three tonight w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Washington +1.64 over FLORIDA
The Marlins bullpen is brutal to begin with and now that bullpen is completely overworked and in serious trouble. The Marlins staff has allowed 28 runs against in the past three games, all losses. They blew a 6-2 eighth inning lead on Sunday and subsequently got smoked last night 9-3 and were the first team this season to lose to Jason Marquis. Anibal Sanchez definitely has some upside. He’s thrown a bunch of very good games this year already and has 119 k’s to his credit in 153.1 innings of work. However, he only pitched 114 innings in ’06, 30 innings in ’07, 51.2 innings in ’08, 86 innings in ’09 and this year he’s over 150 innings. This is dangerous territory for Sanchez and fatigue is definitely a concern. He has a propensity for wildness and he was also hit very hard in his last start at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Jordan Zimmerman makes just his second start of the year after Tommy John surgery. He cruised through the first three innings in his first start before running into trouble but the best news is that he got that out of the way without any complications. Zimmerman posted a 31/7 K/BB in 39 IP in his rehab through the minors this year. He was a highly touted, up-and-coming young pitcher prior to his elbow injury, and he's still just 24 years old. He has enough upside to have a strong September if his arm holds up and at this price he’s worth the risk. Also note that the Nats have won four of five and has scored 40 runs over that five-game stretch. Play: Washington +1.64 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +1.09 over ARIZONA
Contrary to what some may believe, the Padres are not in choke mode. This is the first prolonged losing streak they’ve had all season and that’s a pretty remarkable run they’ve had to this point. Fact is, this is still the same team and they still have the league’s best bullpen whether it’s at home or on the road. These two hooked up last week in San Diego and the D-backs ripped apart Kevin Correia and that has many leaning heavily to the Snakes. Trouble is, the rematch seldom goes the same way and while Ian Kennedy struck out 12 and had everything going his way, this is a new day and a new circumstance. Correia still has a high groundball rate of 48% and while he’s erratic at times he’s most certainly a serviceable starter and after getting rocked last week, he’ll be much more focused this week, especially given the minor funk the team is in. It’s time for Correia to step it up a couple of notches. Ian Kennedy is a big part of the D-Backs future and we’re seeing teams that are out of it close down some of their future hopes. Kennedy is on a low pitch count and in fact, since the end of June they’ve been cautious with him. Remember, he only threw 24 innings all of last season. So, with that in mind, it’s worth noting that this is also a matchup of the league’s most successful bullpen (San Diego, 2.80 ERA) and its least successful (Arizona, 5.93 ERA). Play: San Diego +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago –1½ +1.24 over CLEVELAND
Edwin Jackson has some pretty mediocre surface stats, 4.67 ERA, 1.46 WHIP. But his skills have blossomed during the last month - 58%/11%/29% groundball%/line-drive%/fly-ball% to go along with a 128 BPV. Perhaps joining a pennant race for the South Side has sparked something. All season long the Indian offense has been erratic at best and lousy (11th in AL runs scored) at worst. Apart from a 15-4 blowout vs. KC, Cleveland has scored only 13 runs in the other eight of its last nine contests. Furthermore, the White Sox hitters are hot, leading the AL in runs scored this month and averaging 5.4 runs per contest. HR-deflating Progressive Field won’t help them, but an Indians pitching staff that has been among the AL’s worst might. Justin Masterson has shown a big decline over the past month with a xERA of 5.61. That’s serious and so is his strand rate of 76% over that same stretch. Man-Ram joins the South Side and if nothing else, hitters before him should see a few more juicy balls to swing at and when you break it all down, the Indians likely will get smoked again. They’re used to it already. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.24 (Risking 2 units).



Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
 

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