MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Week 23 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis) +210.00 Units on season!

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MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 96-87 (+210.05 Units)



Thursday, September 9



Chicago White Sox ML -124 (10 Units)

You have to trust the White Sox against right handed pitchers and having lost two of the first three games of this series you have to believe it is now an urgency to win this fourth game. The White Sox have dropped to 5.5 games out of first place in the AL Central Division and another loss this afternoon could pretty end their hopes of making the post-season, hopes that looked so good only a month ago before the Sox had to start playing against the Twins so much. Detroit on the other hand is pretty much done for 2010 as they sit 13.0 games back in the Division and some 14 or 15 games back in the Wild Card but they have played better baseball as of late which is encouraging for their fans. Gavin Floyd is on the mound for Chicago in this one and despite struggling at times this season he is 2-1 in his last three starts with an ERA of 2.29 and a WHIP of 1.32 in those games and more importantly the team is 2-1. Rick Porcello is on the mound for Detroit and he has also been rock solid going 3-0 in his last three starts but his ERA in day games this season is 5.14 and his WHIP is 1.49 in those games so unless the Detroit offense finds a way to generate some runs in this one off Floyd, who has been hot, it's going to be a long afternoon for Porcello and the Tigers. Chicago is 10-1 in their last 11 games played on a Thursday and they have won 7 of Floyd's last 9 starts as a favorite. Detroit on the other hand is 10-21 in their last 31 games as an underdog, they are 2-6 in their last eight as a home underdog and only 1-4 in Porcello's last five starts versus the White Sox. Chicago is actually 8-2 in Gavin Floyd's last 10 starts against the Tigers and the only way to keep the season alive is with a win in this game.

Trend of the Game: Chicago is 10-1 in their last 11 Thursday games.


Chicago 5, Detroit 4





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Thursday, September 9



Colorado Rockies ML -130 (10 Units)

Favorites are not really my things but something else I have learned this MLB season is that going against Colorado at home makes absolutely no sense and I am not about to start doing it now. I was on the Rockies to beat the Reds yesterday and I will be on them again as they go for the four game series sweep. Right now the problem with betting on Cincinnati is that they are sitting pretty with a 6.0 game lead in the NL Central and there is no sense of urgency when it comes to winning because it doesn't look like the St. Louis Cardinals are going to challenge them. The Reds starters have an ERA of 5.13 over the span of their last 10 games which is a big concern and they have to keep facing a red hot Colorado team that now finds themselves only 4.5 games back in the NL West and only 4.5 games back in the NL Wild Card. Travis Wood has pitched well for the Reds this season in his rookie campaign as a mid-season call up but things are quickly falling apart. He is 1-1 in his last three starts with an ERA of 5.62 and a WHIP of 1.81 and believe me Coors Field is not the place to fix your mechanics. The Reds are 5-1 in his six day time starts this season but Woods has struggled in his last three and I can't trust him. Colorado sends Jason Hammel to the mound who is 2-0 in his last three starts (the team is 3-0 in those starts) with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.42 while getting 7.0 runs of support per start. I have to give it to Cincinnati backers in this game. Woods has won in this situation on the road all season long but the kid just doesn't have it in recent starts and believe me when I say that Coors Field, pitching here for the first time against a surging opponent, is not the best of places for him right now. Colorado is an impressive 13-4 in their last 17 Game 4 situations and they have now won 38 of their last 53 home games and beat 32 of their last 47 left handed starters. The Rockies are also 5-0 in Jason Hammel's last five starts as a favorite and an incredible 10-1 in his last 11 starts versus NL Central Division teams. Colorado has been cash money all season as a home favorite with Hammel on the mound where they have won 17 of their last 22 in the situation. Cincinnati has won only 6 of their last 28 games in Colorado and I smell a sweep.

Trend of the Game: Colorado is 10-1 in Jason Hammel's last 11 starts versus NL Central opponents.


Colorado 7, Cincinnati 2





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Thursday, September 9


Toronto Blue Jays ML +104 (10 Units)

You have to really respect the Toronto Blue Jays for being five games above .500 right now playing in the AL East where they have to face Tampa Bay, the NY Yankees and Boston about 20 times per season. They have managed consistency for once in a season but again it won't be enough to crack the post-season roster in 2010 and I don't know that they have what it takes to do it in the next five seasons to be honest. Nonetheless, this team continues to come out every single night and put themselves in a position to win. They won the first two games of this series before losing last night and the advantage of betting against Texas right now is that they hold a solid lead in the AL West and are under no threat really from Oakland or the Los Angeles Angels and they are another one of those teams playing without a sense of urgency. Colby Lewis is on the mound for Texas tonight and he has allowed 14 ER's in his last two starts lasting only 3.2 innings at Minnesota last weekend and allowing 9 ER's in that game. He is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 9.77 and a WHIP of 1.79 and he has allowed 4 Home Runs along the way. Lewis has lost three of his four career starts against the Blue Jays. On the mound for Toronto is Shawn Hill, a Toronto native, who has spent most of his career in the National League. He has pitched very well at the AAA level with Las Vegas this season and after going 6 innings of two hit ball in his last start in the minors allowing 0 ER's and striking out 4, the Blue Jays thought it would be time to give him a shot at pitching in his hometown. Keep in mind that Texas is 3-13 in their last 16 road games versus a team with a winning record at home. They are also 1-8 in their last nine games as a road underdog and 1-9 as an underdog in general. They are also 2-11 in Colby Lewis' last 13 starts versus a team with a winning record and they are 0-5 in his last five road starts. Toronto on the other hand is always a solid home wager and they have won four of their last five versus a right handed starter. Texas is only 1-7 in their last eight games played in Toronto and Hill should win his home debut.

Trend of the Game: Texas is 2-11 in Colby Lewis' last 13 games versus a team with a winning record on the season.


Toronto 6, Texas 4





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Thursday, September 9



St. Louis Cardinals ML -111 (10 Units)

The Cardinals come into this very important series having two of three against the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this week and now the sense of urgency to win is bigger than ever. This is do or die this weekend for the Cardinals because if they can't win this series against the Braves they can pretty much kiss post-season chances goodbye. St. Louis is 6.0 games behind the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central right now and they are 6.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the Wild Card, a lead that can be cut down to as little as 2.5 games after this weekend. This is certainly a team capable of getting the job done. Atlanta also has to keep winning as they are 0.5 games behind Philadelphia for first place in the NL East and they would prefer to win the division as opposed to the Wild Card. The Cardinals are batting .188 in their last 10 games and at some point the hitting has to come around. Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals tonight and he has been atrocious his last three starts going 0-3 with an ERA of 5.29 and a WHIP of 1.65 in those starts. This is a guy with 17 wins on the season and he is struggling big time right now but his team has never needed him like they need him now and based on the type of season Wainwright is having I think he can pull through. He has been tremendous away from home all season with an ERA of 31.5 and a WHIP of 1.14. On the mound for Atlanta is Jair Jurrjens who has also struggled in his last three starts going 2-0 but with an ERA of 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.61. He is luck that the Braves have supported him with their bats but like we have seen before, Wainwright has the ability to paralyze opposing team's offenses and if he does that tonight, Jurrjens will get rocked for a loss. St. Louis has always been an enticing Game 1 wager because they have won 51 of their last 73 Game 1's in a series. They are 4-1 in Wainwright's last five Game 1 situations and right now the idea is to have him pitch the way he has pitched all season against a road opponent that is also competing for a spot in the post-season. If he can't do that and the team can't support him in this spot then they don't deserve to make the post-season. Atlanta has lost four of their last five Game 1 of a series and despite all their success in 2010 winning with Jurrjens on the mound at home they have won only 5 of his last 18 starts versus NL Central opponents and Jurrjens is probably going to have problems keeping this Cardinals lineup in check. St. Louis is 5-0 the last five times Adam Wainwright has pitched against the Braves and it's time to break his streak.

Trend of the Game: St. Louis is 51-22 in their last 73 Game 1 of a series.


St. Louis 3, Atlanta 1





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Thursday, September 9



San Francisco Giants ML -101 (10 Units)





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This Week: 3-2 (+7.60 Units)


See you all tomorrow! The units keep piling up on the season with no end in sight. It's almost playoffs time where the real money is made in baseball.
 

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Friday, September 10



Washington Nationals ML -108 (10 Units)

Something has to give between two teams struggling to win. Neither one of these two ball clubs is making the 2010 MLB Baseball Playoffs and it's somewhat of a shame because they both have a ton of talent and I expect both to compete in years to come. Having said that, Washington is coming off a home series loss to the New York Mets earlier this week and Florida is coming off a road series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies as they dropped three of four games in that series. Hanley Ramirez will probably miss another game with a sore back from being hit by a pitch. Gaby Sanchez is out again as he serves his suspension and the Marlins are somewhat depleted coming into this game. Florida came to Washington earlier in August and swept the Nats in a three gamer so believe me when I say that Washington has not interest in that happening again. On the mound for the Marlins is Alejandro Sanabia who has made 8 starts so far in 2010 and his team is 6-2 in those starts. Having said that he has struggled in his his last two starts and has an ERA of 5.82 and a WHIP of 1.18 while allowing 11 ER's in 17.0 innings pitched. John Lannan is on the mound for Washington and he has been the complete opposite in this last three starts as the team is 2-1 and he has an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.07. Sanabia faced the Nationals twice this season (at home mind you) and allowed 4 runs against them in a 9-3 loss only a few weeks ago. Lannan is coming off two gems, one against the Cardinals at home and the other in Pittsburgh and his two career home starts against Florida have been Quality Starts where he has allowed only 3 ER's in 12.1 innings pitched and has recorded 14 strikeouts. Without some of their big name players in the lineup the Marlins should struggle. I would love to back Florida who have pounded lefties away from home all season but I can't do it. They are only 1-5 in their last six road games and only 5-12 coming off a loss the game before. Washington are on fire lately with John Lannan on the mound as they have won 5 of his last 6 starts and they are also 4-0 in his last four Friday starts whatever that means. This is a series that has always been dominated by the Marlins but Washington is starting to catch up, these two teams are pretty even and I have to with Lannan who has proved himself at this level. Washington should get it done.

Trend of the Game: Washington is 5-1 in John Lannan's last six starts.


Washington 8, Florida 5





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Friday, September 10



Tampa Bay Rays ML +119 (10 Units)

This is almost a gift if you ask me. We are down to the final three weeks of the regular season and this is when things start to get serious. Tampa Bay is on the verge of falling more than three games back in the AL East Division and even though they have a solid lead on the American League Wild Card coming into this weekend series with the Blue Jays, I'm sure they understand the importance of winning out on the season and playing well down the stretch. The Rays come into this series having lost four of their last five games and four of their last six on this road trip. For a team that has the best regular season AWAY record that once again is not going to cut it. The Blue Jays dropped the last two games of a four game set against the Texas Rangers this week and now they have another AL East opponent in line. The problem I have with these two teams is that their hitting has been mediocre the last two weeks and their pitching has been horrendous. James Shields is on the mound and he has been terrible although the team is 2-1 in his last three starts despite a 5.82 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in those starts. What you have to appreciate about Shields is that he has allowed only 1 HR in his last three starts which is 17.0 innings of work. Shields had put together three consecutive Quality Starts prior to allowing 6 ER's against Baltimore last weekend and he has definitely been pitching better. He got lit up for 8 ER's and 6 HR's in his last start in Toronto and now that he seems to be keeping the ball down I think he'll do a lot better. Brett Cecil is on the mound for the Blue Jays and he has been great. 9 of his last 10 starts have been Quality Starts but he has pitched a lot better on the road than at home which is a bit of a concern. This is now the fifth time he starts against Tampa Bay in 2010 and the team is 3-1 in those starts and he has allowed more than 2 ER's only one time. What has me enticed is the fact that Tampa Bay have won 28 of their last 40 versus left handed starters and they are 4-1 in James Shields last five starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. It's a tough decision to go against Cecil at home and against AL East opponents because he has dominated them all season long but Tampa Bay needs to get their acts into gear and this is a good time to do it. The Jays bullpen will probably blow this one.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 28-12 in their last 40 games versus left handed starters.


Tampa Bay 4, Toronto 3





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Friday, September 10



Houston Astros ML -101 (10 Units)

What's left to play for in this game? Absolutely nothing with both teams closing in on identical records and both teams pretty much eliminated from any possibility of playing in the post-season. What I do know however is that the Houston Astros are making a season out of this as they have won 8 of their last 10 games, a stretch that has seen their pitching staff put together an impressive 2.65 ERA as a group despite no longer having Roy Oswalt on this team. They have also managed to hit .263 in those games while the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have gone 2-8 in their last 10 games, are hitting only .199 during that same stretch of games despite their pitching staff holding it down for them. The Astros won the opener last night and come into this series having won three straight series so you have to believe they are going to win at least two of these next three against the Dodgers. Hiroki Kuroda is on the mound for the Dodgers and he has been great his last three starts striking out 21 and going 2-1 in those starts. However, he is not the same pitcher on the road where his ERA is 3.69 and his WHIP 1.23 and where the team is only 5-7 when he starts. Kuroda has won three of his four career starts against Houston but he had run support in those starts and the Dodgers just can't hit for their lives in recent games. J.A. Happ gets the call for the Astros in this one and he is the real deal breaker in that trade of Roy Oswalt. Happ is a prospect that was shopped around for quite some time and he is just now proving his worth as he is 3-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.61 and a WHIP of 0.81 during that stretch where he beat Philadelphia, St. Louis and Arizona. Happ has now put together 6 straight Quality Starts and his team is 7-4 this season when he is the starter. Happ is really making a name for himself since that trade and he should continue to dominate weak hitting opponents the way he has been doing since being traded here back in July. In his four home starts for Houston, Happ has allowed only 3 ER's in 27.1 innings of work and he has thrown two shutouts. The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five road games versus a left-handed starter, they are 0-5 in their last five games coming off a loss, they have lost six straight games now and despite Kuroda being one of their pitchers and dominating NL Central opponents the last few years, I just can't back a team that does not support their starters and the Dodgers are 1-5 in Kuroda's last six road starts. Houston on the other hand is 15-2 in their last 17 games coming off a game where their opponent scored 2 or less runs, they are 5-0 in their last five Game 2 situations of a series, they are 13-3 in their last 16 games as an underdog and they have won 16 of their last 21 home games. The way things have been going for these two teams it just doesn't make any sense to go against Houston and J.A. Happ who has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball the last month or so. I think Houston continues to win.

Trend of the Game: Houston is 13-3 in their last 16 games as an underdog.


Houston 6, LA Dodgers 1





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Friday, September 10



Chicago Cubs ML +105 (10 Units)

Not the most ideal of ball clubs to bet on but the Chicago Cubs had been playing much better baseball as of late before running into the hottest team in the Major Leagues earlier this week, the Houston Astros and because of that series they come into Milwaukee having lost three of their last four games. You also have to appreciate the fact that the Cubs are hitting .305 over the course of their last 10 games and although their pitching staff has struggled, they have put themselves in a position to win baseball games and that should be no different in this one. Milwaukee on the other hand is coming off an impressive home series win over the St. Louis Cardinals but they had lost five of their last six games coming into that series and are only 4-6 in their last 10 games. Since being suspended earlier this season for his on-field and club house tirade, Carlos Zambrano has come back a new man and this time he is for real. The Cubs are 4-2 in his six starts since his return and three of those six starts have been Quality Starts as Zambrano has not allowed more than 2 ER's in any of the six starts. He is 3-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.37 and a WHIP of 1.02 in those games while allowing only 3 ER's in 19.2 innings of work and beating Pittsburgh, Washington and the NY Mets during that stretch. Believe it or not Zambrano has won his last four starts in Milwaukee. On the mound for Milwaukee tonight is Dave Bush who has been horrendous all season long as the Brewers are 10-17 in his 27 starts this season. In his last three starts he has an ERA of 5.21 and a WHIP of 1.42 and despite pitching well his last two times out, I think the Brewers have already checked out on him this season. In his two home starts against the Cubs this season Bush has allowed 11 ER's, 16 hits and lost by a combined score of 16-7 while pitching only 9.2 innings combined. He has lost his last three home starts against the Cubs. Chicago has been a tremendous team to bet on coming off a loss as they are 6-1 in their last seven and they are also 8-2 in their last 10 road games versus a team with a losing record on the season. I have always said that if you are going to back Carlos Zambrano make sure you do it on the road as the Cubs have won 50 of his last 74 road starts and that's impressive. Milwaukee is only 2-5 in their last seven games versus a right handed starter, they are only 1-4 in their last five Game 1 situations in a series and they are 0-6 in Dave Bush's last six starts coming off a Quality Start in his previous start. Chicago has won five straight games in Milwaukee when Zambrano is on the mound and the Brewers are 3-11 in Dave Bush's last 14 starts versus the Cubs. I think this one is a no-brainer.

Trend of the Game: Milwaukee is 0-6 in Dave Bush's last six starts coming off a Quality Start.


Chicago 9, Milwaukee 3





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WIth you on the cubs, but like the jays today. Cecil actually has a better home era than road era, 3.63 at home and 3.84 away.
 

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Friday, September 10



Boston Red Sox ML -105 (10 Units)

San Francisco Giants ML +106 (10 Units)






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