Yesterday 2-1-0 +4.76 units
Last 30 Days 40-35-1 +32.04 units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 187-219-3 +30.16 units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.41 over NY METS
The Astros have been pure gold in the second half and there’s no reason whatsoever to stop playing them now. They catch a Mets team that is pretty much dead after just dropping three of its last four to the Marlins and Pirates and falling 7½-games back in the Wild Card race. The Mets are finished because not only are they 7½ out but they would have to leapfrog six teams and that’s not going to happen. So, with little steam left and with Mike Pelfrey on the hill, the Mets are very vulnerable. Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts and that brings us back to April when he dazzled by opening the year 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA. Pelfrey was extremely fortunate then and he’s been extremely fortunate over his last three. Remember, he went on that horrible run for about six straight starts in which he was throwing BP out there and you can expect more of that in his final few starts than the so-called quality starts that he’s thrown recently. First, in those aforementioned last three starts he faced the Rockies and Phillies at home and then he faced the Pirates on the road. All three were struggling miserably when they faced Pelfrey. In the last 31 days he has an unsustainable 80% strand rate and in two of his last four starts he struck out one lousy batter. Pelfrey’s ERA of 1.64 over his last three looks very sweet on paper but his xERA over that span was 4.44 and that’s significant. Pelfrey’s only saving grace is a decent GB rate but as the chalk, he’s way too risky and you can double that against a hot Astro team. Nelson Figueroa gets a crack at the team he pitched for in ’08 and ’09 for the second time in three starts so you know he’ll be juiced up for that. He’s been solid in two starts since being inserted into the Astro rotation and is coming off a six-inning, four hit gem against the Marlins in which he walked one and whiffed seven. In August, Figueroa has appeared in six games, two as a starter, covering 16.2 innings and over that span he’s walked four, struck out 17 and had an ERA of 2.70. He’s shown a late career surge and while he, too, is somewhat risky, he’s not the one laying a price. Stros can’t wait to get back on the field. Play: Houston +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.25 over TEXAS (1st 5 innings)
Tommy Hunter is 10-2 with a 3.68 ERA and overall the Rangers are 12-3 in his starts. That’s very nice but Tommy Hunter has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league and his charmed life has some serious corrections forthcoming. Any optimism you gain from his surface stats should be tempered by his high xERAs. Fly-ball prone soft-tossers are a disaster waiting to happen in this park and Hunter fits the bill. Hunter's xERA is still a full two runs higher than his actual ERA and you can bet that will catch up to him, it always does. In his last start vs the O’s, Hunter threw eight innings and didn’t strike out a single batter nor did he walk a batter, which means every player put the ball in play and every ball was hit right at someone. In four starts prior to that one, Hunter’s ERA was 9.39 but that stretch is masked by some surface stats, which includes a 6-0 record at home. Fact is, Hunter is by far the second best pitcher in this game and hitching your wagon to him is a big time risk when you’re laying juice. The Rangers and A’s have split 12 games this season and left-handers are a problem for TEX bats -- the Rangers are hitting a league-average .267/.330/.339 against southpaws; they are 21-18 against lefty starters and 51-36 against righties. By contrast, Brett Anderson has an eye-opening GB rate of 54% and in the last month that rate has been 57%. He has a 2.86 ERA which is slightly lower than his xERA of 3.12, confirming he’s no fluke. Anderson is fresh with just 11 starts this year after a rookie season that was nothing short of impressive. Solid skills in the first half reached elite levels in 2H, as he was serving up ground ball after ground ball and it hasn’t stopped this year. Anderson is worthy of an investment and because this play is based solely on the starters, the wager is that Anderson is much better than that imposter Hunter in the game’s first five frames. Play: Oakland +1.25 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 40-35-1 +32.04 units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 187-219-3 +30.16 units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.41 over NY METS
The Astros have been pure gold in the second half and there’s no reason whatsoever to stop playing them now. They catch a Mets team that is pretty much dead after just dropping three of its last four to the Marlins and Pirates and falling 7½-games back in the Wild Card race. The Mets are finished because not only are they 7½ out but they would have to leapfrog six teams and that’s not going to happen. So, with little steam left and with Mike Pelfrey on the hill, the Mets are very vulnerable. Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts and that brings us back to April when he dazzled by opening the year 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA. Pelfrey was extremely fortunate then and he’s been extremely fortunate over his last three. Remember, he went on that horrible run for about six straight starts in which he was throwing BP out there and you can expect more of that in his final few starts than the so-called quality starts that he’s thrown recently. First, in those aforementioned last three starts he faced the Rockies and Phillies at home and then he faced the Pirates on the road. All three were struggling miserably when they faced Pelfrey. In the last 31 days he has an unsustainable 80% strand rate and in two of his last four starts he struck out one lousy batter. Pelfrey’s ERA of 1.64 over his last three looks very sweet on paper but his xERA over that span was 4.44 and that’s significant. Pelfrey’s only saving grace is a decent GB rate but as the chalk, he’s way too risky and you can double that against a hot Astro team. Nelson Figueroa gets a crack at the team he pitched for in ’08 and ’09 for the second time in three starts so you know he’ll be juiced up for that. He’s been solid in two starts since being inserted into the Astro rotation and is coming off a six-inning, four hit gem against the Marlins in which he walked one and whiffed seven. In August, Figueroa has appeared in six games, two as a starter, covering 16.2 innings and over that span he’s walked four, struck out 17 and had an ERA of 2.70. He’s shown a late career surge and while he, too, is somewhat risky, he’s not the one laying a price. Stros can’t wait to get back on the field. Play: Houston +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.25 over TEXAS (1st 5 innings)
Tommy Hunter is 10-2 with a 3.68 ERA and overall the Rangers are 12-3 in his starts. That’s very nice but Tommy Hunter has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league and his charmed life has some serious corrections forthcoming. Any optimism you gain from his surface stats should be tempered by his high xERAs. Fly-ball prone soft-tossers are a disaster waiting to happen in this park and Hunter fits the bill. Hunter's xERA is still a full two runs higher than his actual ERA and you can bet that will catch up to him, it always does. In his last start vs the O’s, Hunter threw eight innings and didn’t strike out a single batter nor did he walk a batter, which means every player put the ball in play and every ball was hit right at someone. In four starts prior to that one, Hunter’s ERA was 9.39 but that stretch is masked by some surface stats, which includes a 6-0 record at home. Fact is, Hunter is by far the second best pitcher in this game and hitching your wagon to him is a big time risk when you’re laying juice. The Rangers and A’s have split 12 games this season and left-handers are a problem for TEX bats -- the Rangers are hitting a league-average .267/.330/.339 against southpaws; they are 21-18 against lefty starters and 51-36 against righties. By contrast, Brett Anderson has an eye-opening GB rate of 54% and in the last month that rate has been 57%. He has a 2.86 ERA which is slightly lower than his xERA of 3.12, confirming he’s no fluke. Anderson is fresh with just 11 starts this year after a rookie season that was nothing short of impressive. Solid skills in the first half reached elite levels in 2H, as he was serving up ground ball after ground ball and it hasn’t stopped this year. Anderson is worthy of an investment and because this play is based solely on the starters, the wager is that Anderson is much better than that imposter Hunter in the game’s first five frames. Play: Oakland +1.25 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
