Yesterday 2 2 0 +1.52 Units
Last 30 Days 42 38 0 +32.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 201 238 3 +28.08 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
COLORADO –1½ +1.56 over Cincinnati
Note the 3:10 PM EST start. The Rockies are red hot with six wins in a row and 12 wins in its last 16. The Rocks have also shredded the Reds in the first three games of this four-game set and have now outscored them 23-10. The Rocks also have a big edge on the hill with Jason Hammel over Travis Wood. Wood has been living a charmed life. He has very good numbers that include a BAA of .212 an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP if 1.09. However, Wood has also faced some weak hitting line-ups recently that include the Cards, the Cubbies twice and the Pirates. What’s most concerning about Woods is that he’s an elite fly-ball pitcher with a 48%/31% FB/GB ratio. He has a 0.7 HR/9 rate and with such a high fly-ball rate that number is simply unsustainable. Wood also has an xERA of 5.24 over his last five starts and there’s a strong chance his luck will run out against this hot-hitting host. By contrast, Jason Hammel has a GB rate of 46% and over his last five starts that rate is exactly the same at 46%. He induces groundballs and he induces them often. That alone gives him a big edge and when you throw in the current state of mind of these two combatants, one has to give the Rockies a big edge right across the board. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.05 over SAN DIEGO
John Garland favored over Matt Cain? Are you kidding? Win or lose here, you can rest assured you’re going with the best of it. Garland has posted impressive 31-day surface stats (2.15 ERA) but xERA over that stretch of 4.44 tells us, as it always does, that he’s a fluke. Garland keeps walking guys, he keeps falling behind in counts and aside from experience, he does not offer up much more. Garland is fourth in the NL in walks issued with 77. Meanwhile, Matt Cain is the straight goods and he’s hot. Cain has walked one batter in six of his last seven games and in the other game he walked two. Unlike Garland, he throws strikes and is constantly ahead in the count. Cain has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 games. In addition, the Giants offense is stronger than the Padres and while the Padres are so tough at home, they have zero advantage in this contest and should not be favored. Play: San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 42 38 0 +32.14 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 201 238 3 +28.08 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
COLORADO –1½ +1.56 over Cincinnati
Note the 3:10 PM EST start. The Rockies are red hot with six wins in a row and 12 wins in its last 16. The Rocks have also shredded the Reds in the first three games of this four-game set and have now outscored them 23-10. The Rocks also have a big edge on the hill with Jason Hammel over Travis Wood. Wood has been living a charmed life. He has very good numbers that include a BAA of .212 an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP if 1.09. However, Wood has also faced some weak hitting line-ups recently that include the Cards, the Cubbies twice and the Pirates. What’s most concerning about Woods is that he’s an elite fly-ball pitcher with a 48%/31% FB/GB ratio. He has a 0.7 HR/9 rate and with such a high fly-ball rate that number is simply unsustainable. Wood also has an xERA of 5.24 over his last five starts and there’s a strong chance his luck will run out against this hot-hitting host. By contrast, Jason Hammel has a GB rate of 46% and over his last five starts that rate is exactly the same at 46%. He induces groundballs and he induces them often. That alone gives him a big edge and when you throw in the current state of mind of these two combatants, one has to give the Rockies a big edge right across the board. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.05 over SAN DIEGO
John Garland favored over Matt Cain? Are you kidding? Win or lose here, you can rest assured you’re going with the best of it. Garland has posted impressive 31-day surface stats (2.15 ERA) but xERA over that stretch of 4.44 tells us, as it always does, that he’s a fluke. Garland keeps walking guys, he keeps falling behind in counts and aside from experience, he does not offer up much more. Garland is fourth in the NL in walks issued with 77. Meanwhile, Matt Cain is the straight goods and he’s hot. Cain has walked one batter in six of his last seven games and in the other game he walked two. Unlike Garland, he throws strikes and is constantly ahead in the count. Cain has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 games. In addition, the Giants offense is stronger than the Padres and while the Padres are so tough at home, they have zero advantage in this contest and should not be favored. Play: San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
