Yesterday 0 3 0 -6.08 Units
Last 30 Days 40 38 0 +26.98 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 190 224 3 +27.60 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Pittsburgh +1.61 over CHICAGO
If the Pirates played the Cubs 162 times in a year they’d be right in the thick of this thing. In fact, the Cubs have lost 9 of 12 games to the Pirates and they’ve also lost 12 of its last 14 overall at Wrigley. Additionally, Chicago is just 9-18 this month and while the Pirates have lost 13 in a row on the road and they, too, have a horrible August record, laying big juice with the Cubbies is a giant risk that’s not worth taking. Maholm’s good start/bad start split is 31%/27% – occasional dominance, occasional disaster, but a whole lot of “meh” in-between. In fact, that pretty much sums up Maholm’s career – he’s consistent, but unspectacular. However, his strong groundball tendency means he could throw a strong game anytime and against the Cubs, at this price, it’s a gamble very worth taking. Incidentally, Maholm has gone 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts against Chicago this season and he’s 7-1 in 12 career starts against them. The volatile Carlos Zambrano will pitch his fifth game since being reinserted into the rotation following a June suspension. Zambrano is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in those four starts. That’s nice but Zambrano’s skills have taken a serious nosedive in each of the last three years and in no way is he and the Cubs to be trusted as an 8½-5 favorite over anyone. That sub 3.00 ERA in 27 IP in August came with very little skill support and a xERA of 4.78. Zambrano is not back and there’s nothing in his stats that suggest otherwise. Play: Pittsburgh +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis –1 +1.12 over HOUSTON
The “genius’s” experiment of batting the pitcher eighth is finally over. Anyway, some books allow you to lay a single run while others don’t but if you’re a smart/serious bettor you’ll have two or three sportsbooks that allow you different options. This is really an extremely favorable pitching matchup in favor of the Cards. Jake Westbrook not only has enjoyed a resurrection since his trade to STL, he also has been one of the game's best starters during the last month: great control, 66%/15%/19% GB/Line-drive/Fly-ball and a 152 BPV** (see explanation of BPV at the bottom of this page). He has a 176 BPV in August. His newfound elite skill set isn't likely to last, but his extreme GB profile and pinpoint control make him a good fit in the NL. Houston’s offense is averaging 50.2 at bats per homer this season, which is nearly five at bats more than second-worst Los Angeles and over 20 at bats more than first place Milwaukee (29.4). Figure that to continue here against groundball-inducing Westbrook. J.A. Happ is on a serious FLUKE ALERT. While his ERA is a very respectable 3.45, his xERA is nearly runs higher at 5.44 and xERA does not lie. Happ is also is an extreme flyball pitcher with control problems. Happ has been lucky with a high strand percentage but once those base-runners begin to score, his ERA will head south big time. Steer clear of Happ and don’t be fooled by his delusional ERA. Play: St. Louis –1 +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 40 38 0 +26.98 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 190 224 3 +27.60 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Pittsburgh +1.61 over CHICAGO
If the Pirates played the Cubs 162 times in a year they’d be right in the thick of this thing. In fact, the Cubs have lost 9 of 12 games to the Pirates and they’ve also lost 12 of its last 14 overall at Wrigley. Additionally, Chicago is just 9-18 this month and while the Pirates have lost 13 in a row on the road and they, too, have a horrible August record, laying big juice with the Cubbies is a giant risk that’s not worth taking. Maholm’s good start/bad start split is 31%/27% – occasional dominance, occasional disaster, but a whole lot of “meh” in-between. In fact, that pretty much sums up Maholm’s career – he’s consistent, but unspectacular. However, his strong groundball tendency means he could throw a strong game anytime and against the Cubs, at this price, it’s a gamble very worth taking. Incidentally, Maholm has gone 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts against Chicago this season and he’s 7-1 in 12 career starts against them. The volatile Carlos Zambrano will pitch his fifth game since being reinserted into the rotation following a June suspension. Zambrano is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in those four starts. That’s nice but Zambrano’s skills have taken a serious nosedive in each of the last three years and in no way is he and the Cubs to be trusted as an 8½-5 favorite over anyone. That sub 3.00 ERA in 27 IP in August came with very little skill support and a xERA of 4.78. Zambrano is not back and there’s nothing in his stats that suggest otherwise. Play: Pittsburgh +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis –1 +1.12 over HOUSTON
The “genius’s” experiment of batting the pitcher eighth is finally over. Anyway, some books allow you to lay a single run while others don’t but if you’re a smart/serious bettor you’ll have two or three sportsbooks that allow you different options. This is really an extremely favorable pitching matchup in favor of the Cards. Jake Westbrook not only has enjoyed a resurrection since his trade to STL, he also has been one of the game's best starters during the last month: great control, 66%/15%/19% GB/Line-drive/Fly-ball and a 152 BPV** (see explanation of BPV at the bottom of this page). He has a 176 BPV in August. His newfound elite skill set isn't likely to last, but his extreme GB profile and pinpoint control make him a good fit in the NL. Houston’s offense is averaging 50.2 at bats per homer this season, which is nearly five at bats more than second-worst Los Angeles and over 20 at bats more than first place Milwaukee (29.4). Figure that to continue here against groundball-inducing Westbrook. J.A. Happ is on a serious FLUKE ALERT. While his ERA is a very respectable 3.45, his xERA is nearly runs higher at 5.44 and xERA does not lie. Happ is also is an extreme flyball pitcher with control problems. Happ has been lucky with a high strand percentage but once those base-runners begin to score, his ERA will head south big time. Steer clear of Happ and don’t be fooled by his delusional ERA. Play: St. Louis –1 +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
