Yesterday 5-0-0 +12.08 Units
Last 30 Days 40-35-1 +31.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 185-218-3 +25.40 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.60 over PHILADELPHIA
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. Wandy Rodriguez is on fire and the fact that he and the Astros are taking back +1.60 is somewhat ridiculous. Rodriguez has been ace-like since July 1: 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP. He also has a 2.99 xERA during this period, so this is no surface stat fluke. He has a wicked curve that could be hugely troublesome for a struggling Philadelphia offense. The Astros have won the first three games of this series and will come into this one completely relaxed with all the pressure in the world on the Phillies. Houston also beat Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels and Roy Halliday and they’ll take a huge step down in class against Kyle Kendrick. Remember, Kendrick was sent down to the minors and was recalled just about a month ago only because Jamie Moyer was put on the DL. He spent almost no time in the minors but if Moyer stayed healthy, Kendrick would still be there. Kendrick had been largely ineffective up to that point with a 4.82 ERA and he’s not been better since. He’s been torched in two of his last three starts with only decent outing over that stretch being in New York against the Mets. Against both the Nats and Dodgers he was ripped apart and overall in four August starts, Kendrick has a BAA of .341. In seven starts at home this year, Kendrick has an ERA of 5.46. The Phillies are seeing BB’s again, Kendrick is a start away from being sent back down and the Phillies are –1.70? Overlay. Play: Houston +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON +1.78 over St. Louis
The Cardinals have dropped seven of its last 10 and that includes series losses to both the Pirates and Cubbies. Good news for Cardinal fan is that Tony LaRussa is not likely coming back. LaRussa actually believes in his own mind that batting the pitcher eighth is working. He really believes he’s smarter than any manager that has ever managed. He’s like a dog owner that feeds his dog human food. Millions and millions of dollars has gone into the research of dog-food and dog-owner thinks that feeding his pooch some bacon and eggs is a good idea. Well, hundreds of thousands of games have been played and there’s a reason why the batter hits ninth. But not to that genius, he has it all figured out. Most of you are likely too young to remember but way back in the early 80’s while managing the A’s, LaRussa went through a stretch where each of his four starters were asked to pitch three innings in every game. It lasted about six weeks and he finally gave in after the A’s were getting creamed every game. Anyway, this really has nothing to do with today’s game but the point is managers will not win many games for a team but they sure can lose a bunch and that’s precisely the case with that whisky-loving manager of the Cards. Chris Carpenter needs no introduction. He’s solid and dependable and could absolutely breeze through this one. However, with the return of Jordan Zimmerman and the chance to play spoiler, perhaps the Nats will show some life here. Washington management announced Monday that Zimmermann, who has spent the season rehabbbing from Tommy John Surgery, is to be activated. Zimmermann has compiled a 1.59 ERA in 10 minor-league appearances spanning 39.2 IP, with a 31/6 K/BB and a .193 batting-average-against (BAA). While he has only a half-season of previous Major League experience, Zimmermann flashed some impressive skills in 2009 prior to his season-ending TJS. The small minor-league sample this season indicates that the impressive 2009 skills (108 BPV, 3.68 xERA) may be virtually intact upon return. Zimmermann is clearly one to watch and with a big take-back against a squad that just lost two straight to the Pirates, the Nats are worth a shot. Play: Washington +1.78 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona/SAN DIEGO under 7½ +1.02
The first thing to note here is that this is a day game after a night game which means there’s a strong chance some reserves will get in the lineups. Kevin Correia is considered to be the Padres weak link in the rotation but he’s been the recipient of some bad fortune. Fact is, Corriea has a rock-solid GB/FB ratio of 48%/29% and that’s one of the best splits in the majors. He’s also thrown a shutout in two of his last four starts and has not allowed a single jack in any of his last four starts. Correia is not an "ace." but with a combination of a solid fastball, a hard sinker and a developing changeup, his skills suggest a potentially strong finish and it’s not like he’s facing the Reds. The Snakes are 13-29 on the road vs righties and their inability to hit righties has largely led to that awful record. Ian Kennedy has 15’s K’s in 10 innings and a 2.70 ERA against the Padres this season. When he pitched in San Diego earlier in the year he allowed zero runs on two hits in five full innings. This guy has logged a lot of innings at hitter-friendly Chase Field so a start in San Diego is surely a welcome one. The Padres have had one day off in its last 15 and with a comfortable 6½-game lead, with some reserves likely getting some playing time and with Philly in here tomorrow, the Padres might not be as juiced up as we've been accustomed to. Play: Arizona/San Diego under 7½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 40-35-1 +31.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 185-218-3 +25.40 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.60 over PHILADELPHIA
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. Wandy Rodriguez is on fire and the fact that he and the Astros are taking back +1.60 is somewhat ridiculous. Rodriguez has been ace-like since July 1: 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP. He also has a 2.99 xERA during this period, so this is no surface stat fluke. He has a wicked curve that could be hugely troublesome for a struggling Philadelphia offense. The Astros have won the first three games of this series and will come into this one completely relaxed with all the pressure in the world on the Phillies. Houston also beat Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels and Roy Halliday and they’ll take a huge step down in class against Kyle Kendrick. Remember, Kendrick was sent down to the minors and was recalled just about a month ago only because Jamie Moyer was put on the DL. He spent almost no time in the minors but if Moyer stayed healthy, Kendrick would still be there. Kendrick had been largely ineffective up to that point with a 4.82 ERA and he’s not been better since. He’s been torched in two of his last three starts with only decent outing over that stretch being in New York against the Mets. Against both the Nats and Dodgers he was ripped apart and overall in four August starts, Kendrick has a BAA of .341. In seven starts at home this year, Kendrick has an ERA of 5.46. The Phillies are seeing BB’s again, Kendrick is a start away from being sent back down and the Phillies are –1.70? Overlay. Play: Houston +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON +1.78 over St. Louis
The Cardinals have dropped seven of its last 10 and that includes series losses to both the Pirates and Cubbies. Good news for Cardinal fan is that Tony LaRussa is not likely coming back. LaRussa actually believes in his own mind that batting the pitcher eighth is working. He really believes he’s smarter than any manager that has ever managed. He’s like a dog owner that feeds his dog human food. Millions and millions of dollars has gone into the research of dog-food and dog-owner thinks that feeding his pooch some bacon and eggs is a good idea. Well, hundreds of thousands of games have been played and there’s a reason why the batter hits ninth. But not to that genius, he has it all figured out. Most of you are likely too young to remember but way back in the early 80’s while managing the A’s, LaRussa went through a stretch where each of his four starters were asked to pitch three innings in every game. It lasted about six weeks and he finally gave in after the A’s were getting creamed every game. Anyway, this really has nothing to do with today’s game but the point is managers will not win many games for a team but they sure can lose a bunch and that’s precisely the case with that whisky-loving manager of the Cards. Chris Carpenter needs no introduction. He’s solid and dependable and could absolutely breeze through this one. However, with the return of Jordan Zimmerman and the chance to play spoiler, perhaps the Nats will show some life here. Washington management announced Monday that Zimmermann, who has spent the season rehabbbing from Tommy John Surgery, is to be activated. Zimmermann has compiled a 1.59 ERA in 10 minor-league appearances spanning 39.2 IP, with a 31/6 K/BB and a .193 batting-average-against (BAA). While he has only a half-season of previous Major League experience, Zimmermann flashed some impressive skills in 2009 prior to his season-ending TJS. The small minor-league sample this season indicates that the impressive 2009 skills (108 BPV, 3.68 xERA) may be virtually intact upon return. Zimmermann is clearly one to watch and with a big take-back against a squad that just lost two straight to the Pirates, the Nats are worth a shot. Play: Washington +1.78 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona/SAN DIEGO under 7½ +1.02
The first thing to note here is that this is a day game after a night game which means there’s a strong chance some reserves will get in the lineups. Kevin Correia is considered to be the Padres weak link in the rotation but he’s been the recipient of some bad fortune. Fact is, Corriea has a rock-solid GB/FB ratio of 48%/29% and that’s one of the best splits in the majors. He’s also thrown a shutout in two of his last four starts and has not allowed a single jack in any of his last four starts. Correia is not an "ace." but with a combination of a solid fastball, a hard sinker and a developing changeup, his skills suggest a potentially strong finish and it’s not like he’s facing the Reds. The Snakes are 13-29 on the road vs righties and their inability to hit righties has largely led to that awful record. Ian Kennedy has 15’s K’s in 10 innings and a 2.70 ERA against the Padres this season. When he pitched in San Diego earlier in the year he allowed zero runs on two hits in five full innings. This guy has logged a lot of innings at hitter-friendly Chase Field so a start in San Diego is surely a welcome one. The Padres have had one day off in its last 15 and with a comfortable 6½-game lead, with some reserves likely getting some playing time and with Philly in here tomorrow, the Padres might not be as juiced up as we've been accustomed to. Play: Arizona/San Diego under 7½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
