw 141 IP in 2008 and 2009, and is at 145 IP between the minors and majors coming into this game. Small line could be enticing for Giant backers but they have no edge other than home field. Play: Cincinnati +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +1.22 over NY Yankees
Phil Hughes is second in the league with 15 wins and he’s also 6-2 over his last eight decisions. He’s put up some very good numbers with outstanding control and pitching for the Yanks sure doesn’t hurt either. Having said that, there are some things to be concerned about if you’re thinking of laying the price here. Hughes has a very unappealing high fly-ball rate of 53%. His groundball rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors among qualified starters and at this park against this homerun hitting lineup, Hughes could run into some big trouble. Also note that the Jays have seen him twice over the past six weeks and both those came at Yankee Stadium. In those two starts against Toronto, he allowed six runs in 11 innings of work. The Jays AL second-best OPS vs. RHP suggests that this is as tough a matchup as it gets for Hughes. At home vs right-handers the Jays are 30-16. Brett Cecil has faced the Yanks twice this year and in 14 IP against them his ERA is 1.29. Cecil has allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts and if he’s throwing strikes and is on his game, he’s tough as shoe leather. Once again, when you play the Yanks you’re going to pay a premium to do so and once again they’re overpriced in a game that they really have no advantage whatsoever. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.64 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
Mark Buehrle has shown a serious decline in his skills going all the way back to the second half of last season. He also has a ton of miles on his arm at the age of 31 and is a big risk to get rocked every time he takes the hill. Buehrle has just 68 K’s on the year in 160 IP and that means the O’s will get some good cracks at him. They faced him recently and while they scored just three runs off him, they still racked up 10 hits in seven innings. Buehrle has a nice-looking ERA of 3.87 but an xERA of 5.02 to go along with a BAA of .285 suggests that he’s been very fortunate and you can expect his ERA to head south the final few weeks of the season. Buehrle has a history of being very dependable and consistent. However, the huge fade in the 2H of '09 combined with some pedestrian beneath the surface stats this season are big warning signs that should not be ignored. Fact is, Buehrle is way overpriced here against Brian Matusz. Matusz is a talented lefty that has the ability to dominate. He’s gaining steam right now and is coming off an eight-inning, five-hit shutout against the Rangers. He’s allowed just one jack over his last five starts and that is right in line with an increased groundball rate that went from 38% to 46% over those last five starts. Matusz is so close to putting it all together and the wager here is that he’s better than Buehrle in the first half of the game. Play: Baltimore +1.64 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 37 35 1 +24.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 180 218 3 +13.32 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
COLORADO +1.16 over Atlanta
Note the 3:10 PM EST start. Esmil Rogers is looking more confident and comfortable with each start and it was topped off by an outstanding effort in his last start in which he threw 6.1 innings of six-hit, one run ball in Arizona. Rogers is a converted shortstop who has shown surprising polish for his inexperience. He generates an 88-94 mph fastball because of his quick, fluid arm and clean mechanics. Rogers commands his fastball well and is able to work down in the strike zone to lure groundballs. He also uses two variations of a curveball that frequently gets hitters to swing and miss. He has an excellent GB/FB ratio of 47%/28% and he also has a very good BB/SO ratio with 16BB/42K’s in 47 IP. Since being inserted into the starting rotation three starts ago, Rogers has not walked more than one batter in any of those starts and has three walks and 14 k’s in 18 IP. The kid throws strikes and he’ll face a Braves squad that is not only laboring offensively but that’s never seen him before and that, too, works in his favor. Since returning from the strained hamstring and weakened shoulder that put him on the DL in early May, Jair Jurrjens has been a different player. On the surface, Jair Jurrjens shows continued growth… but not so fast. Jurrjens ERA is 2.90 since returning from the DL, but the xERA says Jurrjens ERA should be closer to 4.50 than it is to 3.00, thus expect a correction in his numbers. If you look at his last four starts he’s had it pretty soft with the Cubbies, Dodgers, Houston and San Fran and all four of those were struggling miserably when facing Jurrjens. Over that four-game stretch his strand rate was 78% and his xERA was 5.72. Jurrjens is steady but he’s not as good as his numbers suggest and so, that aforementioned correction has a great chance of occurring here. Play: Colorado +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.00 over WASHINGTON
For the first time all year it looks like the Cubbies are relaxed and having fun. It appears as though the departure of Sweet Lou has alleviated the tension and now the Cubs are playing some baseball. They’ve come in here and have outscored the Nats 14-5 in winning the first two games of the series. Incidentally, the Nats scored three in the ninth last night to make a 5-1 score look a lot more respectable at 5-4. Now the Cubbies will get the most favorable matchup of the series and they’re still not laying anything. Jason Marquis is 0-6 with an ERA of 11.39. Since coming off the DL his ERA is 6.03 and that’s with a strand rate of 80%. He’s also walked eight batters and struck out just six in three starts since returning and the league is hitting .356 off him. Ryan Dempster's name will never be mentioned among the NL's elite starters, but the veteran deserves more respect than he gets. A dependable and solid starter can be gold and Dempster is once again proving his worth. He’s 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA over his last four starts and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of them. So, to recap, Marquis doesn’t throw strikes but he does throw batting practice out there. He’s a complete stiff and the fact that he’s favored over Marquis is ludicrous. Not even Chris Angel can make this illusion work. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +1.02 over SAN FRANCISCO
Note the 3:45 PM EST start. Homer Bailey has never matched the potential found in his raw stuff. He’s spent a lot of time on the DL but finished very strong last season and he’s shown signs of brilliance in the past and has duplicated that in two starts back since coming off the DL. In a nine-game stretch last year, Bailey went 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA. In two starts since coming off the DL, he’s allowed just seven hits in 13 IP for a BAA of .156. He also struck out 10 while issuing just two free passes. Bailey is just 24-years-old, he has a ton of upside and his stuff is reminiscent of the Jays Brandon Morrow. Madison Baumgarner is absolutely showing signs of fatigue or perhaps the league is catching up to him. He’s allowed eight hits or more in four straight starts and his strand rate over that stretch was an unsustainable 79%. Also note that his fly-ball rate went way up over that same stretch and that’s not a good sign. In his last two starts he’s induced 33 fly-ball outs to just 17 groundball outs. Long-term, Baumgarner’s future continues to look incredibly bright. For the remainder of this season, be prepared for the inconsistencies that come with any young hurler, and know that workload concerns could enter the picture soon -- he threw 141 IP in 2008 and 2009, and is at 145 IP between the minors and majors coming into this game. Small line could be enticing for Giant backers but they have no edge other than home field. Play: Cincinnati +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +1.22 over NY Yankees
Phil Hughes is second in the league with 15 wins and he’s also 6-2 over his last eight decisions. He’s put up some very good numbers with outstanding control and pitching for the Yanks sure doesn’t hurt either. Having said that, there are some things to be concerned about if you’re thinking of laying the price here. Hughes has a very unappealing high fly-ball rate of 53%. His groundball rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors among qualified starters and at this park against this homerun hitting lineup, Hughes could run into some big trouble. Also note that the Jays have seen him twice over the past six weeks and both those came at Yankee Stadium. In those two starts against Toronto, he allowed six runs in 11 innings of work. The Jays AL second-best OPS vs. RHP suggests that this is as tough a matchup as it gets for Hughes. At home vs right-handers the Jays are 30-16. Brett Cecil has faced the Yanks twice this year and in 14 IP against them his ERA is 1.29. Cecil has allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts and if he’s throwing strikes and is on his game, he’s tough as shoe leather. Once again, when you play the Yanks you’re going to pay a premium to do so and once again they’re overpriced in a game that they really have no advantage whatsoever. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.64 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
Mark Buehrle has shown a serious decline in his skills going all the way back to the second half of last season. He also has a ton of miles on his arm at the age of 31 and is a big risk to get rocked every time he takes the hill. Buehrle has just 68 K’s on the year in 160 IP and that means the O’s will get some good cracks at him. They faced him recently and while they scored just three runs off him, they still racked up 10 hits in seven innings. Buehrle has a nice-looking ERA of 3.87 but an xERA of 5.02 to go along with a BAA of .285 suggests that he’s been very fortunate and you can expect his ERA to head south the final few weeks of the season. Buehrle has a history of being very dependable and consistent. However, the huge fade in the 2H of '09 combined with some pedestrian beneath the surface stats this season are big warning signs that should not be ignored. Fact is, Buehrle is way overpriced here against Brian Matusz. Matusz is a talented lefty that has the ability to dominate. He’s gaining steam right now and is coming off an eight-inning, five-hit shutout against the Rangers. He’s allowed just one jack over his last five starts and that is right in line with an increased groundball rate that went from 38% to 46% over those last five starts. Matusz is so close to putting it all together and the wager here is that he’s better than Buehrle in the first half of the game. Play: Baltimore +1.64 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
