Yesterday 3 0 0 +7.52 Units
Last 30 Days 41 37 0 +31.10 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 190 221 3 +33.68 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.61 over NY METS
Win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it and that’s really all the incentive needed to pull the trigger on the Astros. Bud Norris quietly has shown significant growth this year, particularly recently. In fact, few starters have been better since July 1 in terms of GB%/line drive%/FB%, which were 49%/13%/36% G/L/F. The key for him has been improved control, an area that he has shown gradual improvement all year. If he can sustain his recent GB tilt, his ceiling could be even higher because he has wicked movement on both his slider and fastball and his confidence is soaring. In five August starts covering 32.2 frames, Norris allowed just 26 hits for a BAA of .213. He struck out 31 and walked nine and one of those starts came against these Mets in Houston in which he allowed just two hits in seven IP. Since R.A. Dickey joined the Mets rotation on May 19th, he’s compiled an 8-5 record with a 2.64 ERA. Where the hell did that come from???!!! What is R.A. Dickey best known for? The fact that he was born without an ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm. You know ... that pesky little thing that pitchers often get replaced in a little surgery known as "Tommy John Surgery." The fact that Dickey can even throw a baseball is miraculous, let alone pitch in the majors. This guy throws a knuckleball 82% of the time and he’s never had success at this level for an extended period of time. He’s 35 and there’s a reason he’s spent most his career in the minors and has been on four different teams in the past five years. Yes, he’s having the time of his life but unfortunately he’s the only Mets player that can make that claim. The fact Dickey is this big a favorite over Norris and the still very warm Astros is ludicrous. Big overlay. Play: Houston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +2.02 over CINCINNATI
Travis Wood has been very good since he joined the Reds rotation back on July 1 but there’s a whole lot of concern for those thinking of laying this ridiculous price on him. First, he’s only pitched one of his 10 major-league starts at home and that’s a huge problem for a guy that has proven to be an elite fly-ball pitcher. In fact, Wood has a groundball rate of 28% and you won’t find a pitcher in the league with a rate lower than his. His fly-ball rate is an alarming 49% and as a result of this, much of his limited success this year can be attributed to good fortune. He’s also had a history of injury and that fact that he’s already up to 161 innings between the minors and majors this season is another reason for concern. Wood has allowed 12 runs in his last three starts and one of those came at Wrigley in which the Cubs scored four runs on him in six frames. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus changeup but it appears as though he’s running out of steam very quickly. The Cubbies will go with a rookie by the name of Casey Coleman. Coleman was Chicago's 15th rounder in 2008 out of Florida Gulf Coast University. At 23, he's the son and grandson of a couple of Joe Coleman’s who combined to win 194 big league games, so pitching is in his blood. He's only been a professional for three years, but already has full years in both Double- and Triple-A. When he's on, he'll induce plenty of ground balls with his sinking 89-92 MPH fastball. He’s only pitched 19 innings in the big leagues but is coming off a gem in Washington in which he three-hit the Nats in 6.1 innings. The most promising thing about Coleman is his elite GB rate. In those 19 innings he induced groundballs 53% of the time and although he’s certainly a risk, the fact is he’s an elite groundball pitcher going up against an elite fly-ball pitcher. At this park with that info, you would have to be out of your mind to lay –2.16 with Wood. Play: Chicago +2.02 (Risking 2 units).
Florida –1.04 over ATLANTA
Josh Johnson's performance says, "Ubaldo who"? Johnson has been struggling a bit recently with a 5.94 ERA over his last three starts but much of that can be attributed to a freakish 40% hit rate. Not to worry. Johnson’s performances has stacked up against the best of them ... even 1H pitching darling, Ubaldo Jimenez. This guy is truly in the elite category in every sense and when you can lay less than a nickel or dime on him against a pitcher of Derek Lowe’s caliber, just make the wager and live with the result because you’re chances of winning are high. Also note that the Marlins are playing extremely well with eight wins in its last 11 games and they’re relishing the role of the spoiler. Derek Lowe has a reputation for being solid and dependable and while that’s somewhat true, it’s not all true. Lowe’s skill set has been getting progressively worse for four years now. Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez torch Lowe. In fact, Uggla is 10-26 while Ramirez is an off the charts 12-24 against Lowe for a combined average, in a good sample size, of .443. Lowe struggles late in games and he’s also been miserable pitching from the stretch. He starts off looking fantastic. First time through lineups he has 57% GB rate and very good control. His skills erode the second time through lineups and they fall into a black hole after that. He has a 6.29 ERA and 1.89 WHIP the third time through lineups and could run into a whole lot of trouble here. Play: Florida –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 41 37 0 +31.10 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 190 221 3 +33.68 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Houston +1.61 over NY METS
Win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it and that’s really all the incentive needed to pull the trigger on the Astros. Bud Norris quietly has shown significant growth this year, particularly recently. In fact, few starters have been better since July 1 in terms of GB%/line drive%/FB%, which were 49%/13%/36% G/L/F. The key for him has been improved control, an area that he has shown gradual improvement all year. If he can sustain his recent GB tilt, his ceiling could be even higher because he has wicked movement on both his slider and fastball and his confidence is soaring. In five August starts covering 32.2 frames, Norris allowed just 26 hits for a BAA of .213. He struck out 31 and walked nine and one of those starts came against these Mets in Houston in which he allowed just two hits in seven IP. Since R.A. Dickey joined the Mets rotation on May 19th, he’s compiled an 8-5 record with a 2.64 ERA. Where the hell did that come from???!!! What is R.A. Dickey best known for? The fact that he was born without an ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm. You know ... that pesky little thing that pitchers often get replaced in a little surgery known as "Tommy John Surgery." The fact that Dickey can even throw a baseball is miraculous, let alone pitch in the majors. This guy throws a knuckleball 82% of the time and he’s never had success at this level for an extended period of time. He’s 35 and there’s a reason he’s spent most his career in the minors and has been on four different teams in the past five years. Yes, he’s having the time of his life but unfortunately he’s the only Mets player that can make that claim. The fact Dickey is this big a favorite over Norris and the still very warm Astros is ludicrous. Big overlay. Play: Houston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +2.02 over CINCINNATI
Travis Wood has been very good since he joined the Reds rotation back on July 1 but there’s a whole lot of concern for those thinking of laying this ridiculous price on him. First, he’s only pitched one of his 10 major-league starts at home and that’s a huge problem for a guy that has proven to be an elite fly-ball pitcher. In fact, Wood has a groundball rate of 28% and you won’t find a pitcher in the league with a rate lower than his. His fly-ball rate is an alarming 49% and as a result of this, much of his limited success this year can be attributed to good fortune. He’s also had a history of injury and that fact that he’s already up to 161 innings between the minors and majors this season is another reason for concern. Wood has allowed 12 runs in his last three starts and one of those came at Wrigley in which the Cubs scored four runs on him in six frames. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus changeup but it appears as though he’s running out of steam very quickly. The Cubbies will go with a rookie by the name of Casey Coleman. Coleman was Chicago's 15th rounder in 2008 out of Florida Gulf Coast University. At 23, he's the son and grandson of a couple of Joe Coleman’s who combined to win 194 big league games, so pitching is in his blood. He's only been a professional for three years, but already has full years in both Double- and Triple-A. When he's on, he'll induce plenty of ground balls with his sinking 89-92 MPH fastball. He’s only pitched 19 innings in the big leagues but is coming off a gem in Washington in which he three-hit the Nats in 6.1 innings. The most promising thing about Coleman is his elite GB rate. In those 19 innings he induced groundballs 53% of the time and although he’s certainly a risk, the fact is he’s an elite groundball pitcher going up against an elite fly-ball pitcher. At this park with that info, you would have to be out of your mind to lay –2.16 with Wood. Play: Chicago +2.02 (Risking 2 units).
Florida –1.04 over ATLANTA
Josh Johnson's performance says, "Ubaldo who"? Johnson has been struggling a bit recently with a 5.94 ERA over his last three starts but much of that can be attributed to a freakish 40% hit rate. Not to worry. Johnson’s performances has stacked up against the best of them ... even 1H pitching darling, Ubaldo Jimenez. This guy is truly in the elite category in every sense and when you can lay less than a nickel or dime on him against a pitcher of Derek Lowe’s caliber, just make the wager and live with the result because you’re chances of winning are high. Also note that the Marlins are playing extremely well with eight wins in its last 11 games and they’re relishing the role of the spoiler. Derek Lowe has a reputation for being solid and dependable and while that’s somewhat true, it’s not all true. Lowe’s skill set has been getting progressively worse for four years now. Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez torch Lowe. In fact, Uggla is 10-26 while Ramirez is an off the charts 12-24 against Lowe for a combined average, in a good sample size, of .443. Lowe struggles late in games and he’s also been miserable pitching from the stretch. He starts off looking fantastic. First time through lineups he has 57% GB rate and very good control. His skills erode the second time through lineups and they fall into a black hole after that. He has a 6.29 ERA and 1.89 WHIP the third time through lineups and could run into a whole lot of trouble here. Play: Florida –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
