Yesterday 0 2 0 -4.00 Units
Last 30 Days 38 37 0 +23.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 187 221 3 +26.16 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Oakland +1.38 over TEXAS
This has been an eventful season for Dallas Braden. His season includes a perfect game, pitching through an early-season ankle injury that often left his status uncertain between scheduled starts, and a mid-season DL stint with elbow tendinitis, which cost him a month. Perhaps most significantly, 2010 may become known as the season in which Braden established himself as a solid starting pitcher. Braden's 62%/14% good start/bad start split indicates that he has become a reliable, consistent starter this season despite the physical obstacles he has faced. The 2010 skill-set here include some clear differences from that of previous seasons. His control has improved from solid to elite, as Braden has lowered his walk rate by more than one-per-nine-innings, a substantial improvement. Braden is inducing more groundballs than in seasons past, with a substantial rise in GB% accompanied by a corresponding drop in FB%. Despite a strong offensive showing last night, the Rangers still struggle vs southpaws. More than that, however, is the tag being offered here against Rich Harden. Harden continued his "Jekyll-and-Hyde" season with 6.2 hitless-shutout innings on Monday. He threw 111 pitches in a five-walk, six-strikeout effort in his return from a shoulder issue-induced DL stint. Harden has struggled between injuries this season, with horrid control contributing to an awful 5.56 xERA. Harden also has a 53% FB rate, a 74% strand rate and over his last three starts that strand rate is 88%. Harden is a high-risk favorite that is not worth the risk. Play: Oakland +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota –1.07 over SEATTLE
Nick Blackburn has shown very little this season and in most cases he’s been completely torched. He comes into this game with a 2-7 road record and a 9.30 ERA to go along with it. In fact, his ERA on the road is almost three times higher than the home ERA (3.14) of Doug Fister. The difference between these two pitchers, however, is very slight and while Blackburn’s ERA is a result of everything going wrong, Fister’s ERA is a result of everything going right. Fact is, Fister is a soft-tosser with a ton of blowup risk. In four August starts, he’s allowed 31 hits in just 22 IP for a BAA of .333. It’s also worth noting that the Twinkies have seen him twice this year and they scored five runs on him both times so he’s not likely to fool them here either. As for Blackburn, well, he, too, is a soft-tosser with good control. He and Fister could be brothers in that respect, as they come from the same school of pitching. The big difference is not in their skill levels; that’s even. The difference comes in the respective teams they play for and you certainly don’t need this analysis to point those differences out. In a match-up of equally poor starters, with one being no better than the other, take the much-better team and lay under a dime. Play: Minnesota –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Arizona +1.38 over SAN FRANCISCO
This could be the biggest overlay on the board today. First, the D-Backs continue to tear it up against lefties with one of the top OPS vs southpaws in the league. Arizona is still playing good ball and have been for the better part of the last month. They came in here last night and beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants 6-0 in a matchup that looked a lot less favorable than this one. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito no matter how you break it down. He relies heavily on his experience and some luck and sometimes it works out. Fact is, Zito has an xERA his past three starts of 7.27. His GB rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors. If he wins, he’s lucky because he absolutely will allow the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities with his propensity to give up hits and walks. As the season drags on, you can expect Zito’s fluky 3.78 ERA to head south. Over his last four appearances, which include that one inning he pitched in that marathon game against the Reds last week, Zito has surrendered 28 hits in 16 innings. Zito is a stiff, period. Daniel Hudson has been brilliant. Since coming over from the Chicago White Sox on July 30, he’s done nothing but dominate. Hudson held Colorado to four hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out nine Sunday, but didn’t get any help in a 1-0 loss. Hudson has nasty stuff and when you consider that everyone has seen Zito about 1000 times and nobody has seen Hudson, a big edge has to go to the pitcher nobody has seen. Play: Arizona +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 38 37 0 +23.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 187 221 3 +26.16 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Oakland +1.38 over TEXAS
This has been an eventful season for Dallas Braden. His season includes a perfect game, pitching through an early-season ankle injury that often left his status uncertain between scheduled starts, and a mid-season DL stint with elbow tendinitis, which cost him a month. Perhaps most significantly, 2010 may become known as the season in which Braden established himself as a solid starting pitcher. Braden's 62%/14% good start/bad start split indicates that he has become a reliable, consistent starter this season despite the physical obstacles he has faced. The 2010 skill-set here include some clear differences from that of previous seasons. His control has improved from solid to elite, as Braden has lowered his walk rate by more than one-per-nine-innings, a substantial improvement. Braden is inducing more groundballs than in seasons past, with a substantial rise in GB% accompanied by a corresponding drop in FB%. Despite a strong offensive showing last night, the Rangers still struggle vs southpaws. More than that, however, is the tag being offered here against Rich Harden. Harden continued his "Jekyll-and-Hyde" season with 6.2 hitless-shutout innings on Monday. He threw 111 pitches in a five-walk, six-strikeout effort in his return from a shoulder issue-induced DL stint. Harden has struggled between injuries this season, with horrid control contributing to an awful 5.56 xERA. Harden also has a 53% FB rate, a 74% strand rate and over his last three starts that strand rate is 88%. Harden is a high-risk favorite that is not worth the risk. Play: Oakland +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota –1.07 over SEATTLE
Nick Blackburn has shown very little this season and in most cases he’s been completely torched. He comes into this game with a 2-7 road record and a 9.30 ERA to go along with it. In fact, his ERA on the road is almost three times higher than the home ERA (3.14) of Doug Fister. The difference between these two pitchers, however, is very slight and while Blackburn’s ERA is a result of everything going wrong, Fister’s ERA is a result of everything going right. Fact is, Fister is a soft-tosser with a ton of blowup risk. In four August starts, he’s allowed 31 hits in just 22 IP for a BAA of .333. It’s also worth noting that the Twinkies have seen him twice this year and they scored five runs on him both times so he’s not likely to fool them here either. As for Blackburn, well, he, too, is a soft-tosser with good control. He and Fister could be brothers in that respect, as they come from the same school of pitching. The big difference is not in their skill levels; that’s even. The difference comes in the respective teams they play for and you certainly don’t need this analysis to point those differences out. In a match-up of equally poor starters, with one being no better than the other, take the much-better team and lay under a dime. Play: Minnesota –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Arizona +1.38 over SAN FRANCISCO
This could be the biggest overlay on the board today. First, the D-Backs continue to tear it up against lefties with one of the top OPS vs southpaws in the league. Arizona is still playing good ball and have been for the better part of the last month. They came in here last night and beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants 6-0 in a matchup that looked a lot less favorable than this one. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito no matter how you break it down. He relies heavily on his experience and some luck and sometimes it works out. Fact is, Zito has an xERA his past three starts of 7.27. His GB rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors. If he wins, he’s lucky because he absolutely will allow the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities with his propensity to give up hits and walks. As the season drags on, you can expect Zito’s fluky 3.78 ERA to head south. Over his last four appearances, which include that one inning he pitched in that marathon game against the Reds last week, Zito has surrendered 28 hits in 16 innings. Zito is a stiff, period. Daniel Hudson has been brilliant. Since coming over from the Chicago White Sox on July 30, he’s done nothing but dominate. Hudson held Colorado to four hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out nine Sunday, but didn’t get any help in a 1-0 loss. Hudson has nasty stuff and when you consider that everyone has seen Zito about 1000 times and nobody has seen Hudson, a big edge has to go to the pitcher nobody has seen. Play: Arizona +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
