This is tough to wrap my head around and I'd appreciate some advice from someone more familiar with line moves. There are several games today where one team has 75% to 90% of the public money and yet the lines still show that team as a dog. For example, the Astros are getting 84% of the money but they're still +109 dogs. To me, this indicates fading the public is the right way to go...if I based wagering simply on the line movement (or lack of it). And if I'm not wrong about this too, let's say for example that 85% of the public money is on Milwaukee who's playing St. Louis (just an example). Let's say that 90% of the money is on St. Louis but the line seems pretty short...only -120 for St. Louis. To me, this would indicate that Milwaukee is the play. Am I reading these correctly? Appreciate feedback from those who have been at it a lot longer than I have.
But many people do following just what you said...
