All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Cincinnati +1.20 over COLORADO
Bronson Arroyo has a 9-4 record on the road and what that means is when he starts on the road the Reds usually win. Arroyo is really having a good year although his skills aren’t as good as his stats. He puts a lot of balls in play and has a high strand rate but there is also a bunch of positive signs. Arroyo has elite control and in fact, has not walked a single batter in three straight starts covering 20 IP. His pitch count is very economical and as a result, he usually pitches deep into games. Arroyo had a great start against the Rocks back on July 16 and even if he gives up a few, the Reds are likely to score a few more. Aaron Cook is making his second start since coming off the DL. His first start back was a successful one but it came in San Diego. Now he’ll face an offense that is about 20 times more potent than the Padres in a park that has no soul and doesn’t give a rat’s ass who you are. Fact is, Cook was headed for the bullpen but that injury spared him for now. He’s walked 51 batters this year while striking out just 58 in 122 IP. Cook is hittable and he is constantly behind in the count. The Reds have faced Ubaldo Jiminez and Jhoulys Chacin in the first two games of this series and both those pitchers are tough as shoe leather. Cinci takes a huge step down in class after facing the stuff of those two aforementioned pitchers and thus, this one might appear in slow motion for them when facing Cook. Play: Cincinnati +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.16 over CHICAGO
The Astros have been pure gold for well over two months now, yet they continue to get very little respect from the books. Randy Wells and the Cubbies a favorite over Brett Myers and the Astros is ridiculous. Houston has won 13 of its last 17 games and they have the second best record in the majors since July 1. Myers has lasted at least six innings in all 28 of his starts—the longest streak in the majors since Curt Schilling’s run of 35 straight in 2002. He’s 5-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last 11 starts and he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three outings against the Cubs this year. Myers is also 7-0 with a 2.36 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cubbies and at Wrigley he’s 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four career starts there. Myers is feeling it and has been all year and the Astros are feeling it too. Meanwhile Randy Wells is a fragile pitcher with a confidence level that has to be in question. Every time he throws a decent game he gets rocked in the next. He was the loser in that 18-1 loss to the Brewers on August 2 and he was also the loser in the 16-5 loss to the Braves on Aug 22. He’s also been whacked in two other starts since then. In August and September, Wells has a BAA of .325. In two starts vs the Astros this season, he’s 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and a BAA of .311. To make matters worse, his control has shown a sharp decline over the past month in which he’s walked 18 batters and struck out 24 in 36 IP. Play: Houston +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +1.60 over San Francisco
Seriously, what chance does Barry Zito have at this park? We’ve been preaching Zito’s good fortune all season and it’s finally caught up to him. Zito has faded badly, with four consecutive disasters, failing to make it past the fifth inning in any of those last four starts. Zito faced these D-Backs in San Fran just two starts ago and was thumped to the tune of nine runs in 3.2 innings. He also walked five batters in that start before he was mercifully lifted. Yes folks, the old Zito is back. In his last start vs the feeble Dodgers he walked four on the night, with a two-run single by L.A. pitcher Chad Billingsley being the crushing blow. In his last six appearances, Zito's K/BB sits at an ugly 13/14 in 23.2 innings and he’s lost his last seven decisions. Daniel Hudson was fantastic in 44 IP during August with pure dominance, great control and a 122 BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). Hudson does not suffer from any LH/RH splits either. LH batters have a .630 OPS against him, while RH batters have managed a .641 OPS and that’s almost as strong as it gets. What were the White Sox thinking when they let this guy get away? This is a guy that shot up through the minor-league system and in fact, pitched at all three levels (A, AA, AAA) in one season. Having said that, this one is all about playing against Zito and it sure doesn’t hurt to have Hudson on our side. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.36 over L.A. ANGELS
Scott Kazmir's disaster season continues. Kazmir and the Angels hoped that a four-week rest to recover from "shoulder fatigue" might help to re-set his season. Though his 3.80 ERA during that time is an improvement, his 5.84 xERA and -28 BPV over that time discount any real gains. Once coveted as a hard-throwing lefty with game-changing stuff, Kazmir is in the midst of a four-year slide. His xERA is on a steady rise and now has been more than 5.00 two years running. Kazmir’s skills are in freefall mode. With control an ever-present problem, he's now barely striking out more than he's walked. Early in his career, he had a slight groundball tilt that has reversed itself in recent seasons. HR’s allowed are now a consistent problem. Because of his high walk totals, Kazmir has always struggled to go deep into games. He's only had two starts this season in which he lasted past the 6th inning. Though he's still just 26, this looks like a case where it really is as bad as it seems. Though there's still time to provide some hope for 2011 with a good September, one wonders if he'll even get that chance. The Angels have dropped 15 of its last 21 games and offer up nothing but heartache as a favorite. This team called it quits a month ago and can’t wait for the season to end. The Tribe have won two in a row and four of six. The Angels have never faced Josh Tomlin. Tomlin’s skills are mediocre at best but he did have some success vs the Jays, Red Sox and Yanks in his first three major league starts and that’s a helluva way to begin your career. The best part of his game is that he throws strikes and has a very good chance for success against an uninterested Halo squad. However, this one is all about taking back a tag against a horrible combination of the Angels and Kazmir. Play: Cleveland +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Cincinnati +1.20 over COLORADO
Bronson Arroyo has a 9-4 record on the road and what that means is when he starts on the road the Reds usually win. Arroyo is really having a good year although his skills aren’t as good as his stats. He puts a lot of balls in play and has a high strand rate but there is also a bunch of positive signs. Arroyo has elite control and in fact, has not walked a single batter in three straight starts covering 20 IP. His pitch count is very economical and as a result, he usually pitches deep into games. Arroyo had a great start against the Rocks back on July 16 and even if he gives up a few, the Reds are likely to score a few more. Aaron Cook is making his second start since coming off the DL. His first start back was a successful one but it came in San Diego. Now he’ll face an offense that is about 20 times more potent than the Padres in a park that has no soul and doesn’t give a rat’s ass who you are. Fact is, Cook was headed for the bullpen but that injury spared him for now. He’s walked 51 batters this year while striking out just 58 in 122 IP. Cook is hittable and he is constantly behind in the count. The Reds have faced Ubaldo Jiminez and Jhoulys Chacin in the first two games of this series and both those pitchers are tough as shoe leather. Cinci takes a huge step down in class after facing the stuff of those two aforementioned pitchers and thus, this one might appear in slow motion for them when facing Cook. Play: Cincinnati +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.16 over CHICAGO
The Astros have been pure gold for well over two months now, yet they continue to get very little respect from the books. Randy Wells and the Cubbies a favorite over Brett Myers and the Astros is ridiculous. Houston has won 13 of its last 17 games and they have the second best record in the majors since July 1. Myers has lasted at least six innings in all 28 of his starts—the longest streak in the majors since Curt Schilling’s run of 35 straight in 2002. He’s 5-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last 11 starts and he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three outings against the Cubs this year. Myers is also 7-0 with a 2.36 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cubbies and at Wrigley he’s 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four career starts there. Myers is feeling it and has been all year and the Astros are feeling it too. Meanwhile Randy Wells is a fragile pitcher with a confidence level that has to be in question. Every time he throws a decent game he gets rocked in the next. He was the loser in that 18-1 loss to the Brewers on August 2 and he was also the loser in the 16-5 loss to the Braves on Aug 22. He’s also been whacked in two other starts since then. In August and September, Wells has a BAA of .325. In two starts vs the Astros this season, he’s 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and a BAA of .311. To make matters worse, his control has shown a sharp decline over the past month in which he’s walked 18 batters and struck out 24 in 36 IP. Play: Houston +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +1.60 over San Francisco
Seriously, what chance does Barry Zito have at this park? We’ve been preaching Zito’s good fortune all season and it’s finally caught up to him. Zito has faded badly, with four consecutive disasters, failing to make it past the fifth inning in any of those last four starts. Zito faced these D-Backs in San Fran just two starts ago and was thumped to the tune of nine runs in 3.2 innings. He also walked five batters in that start before he was mercifully lifted. Yes folks, the old Zito is back. In his last start vs the feeble Dodgers he walked four on the night, with a two-run single by L.A. pitcher Chad Billingsley being the crushing blow. In his last six appearances, Zito's K/BB sits at an ugly 13/14 in 23.2 innings and he’s lost his last seven decisions. Daniel Hudson was fantastic in 44 IP during August with pure dominance, great control and a 122 BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). Hudson does not suffer from any LH/RH splits either. LH batters have a .630 OPS against him, while RH batters have managed a .641 OPS and that’s almost as strong as it gets. What were the White Sox thinking when they let this guy get away? This is a guy that shot up through the minor-league system and in fact, pitched at all three levels (A, AA, AAA) in one season. Having said that, this one is all about playing against Zito and it sure doesn’t hurt to have Hudson on our side. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.36 over L.A. ANGELS
Scott Kazmir's disaster season continues. Kazmir and the Angels hoped that a four-week rest to recover from "shoulder fatigue" might help to re-set his season. Though his 3.80 ERA during that time is an improvement, his 5.84 xERA and -28 BPV over that time discount any real gains. Once coveted as a hard-throwing lefty with game-changing stuff, Kazmir is in the midst of a four-year slide. His xERA is on a steady rise and now has been more than 5.00 two years running. Kazmir’s skills are in freefall mode. With control an ever-present problem, he's now barely striking out more than he's walked. Early in his career, he had a slight groundball tilt that has reversed itself in recent seasons. HR’s allowed are now a consistent problem. Because of his high walk totals, Kazmir has always struggled to go deep into games. He's only had two starts this season in which he lasted past the 6th inning. Though he's still just 26, this looks like a case where it really is as bad as it seems. Though there's still time to provide some hope for 2011 with a good September, one wonders if he'll even get that chance. The Angels have dropped 15 of its last 21 games and offer up nothing but heartache as a favorite. This team called it quits a month ago and can’t wait for the season to end. The Tribe have won two in a row and four of six. The Angels have never faced Josh Tomlin. Tomlin’s skills are mediocre at best but he did have some success vs the Jays, Red Sox and Yanks in his first three major league starts and that’s a helluva way to begin your career. The best part of his game is that he throws strikes and has a very good chance for success against an uninterested Halo squad. However, this one is all about taking back a tag against a horrible combination of the Angels and Kazmir. Play: Cleveland +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
