poorly written article but still a little interesting.
http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=5499957
http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=5499957
By the time I arrived at Roadrunners on Flamingo, 20 minutes from The Strip, the meeting had already started. Teddy Covers was there. So were Fezzik and Bryan Leonard and Jim Kruger and Arne Lang and a half-dozen other longtime sharps. They were seated in the cowboy-themed back room, where they are every Tuesday afternoon, at three circle tables pushed together. Hammered to the bright red walls were cowboy boots, longhorn skulls and paintings inspired by the Wild West.
This is the weekly wiseguy lunch. Around these tables, every theory, stat, number and maxim is debated in a language studded with so much betting lingo that, if the words were strung together end to end, they'd reach the top of the Stratosphere.
"It's no fluff, nothing personal," says Fezzik. "We just come in and get down to business."
The agenda every week is simple: After someone announces a game and the spread -- Kansas State minus-2.5 over UCLA -- the guys go around the table, say how they power-rated the game, if they bet it, at what price they got it or if they are passing. They run through both the college and pro schedules, talking about sides, first halves, money lines and totals. There's one guy who, whenever it's his turn, just announces his projected total for the game, blurting out digits like an auctioneer -- 59.6, 46.7, 64.2. Talking too much is a no-no, but if someone has a particularly smart theory or insight it gets shared, praised debated and knocked around.
It's the Vegas equivalent of Linux.
When I got there the tables were littered with plates of chili and salads and chicken club sandwiches, jug-sized glasses of iced tea and a library full of betting aides: Don Best booklets that list all the matchups for the season, college and pro, Phil Steele's college football annual, reams of paper that each guy had printed out with notes handwritten in the margin. Fezzik, sitting in the middle and facing the door, was the only guy with a laptop open. He was picking green grapes from a bag he had brought from home. The whole scene looked like a bunch of frat guys cramming for the final in a class taught by Lefty Rosenthal at the old Stardust.
This session was dedicated to breaking down Week 1 of college football. Lines for the games had been up for a while and most of the wiseguys rushed to get their piece as soon as they opened. But that didn't mean there weren't still some opportunities worth discussing -- or opinions to be dissed. Take the Texas-Rice game being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, which was listed as Texas minus-29. Rice is located in Houston, so one of the sharps, who power-rated the game with Rice as a 27-point underdog, said, "I'm giving them another point for being in their hometown, so I've got it at 26. I took Rice plus the 29."
"What?" another sharp said skeptically while peering over his glasses. "This game is still being played in Texas. There are going to be more Longhorn fans there than Rice fans. This is not a home game for Rice."
"Plus, Texas has won the past three games (since 2006) 52-7, 58-14 and 52-10," another chimed in. "And Rice's offense was supposed to be good in those years. It's not now."
Every game had a logic -- sometimes steeped in fact. When Syracuse-Akron was mentioned, Leonard brought up that he had read how Akron's defense had dominated its offense in spring practice, and that was one of the reasons he liked the under 43.5.
Other times the reasoning was steeped in random and intangible patterns or trends, the kind of ephemera the rest of us squares consider. Look at Notre Dame-Purdue, in which Notre Dame is favored by 11. This lunch was the day after news broke that Brian Kelly had notified NBC that it should consider changing its commercial breaks to keep up with the pace of his newly-installed, high-speed offense. To most of us, this is just an interesting fact about the inner-workings of the college football-TV relationship. But to the sharps it was confirmation of what they had been reading and suspecting all offseason: Kelly is going to rip this team up and play his game, no matter what. "A new coach and a new system will have too many kinks to work out to cover this spread," said one of the guys.
"Come on," responded one. "Look at Notre Dame's recruiting classes the past five years; they are all in the top 10 in college football. There is not a dearth of talent there."
"We jumped on Kelly early at Central Michigan and he put money in our pockets. We jumped on Kelly early at Cincinnati and he put money in our pockets," went the argument for one sharp. "He's made us money. I'll keep jumping on him, and if I give some back because of that hunch that's OK. I'm still ahead."
Then he shrugged.
The longest debate occurred over UCLA-Kansas State. When this game opened, the Bruins were favored by 2.5 points. But as game day crept closer, it flipped and the Wildcats became 2.5-point favorites. That's a five-point swing crossing the pick 'em transom, which to the wiseguys represented a stadium full of opportunity. First, they discussed the why: It had less to do with Kansas State than with the litany of issues along UCLA's starting offensive line: Last year's left tackle, Xavier Su'a-Filo, had left school to do his Mormon mission; right tackle Mike Harris is suspended the first game; and, the biggest blow, center Kai Maiava fractured his ankle in an Aug. 21 scrimmage. UCLA will begin the year with one holdover from last year's starting unit.
Every wiseguy worth his bankroll will tell you the first factor they consider when betting college football is continuity and health along the offensive line. They grade the games the same way coaches do -- from the inside out. With every loss the Bruins' O-line suffered, the balance in the spread shifted a little more. Most of the guys at the table started buying the game when it hit pick in a "Piranha 3-D"-like frenzy. But a couple of guys waited until it was at K-State minus-2. Shame on them.
"You know better," said Fezzik. "That pick was out there, it sat for long enough to take it."
"It wasn't too late getting it at minus-2," said Teddy Covers, coming to one of his fellow wise guy's defense. "The goal is to beat the closing number. It's at 2.5 and may go higher. So he did that."
"No," said Fezzik. "The goal is to get the best number."
Teddy nodded, they agreed they were both right. But it illuminated another point that separates sharps from the rest of us. It has nothing to do with knowledge or systems or will or bankroll. It has to do with time and focus. They are at their desks tracking lines 12-15 hours a day. They may see pick 'em in UCLA-K-State while we're stuck in some meeting about how to use SAP. It will be gone before we've gotten through half the PowerPoint slides. That's because the sharps saw it and played it (at least most of them), leaving us with the worst of the number. We don't know less, we just pay attention less.
Not that the wiseguys are perfect.
Toward the end of lunch they started discussing the UNLV-Wisconsin game. It's being played in Las Vegas and, at that moment, the Badgers were 19-point favorites. There weren't many "passes" at the table on this one -- everyone was playing Wisconsin minus-19. This is a classic bet-on situation for squares visiting Vegas during college football's opening weekend. It pits a Top 25 team against bottom 25 team and, since it's the last game of the night, the day's losers are bound to chase their debt with one more play on a sure thing. "Put the 19 in your pocket now and you'll be able to buy back when it's plus-23 or plus 24," said one of the guys. "It's basic wagering 101."
"Hmmm," came a response from a sharp. "I've taken that course 20 times and I'm still flunking it."
At least he's got a roundtable to help him get smart.
This is the weekly wiseguy lunch. Around these tables, every theory, stat, number and maxim is debated in a language studded with so much betting lingo that, if the words were strung together end to end, they'd reach the top of the Stratosphere.
"It's no fluff, nothing personal," says Fezzik. "We just come in and get down to business."
The agenda every week is simple: After someone announces a game and the spread -- Kansas State minus-2.5 over UCLA -- the guys go around the table, say how they power-rated the game, if they bet it, at what price they got it or if they are passing. They run through both the college and pro schedules, talking about sides, first halves, money lines and totals. There's one guy who, whenever it's his turn, just announces his projected total for the game, blurting out digits like an auctioneer -- 59.6, 46.7, 64.2. Talking too much is a no-no, but if someone has a particularly smart theory or insight it gets shared, praised debated and knocked around.
It's the Vegas equivalent of Linux.
When I got there the tables were littered with plates of chili and salads and chicken club sandwiches, jug-sized glasses of iced tea and a library full of betting aides: Don Best booklets that list all the matchups for the season, college and pro, Phil Steele's college football annual, reams of paper that each guy had printed out with notes handwritten in the margin. Fezzik, sitting in the middle and facing the door, was the only guy with a laptop open. He was picking green grapes from a bag he had brought from home. The whole scene looked like a bunch of frat guys cramming for the final in a class taught by Lefty Rosenthal at the old Stardust.
This session was dedicated to breaking down Week 1 of college football. Lines for the games had been up for a while and most of the wiseguys rushed to get their piece as soon as they opened. But that didn't mean there weren't still some opportunities worth discussing -- or opinions to be dissed. Take the Texas-Rice game being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, which was listed as Texas minus-29. Rice is located in Houston, so one of the sharps, who power-rated the game with Rice as a 27-point underdog, said, "I'm giving them another point for being in their hometown, so I've got it at 26. I took Rice plus the 29."
"What?" another sharp said skeptically while peering over his glasses. "This game is still being played in Texas. There are going to be more Longhorn fans there than Rice fans. This is not a home game for Rice."
"Plus, Texas has won the past three games (since 2006) 52-7, 58-14 and 52-10," another chimed in. "And Rice's offense was supposed to be good in those years. It's not now."
Every game had a logic -- sometimes steeped in fact. When Syracuse-Akron was mentioned, Leonard brought up that he had read how Akron's defense had dominated its offense in spring practice, and that was one of the reasons he liked the under 43.5.
Other times the reasoning was steeped in random and intangible patterns or trends, the kind of ephemera the rest of us squares consider. Look at Notre Dame-Purdue, in which Notre Dame is favored by 11. This lunch was the day after news broke that Brian Kelly had notified NBC that it should consider changing its commercial breaks to keep up with the pace of his newly-installed, high-speed offense. To most of us, this is just an interesting fact about the inner-workings of the college football-TV relationship. But to the sharps it was confirmation of what they had been reading and suspecting all offseason: Kelly is going to rip this team up and play his game, no matter what. "A new coach and a new system will have too many kinks to work out to cover this spread," said one of the guys.
"Come on," responded one. "Look at Notre Dame's recruiting classes the past five years; they are all in the top 10 in college football. There is not a dearth of talent there."
"We jumped on Kelly early at Central Michigan and he put money in our pockets. We jumped on Kelly early at Cincinnati and he put money in our pockets," went the argument for one sharp. "He's made us money. I'll keep jumping on him, and if I give some back because of that hunch that's OK. I'm still ahead."
Then he shrugged.
The longest debate occurred over UCLA-Kansas State. When this game opened, the Bruins were favored by 2.5 points. But as game day crept closer, it flipped and the Wildcats became 2.5-point favorites. That's a five-point swing crossing the pick 'em transom, which to the wiseguys represented a stadium full of opportunity. First, they discussed the why: It had less to do with Kansas State than with the litany of issues along UCLA's starting offensive line: Last year's left tackle, Xavier Su'a-Filo, had left school to do his Mormon mission; right tackle Mike Harris is suspended the first game; and, the biggest blow, center Kai Maiava fractured his ankle in an Aug. 21 scrimmage. UCLA will begin the year with one holdover from last year's starting unit.
Every wiseguy worth his bankroll will tell you the first factor they consider when betting college football is continuity and health along the offensive line. They grade the games the same way coaches do -- from the inside out. With every loss the Bruins' O-line suffered, the balance in the spread shifted a little more. Most of the guys at the table started buying the game when it hit pick in a "Piranha 3-D"-like frenzy. But a couple of guys waited until it was at K-State minus-2. Shame on them.
"You know better," said Fezzik. "That pick was out there, it sat for long enough to take it."
"It wasn't too late getting it at minus-2," said Teddy Covers, coming to one of his fellow wise guy's defense. "The goal is to beat the closing number. It's at 2.5 and may go higher. So he did that."
"No," said Fezzik. "The goal is to get the best number."
Teddy nodded, they agreed they were both right. But it illuminated another point that separates sharps from the rest of us. It has nothing to do with knowledge or systems or will or bankroll. It has to do with time and focus. They are at their desks tracking lines 12-15 hours a day. They may see pick 'em in UCLA-K-State while we're stuck in some meeting about how to use SAP. It will be gone before we've gotten through half the PowerPoint slides. That's because the sharps saw it and played it (at least most of them), leaving us with the worst of the number. We don't know less, we just pay attention less.
Not that the wiseguys are perfect.
Toward the end of lunch they started discussing the UNLV-Wisconsin game. It's being played in Las Vegas and, at that moment, the Badgers were 19-point favorites. There weren't many "passes" at the table on this one -- everyone was playing Wisconsin minus-19. This is a classic bet-on situation for squares visiting Vegas during college football's opening weekend. It pits a Top 25 team against bottom 25 team and, since it's the last game of the night, the day's losers are bound to chase their debt with one more play on a sure thing. "Put the 19 in your pocket now and you'll be able to buy back when it's plus-23 or plus 24," said one of the guys. "It's basic wagering 101."
"Hmmm," came a response from a sharp. "I've taken that course 20 times and I'm still flunking it."
At least he's got a roundtable to help him get smart.
